Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Darkie]

Hi Row - a hopefully simple one for you.

If you assume a particular scoring profile for a player, and plug that into your pricing calculator, and then increase or decrease one of his scores by, say, X points, am I correct that his price in 3+ weeks time changes by approximately 1000X?

I recall doing this calc some time ago. It's obviously 440X in the first week, so the upper limit would be 440x3 weeks = 1,320X ... but the change in his price in weeks 1 and 2 change the breakevens, and reduce the overall price move.

Is 1000X close to correct on your numbers?

Thanks,

Darkie

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row - a hopefully simple one for you.

If you assume a particular scoring profile for a player, and plug that into your pricing calculator, and then increase or decrease one of his scores by, say, X points, am I correct that his price in 3+ weeks time changes by approximately 1000X?

I recall doing this calc some time ago. It's obviously 440X in the first week, so the upper limit would be 440x3 weeks = 1,320X ... but the change in his price in weeks 1 and 2 change the breakevens, and reduce the overall price move.

Is 1000X close to correct on your numbers?

Thanks,

Darkie

Hi Darkie,
we're very close to the stage, where the MN tends to waiver up and down a little, instead of trending down so much, so let's do a little exercise to show the result:

Jack Bloggs scores exactly 100 every week, and is priced at $506,000.
He suddenly throws in a 80, but then goes back to his 100 every week ways.

Rnd x + 0 B/E 100 - score 80 - new price $497,200
Rnd x + 1 B/E 114.78 - score 100 - new price $490,700
Rnd x + 2 B/E 110.93 - score 100 - new price $485,900
Rnd x + 3 B/E 88.08 - score 100 - new price $491,100

These are pretty rounded and rough, and make some assumptions, but you can see a 20 point dropped caused Jack to drop close to $20,000.
I haven't done the exercise, but I think it is price relevant. ie a 20 point drop will cause a different effect on say a 120 player or an 80 player.
As an approximation, it seems your 1 point = $1,000 is really pretty good!

 

[Darkie]

Hi Darkie,
we're very close to the stage, where the MN tends to waiver up and down a little, instead of trending down so much, so let's do a little exercise to show the result:

Jack Bloggs scores exactly 100 every week, and is priced at $506,000.
He suddenly throws in a 80, but then goes back to his 100 every week ways.

Rnd x + 0 B/E 100 - score 80 - new price $497,200
Rnd x + 1 B/E 114.78 - score 100 - new price $490,700
Rnd x + 2 B/E 110.93 - score 100 - new price $485,900
Rnd x + 3 B/E 88.08 - score 100 - new price $491,100

These are pretty rounded and rough, and make some assumptions, but you can see a 20 point dropped caused Jack to drop close to $20,000.
I haven't done the exercise, but I think it is price relevant. ie a 20 point drop will cause a different effect on say a 120 player or an 80 player.
As an approximation, it seems your 1 point = $1,000 is really pretty good!

Thanks Row - good to have it independently verified

It does mean that some of these low rookie scores have a big impact on medium term cash generation though!

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey Row,

My mid prems are:
Mitchell, Dusty, Fyfe, Bont, Coniglio, Cripps, ___ , ___, (___, ___)

Just wondering the pros and cons of picking up a cheap fallen premium mid such as Neale/Merrett
(or even Crouch soon?) this week. They might be too good to ignore, though I'm hesitant because my backs and forwards are weak in comparison, and it also means I sacrifice a potential super-prem such as Danger/Oliver/Macrae/Crouch?
Both Neale and Merrett I had pegged for 110-112 this season, and both have disappointed with 90-odd. Merrett mostly through injury, Neale through less impact and a poor-performing team perhaps? How do you rate their prospects from here, particularly in comparison with those I mentioned.

Would I be correct in saying that because I already have speculative mid prems such as Bont/Coniglio/Cripps that I have to let these two slide?



Thanks again for all of your sage advice, it's nice to have some facts and stats to back up my feelings or to set me straight if needed!

 

[siwel]

Hi Rowsus

Sitting 1008 and thinking of something crazy looking for a POD. Sydney have a great run over the next few weeks and I did have Buddy penciled in as a trade in option in the pre season this round. With Buddy out and the Swans playing North, Hawks, Freo, Lions, Blues, Saints, Eagles prior to their bye I am looking at their other forward options.

Could you recommend any of the following as a Dimma - Cloke type gambit?
Tom Papley $391,600 1%
Kieren Jack $343,200 2%
George Hewett $322,200 1%
Will Hayward $273,900 0.8%

I am probably over thinking this while sitting at work but just a crazy left field option.

Thanks mate

 

[Lenny5]

Hi Rowsus

Sitting 1008 and thinking of something crazy looking for a POD. Sydney have a great run over the next few weeks and I did have Buddy penciled in as a trade in option in the pre season this round. With Buddy out and the Swans playing North, Hawks, Freo, Lions, Blues, Saints, Eagles prior to their bye I am looking at their other forward options.

Could you recommend any of the following as a Dimma - Cloke type gambit?
Tom Papley $391,600 1%
Kieren Jack $343,200 2%
George Hewett $322,200 1%
Will Hayward $273,900 0.8%

I am probably over thinking this while sitting at work but just a crazy left field option.

Thanks mate

I'm obviously not Rowsus and can't provide any form of statistics analysis, but just from general feeling I don't think you should overstate the fixture too much despite Sydney having a good run of games. All the guys you mentioned are yet to score 100 yet this season and are all awkwardly priced.

I think it's good you're considering a left-field option, but I think you'll fall into a trap selecting any of those players purely based on fixture.

 

[MC's Mix]

Hi Rowsus

Sitting 1008 and thinking of something crazy looking for a POD.

Could you recommend any of the following as a Dimma - Cloke type gambit?

I could be wrong but didn't Dimma take the gamble of trading Cloke OUT at top dollar as most were bending over backwards to bring him in? I can see what you're saying in identifying and bringing in a POD, but from my understanding Dimma did the opposite in his year to get the edge.

My advice would be to sit tight and trade aggressively throughout the byes to make up some ranking spots. That's where you can go on a bit of a run when people are fielding rookies and scrambling to get 18/week.

 

[freowho]

Hi Rowsus

Sitting 1008 and thinking of something crazy looking for a POD. Sydney have a great run over the next few weeks and I did have Buddy penciled in as a trade in option in the pre season this round. With Buddy out and the Swans playing North, Hawks, Freo, Lions, Blues, Saints, Eagles prior to their bye I am looking at their other forward options.

Could you recommend any of the following as a Dimma - Cloke type gambit?
Tom Papley $391,600 1%
Kieren Jack $343,200 2%
George Hewett $322,200 1%
Will Hayward $273,900 0.8%

I am probably over thinking this while sitting at work but just a crazy left field option.

Thanks mate

I like the idea but don't like the options. However Parker is one that could work. Priced below $500k.

 

[siwel]

I could be wrong but didn't Dimma take the gamble of trading Cloke OUT at top dollar as most were bending over backwards to bring him in? I can see what you're saying in identifying and bringing in a POD, but from my understanding Dimma did the opposite in his year to get the edge.

My advice would be to sit tight and trade aggressively throughout the byes to make up some ranking spots. That's where you can go on a bit of a run when people are fielding rookies and scrambling to get 18/week.

Hey MC, the plan was get in a low priced player and trade them out in 4-5 weeks when they reach a premium price

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey MC, the plan was get in a low priced player and trade them out in 4-5 weeks when they reach a premium price

Probably need to find a key forward then that might kick 6+ goals on a crazy streak or something! A player like JJK or T Lynch (when not injured) might do it for you

 

[Manikato1]

Probably need to find a key forward then that might kick 6+ goals on a crazy streak or something! A player like JJK or T Lynch (when not injured) might do it for you

If you want some crazy left field option who is capable of doing that then Waite is your man. I do not recommend the trade and am merely pointing out he can really go on tear when he gets going. Eg first 6 rounds of 2016 he produced 6 tons and was averaging 126 as a forward. $439k. You would be crazy to go for it but he is the type that is able to do it.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

My mid prems are:
Mitchell, Dusty, Fyfe, Bont, Coniglio, Cripps, ___ , ___, (___, ___)

Just wondering the pros and cons of picking up a cheap fallen premium mid such as Neale/Merrett
(or even Crouch soon?) this week. They might be too good to ignore, though I'm hesitant because my backs and forwards are weak in comparison, and it also means I sacrifice a potential super-prem such as Danger/Oliver/Macrae/Crouch?
Both Neale and Merrett I had pegged for 110-112 this season, and both have disappointed with 90-odd. Merrett mostly through injury, Neale through less impact and a poor-performing team perhaps? How do you rate their prospects from here, particularly in comparison with those I mentioned.

Would I be correct in saying that because I already have speculative mid prems such as Bont/Coniglio/Cripps that I have to let these two slide?



Thanks again for all of your sage advice, it's nice to have some facts and stats to back up my feelings or to set me straight if needed!

Hi MC,
the first thing I'd say is, Coniglio and Cripps might have started as speculative picks, but you can probably move them to the solid Keepers pile for now, so that removes part of any risk or guilt in taking more speculative picks.
Secondly, not all the "super-prems" you named are really Super-Prems, or must haves, at this stage, and getting a Neale/Merrett doesn't preclude getting at least 2 of the others, unless you have a great run with injuries.
Lastly, your Forward line does look potentially brittle, I think I'd be doing a fix there first.

I think Neale is suffering from Ross trying to get experience into the young blokes. We saw late last season, that when Ross takes Neale out of his mainly Mid role, his SC scoring falls apart. At this stage, I think the risk is too great, to assume he has turned some sort of corner, and he'll be 110(+) now. Ross can throw him back out of the Mid, at anytime. He still manages to get lots of the ball in the "other" role, but it just doesn't seem to translate to good SC scores.
As to Merrett, I'm still worried that he can "fall" out of games, and suddenly have quarters where he scores next to 0. Everyone can do that, but he seems to do a lot this season. I'm thinking 110 might be too high, but somewhere in 100-105 might be ok.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Sitting 1008 and thinking of something crazy looking for a POD. Sydney have a great run over the next few weeks and I did have Buddy penciled in as a trade in option in the pre season this round. With Buddy out and the Swans playing North, Hawks, Freo, Lions, Blues, Saints, Eagles prior to their bye I am looking at their other forward options.

Could you recommend any of the following as a Dimma - Cloke type gambit?
Tom Papley $391,600 1%
Kieren Jack $343,200 2%
George Hewett $322,200 1%
Will Hayward $273,900 0.8%

I am probably over thinking this while sitting at work but just a crazy left field option.

Thanks mate

I'm obviously not Rowsus and can't provide any form of statistics analysis, but just from general feeling I don't think you should overstate the fixture too much despite Sydney having a good run of games. All the guys you mentioned are yet to score 100 yet this season and are all awkwardly priced.

I think it's good you're considering a left-field option, but I think you'll fall into a trap selecting any of those players purely based on fixture.

That's ok Lenny, I encourage anyone who wants to answer these questions to add their bit in as well.

I could be wrong but didn't Dimma take the gamble of trading Cloke OUT at top dollar as most were bending over backwards to bring him in? I can see what you're saying in identifying and bringing in a POD, but from my understanding Dimma did the opposite in his year to get the edge.

My advice would be to sit tight and trade aggressively throughout the byes to make up some ranking spots. That's where you can go on a bit of a run when people are fielding rookies and scrambling to get 18/week.

I like the idea but don't like the options. However Parker is one that could work. Priced below $500k.

Hey MC, the plan was get in a low priced player and trade them out in 4-5 weeks when they reach a premium price

Probably need to find a key forward then that might kick 6+ goals on a crazy streak or something! A player like JJK or T Lynch (when not injured) might do it for you

If you want some crazy left field option who is capable of doing that then Waite is your man. I do not recommend the trade and am merely pointing out he can really go on tear when he gets going. Eg first 6 rounds of 2016 he produced 6 tons and was averaging 126 as a forward. $439k. You would be crazy to go for it but he is the type that is able to do it.

I guess one of the things that can confuse and complicate SC conversations, is that there is no set definition for many of the terms we use.
How I see the Dimma gambit, it would seem impossible for any of the players you mentioned to get even close to achieving it.
As an example, the highest priced of your players, Papley, needs to score 144 five times in a row, to reach $600k in 5 weeks, or 130 to reach $560k.
I think you are more looking for a Stepping Stone type, than a player for the Dimma gambit. Just my thinking, anyone is free to think differently.

I'm actually not keen on taking Stepping Stone players once the season has started, and none of your Sydney options are filling me with confidence.

Manikato makes a good point, to truly go close to Dimma move from a player traded in now, you probably need a player that has shown the ability to go 160+ already, and the ability to do it more than once in a season! Once again, no one is jumping out at me for this right now.

Lenny5 - is spot on. It's good you're thinking outside the box, but I wouldn't limit myself to perceived good Draws.

MC's Mix - you are right, Dimma did trade Cloke out, as many were scrambling to get him in. But if say Papley (just using my pricing example) did go on a 5 week 130+ streak, you can be pretty sure people would be scrambling to get him in, too.

freowho - I agree, if I was locking myself into using a Sydney player, I'd probably go Parker too.

 

[Leroy]

Interesting that people are thinking of Parker. I've just traded him ou after a run of crappy scores 😂

Anyway, on the same topic - imagine if Cripps puts in perhaps two more 135+ scores and then throws out a 90. He'd be perhaps $630-640k with a big BE and you could trade him to Dusty perhaps for 100k "spare" cash. Then bring him back after his bye...? Food for thought.

 

[Professor]

Interesting that people are thinking of Parker. I've just traded him ou after a run of crappy scores 😂

Anyway, on the same topic - imagine if Cripps puts in perhaps two more 135+ scores and then throws out a 90. He'd be perhaps $630-640k with a big BE and you could trade him to Dusty perhaps for 100k "spare" cash. Then bring him back after his bye...? Food for thought.

I've just traded Parker out this week too. No ruck strength for Sydney, except last week against Geelong. Parker is in an evolving midfield and is played forward too. Unfortunately, delivery to the forward line has been lacking and more buddy conscious.

 

[THCLT]

Rather that try to 'reinvent' the Dimma manoeuvre (though it was a master stroke at the time), I would divert the focus into finding that 'siwel shuffle'!

 

[Bermi]

............I think Neale is suffering from Ross trying to get experience into the young blokes. We saw late last season, that when Ross takes Neale out of his mainly Mid role, his SC scoring falls apart. At this stage, I think the risk is too great, to assume he has turned some sort of corner, and he'll be 110(+) now. Ross can throw him back out of the Mid, at anytime. He still manages to get lots of the ball in the "other" role, but it just doesn't seem to translate to good SC scores.........

Hi Rowsus,
so you think Ross is giving more midfield exposure to the young blokes and you think Ross will throw Neale back out of the Mid at any time, so Neale's scoring will be lower.

Well, I've been doing some thinking too
I think that, since Neale was playing with a sore groin since Rd1 in 2017 and since he needed the rest during the preseason to fix his groin, then I think he was always going to have a slow start to the season. I think now, that he had the minor knee operation during the preseason, he is ready to take his rightful position in the midfield. So, I think he will return to his high SC scoring. That's what I think.

Preseason I planned to trade in Neale after he drops in price and hits good form and now I'm ready to trade him in this weekend. I was on a SuperCoach high this week, until you now put some negative thoughts in me, with your thinking, hmmm. So I don't know whether to thank you or curse you

So many thoughts. What are you thinking Ross??? I think I will trade him in.

What do you think of my thinking?

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,

Unfortunately I am still stuck with Billing’s.
With all the other injuries Kreuzer, Buddy , Sloane I have had just to name a few I have been forced to keep him.
Would I be mad to get rid of him now??
I am assuming it would be a waste considering he has dropped so much in value and is now being outperformed by rookies.

 

[Bomber18]

freowho - I agree, if I was locking myself into using a Sydney player, I'd probably go Parker too.

I bloody hope so! He's been driving me nuts of late! Scored 150 in R1 and then was on 85 at HT in R2 but since then he's completely gone missing!

 

[Rowsus]

Interesting that people are thinking of Parker. I've just traded him ou after a run of crappy scores ��

Anyway, on the same topic - imagine if Cripps puts in perhaps two more 135+ scores and then throws out a 90. He'd be perhaps $630-640k with a big BE and you could trade him to Dusty perhaps for 100k "spare" cash. Then bring him back after his bye...? Food for thought.

I've just traded Parker out this week too. No ruck strength for Sydney, except last week against Geelong. Parker is in an evolving midfield and is played forward too. Unfortunately, delivery to the forward line has been lacking and more buddy conscious.

That's one of the really interesting "crossroads" this game throws up, every season.
Hibberd is also a perfect example.
We have people that started with him, getting sick of him, and trading him out, and people who didn't start with him, thinking his price is too good to resist, and trading him in!