Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hi Dimma,
it's actually been a bit confusing, and hard to predict the past 2 seasons.
Prior to then it would drop around 5-7% in Round 3, then slowly drift down to 9-10% below it's starting point by about Round 10, then just be a little up, a little down week to week after that, with more down weeks than up weeks. It was unheard of to see an up week before Round 9 or 10.
These days it gets to about Round 4 or 5, and starts going up and down. The fluctuations are bigger, and there are still more down than ups, but it is nearly pointless to try and predict what it might be, week to week, after about Round 5 these days.
Work on about 5% for Round 3, then around 1.6% for Round 4, then just assume it will be around 5020 +/- 40-50 from about Round 7.
The good old days of a slow decline and level off around at around a 9% drop are gone, I think.
it's actually been a bit confusing, and hard to predict the past 2 seasons.
Prior to then it would drop around 5-7% in Round 3, then slowly drift down to 9-10% below it's starting point by about Round 10, then just be a little up, a little down week to week after that, with more down weeks than up weeks. It was unheard of to see an up week before Round 9 or 10.
These days it gets to about Round 4 or 5, and starts going up and down. The fluctuations are bigger, and there are still more down than ups, but it is nearly pointless to try and predict what it might be, week to week, after about Round 5 these days.
Work on about 5% for Round 3, then around 1.6% for Round 4, then just assume it will be around 5020 +/- 40-50 from about Round 7.
The good old days of a slow decline and level off around at around a 9% drop are gone, I think.
He's a reasonable prospect, but I'd be avoiding him. This is his 4th season, and his last 9 games from 2016 are interesting viewing.
Rnd 10, 11, 12 - 80, 110, 99 - ave 96
missed 14, 15, 16
Rnd 17, 18, 19 - 68, 70, 58 - ave 65
missed 20
Rnd 21, 22, 23 - 80, 108, 80 - ave 89
Which one represents the Cutler of 2017 better? Who knows! There just doesn't seem to be enough pointing to him becoming a Def Keeper, and at his price, if he doesn't, he would be considered a failed pick. He really looks like the best he could do is fill a poorish D6, and you shouldn't be trying to fill D6 with a $400k+ player in Round 1.
Rnd 10, 11, 12 - 80, 110, 99 - ave 96
missed 14, 15, 16
Rnd 17, 18, 19 - 68, 70, 58 - ave 65
missed 20
Rnd 21, 22, 23 - 80, 108, 80 - ave 89
Which one represents the Cutler of 2017 better? Who knows! There just doesn't seem to be enough pointing to him becoming a Def Keeper, and at his price, if he doesn't, he would be considered a failed pick. He really looks like the best he could do is fill a poorish D6, and you shouldn't be trying to fill D6 with a $400k+ player in Round 1.
Hi BB,
looking forward to seeing you at the poker table!
I'm not backing Williams to make the step from 88 to Def Keeper.
Started 2016 late, in Round 3, and took 3 games (at 83) to find his feet. He then played 13 games (at 95) of ok football, highlighted by a 141 in a 10 goal win against Carlton, just before the bye. His numbers weren't extraordinary that day, and resembled the numbers he got in his other three 100+ scores. Then he played the last 4 games (at 72) in a disappointing manner.
The thing I look at, to say I don't think he'll make it, is not enough 100+ or 90+ scores, combined with too many sub 70's and another 3 scores in the 70's. Add in a disappointing finals series, and I just don't want to take him. He could make a Def Keeper, but I think there are better options around or just above his price.
looking forward to seeing you at the poker table!
I'm not backing Williams to make the step from 88 to Def Keeper.
Started 2016 late, in Round 3, and took 3 games (at 83) to find his feet. He then played 13 games (at 95) of ok football, highlighted by a 141 in a 10 goal win against Carlton, just before the bye. His numbers weren't extraordinary that day, and resembled the numbers he got in his other three 100+ scores. Then he played the last 4 games (at 72) in a disappointing manner.
The thing I look at, to say I don't think he'll make it, is not enough 100+ or 90+ scores, combined with too many sub 70's and another 3 scores in the 70's. Add in a disappointing finals series, and I just don't want to take him. He could make a Def Keeper, but I think there are better options around or just above his price.
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Hey Row,
I saw your comments on Lloyd, but players like Lloyd, Pittard and even Mills, if i see them averaging 92-96 does this make them worth getting or not? I cant see any of them going 100+ but i see them reaching 90+.
I know last season people were locking in Simpson and Rance for their 95-97 they were expecting.
Not sure if i will go any of them yet but just want to know if thats what i think they will get whether or not it makes them a decent pick.
Thanks mate
I saw your comments on Lloyd, but players like Lloyd, Pittard and even Mills, if i see them averaging 92-96 does this make them worth getting or not? I cant see any of them going 100+ but i see them reaching 90+.
I know last season people were locking in Simpson and Rance for their 95-97 they were expecting.
Not sure if i will go any of them yet but just want to know if thats what i think they will get whether or not it makes them a decent pick.
Thanks mate
Hi Mike,
if they can make the 95-96 of your 92-96 area, then yes, they are probably ok to start. If they only scratch into the 92 area, then they will only be a bog standard D6, which makes them a poorish pick. When you spend that sort of money you want a Keeper, and while D6 is still a Keeper position, it is the last spot you should be trying to fill, from your 12-14 Rnd 1 Keepers picked in your team.
if they can make the 95-96 of your 92-96 area, then yes, they are probably ok to start. If they only scratch into the 92 area, then they will only be a bog standard D6, which makes them a poorish pick. When you spend that sort of money you want a Keeper, and while D6 is still a Keeper position, it is the last spot you should be trying to fill, from your 12-14 Rnd 1 Keepers picked in your team.
greetings Rowsus,
Rance - not a big fan but starting to think he may be among the better defenders. I initially thought his SC scores might be (negatively) correlated with ins and outs among his fellow defenders. But Bacher Houli's absence almost appears to have hurt his SC scores. Are there any other factors that affect his scores such as wins, small grounds, final position or the then ranking of opponents.
Thank you and do love your work.
Rance - not a big fan but starting to think he may be among the better defenders. I initially thought his SC scores might be (negatively) correlated with ins and outs among his fellow defenders. But Bacher Houli's absence almost appears to have hurt his SC scores. Are there any other factors that affect his scores such as wins, small grounds, final position or the then ranking of opponents.
Thank you and do love your work.
greetings chels, good to see you back 
The key to Rance in 2016 looks pretty simple, the worse Richmond went, the better Rance went.
5 interstate losses by an average of 75 points, Rance averages 117 in those games.
6 losses against top 6 teams (4 of those interstate, so included above), Rance averages 120 in those games.
Richmond are some chance to win 6 of their first 10 games, though that is a little optimistic, but it's enough for me to say, I won't be starting Rance!
The key to Rance in 2016 looks pretty simple, the worse Richmond went, the better Rance went.
5 interstate losses by an average of 75 points, Rance averages 117 in those games.
6 losses against top 6 teams (4 of those interstate, so included above), Rance averages 120 in those games.
Richmond are some chance to win 6 of their first 10 games, though that is a little optimistic, but it's enough for me to say, I won't be starting Rance!
Good to be back Rowsus , especially knowing you are still dispensing quality stats!
I must have read it somewhere but it still came as a surprise that 6 of the 8 tiges' wins came against bottom 6 clubs. Very interesting stat that coupled with no wins against the top 6 clubs. I guess the ball was finding its way into the back line big time in a lot of those games. Credit to him for sticking at it and taking those marks.
Have to agree with your conclusion - back to the drawing board.
, especially knowing you are still dispensing quality stats!I must have read it somewhere but it still came as a surprise that 6 of the 8 tiges' wins came against bottom 6 clubs. Very interesting stat that coupled with no wins against the top 6 clubs. I guess the ball was finding its way into the back line big time in a lot of those games. Credit to him for sticking at it and taking those marks.
Have to agree with your conclusion - back to the drawing board.
The sun is shining and Rowsus is back at his desk. The long dark (10-week) Supercoach winter is over.
I'd like to see a table for Eddie Betts, please. Like the look of those 10 ADE matches leading up to their bye (6 at home and I'd predict them to win 9 out of the 10) and thought Betts might be the way to go if looking for a shark move.
If you have a Crows player in mind who you think would better suit the purpose, I'd be all ears to that too.
Many thanks and great to have this thread back for my breakfast reading. Much better (and less depressing) than the newspaper.
I'd like to see a table for Eddie Betts, please. Like the look of those 10 ADE matches leading up to their bye (6 at home and I'd predict them to win 9 out of the 10) and thought Betts might be the way to go if looking for a shark move.
If you have a Crows player in mind who you think would better suit the purpose, I'd be all ears to that too.
Many thanks and great to have this thread back for my breakfast reading. Much better (and less depressing) than the newspaper.
I would think there is very little chance he is next season's Gawn.
Gawn really put the writing on the wall, not only with his AFL performances in 2015, but also his VFL performances, recording a 80 Hitout game against Ballarat! I don't think Hickey could do that in the VFL reserves.
Also, I expect a lot more from Longer, and even Holmes in 2017. Longer had a really bad prep in the pre-season of 2016, then suffered for weeks from concussion. I'd be pretty sure he is better prepared for 2017, and will push for selection in quite a number of games. If Giles wasn't such an easy under $300k pick, I think there'd be a few eyeing Longer as a sneaky POD for a low priced R2/3.
Gawn really put the writing on the wall, not only with his AFL performances in 2015, but also his VFL performances, recording a 80 Hitout game against Ballarat! I don't think Hickey could do that in the VFL reserves.
Also, I expect a lot more from Longer, and even Holmes in 2017. Longer had a really bad prep in the pre-season of 2016, then suffered for weeks from concussion. I'd be pretty sure he is better prepared for 2017, and will push for selection in quite a number of games. If Giles wasn't such an easy under $300k pick, I think there'd be a few eyeing Longer as a sneaky POD for a low priced R2/3.
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