Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus
going along with the aggressive trade strategy i will trade out JPK but not sure who to, i have 628k and have Beams, Pendles, Fyfe, Danger, Wines and Gray. who do you think would be the best mid to get for that price? I was thinking Lewis based on his dominance in the 2nd half of last year

After that I was going to trade out bontempelli at about round 15 after bulldogs have finished their easy run of games, to Sidebottom as a premo POD whilst also upgrading Wallis probably around that time.

Do you think this is a good strategy from here on in?

Hi lakb24,
given who you have already, and you probably want a Rnd 11 Mid, then Lewis looks the pick.
If you didn't need a Rnd 11, and didn't have Gray/Wines, I would be looking at Ebert. But you do, so we can't.
The rest of the plan sounds good, too. I wish I was in a position to be Trading out the likes of Bont and Wallis, but I'm stuck with holding some value picks, after burning too many injury/corrective trades.
Good luck, I hope you keep climbing up that Rankings ladder!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Thoughts on Parker as a bit of a POD premium MID to finish the year with??
I was at the Swans game on Saturday night and thought he was brilliant, looked like he was back to his 2014 form. Crashing packs and running everywhere.
At $540K I am thinking I might be better off getting him in round 13 instead of Sidey and wait until Sidey drops more due to his high BE.

At the moment, in round 12 I'm thinking,

Saad --> Hamling
Newnes --> Houli
Leaving me with $301,700

EDIT: And in addition to Parker, do you think Danger is overpriced?? Looking at him, but think he is overpriced and not enough of a POD to get my ranking back up?? Or do you disagree?
So really, I need to fill 3 MID premium spots (that includes shipping out Cripps), who should I get, atm looking at Parker, Sidey, Danger, Rocky, Sloane, Selwood

Cheers Goodie

I'm not sure I'm on board with trading Newnes out.
He's averaged 88.6 with Weller in the team, and his last 5 scores with Weller playing are: 87, 95, 92, 113, 103 - Ave 98.
Parker is a good player, but he showed last season, that he can struggle to average 110+ with competition in the team. I think he can play to his price, which is around 108. I think you're right, and he's definitely better value on a points/dollar basis than Danger. Danger is priced at around 126, I have doubts he can play to that level for the rest of the season.
I was a big Sidey fan, but agree it would be madness to get him right now. Take the opportunity to assess him further, while his price decreases. The problem might be, a lot of the players you are looking need a few weeks for one reason or another, in that sense, Parker might be a good pick! I wouldn't take Selwood until we something more positive. He's played one Selwood-like quarter in the 5 or 6 Rounds.

 

[Johnsy44]

Hey Johnsy,
I think Thompson will return more points than he's priced at, which is about 98, but I have doubts he'll be in the top 12 Mids from here. Still, 3 of the final 5 or 6 players I bring in to finish my team won't be in the top 12 of their position either. Sometimes we need to take a value pick or two, just to be able to fill our teams.
Houli is more likely to be in the upper end of scorers in Defence than Thompson is in the Mid, so that option might be the best way.
As to Deledio, I would think he is likely to average ok, but will probably miss a game or two, or get managed a little. If you are prepared to wear that, he can be a good pick.

thanks very much mate

 

[Goodie's Guns]

I'm not sure I'm on board with trading Newnes out.
He's averaged 88.6 with Weller in the team, and his last 5 scores with Weller playing are: 87, 95, 92, 113, 103 - Ave 98.
Parker is a good player, but he showed last season, that he can struggle to average 110+ with competition in the team. I think he can play to his price, which is around 108. I think you're right, and he's definitely better value on a points/dollar basis than Danger. Danger is priced at around 126, I have doubts he can play to that level for the rest of the season.
I was a big Sidey fan, but agree it would be madness to get him right now. Take the opportunity to assess him further, while his price decreases. The problem might be, a lot of the players you are looking need a few weeks for one reason or another, in that sense, Parker might be a good pick! I wouldn't take Selwood until we something more positive. He's played one Selwood-like quarter in the 5 or 6 Rounds.

Hi Rowsus,

Thanks for your thoughts.
Yes I have changed my trade plans slightly, due to the Mummy issue. I'm now keeping Newnes for the year, tossing up between Martin/Jacobs, and if Byrne plays this week I will take him ahead of Hamling, as well as getting Houli.
My thoughts last night were to try and keep Tarrant at F7 for the year, but I think I'll need whatever coin he is priced at come round 15 onwards to try and get another premium MID. If all goes to plan I'll have sufficient cover in all positions (apart from Rucks) via DPP which is better than what I had last year when my whole MID got depleted by injury and suspension late in the year.

 

[Brookesy]

Hi Brookesy, thanks for the good feedback.

Lumumba $359,900 - B/E 70 - average 74
Oxley $392,200 - B/E 5 - average 84
Saad $389,300 - B/E 64 - average 84

If you think you can get by without the extra $29-$32k that trading one of the rookies out, then by all means trade out Lumumba.
Remember, the $30k isn't just useable this week, or next week, it might make a difference in 3 or 4 weeks, who you have to choose amongst.
The other question is, where are you heading? Is the one you keep out of those three players going to be loopholed at D6/7, or are you going to trade them all out at some stage?
If you think all three will be traded out, sooner or later, then keep Oxley, as his B/E says he will make more dollars.
If you intend to keep one as a D6/7 loophole, then you need to weigh up whether you think Saad might find his first season of AFL a bit hard, and will start to get niggling injuries, like he did on Saturday, which could lead to tired lower scores, or missed games, or if you are happy to keep Lumumba's likely 75-80/game scores. While I expect Oxley, with his up and down scoring, might just outscore the other two, the other two's DPP might come in handy for cover in the last 4 or 5 weeks of the season.
Let the dollars be your first decision, and if you think you can live without the extra $30k, maybe keep Saad.

Cheers Rowsus, that makes a lot of sense. I really appreciate your time.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Just wondering what you think of these trade plans for round 12:

OUT - Brown, Saad, McIntosh
IN - Hamling, Murphy, Hodge

$7K and 10 trades left.

Defence would be - Hodge, Shaw, Murphy, Yeo, Newnes, Smith (Hamling, Lever)

Forward line is completed and only need to upgrade Cripps in the mids and maybe Grundy at R2. Still have Rocky though - could look at trading him to Sloane next week depending on Rocky's injury status.

Cheers in advance.

I like it. The only query is whether your bench cover stands up, but that is something you can look at down the track.
I also like that you still have a D/M DPP link after these trades.
Good luck, I hope you can score at least your team name this week!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just wanted to know your thoughts on Steele and if he will get a game.
Opened up Fwd/def link last week now looking to reopen mid/Fwds link again.
With trades running low and only 15 on field this week so far. I am thinking I have nothing to lose after a shocking unlucky season. Might aswell give me the best hope with links throughout for cover.
Was thinking
Heeney to Steele
McIntosh to Smith
Miller to Sloane

Would leave me 9 trades
Any thoughts appreciated

Hey Slammer,
as we now now, it looks likely Steele will get selected this week. The $64 question is, how many games will he actually play?
The trades look good, the only thing I would look at is possibly waiting until next week to do McIntosh to Smith.
Next week it will nearly be a straight swap, but if you already have 3 trades planned next week, and need to jump this week, then they all look ok.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Half way mark and I have 15 trades left, so I am thinking that is about on par right?

My trades last week helped me get exactly 18 and move up the ranking to 915, so I'm pretty happy!

I was just wondering if you think it is silly to go from Smith to Lever this week, considering Smith has a 118 B/E, and Lever is in the negatives. I can't field 18 without him, so I was wondering what you thought of it.

I am also going to use my other 2 trades, going from Oxley to Hodge and Brown to Hamling. Do you think I should avoid Hodge and go for a Houli? I love Hodgey, and think he will remain in the top 6 defenders. But what do you think is a value pick.

My team will be basically complete (only Cripps) after the byes... as I plan on bringing Deledio or Goddard into the forward line and allow Bontompelli to float between the midfield and forward line... but I can always sub Bont in for Cripps and have a complete team. Who do you think will end up the better player? Deledio or Goddard? Both Veterans, both guns! but who is the better choice?

Hi w2Tk,
it looks like you might need to jump a week early on Smith than what might be ideal, but that shouldn't be too much of a problem, given how close your team is to being complete.
I think Hodge will be one of the highest averages in Def from here, but I would have to bet he will miss some games, even if it is just management.
Given you are taking Hodge, it might be best to get Goddard over Deledio, otherwise you have two potential problems late in the season.
There are no great value picks that I can see in the Defs right now. I might be forced to take A Walker, just so I can complete my team, but it is not a move I am recommending to anyone!
Good luck

 

[THCLT]

Rowsus,

Needing to move one of Lever or McKenzie out of my team this week, problem is which one is likely to play again soon?

Lever - that minor 'roll of the ankle' has turned into 3 weeks and possibly another 1-2 so unlikely to see him again until after the MBRs. Looks a handy and composed player down back, still has a negative BE so more cash to milk or at worst be decent bench cover later in the season.

McKenzie - looks to be playing ok until that concussion incident, teams seem to be taking a more conservative approach in bringing a player back from concussion this year. Also, St Kilda's injury list is rapidly becoming non-existent so not sure whether he'll get any game time soon.

I'll most likely trade them both in the coming weeks, just need to trade one this week and hope the other can at least get on the park for 1 or 2 more games. I'm leaning towards trading McKenzie out this round and hedging my hopes on Lever getting a game within the next month.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus I am having trouble deciding which of my defenders are keepers. My backline is Yeo, Taylor, Clancee Pearce, Oxley, Saad, Thompson, Lumumba, Adamson (with McKenzie as a mid)

I am set on getting rid of Scott Thompson. (that is a pretty easy one).

First question - I would like to leave either Saad or Lumumba as my D7. Saad would be better for points (when he is needed later in the year) but Lumumba gets me the extra 30k now. Who stays and who goes?


Second question - Pearce and Oxley I am not certain on. I am leaning towards keeping both. This would mean Pearce D5 and Oxley D6. Are they scoring at a level that you would consider high enough for D5 and D6 or should I be looking at trading them up up?

*Rowsus I have just read back a bit and I think that my second question is likely to be answered when you answer a previous question.

Cheers

Mudflap,
history says Saad might tire as the season wears on, and while he might outpoint Lumumba most weeks, his scoring and durability will possibly come into question late in the season. It makes it a really line ball call, but if we are talking about a D7 it is better on both accounts to keep Lumumba.
Saad gives you more Cash, and you want a D7 you are pretty happy will front up most weeks. Saad is showing signs of wear and tear already.
Keep both Pearce and Oxley...... for now, but you might need to look at swapping one of them out down the track.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I need a Round 11 defender and I've narrowed down my options to the following 4 players:

Alex Rance
Under-priced and has the ability to go big but is a KPD and is likely to take on some of the best forwards

Bachar Houli
Has been quite consistent this year with some huge scores in between, just worried that the forward tag might go to him soon and also unsure of how the Ramadan period will affect him

Grant Birchall
Consistent scorer in a strong winning team but just coming back from an injury, does he have the durability to last the season?

Josh Gibson
Same as his team-mate above but plays better when Lake/Frawley are playing

I'm really stumped as to which of the above I should take with Simpson and Shaw as my other keepers.
I'm happy to hold Oxley, Saad and Newnes for the time being and I would ideally like to wait another week to assess Brodie Smith.

What would do if you were in my position? Thanks mate!

Hi MMM,
that looks easy to me. Houli.
Rance suffers from KPP Def disease. Some great scores, but a lot of 70ish scores too.
The other two can't be relied on to get on the park every week.
Waiting a week on Smith, where possible, is definitely something I am recommending.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, the 'plan' didn't exactly go perfectly . I thought I was well covered for Rd 11 with 22 players potentially available but ended up with a donut and Sheed's 4 - not ideal - and I was too hungover on Saturday to think straight to rework my trades lol. And with the outs so far this round I may have to revisit the 'plan' or I'll have multiple donuts. At least the Saints had a good win (or should I have mentioned that at least your Gawn trade was inspired). Which brings me to my question - what to do with Sheed? I had planned on trading him next round but he will lose a stack of money so I'll either hold him medium term if he can recover or trade him this round - what do you think? Also McKenzie - what should I do with him as his JS is looking non existent?

Hi Bones,
yes, the best layed plans quite often go up in smoke. My bye structure was pretty good 2 weeks ago, now it looks like a donut this week.
I am sure there others that have it worse than myself, though selection this week could really open up a can of worms!
Sheed is definitely at the crossroads of dump, or commit to holding him. I'm still not convinced that he has nothing to offer us SC wise. Depending on selection/vest this week, I'd hold him.
I agree with McKenzie looking very shakey, but he too should get more games, as St kilda need to get games into players like him. If you can afford to upgrade him, that's the best option, otherwise, if he's not causing too many problems, I'd try and hold him too.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Constantly refreshing this thread as Rowsus has gone into beast mode answering all the questions.

Abolsutely fantastic work mate!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Looking for some trade advice on my team as a whole. Sorry i know you don't like these RMT type questions.

Im running low on trades (13 left) and im playing for league so im a bit stuck on what i should do. i can only field 12 players for round 12 at the moment (not including Clark), i dont mind losing this round in my leagues as my position is ok. I feel tight letting go of players who still have money to make. I don't want to be selling them early only to find they make a lot more in future. In my case this week it's Oxley and Lever. Maybe you can knock some sense into me that getting rid of these type of players early isn't such a bad thing.

Current team is:

Oxley, Newnes, Lumumba (Hamling)
Hibberd, B.Smith, Lever (A.Pearce)

Fyfe, Pendles, Ward, J.Steven (McKenzie)
Treloar, Selwood, Cripps, Rocky (Anderson) (Boston)

Goldy, Nic Nat

Gray, Goddard, Martin (Clark)
Buddy, Swan, Boomer (Payne)

I currently have $428.500. Some trade options i was looking at are:

Lever > Simpson
Anderson > Sloane
Clark > Steele

Leaves me with; $26,100

Do you think these are good trades? It would leave my team almost complete with just Oxley, Lumumba and possibly Newnes at the back to upgrade. It means i will be able to field 15 this week (If Steele does play) . Another option is Houli instead of Simpson. If i take Houli instead of Simpson (leaves $51,700) i will most likely be able to trade Cripps > JPK with just the 1 trade next week. Simpson might leave me short by about 15k.

I can also just do Anderson > Sloane this week and Clark > Zorko. Will only fiend 14 this week and Zorko can be used as a sub for MID/FWD. Wait for the backline rookies to increase in price a bit and upgrade them later on.

Do you have any other suggestions i could do with my team? is J.Stevens time up? Any advice appreciated. Thanks

Hi d-buzzz,
I think Houli and Simpson will turn out to be very similar picks, so if Houli give you more flexibility, then he might be the better option this week.
Given your League aspirations, patience is a good thing, and if in doubt, don't milk those cows early. Extra dollars, and potentially extra trades are both Gold for League oriented players.
I'm not overly keen on Zorko. He's had his chance to shine with Brisbanes injury list, and hasn't. I'd leave him for now.
J Steven should be held until he looks like dropping too much value, or as a last upgrade.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Can't decide out of:

Hodge / Houli / and to a lesser extent Gibson
&
Dangerfield / Sloane / and to a lesser extent Cotchin

I'm a bit worried about the off field Dangerfield discussion and whether that will negatively impact his scores towards the back end of the season.

Would love to hear your thoughts,

Thanks again

Hi HoM?,
I expect Hodge to be up with the best Def averages from here, but I also expect he (and Gibson) will likely miss games, particularly late in the season. I think Houli might be a better choice.
Sloane will still take another 2 to 4 games to get back to normal scoring patterns, I would think. On a total point basis, I would expect Danger to be a better pick, but on a return for price basis, Sloane beats Danger easily. Contract talks can affect a player, but I think Danger is more likely to be affected by constant physical tags wearing him down late in the season.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Thoughts on keeping Robbie Tarrant at F7 for the year???

A Little bit like keeping Brown as D7/8. Good JS, but don't expect more than 50/60 each week. I'd prefer to have good JS in my cover, and 10 less points/week sitting on the bench, than dodgy JS, but a few more points sitting there.
Someone better would be preferable, but he's not the worst F7.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Needing to move one of Lever or McKenzie out of my team this week, problem is which one is likely to play again soon?

Lever - that minor 'roll of the ankle' has turned into 3 weeks and possibly another 1-2 so unlikely to see him again until after the MBRs. Looks a handy and composed player down back, still has a negative BE so more cash to milk or at worst be decent bench cover later in the season.

McKenzie - looks to be playing ok until that concussion incident, teams seem to be taking a more conservative approach in bringing a player back from concussion this year. Also, St Kilda's injury list is rapidly becoming non-existent so not sure whether he'll get any game time soon.

I'll most likely trade them both in the coming weeks, just need to trade one this week and hope the other can at least get on the park for 1 or 2 more games. I'm leaning towards trading McKenzie out this round and hedging my hopes on Lever getting a game within the next month.

THCLT,
they both look at bit shakey, as far as selection in the near future looks. Lever might depend on fitness AND playing a team with a tall Fwd line. McKenzie needs an injury, or St Kilda to use a bit of a rotation system with their fringe players, which I think they might adopt.
If forced to choose, I will say McKenzie plays before Lever, but I have no confidence I am right.

 

[jaca]

To that point, I assume it's preferable to have a DPP rookie and a DPP half-premo (eg Bont) as bench cover over 2 x 300kers that make us 50/60 when called upon?

 

[Rowsus]

Constantly refreshing this thread as Rowsus has gone into beast mode answering all the questions.

Abolsutely fantastic work mate!

Thanks ZP,
I got a bit behind with things this week, so I had to answer a few them a bit shorter than I'd like, just to make sure I got through them all before lockout tonight.

 

[Rowsus]

To that point, I assume it's preferable to have a DPP rookie and a DPP half-premo (eg Bont) as bench cover over 2 x 300kers that make us 50/60 when called upon?

That's certainly my preference, yes.