Position Forwards Discussion

[Connoisseur]

Thoughts on Clarry’s avg in 2019?

If he improves his kick to handball ratio again (2017=0.4, 2018=0.6) as well as maintaining his contested numbers (CPR= 54.61%, Tackles= 6.86) and potentially increasing Time on Ground (82.91%) he can easily push a 115-125 avg. Only had 3 120+ in 2017 in comparison to 12 120+'s in 2018 as well as 5 games below 90 in his past 44 games with 4 occurring in 2018 thus highlighting both his consistency and ceiling.

Another great thing about Oliver is that his scoring is not heavily dependant on the team's performance due to his contested style.

Wins: 115.19 from 26 (6/26 below 100, 9/26 120+)
2017: 114.08 from 12
2018: 116.14 from 14

Losses: 110 from 18 (5/18 below 100, 6/18 120+)
2017: 108.3 from 10
2018: 112.13 from 8

Only slight concern could be a slow start due to his interrupted pre-season but he should easily finish top 10 again.
Clayton Oliver will have a delayed start to the pre-season after being scheduled to have surgery on both of his shoulders.
"Clayton injured both his shoulders during the year and will require surgery. He will have a latarjet operation on both shoulders," Melbourne football manager Josh Mahoney said.
"It's not as significant as a full shoulder reconstruction, but Clayton will need a 2-3 week separation between the procedures.
"He was unable to complete many contact drills at training in the last two months, so to perform the way that he did in that period is remarkable."

 

[Bomber18]

Danger, Heeney, Gray as starting F1-3 gaining traction early on. Not surprising as I’m a fan of all three in my starting side as well.

 

[Darkie]

Danger, Heeney, Gray as starting F1-3 gaining traction early on. Not surprising as I’m a fan of all three in my starting side as well.

Righto, only 32 votes for Danger - who's the one not starting him?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Danger, Heeney, Gray as starting F1-3 gaining traction early on. Not surprising as I’m a fan of all three in my starting side as well.

I’m warming to Gray, especially if he can start the year like he did in 2018.
Cooling on Heeney though after reviewing his 2018 scores though. I seem to recall that many of his tons early in the season were achieved after a really slow start and then a spike late in the game to just get him over the 100 “line”. Late in the season (after I brought him in) he was just woeful.

 

[Bermi]

I’m warming to Gray, especially if he can start the year like he did in 2018.
Cooling on Heeney though after reviewing his 2018 scores though. I seem to recall that many of his tons early in the season were achieved after a really slow start and then a spike late in the game to just get him over the 100 “line”. Late in the season (after I brought him in) he was just woeful.

Heeney gets thrown around all over the field, even in defence towards the end of the season. Gray scores better when he plays midfield.
Reality is that players play multi positions, so Heeney and Gray will play different roles throughout the year. I've got both in my 'for consideration' and if I can't afford both, then maybe my Bye Structure will decide for me.

 

[Darkie]

I’m warming to Gray, especially if he can start the year like he did in 2018.
Cooling on Heeney though after reviewing his 2018 scores though. I seem to recall that many of his tons early in the season were achieved after a really slow start and then a spike late in the game to just get him over the 100 “line”. Late in the season (after I brought him in) he was just woeful.

I think you are correct re Heeney's scoring - while he was good overall, I often felt like I was crossing my fingers for him to catch up to a decent score. He was a bit frustrating to own at times.

The glass half full view would be that he can obviously score quickly at times, and his lower end and consistency may improve with age/experience/more pre seasons, or perhaps more mid time.

I've only just noticed this but in addition to a slight injury discount (he scored an 18) he averaged 107 before he got injured, then dropped off. Maybe he has a bit more upside if that was causal.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I think you are correct re Heeney's scoring - while he was good overall, I often felt like I was crossing my fingers for him to catch up to a decent score. He was a bit frustrating to own at times.

The glass half full view would be that he can obviously score quickly at times, and his lower end and consistency may improve with age/experience/more pre seasons, or perhaps more mid time.

I've only just noticed this but in addition to a slight injury discount (he scored an 18) he averaged 107 before he got injured, then dropped off. Maybe he has a bit more upside if that was causal.

Good point re the injury. Was it a concussion ?

 

[Darkie]

Good point re the injury. Was it a concussion ?

Good prompt - I had largely forgotten, but it was (backing up the ongoing impact idea). From Footywire:

Thursday, 28 June 2018
Isaac Heeney suffers a delayed concussion against Richmond at Etihad Stadium.
Heeney appeared to cop a knock midway through the second quarter, but returned to the game to see out the half.
He started the third quarter on the field, only to come back to the bench midway through the term, when Sydney officials ruled him out for the rest of the match.
Riley Beveridge for AFL.com.au

 

[PC]

I haven't had Heeney for the last two years and last year in particular it hurt - I am starting him this year, very important player for the Swans.

 

[BigRuss]

One of the Swanny supporters may correct me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Heeney has never done a full pre season and still scores at a premium level. If he gets through this one unscathed I think there’s a bloody good chance he explodes a lot like Cripps did this season.

Would have made my side as a MID only this year, pre season pending. Extremely talented footballer.

 

[pizza safety]

One of the Swanny supporters may correct me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Heeney has never done a full pre season and still scores at a premium level. If he gets through this one unscathed I think there’s a bloody good chance he explodes a lot like Cripps did this season.

Would have made my side as a MID only this year, pre season pending. Extremely talented footballer.

Massive ceiling on him, hasn't really found a way to consistently accumulate a lot of the ball yet, but give him time. Instead of waiting for the Bont to explode year after year in the midfield we can at least wait for the same thing with Heeney in the forward line.

 

[Darkie]

One of the Swanny supporters may correct me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Heeney has never done a full pre season and still scores at a premium level. If he gets through this one unscathed I think there’s a bloody good chance he explodes a lot like Cripps did this season.

Would have made my side as a MID only this year, pre season pending. Extremely talented footballer.

If you include knee tendinitis, it appears you are spot on:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/player-biography/4026.html

At a minimum he hasn't got a proper pre season in for 2017 (glandular) or 2018 (minor knee surgery). He also missed two AFL games in 2016 because he was "cooked" after playing more mid time (indicating his prior fitness levels may not have been adequate to repeatedly run out games in the midfield).

 

[Bomber18]

One of the Swanny supporters may correct me on this, but I’m fairly certain that Heeney has never done a full pre season and still scores at a premium level. If he gets through this one unscathed I think there’s a bloody good chance he explodes a lot like Cripps did this season.

Would have made my side as a MID only this year, pre season pending. Extremely talented footballer.

Ditto. I reckon he'll go 110+ pretty soon

 

[Manikato1]

As a Melbourne fan, my advice would be, stay away from our Midfielders, outside of Oliver. We have so many that can play Mid/Fwd/Wing, they are just not likely to get a good, regular go at it. We just roll them through, and a player that plays 60% one week or two, might 25-30% the next few games.

So that includes Angus Brayshaw. I quite like his numbers this year and thought he had some improvement still to come. Appreciate your thoughts on him.

 

[Santoz]

Only 1 vote for Menegola which is surprising. Basically averaged 100 across 3 seasons & nobody rates him.

He's in my reworked v2.0 side.

 

[Darkie]

Only 1 vote for Menegola which is surprising. Basically averaged 100 across 3 seasons & nobody rates him.

He's in my reworked v2.0 side.

It does seem low, especially with Gaz seemingly playing less mid time this year.

Danger and Heeney are the runaway leaders though, and they have the same bye as Menegola. Noone has voted for the #2 or 4 forwards either ... bit of a logjam with Geelong/Sydney players.

Other than Lynch or Greene, I can’t think of a round 14 forward that has been discussed.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Only 1 vote for Menegola which is surprising. Basically averaged 100 across 3 seasons & nobody rates him.

He's in my reworked v2.0 side.

Shhhhhhh!

 

[Bermi]

It does seem low, especially with Gaz seemingly playing less mid time this year.
Danger and Heeney are the runaway leaders though, and they have the same bye as Menegola. Noone has voted for the #2 or 4 forwards either ... bit of a logjam with Geelong/Sydney players.
Other than Lynch or Greene, I can’t think of a round 14 forward that has been discussed.

Byes – RD 14: ADE, CAR, GCS, GWS, NM, RIC
Hmmm, not many interesting SC forwards in those teams.
Lambert is a possibility, as his SC pts avg is improving every year, but he is an inconsistent scorer.
But there are lots of Rd14 Fwd Rookies to choose from.

 

[Grant]

Only 1 vote for Menegola which is surprising. Basically averaged 100 across 3 seasons & nobody rates him.

He's in my reworked v2.0 side.

You'll have to change your vote then to make it 2 so I have some company in the Menegola vote club.

I knew he would be a pod but not this much of a pod.

 

[Santoz]

You'll have to change your vote then to make it 2 so I have some company in the Menegola vote club.

I knew he would be a pod but not this much of a pod.

Done. Vote changed.