Position Forwards Discussion
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Josh Dunkley (516.3k mid-fwd)
2018 Average: 95.1
Average from Round 15 (last 9 games): 115.7
Average from Round 18 (last 6 games): 127.1
Average from Rounds 15-17 (first 3 games of the 9 game stretch): 93 (105, 86 & 88)
You could argue that the high average of those last 9 games is really from his last 6 and we’re really paying way overs for 6 good games. However, if you look at his AFL fantasy scores in those first 3 games you might see that he “did” in fact change as player starting in Round 15 and that these bad scores should stabilise over time. In fantasy he scored 112, 109 and 99 for a 3 week average of 106.6 from Rounds 15-17. Later on this would reverse and his SC scores started to get bigger than his AFL fantasy scores. Although I don’t think the 1:1 ratio is always valid in this instance I think it is because it shows that Dunkley had 9 weeks with plenty of disposals and tackles and it was something like poor ball use or bad team performances that lowered his scores from rounds 15-17. What we want is more proof that Dunkley “changed” as a player in those 9 games and I think we get that from the AFL fantasy scores.
Some have compared Dunkley to Billings as a trap but there’s just not many similarities in their trajectory or style and the only similarity is the fact you’re paying overs for a guy who hasn’t backed it up (in this case for no more than 9 games). It would probably be much better if Dunkley didn’t go as berserk at the end of the year because he’d be cheaper. Anyone picking him should know that the high scores aren’t sustainable, nobody goes from averaging 77 to 127 within half a season. But given they were the last 9 performances of a player in his 3rd year you can make the judgement that they symbolise change. 9 games for a young player in his 3rd season is still a decent and moderately trustworthy sample size. I think the earlier in a career a change happens, the more likely it is to last. Many picked McLean and Sicily last year off the back of 10 games in their 3rd and 4th year and Dunkley isn’t far off
With Wingard, Devon and Gray under injury clouds I’m sure many will turn to him. He has a better bye than Menegola or T Kelly. Role is another concern…I think an average of 95-105 is definitely attainable with decent mid time.
2018 Average: 95.1
Average from Round 15 (last 9 games): 115.7
Average from Round 18 (last 6 games): 127.1
Average from Rounds 15-17 (first 3 games of the 9 game stretch): 93 (105, 86 & 88)
You could argue that the high average of those last 9 games is really from his last 6 and we’re really paying way overs for 6 good games. However, if you look at his AFL fantasy scores in those first 3 games you might see that he “did” in fact change as player starting in Round 15 and that these bad scores should stabilise over time. In fantasy he scored 112, 109 and 99 for a 3 week average of 106.6 from Rounds 15-17. Later on this would reverse and his SC scores started to get bigger than his AFL fantasy scores. Although I don’t think the 1:1 ratio is always valid in this instance I think it is because it shows that Dunkley had 9 weeks with plenty of disposals and tackles and it was something like poor ball use or bad team performances that lowered his scores from rounds 15-17. What we want is more proof that Dunkley “changed” as a player in those 9 games and I think we get that from the AFL fantasy scores.
Some have compared Dunkley to Billings as a trap but there’s just not many similarities in their trajectory or style and the only similarity is the fact you’re paying overs for a guy who hasn’t backed it up (in this case for no more than 9 games). It would probably be much better if Dunkley didn’t go as berserk at the end of the year because he’d be cheaper. Anyone picking him should know that the high scores aren’t sustainable, nobody goes from averaging 77 to 127 within half a season. But given they were the last 9 performances of a player in his 3rd year you can make the judgement that they symbolise change. 9 games for a young player in his 3rd season is still a decent and moderately trustworthy sample size. I think the earlier in a career a change happens, the more likely it is to last. Many picked McLean and Sicily last year off the back of 10 games in their 3rd and 4th year and Dunkley isn’t far off
With Wingard, Devon and Gray under injury clouds I’m sure many will turn to him. He has a better bye than Menegola or T Kelly. Role is another concern…I think an average of 95-105 is definitely attainable with decent mid time.
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As Pieman said, there will be players to pick forward, but I’m after sub 200k rookies that will score decently enough to play on field for 6+weeks.
I feel pretty confident we’ll get 5 of Williamson, Rozee, Collins, Quaynor, Clark Logue, Wilkie, McKay, Hore & Wigg and be able to trust 3 of them on field.
As for forward rookies Rankine, Rozee, Setterfield & Blakey look to me like the only ones I’d really trust on field. Burgess playing KPP for a bottom 2 side, Cavara will likely be playing pressure forward for a team that kicked 70 points a game last season and I don’t know enough of Parker to make make a solid judgement.
All speculation this far out from actual footy, but I feel much more comfortable with the def crop than the forwards. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, if that’s the case, as I like more defender premiums than forwards at this stage.
I feel pretty confident we’ll get 5 of Williamson, Rozee, Collins, Quaynor, Clark Logue, Wilkie, McKay, Hore & Wigg and be able to trust 3 of them on field.
As for forward rookies Rankine, Rozee, Setterfield & Blakey look to me like the only ones I’d really trust on field. Burgess playing KPP for a bottom 2 side, Cavara will likely be playing pressure forward for a team that kicked 70 points a game last season and I don’t know enough of Parker to make make a solid judgement.
All speculation this far out from actual footy, but I feel much more comfortable with the def crop than the forwards. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, if that’s the case, as I like more defender premiums than forwards at this stage.
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I agree they generally score worse but it's the JS and supply that stands out at the moment. I just wouldn't pay the money for Williams, Collins, or Rozee to be honest, I wouldn't pay the money for Blakey, Rozee or Rankine in the forward line either. Dew seemed to say Corbett and Burgess were ahead of Collins in an interview I posted earlier. Cavarra was a ball winning forward at VFL level and he averaged 17 disposals, 5 tackles and 97 SC points, I think in a really poor forward line he is a lock to get games. Setterfield will be pretty good if he plays and should get mid time, Corbett and Parker (a pressure forward the saints need) should have pretty good JS as bench options. Then there's McAdam, Stengle, McHenry, Schultz, Young, Wilkinson and Dylan Moore presenting themselves as possible rookie picks under 140k in the forward line. There's just a lack of hype or information on players in the back line this early on and I know we don't know anything for sure but based on what I've read I think this is an unusual year where we have forward rookies and not many viable back line rookies
There might be more FWD rookies but there are few that I’d feel comfortable with onfield. Setterfield if he gets up for rd1 should be ok. Parker/Cavarra may be ok but could also be stuck playing a pressure fwd role which is poison for SC scoring. Corbett may have a few good games but can also see lots of 30-40 types scores. Burgess I don’t know a lot about so will have to wait and see. The rest of the of them are mainly small/pressure forwards who I’d expect to have Zach Langdon type scoring if they get a game.
Quaynor looks likely for rd 1, Collins may be slightly behind according to Dew but still 5 weeks to go and we have seen him score at a reasonable level. Hore has scored well at VFL level. Then you have Wigg, Wilkie, McKay, Scrimshaw, Clark, Cox, Watson, Logue and a few others. Some will probably be bench fodder only but a few of those are high draft picks/2nd-3rd players that have potential.
Ultimately, JLT and rd 1 will tell us more, but at least it looks like we have options.
Quaynor looks likely for rd 1, Collins may be slightly behind according to Dew but still 5 weeks to go and we have seen him score at a reasonable level. Hore has scored well at VFL level. Then you have Wigg, Wilkie, McKay, Scrimshaw, Clark, Cox, Watson, Logue and a few others. Some will probably be bench fodder only but a few of those are high draft picks/2nd-3rd players that have potential.
Ultimately, JLT and rd 1 will tell us more, but at least it looks like we have options.
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I think Wigg is unlikely to start round 1, same with Wilkie because the saints are well stocked in defence, McKay will probably play but won't score well, Scrimshaw I don't see scoring that well and probably doesn't start round 1, Clark probably doesn't start R1 after a preasaon with glandular, not sure who Cox is, Watson probably won't start R1, Logue probably won't score well but will start. Last year everyone had Murray and Doedee on our radar and this year there's no one really standing out. There were only 4 reliable guys to pick in defence come round 1, all of whom scored well. Many had Murphy at D8 and were 5 deep in the forward line.
Always good to gain an alternate view mate, much appreciated.
I agree with you in that I’d much rather not pay 150+ for rookies. I do think though that it’s a lot easier to poke holes in the forward rookies you’ve mentioned than the defenders.
Lots of second year players and first round picks in defence whereas it seems we have nothing but first year players forward.
Burgess and Corbett may well be ahead of Collins but there’s nothing that leads me to believe that they have the capacity to score enough to be trusted on field.
Cavarra played in a side that finished 4th and won 3/4 of their games last year, likely meaning there was a lot of ball in their forward half, something I’d be very surprised if the dogs can replicate.
I really like Robbie Young and have seen him play quite a bit of footy but he isn’t, hasn’t been and never will be an afl standard player unless he’s transformed his game significantly over a very short period of time. He’s traditionally been a low disposal player whenever I’ve watched him, which likely gets exacerbated at St Kilda.
I won’t go through every player you’ve mentioned, but to me it looks like most of the forward rookies are late/rookie picks who are either playing KPP or pressure roles, generally quite unprofitable scorers.
I agree with you in that I’d much rather not pay 150+ for rookies. I do think though that it’s a lot easier to poke holes in the forward rookies you’ve mentioned than the defenders.
Lots of second year players and first round picks in defence whereas it seems we have nothing but first year players forward.
Burgess and Corbett may well be ahead of Collins but there’s nothing that leads me to believe that they have the capacity to score enough to be trusted on field.
Cavarra played in a side that finished 4th and won 3/4 of their games last year, likely meaning there was a lot of ball in their forward half, something I’d be very surprised if the dogs can replicate.
I really like Robbie Young and have seen him play quite a bit of footy but he isn’t, hasn’t been and never will be an afl standard player unless he’s transformed his game significantly over a very short period of time. He’s traditionally been a low disposal player whenever I’ve watched him, which likely gets exacerbated at St Kilda.
I won’t go through every player you’ve mentioned, but to me it looks like most of the forward rookies are late/rookie picks who are either playing KPP or pressure roles, generally quite unprofitable scorers.
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Cheers Russ I know what you mean and I would agree but I just don't see anything better in the back line. Williamson was a guy who averaged 47 and is coming off an injury, Rozee averaged 66 as a forward in the SANFL and that's where he will play for Port (you may as well pick Rankine), Collins already had a massive year as an interceptor at state level and that form didn't seem to translate to the AFL, Quaynor is in my side but I'm not confident he'll even start round 1 or score that well, there's no junior player entering the league with an average at the u/18 champs as good as Naughton. Hopefully some emerge, but going through the names and looking in the prospectus I'm not finding much promise. Happy to be proven wrong.
I would agree not all of the forwards are scorer friendly but between them there could be enough JS to have 2 on the bench and 3 on field. I project that Cavarra and Setterfield will score 60+ which is fine and hopefully Dylan Moore, McHenry or Stengle can start Round 1 as those guys seem to actually have ok scoring potential.
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I'd personally have more faith in Cavarra than Quaynor, 97 average in the VFL is more promising than a 74 average at the u/18 championships. It's hard to say how well Collins will score if he plays and if he scores better than Setterfield because he's dominated the WAFL in the past but failed to get into the firsts. Cavarra used to be a midfielder and I think he won't just be scoring a couple of goals and tackling, I think he will get some disposals and average in the 60's. You'd also have to think he's got better job security.