Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Best wishes for a fantastic new year Rowsus. Predictably, the wishes come with a question! 
I am enjoying the afl's website assessment of best positions by team. For example, Swan's defence, Giants mids and forwards. My question may have been posed previously and if so a hint as to where I might find the answer will more than suffice.
Should one choose "the best forward" in the "worst team of forwards" - suggested by the afl website review as a Carlton player, perhaps Matty Wright - or a similarly priced forward in the "best team of forwards?" Perhaps Devon Smith or Stevie J. Would the Carlton player get more opportunities to score SC points because he is the player of choice to deliver to? Or is he more heavily marked because of his "superiority?" Or does a lower priced GWS player get more opportunities because he might be free as his more highly priced / rated peers are the more obvious players to mark.
Not sure how to test this - perhaps lower priced player in better D,M,R,F versus higher priced player in poorer D,M,R,F? Or perhaps the correlations of rankings such as SC points v pricing at start of the year (perhaps Spearman correlations)? Hope I have articulated the question clearly enough to get the cogs working.
I am enjoying the afl's website assessment of best positions by team. For example, Swan's defence, Giants mids and forwards. My question may have been posed previously and if so a hint as to where I might find the answer will more than suffice.
Should one choose "the best forward" in the "worst team of forwards" - suggested by the afl website review as a Carlton player, perhaps Matty Wright - or a similarly priced forward in the "best team of forwards?" Perhaps Devon Smith or Stevie J. Would the Carlton player get more opportunities to score SC points because he is the player of choice to deliver to? Or is he more heavily marked because of his "superiority?" Or does a lower priced GWS player get more opportunities because he might be free as his more highly priced / rated peers are the more obvious players to mark.
Not sure how to test this - perhaps lower priced player in better D,M,R,F versus higher priced player in poorer D,M,R,F? Or perhaps the correlations of rankings such as SC points v pricing at start of the year (perhaps Spearman correlations)? Hope I have articulated the question clearly enough to get the cogs working.
thanks for the reply great to know you agree about grundy being a good pick
i actually have a 2 for 1 hope thats ok
whats your opinion on jasper pittard?
i actually have a 2 for 1 hope thats ok
whats your opinion on jasper pittard?
No,
Not at all. I'm not sure what all this fear and fuss is about Round 9 bye players. Some are saying they should be avoided, then get them before the other byes hit, others are just worried about having them at all. My approach is, if you like them well enough, take them from Round 1. It certainly appears it may be advantageous to have 2 or 3 through the "normal byes", and as I said, if you like them for your starting team, don't let a Round 9 bye stop you. All your Keepers face a bye at some stage anyway!
Now and then, but not so often I'd worry about it.
I doubt he'll play forward too often, but I also doubt he'll never play there. I've seen him in his share of teams. I think he'll be there abouts in the top 10 or 12 Defs, I'm just not sure he will scrape into the top 4 to 6.
I think I'd want him to be cheaper, if I was going to risk starting him. The double risk of game count and and scoring capability means he really is a high risk pick. I think you need some sort of buffer with high risk picks, and the only buffer for one like Stevens is price. If he was $380,000 and fitted my structure, I'd consider him, but as it is, I'm not even really looking at him as a starter for my team.
Best wishes for a fantastic new year Rowsus. Predictably, the wishes come with a question!
I am enjoying the afl's website assessment of best positions by team. For example, Swan's defence, Giants mids and forwards. My question may have been posed previously and if so a hint as to where I might find the answer will more than suffice.
Should one choose "the best forward" in the "worst team of forwards" - suggested by the afl website review as a Carlton player, perhaps Matty Wright - or a similarly priced forward in the "best team of forwards?" Perhaps Devon Smith or Stevie J. Would the Carlton player get more opportunities to score SC points because he is the player of choice to deliver to? Or is he more heavily marked because of his "superiority?" Or does a lower priced GWS player get more opportunities because he might be free as his more highly priced / rated peers are the more obvious players to mark.
Not sure how to test this - perhaps lower priced player in better D,M,R,F versus higher priced player in poorer D,M,R,F? Or perhaps the correlations of rankings such as SC points v pricing at start of the year (perhaps Spearman correlations)? Hope I have articulated the question clearly enough to get the cogs working.
I am enjoying the afl's website assessment of best positions by team. For example, Swan's defence, Giants mids and forwards. My question may have been posed previously and if so a hint as to where I might find the answer will more than suffice.
Should one choose "the best forward" in the "worst team of forwards" - suggested by the afl website review as a Carlton player, perhaps Matty Wright - or a similarly priced forward in the "best team of forwards?" Perhaps Devon Smith or Stevie J. Would the Carlton player get more opportunities to score SC points because he is the player of choice to deliver to? Or is he more heavily marked because of his "superiority?" Or does a lower priced GWS player get more opportunities because he might be free as his more highly priced / rated peers are the more obvious players to mark.
Not sure how to test this - perhaps lower priced player in better D,M,R,F versus higher priced player in poorer D,M,R,F? Or perhaps the correlations of rankings such as SC points v pricing at start of the year (perhaps Spearman correlations)? Hope I have articulated the question clearly enough to get the cogs working.
I hope your year is a great one, too.While I believe there is a correlation between buying/selling players in SC, and the stockmarket, I don't believe the correlation stretches to a real estate analogy. ie. "Buy the worst house in the best street, not the best house in the worst street" type thinking.
l really don't think either method is more likely than the other to produce a successful pick in SC. You really have to look at the reasons behind why the team is the best/worst, and what role that player fills within that team. The best Forward team might spread the points too thinly amongst it's depth, and the worst Forward team mightn't score enough points for it's best player to be relevant. I've generally got an eye in between the two. I look for teams on the up, as I believe an improving team is more likely to produce a break out type player. Top teams have too much perceived depth, and bottom teams don't have enough depth to provide assistance. If you can spot the team that is likely to improve it's ladder position by 3 or 4 spots, and get at least up to say 9th or 10th or better, then you might be on the track to finding the team of the break out player. It's not a hard and fast rule, but it finds more than it's share!
Thank you for the reply Rowsus. Just had a little chuckle; played golf yesterday afternoon and I realised my questions was of the style of should one "Buy the worst house in the best street, not the best house in the worst street" and then thought nah, and pictured you pouring over a huge spreadsheet while recalling non-parametric tests.
Good, sound commonsense. You don't see a lot of that these days.
Good, sound commonsense. You don't see a lot of that these days.
Hey Rowsus,
Any chance you could compile a ruck SOS like you have done previously here: http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Replacement-Analysis-Naitanui-amp-Tippett-Out
It's a big project but it would be well appreciated! The Grundy, Goldy or Gawn debate is a tough one!
Many thanks
B18
Any chance you could compile a ruck SOS like you have done previously here: http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Replacement-Analysis-Naitanui-amp-Tippett-Out
It's a big project but it would be well appreciated! The Grundy, Goldy or Gawn debate is a tough one!
Many thanks
B18
There have been 31 players play AFL football at the age of 33 during the SC era, and only 8 of those 31 averaged 95+ for the season. The 8 players were: (followed by game count and average for their 33 year old season, and their 32 year old season)
M Boyd: 20/104, 18/104
C Enright: 21/96, 20/89
B Harvey: 22/96, 22/101
S Mitchell: 20/104, 20/109
R Murphy: 3/103, 20/92
R O'Keefe: 22/101, 21/104
N Riewoldt: 21/101, 17/91
S West: 10/102, 20/102
Two of the 8 suffered major injuries in their 33yo season, while the other six played the same or more games, than they did at 32.
Three scored higher, 3 scored lower, and 2 scored the same as they did at 32.
What all that means is, while he is at higher risk for injury, we shouldn't let age deter us from taking him.
I'm not sure why he would suddenly get tagged in 2017, more than he has been in previous seasons. Surely he is seen as less damaging now, than when he was at the peak of his powers.
He's currently touch and go to be in my team, but I would think his downside is a lot better than many other Defs downsides.
M Boyd: 20/104, 18/104
C Enright: 21/96, 20/89
B Harvey: 22/96, 22/101
S Mitchell: 20/104, 20/109
R Murphy: 3/103, 20/92
R O'Keefe: 22/101, 21/104
N Riewoldt: 21/101, 17/91
S West: 10/102, 20/102
Two of the 8 suffered major injuries in their 33yo season, while the other six played the same or more games, than they did at 32.
Three scored higher, 3 scored lower, and 2 scored the same as they did at 32.
What all that means is, while he is at higher risk for injury, we shouldn't let age deter us from taking him.
I'm not sure why he would suddenly get tagged in 2017, more than he has been in previous seasons. Surely he is seen as less damaging now, than when he was at the peak of his powers.
He's currently touch and go to be in my team, but I would think his downside is a lot better than many other Defs downsides.
Hey B18,
unfortunately, I believe the landscape has changed too much to make this a worthwhile exercise. While it would give some sort of lead, the value and validity of the information obtained, probably don't match up with the work involved to get it done, sorry.
Interesting looking back at the table from Round 13 on last season. It predicted Gawn would average 126.9 between Rounds 13 and 22, and he averaged 127.2!!!
unfortunately, I believe the landscape has changed too much to make this a worthwhile exercise. While it would give some sort of lead, the value and validity of the information obtained, probably don't match up with the work involved to get it done, sorry.
Interesting looking back at the table from Round 13 on last season. It predicted Gawn would average 126.9 between Rounds 13 and 22, and he averaged 127.2!!!
No worries Rowsus. I agree that it would be a lot of work and it would be hard to know the accuracy of the analysis as rucks have changed in a few sides like wce, port, grundy breakout etc. It is amazing how close your predictions went with Gawn!
Maybe could you just have a look at grundy and see if in the second half he became a much harder ruck to score against (ie average vs grundy compared to season average?) Would appreciate the same with Gawn and Goldy too if possible!
Thank you
Maybe could you just have a look at grundy and see if in the second half he became a much harder ruck to score against (ie average vs grundy compared to season average?) Would appreciate the same with Gawn and Goldy too if possible!
Thank you
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Have gone back to the start of December and started reading through this thread to glean as much knowledge/insight as possible, a mini bible of SC goodness and many thanks Rowsus.
I agree with what you've said above, but would suggest keeping an eye on his role pre-season, there is a reasonable prospect of him playing increased time in the mids with Griffen dropping back and Whitfield out. If that happens he'd still be a risk and he isn't currently in my team, but he would become at the very least, tempting.
I agree with what you've said above, but would suggest keeping an eye on his role pre-season, there is a reasonable prospect of him playing increased time in the mids with Griffen dropping back and Whitfield out. If that happens he'd still be a risk and he isn't currently in my team, but he would become at the very least, tempting.
wondering what your opinion on callum mills is for this season?
it has been mentioned that he could take mitchells spot in the midfield and newman takes mills's spot at half back which would be awesome for s/c if true
i know that picking 2nd year players isn't encouraged but i think if what i mentioned is to be true he could be a very good pick
it has been mentioned that he could take mitchells spot in the midfield and newman takes mills's spot at half back which would be awesome for s/c if true
i know that picking 2nd year players isn't encouraged but i think if what i mentioned is to be true he could be a very good pick
While I'm not sure about Mills as a pick, what I do know is that Newman was told by Longmire that there is a spot available in the back half for the taking. In fact he was very close to coming into the team late last year before Longmire went with Jones instead (ironically another peninsula boy)
Apologies for dropping in on your thread here Rowsus.
Apologies for dropping in on your thread here Rowsus.
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newman takes mills's spot and mills takes mitchells spot and heeney continues on his finals form
On Nic Newman that I have just found. Won the BOG medal in a losing Swans NEAFL Grand Final side. Has yet to debut after 2 seasons on the list but was given a new two-year contract at the end of the 2016 season (this is without any demonstration that he can play against the bigger AFL bodies). He is a mature aged player given he is 24 this year, which only helps his case for playing this season.
http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2016-09-13/new-deal-for-newy
^ Thanks Jarrad, JW - if it's McVeigh on the outer that certainly opens up a spot.
It seems unlikely, but hopefully the Swans play pretty much full strength, and with a consistent setup, in the NAB. It may be hard to determine their plans if they don't, and I'm usually reluctant to take a rookie from a good team unless I know they have a role.
It seems unlikely, but hopefully the Swans play pretty much full strength, and with a consistent setup, in the NAB. It may be hard to determine their plans if they don't, and I'm usually reluctant to take a rookie from a good team unless I know they have a role.
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