Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

was wondering what your view on lachie weller is?

scored 76,114 and 95 against 3 good teams in the last 3 games playing in the backline and has been training there so far

to mid priced for pretty much everyone but if he can continue on the form from those last 3 games he will be a pretty good pick

a very awkward price, played 22 games last season, and his 5 highest scores were: 114, 108, 95, 76 and 68!!!

3 games at the end of the season isn't a long enough string of games to justify taking him, and they only averaged out at 95 anyway.

He'd want to do something pretty remarkable in the JLT before you seriously considered him!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Apart from Gary Ablett, has anyone EVER gone from the number 1 scorer from 1 season to the number 1 scorer of the next?

Also don't think any 700k+ initial selection has turned out to be successful.

Excellent question, I look forward to sone other opinions, though I'd suggest that Ablett a few years back was certainly a successful 700k pick for those who perma-captained or loopholed him. As far as value for money, you need to factor in some reliability as far as captaincy options go rather than expecting a certain 130/week.
The risk becomes significantly higher once you start pushing past the 600k mark though, that's for sure!

Hey Pro,
depending on which category you want to look at, Swan and Pendlebury have both achieved it as well. The table below shows the leading player each year in 3 separate categories.

Only 4 players in 12 years of SC have won all 3 categories in the one season.

As to $700,000 question, I must start by saying the pricing history prior to 2010 is very sketchy, so we can only look at 2010 to 2016.

G Ablett
2010 - $744,200 - 21/129.9 TICK
2013 - $740,500 - 21/128.9 TICK
2015 - $734,600 - 6/115.5 FAIL

S Pendlebury
2012 - $700,500 - 18/124.7 TICK (was still the 8th best PIT70 Mid only player!)

From what I can see, only one turned out to be a bad pick.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,

What are some teams key defenders score well against?


Thanks

 

[Kilted Killer]

Hi Rowsus,
Love your work!
You are a great Statistician and the need for statistics is undeniable. My question stems from my willingness to watch every NAB/JLT game in the preseason and make my own assessments of who I think will be a break out candidate/ cash cow or useful rookie. I am sure that anyone could read a Fanatasy freako type publication at the end of the preseason and choose a fairly decent team. I suppose what I am trying to elicit is how much you rely on the statistics vs what you see? Do they need to correlate? Is there a formula you have used which has proven successful? Visual and statistical analysis can be either complementary or unrelated. One of my worst decisions for example was Touk Miller. I liked him in the 2015 preseaon and picked him as a solid rookie. After his first 2 scores of 30 and 35 I traded him to NathanVB. Touk went on to be a fantstic pick whilst NVB spudded it up. . I guess my question is, to be successful, what percentage should you place on the hard statistics versus gut feel/visual analysis? Your thoughts are much appreciated

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Is there any reason why I'm seeing a general consensus of JPK over Hanneberry? I'm most likely biased but Hanneberry is an absolute treat to watch, and after two seasons of 113 at the age of 25 I feel like he has larger upside.

Think it's mainly down to his interrupted preseason as a result of knee injury in the GF.

There was an article this week saying he had come back in great shape though and "blitzed" the 3k time trial in December (don't know if blitzed means won), so I'm starting to think he could be a good option. In 9.9% of teams to JPKs 11% though so not a massive POD (though around here I've not seen him mentioned much).

No, Hanners apparently blitzed it by a good distance between himself and runner up.

Tom Mitchell leaving could help JPK. I think Longmire really struggled to know what to do with Mitchell because he doesn't seem to fit anywhere other than at the feet of the ruckmen but JPK is already the best in the comp at it.

Hey dyii,
I think it's a combination of what stephen said about Hannebery's surgery, and JPK getting named Captain. One of the few perceived drawbacks JPK has is that he can go missing in easy matches. It looks like he takes his foot off the gas sometimes. Whether this is true, or the role he has been given on that day is up for debate, but what isn't up for debate, is that most people are hoping/thinking he won't have those foot off the gas games, now that he is Captain. I'm sure Hannebery's ownership will rise, once the JLT hits us, and people see that he is fit.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowan,

What are your current thoughts on rucks this year? Who have you got in currently and who will you be looking at over the JLT Series?

Hey t.t6,
I'm clueless, like everybody else!
It's holding up my planning, because I believe selecting your Ruck strategy is step 2 in selecting your team. I'm keen to get a cheap Ruck in there somewhere, as we haven't had that option for a few years.
Sitting in my team on the SC site right now is: Sandi, Witts, Cameron, and as we know, I'm very unlikely to start that combo.
I will look at all the cheap options in the JLT, and probably end up going Gawn, cheap, cheaper, if the opportunity presents itself. I actually think Gawn might drop a bit this season, but given what's happening off the field to the other options, it might leave me no choice. If Grundy is running around like a Midfielder, and has a decent DE%, he will come into my calcs during the JLT too.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rows,

Just wanted your opinions on two players I am looking at.

Mark Murphy - Very well priced and looking good so far. Can he return to his best? I am tempted but cannot see him being a keeper. I reckon he might average 105pts at best even if he has a good run with injuries. I really cannot see him getting back to a 110+ average like he did back in 2011/12. So unless you plan to have him as a stepping stone I am guessing you don't start with him???

Tom Boyd - I seriously considering taking a risk with this bloke as R2 and Witts at R3 with a R/F possibly a FD at F8. I am thinking he may take his game to the next level this year after gaining confidence in a Premiership side. He was unlucky not to win the Norm Smith with 8 marks and 3 goals. I think at worst he could be a good cash earner or stepping stone in the Rucks once we work out the best R1 & R2.

Your thoughts as always are appreciated

Hi Slammer,
firstly, I'm not a great believer in Stepping Stones, generally, but especially not in the Midfield. Secondly, if I do have a Stepping Stone, I want them to make around $100k, while they are scoring useful points. There's the 2nd problem with Murphy. To make $100k he pretty much has to score at around 105-107, and if he does that, he won't leave your team. Carlton have a decent early draw, but Murphy's not for me.
As to Boyd, I know he played well in the GF, but I would want to see a few more SC productive type games from him, before I entertained picking him. With only 4 scores over 80 from his 38 games, it doesn't look that promising. I have no idea how his ankle and shoulder surgery have affected his pre-season prep, but I really don't want to risk him anyway.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

What are some teams key defenders score well against?


Thanks

Hey Pro,
the four highest scoring KP Defs last season were (using 194+cm as a definition!)
A Rance - 20/98 - 9th agg, 7th ave, 6th PIT65
T McDonald - 22/90 - 8th agg, 16th ave, 9th PIT65
J McGovern - 21/88 - 14th agg, 19th ave, 13th PIT65
R Tarrant - 22/84 - 12th agg, 26th ave, 18th PIT65

This is obviously a very inexact science. It doesn't take into account several factors that might influence the result, such as: TOG%, venue, direct opponent on the day, missing players from either side, role given on the day etc.

 

[freowho]

Hey Pro,
the four highest scoring KP Defs last season were (using 194+cm as a definition!)
A Rance - 20/98 - 9th agg, 7th ave, 6th PIT65
T McDonald - 22/90 - 8th agg, 16th ave, 9th PIT65
J McGovern - 21/88 - 14th agg, 19th ave, 13th PIT65
R Tarrant - 22/84 - 12th agg, 26th ave, 18th PIT65

This is obviously a very inexact science. It doesn't take into account several factors that might influence the result, such as: TOG%, venue, direct opponent on the day, missing players from either side, role given on the day etc.

As a very general observation it appears that the ball determines the score. Follow the ball.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Love your work!
You are a great Statistician and the need for statistics is undeniable. My question stems from my willingness to watch every NAB/JLT game in the preseason and make my own assessments of who I think will be a break out candidate/ cash cow or useful rookie. I am sure that anyone could read a Fanatasy freako type publication at the end of the preseason and choose a fairly decent team. I suppose what I am trying to elicit is how much you rely on the statistics vs what you see? Do they need to correlate? Is there a formula you have used which has proven successful? Visual and statistical analysis can be either complementary or unrelated. One of my worst decisions for example was Touk Miller. I liked him in the 2015 preseaon and picked him as a solid rookie. After his first 2 scores of 30 and 35 I traded him to NathanVB. Touk went on to be a fantstic pick whilst NVB spudded it up. . I guess my question is, to be successful, what percentage should you place on the hard statistics versus gut feel/visual analysis? Your thoughts are much appreciated

Hi KK, thanks for the kind words!
I probably go something like 60% hard, 35% visual, and 5% gut. Having said that, I believe gut is just a sub-conscious conclusion of the things you've seen and read anyway, so it's just a product of the first two.
I'm pretty sure you need a lot of luck to succeed at this game, and if you only use two of those 3, or worse still, one, you need even more luck! They can compliment each other, and quite often I'll see something in a game, that will make me delve deeper into that players hard stats. That can often happen, but the reverse rarely happens. There's not many occassions that I've seen something in someone's stats, and then thought, I'll have to look closer at him when I'm watching this Saturday. I watch on average 6-7 games/week. I have an advantage time-wise to achieve that, as I'm in a time zone 8 hours behind Melbourne, and so I get up at 5am on a Saturday to start watching the first game of the day. I've got the AFL overseas package, that gives me access to all games live, and replays when I want them too.
My advice on things like your Touk Miller experience is to back your judgement, and give it longer than two weeks. If your decision was based on decent observation, like this one was, don't be quick to correct it. If it is based on need, popularity or other such bases, then by all means act quickly to correct them.

 

[Kilted Killer]

Hi KK, thanks for the kind words!
I probably go something like 60% hard, 35% visual, and 5% gut. Having said that, I believe gut is just a sub-conscious conclusion of the things you've seen and read anyway, so it's just a product of the first two.
I'm pretty sure you need a lot of luck to succeed at this game, and if you only use two of those 3, or worse still, one, you need even more luck! They can compliment each other, and quite often I'll see something in a game, that will make me delve deeper into that players hard stats. That can often happen, but the reverse rarely happens. There's not many occassions that I've seen something in someone's stats, and then thought, I'll have to look closer at him when I'm watching this Saturday. I watch on average 6-7 games/week. I have an advantage time-wise to achieve that, as I'm in a time zone 8 hours behind Melbourne, and so I get up at 5am on a Saturday to start watching the first game of the day. I've got the AFL overseas package, that gives me access to all games live, and replays when I want them too.
My advice on things like your Touk Miller experience is to back your judgement, and give it longer than two weeks. If your decision was based on decent observation, like this one was, don't be quick to correct it. If it is based on need, popularity or other such bases, then by all means act quickly to correct them.

Thank you very much for your response Rowsus. Very succinctly reasoned and you have confirmed for me that I need to more numbers based research after watching a game to confirm my gut. (and then trust it )

 

[Prochard]

Hey Pro,
the four highest scoring KP Defs last season were (using 194+cm as a definition!)
A Rance - 20/98 - 9th agg, 7th ave, 6th PIT65
T McDonald - 22/90 - 8th agg, 16th ave, 9th PIT65
J McGovern - 21/88 - 14th agg, 19th ave, 13th PIT65
R Tarrant - 22/84 - 12th agg, 26th ave, 18th PIT65

This is obviously a very inexact science. It doesn't take into account several factors that might influence the result, such as: TOG%, venue, direct opponent on the day, missing players from either side, role given on the day etc.

Greatly appreciate it.

By the way do you have access to the starting teams of the last 3-4 years?

 

[MrMurdoch]

Hey Rowsus

First time popping in this pre-season.

What are your thoughts on Jack Viney? He's 22, coming into his 5th season, playing in an improving team and is upward trending nicely for a breakout. Simon Goodwin seems like more of an attacking coach than Paul Roos, could that mean a better role for Viney? He also has the best ruckman in the comp (who will no longer be hindered by 3rd man up) hitting it down his throat each week. It's a shame there is so much certainty about our midfield picks this year as it seems like he ticks all the boxes for a breakout season. I'm interested in your thoughts on him, especially as a Dees fan!

Thanks
MrM

Edit: He has also been given the co-captaincy!

 

[Rowsus]

Greatly appreciate it.

By the way do you have access to the starting teams of the last 3-4 years?

Happy to help.
I don't have them in any sort of format, but I know where you can find them easily enough for any given game.
Go to footywire, and in the menu at the top left click on fixture.
Choose the team you want, then choose the season you want.
It will give you a summary of that teams games for that season.
Click on the scores for the games you want to see the teams, and it will list the teams and the stats for that game.
There might be an easier way, but that's what I do, when I'm looking for that sort of info.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

First time popping in this pre-season.

What are your thoughts on Jack Viney? He's 22, coming into his 5th season, playing in an improving team and is upward trending nicely for a breakout. Simon Goodwin seems like more of an attacking coach than Paul Roos, could that mean a better role for Viney? He also has the best ruckman in the comp (who will no longer be hindered by 3rd man up) hitting it down his throat each week. It's a shame there is so much certainty about our midfield picks this year as it seems like he ticks all the boxes for a breakout season. I'm interested in your thoughts on him, especially as a Dees fan!

Thanks
MrM

Edit: He has also been given the co-captaincy!

One of my favourite players, but unless something explodes for him in the JLT, I would think he is too high of a risk. We really don't know what direction Goodwin will take the team, but I think he pretty much had the reigns in the last part of the season anyway. Viney's last 8 games sum up as to where my worries lie with him: 112, 117, 118, 65, 132, 48, 117, 73 - ave 98. He's obviously capable of scoring well, but the problem is, he is also one of the best run with players in the league. He's not a great tagger as such, and doesn't really play that role, but he will be given his share of run with roles during the season, and they can often lead to poorer scores. You would want to be very confident that Brayshaw, Oliver or someone similar is taking the run with role, before starting Viney in your team. Given his price, and the uncertainty, I think the risk is too high.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Just another two queries.

Firstly, I am interested in knowing what your defensive structure is. I am struggling once again in spending big in that area with proven premiums. The Shaw, Docherty , Laird to a lesser extent type players are probably safe options but they come at a cost obviously. I am always under the opinion that the defence is where you can take the most risk as it can be up and down. I am looking at 3-0-3 atm as I cannot seem to find any mid-pricers (JJ last year) that may improve and or are value. Docherty although fits the profile of a young possession winning defender is a risk at that price after one good season. Laird is interesting..Very consistent and due to his injury last year could be underpriced. Shaw reliable as always but age and price is putting me off. Not too mention he might get tagged more this year. Are you starting with 3-0-3 including any of the above mentioned players? Or are you looking at others that are slightly less in price eg. around the 4-450K mark?

Secondly, The Ruck. I am struggling with R2. I currently have Witts at R3 so I was looking at Sandilands as R2. But now he is struggling again with a calf injury I am concerned. If I look to going set and forget instead then its a big chunk of cash used up which I am trying to avoid. Just wondering what other Rucks you are looking at. Ryder, Hickey maybe at R2..Or are you going set and forget?

cheers

 

[yakka]

Gday Row,
First question from me this pre season is what are your thoughts on Jake Lloyd potentially breaking out this year and possibly finishing in the top 6 defenders.. Does he fit your criteria?
I think that he has built on his tank and I think that his in line for more midfield minutes.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just another two queries.

Firstly, I am interested in knowing what your defensive structure is. I am struggling once again in spending big in that area with proven premiums. The Shaw, Docherty , Laird to a lesser extent type players are probably safe options but they come at a cost obviously. I am always under the opinion that the defence is where you can take the most risk as it can be up and down. I am looking at 3-0-3 atm as I cannot seem to find any mid-pricers (JJ last year) that may improve and or are value. Docherty although fits the profile of a young possession winning defender is a risk at that price after one good season. Laird is interesting..Very consistent and due to his injury last year could be underpriced. Shaw reliable as always but age and price is putting me off. Not too mention he might get tagged more this year. Are you starting with 3-0-3 including any of the above mentioned players? Or are you looking at others that are slightly less in price eg. around the 4-450K mark?

Secondly, The Ruck. I am struggling with R2. I currently have Witts at R3 so I was looking at Sandilands as R2. But now he is struggling again with a calf injury I am concerned. If I look to going set and forget instead then its a big chunk of cash used up which I am trying to avoid. Just wondering what other Rucks you are looking at. Ryder, Hickey maybe at R2..Or are you going set and forget?

cheers

Hey Slammer,
I don't get too caught up in structure at this time of the year. Rookies should determine structure, and the JLT should determine your Rookies, so.......
My Def is currently sitting 4-0-4, and I'm doing my best to avoid the higher priced Defs. With the greater variance in their scores, I'm hoping to pick up the more expensive ones I want down the track. The only one that's been in and out of my team you mentioned is Laird. I don't think he's underpriced, but I do think you will get what you pay for with him.
Everyone is struggling with R2/3 at the moment, so don't stress it. I was going to try and avoid Gawn early on, but the events of the past 2 weeks mean it's at least one of Gawn or Grundy, and if forced to pick from those 2, I'll take Gawn. I'm very keen to get some cheaper action going at R2/R3, and not necessarily with a R/F link. Right now it looks like being Witts/Cameron, as they have been sitting R2/R3 for about 4 weeks in my team now. I will be watching the "cheaper" Rucks in the JLT, and seeing who I think is most likely to increase in value. I don't want to go set and forget, as there is an air of uncertainty with the Rucks this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Gday Row,
First question from me this pre season is what are your thoughts on Jake Lloyd potentially breaking out this year and possibly finishing in the top 6 defenders.. Does he fit your criteria?
I think that he has built on his tank and I think that his in line for more midfield minutes.

Gday yakka,
I think he's a chance to do all that, I'm just worried about the number of players in front of him for Midfield time. If he plays a good chunk of Mid in JLT 3, then go for it. If he doesn't, he probably needs an injury or two (..... or three!) to get the Midfield time you are hoping for.
I certainly wouldn't lock him into your team yet, especially being a Rnd 11 bye player. If you have to "fix" a player, there are two good times to do it. Early on, or at his bye. Being a Rnd 11 bye player effectively removes that option.

 

[siwel]

Hi Rowsus

Are you able to give some detailed insight into Blake Acres please?

Thanks