Hi Rows,
Figured I'd chimed in with a question of my own. Whilst the majority of coaches are currently focussing on 'beefing up' their midfield and settling their rucks set up, I've been looking to identify some potential bargain/value players to possibly start off with. When you have some time, can you cast your eyes over the following and give me your opinion and whether you feel there's any value in starting them? I do acknowledge that they are all returning from a long injury layoff, hence the potential value.
Dylan Roberton
Kade Kolodjashnij
Jaegar O'Meara
David Swallow
Jamie Elliott
Jarryd Roughead
Hi Thanh,
the first thing that springs to mind, when I read that, is aren't you looking for value in those selections, so you can beef up your Midfield too?
Roberton - has crossed the 100 game threshold, just, so if he is going to breakout, as opposed to have a spike season, you'd think this is his last chance. Having a best season of 20/90.6 doesn't read well for him. That season had 5 100+ scores, that were all 115+ as well, and 5 scores of 70 or lower. It will be interesting to see what the recruiting of Brown, and the "return" of Carlisle will do for Roberton's role. Of course, Fisher is gone now, so Roberton still might have to take the 3rd tall, when playing teams set up that way. I'm sure he will have some good rebounding games, but I'm also sure he will have his share of 60's again too. With only 1 season above 77, and 3 seasons with more than 14 games (none more than 20!) I think the risk is too great.
KK - I think it comes down to what happens with May now gone for the season. KK's running was setting him up for a SC friendly role, but if he has to go back to playing tall, you don't want him. Watch the next 2 JLT's to see what role he plays, but for now, he's a no, due to the uncertainty.
J O'M - if he gets through the JLT's looking ok, he's a definitely a chance to be a good pick. Either as a Stepping Stone, or a cheap M8/9. The big question is, will he stay on the park? He really only needs to average at least mid to high 80's to do his job for you (as a SS), and I'm confident if he stays on the park, that's his worst case scenario. I'm generally against Stepping Stones in the Midfield, but if you have the cash left over, or we are short of Mid Rookies, why not?!
Swallow D - I think some people are looking at him a bit starry-eyed, but he might turn out to be a good pick. Reading between the lines, it seems like some people are expecting Swallow to a 20-22 game player, at anything from 105-110/game. That would seem to be the very upper limit of anything he is likely to produce. He "only" needs to play every game at something like 92-94 to make $100k by his bye, and I think that is potentially in his wheel-house. Yes, Swallow looked good in 2014 when he went 22/103, but people seem to forget, that in 2015
BEFORE he did his knee, he played 4 games at 87/game, with a SC/100%TOG of 110. So if you believe what I do, you are left with a conundrum. I think J O'M is more likely than Swallow to fill a M8 role, but Swallow is more likely to stay on the park. If you are hoping to fill a cheap M8/9, go with J O'M. If you are looking for a Stepping Stone, then Swallow, particularly with his Round 9 bye, looks the better option. Personally, I've never had either in my team, at any stage this season.
J Elliott - cheap enough to be a stepping stone, I guess. If he times a good score or two a couple of weeks before you want to trade him out, he might make $130k. The thing is, I think we could find a Forward Rookie to do the same, at around half the price. Too many unknowns given his price. No.
J Roughead - I think people are a little too bullish on him. Sure, his last 5 seasons have been 96+, and he's moving ok in what we've seen, but that's not enough for me. It's like people expect the signs of fatigue to show themselves during the JLT. I think they'll start to show themselves when the "horror" of Hawthorns draw kicks in. In their first 20 games, Hawthorn play 12 at the MCG and 8 games where they travel on a plane. I'm fully expecting Roughead will show signs of wear and tear by about Round 11 at the latest. Yes, they can give him a rest in Round 14 (Crows in Ade, and 3rd interstate game out of 4, with the bye in between) to give him a big break at their bye, but I think he'll need more management than that, and his output will diminish as he tires.
Round 6 in Tassie
Round 7 at MCG
Round 8 in Tassie
Round 9 at MCG
Round 10 in Sydney
Round 11 in Adelaide.
There's just no respite. It's all big grounds and/or air travel. I have no doubt he will play some good games, but I'm also backing him to get managed a bit or get fatigued as the season wears on. I'm not risking him, as I think he will need fixing at some stage.