Hi Eagling,
the short answer is no, I can't see any value in it.
There are certain sets of circumstances, where one might pull a move like that, and while the best time is during the MBR's in a slingshot manouvre, it is not limited to that period.
Like any trade gamble, you have to look at what you are giving up, and weigh it against what you potentially gain.
In this particular scenario, you'd be trading Gawn to a player that is currently averaging 30+ less than Gawn. While you'd be pocketing somewhere around $250-$300k, you'd be losing the current highest scorer in the game.
For this to work, you need one of two things to happen:
Gawn becomes injured, or suddenly drops drastically in form.
Or
You manage to use that cash to make improvements to your team, that total around 60-70*/game, that you might not have otherwise been able to make.
That last point is very important. If you could make those improvements, even if it takes 2 or 3 Rounds, then you have foregone one of your better scorers, for no apparent reason.
I have a template I like to follow, if I am going to make a move like this.
The player should be overpriced by at least 18-20 pts/game. Gawn is currently priced around 143/game, so is only overpriced by 12/game.
The player should have a high B/E. This provides a safety net, where if the trade is identified as regrettable, then the opportunity to undo it, and trade the player back in at a lower price than what you traded them out for, will present itself. Gawn's B/E of 126 is a score he has equalled or bettered in 5 of his last 5, 8 of his last 9, and 9 of his last 11 games.
The process should land you 2 Keepers, from the simple use of 3 trades, not 3.5 or 4 trades.
The reason you need a 60-70/game improvement is that Gawn represents a decent VC/C option, and you are using 3 trades. If you return less than this, you are negating his VC/C value, and not getting your full trades worth from the transactions.
The other set of circumstances, where a scenario similar to this might be considered, is basic desperation. I wouldn't however, sacrifice a Gawn to do it.
Here is an example of what I'm talking about, using my own team as an example.
I am very low on trades. Coming into Round 14 I only had 6 left!
I had 2 options. Exhaust my last few Cows from the bench, and be left with cover that all pretty much had low JS and/or are poor scorers. It's too far out to do that, so to get what I will have to call a complete team, I have gone down the following path:
I cashed Zilliams down to Burton (+$168,000). - theory being that Williams has only averaged 90 when playing with Whitfield, Burton was priced at 66/game, but had a 7 in his pricing cycle, that just dropped out. He had averaged 88 in his first 4 games, and 84 2 seasons ago. If I could get 80-82 from him, and Williams dropped back to low 90's from here to the finish, I was confident I could turn the $168,000 into a win.
I traded Libba to Sidebottom (-$57,200) - Libba was a long term injury, This trade got a 50 point rookie off the field, and put a 100 point player on the field. It was also done with the hope and intention, that the remaining $110,800 + my cash reserve, would allow me to do ROB to Grundy in one trade, in Round 16. Unfortunately, Grundy scuttled those plans with his 170 on the weekend.
I now find myself in a position where I will definitely need more cash to get ROB to Grundy, unless ROB outscores Grundy by 40+ this week. Not something I will sit by and wait to see if it happens. This pushes me to do a similar scenario this week,
Hore/Andrews/Milera to Logue (+$260K ?) - this will leave my Def line at (using Hore as an example):
Ryan, Stewart, Andrews, Milera, Burton/Logue/Duursma looping by using Naish, who I suspect soon becomes a donut. It's a weak Def line, and lacks Lloyd/Whitfield, but it is what it is.
Balta to Lycett (-$211,000) - Lycett is terrible value, and will likely not return anything close to his price. What it does do, is improve my current F6 (Baker L) by around 15/game, and provides Ruck cover. If I had 2 or 3 more trades, I would probably ride Gawn/Grundy, and not worry about cover, and look at at it if/when they missed a game. Lycett is the only viable R/F option, and will soon cost $550k, before he starts to drop again. It's not a great move, and not one I'd recommend to those that have 6 or more trades up their sleeve, but it suits my circumstances.
This will leave me enough cash to go ROB to Grundy in one trade in Round 16.
My team will be nearly embarrasingly bad, with only myself to blame.
After the Round 16 Grundy trade, it should look like:
Ryan, Stewart, Andrew, Milera/Burton/Logue [Duursma, Naish]
Kelly, Macrae, Cripps, Neale, Oliver, Bontempelli, Sidebotton, Rockliff [Setterfield, Baker O, Clarke]
Gawn, Grundy [Bines]
Dangerfield, Kelly, Daniel, Marshall, Lycett, Greene [Baker L, Larkey]
1 trade left, and $20-30k.
Turning Williams/Hore into Burton/Logue hopefully will only cost around 15-20/game.
Using that cash to turn Libba (on field Rookie)/Balta/ROB into Sidebottom/Lycett/Grundy should hopefully result in a 100-110/Round improvement. I potentially could have used Duursma/Setterfield/Baker L to try and achieve the same results, but at the expense of having the likes of Balta/Larkey/Baker O as cover.
Once again, not something I recommend, but done under desperate circumstances!
the short answer is no, I can't see any value in it.
There are certain sets of circumstances, where one might pull a move like that, and while the best time is during the MBR's in a slingshot manouvre, it is not limited to that period.
Like any trade gamble, you have to look at what you are giving up, and weigh it against what you potentially gain.
In this particular scenario, you'd be trading Gawn to a player that is currently averaging 30+ less than Gawn. While you'd be pocketing somewhere around $250-$300k, you'd be losing the current highest scorer in the game.
For this to work, you need one of two things to happen:
Gawn becomes injured, or suddenly drops drastically in form.
Or
You manage to use that cash to make improvements to your team, that total around 60-70*/game, that you might not have otherwise been able to make.
That last point is very important. If you could make those improvements, even if it takes 2 or 3 Rounds, then you have foregone one of your better scorers, for no apparent reason.
I have a template I like to follow, if I am going to make a move like this.
The player should be overpriced by at least 18-20 pts/game. Gawn is currently priced around 143/game, so is only overpriced by 12/game.
The player should have a high B/E. This provides a safety net, where if the trade is identified as regrettable, then the opportunity to undo it, and trade the player back in at a lower price than what you traded them out for, will present itself. Gawn's B/E of 126 is a score he has equalled or bettered in 5 of his last 5, 8 of his last 9, and 9 of his last 11 games.
The process should land you 2 Keepers, from the simple use of 3 trades, not 3.5 or 4 trades.
The reason you need a 60-70/game improvement is that Gawn represents a decent VC/C option, and you are using 3 trades. If you return less than this, you are negating his VC/C value, and not getting your full trades worth from the transactions.
The other set of circumstances, where a scenario similar to this might be considered, is basic desperation. I wouldn't however, sacrifice a Gawn to do it.
Here is an example of what I'm talking about, using my own team as an example.
I am very low on trades. Coming into Round 14 I only had 6 left!
I had 2 options. Exhaust my last few Cows from the bench, and be left with cover that all pretty much had low JS and/or are poor scorers. It's too far out to do that, so to get what I will have to call a complete team, I have gone down the following path:
I cashed Zilliams down to Burton (+$168,000). - theory being that Williams has only averaged 90 when playing with Whitfield, Burton was priced at 66/game, but had a 7 in his pricing cycle, that just dropped out. He had averaged 88 in his first 4 games, and 84 2 seasons ago. If I could get 80-82 from him, and Williams dropped back to low 90's from here to the finish, I was confident I could turn the $168,000 into a win.
I traded Libba to Sidebottom (-$57,200) - Libba was a long term injury, This trade got a 50 point rookie off the field, and put a 100 point player on the field. It was also done with the hope and intention, that the remaining $110,800 + my cash reserve, would allow me to do ROB to Grundy in one trade, in Round 16. Unfortunately, Grundy scuttled those plans with his 170 on the weekend.
I now find myself in a position where I will definitely need more cash to get ROB to Grundy, unless ROB outscores Grundy by 40+ this week. Not something I will sit by and wait to see if it happens. This pushes me to do a similar scenario this week,
Hore/Andrews/Milera to Logue (+$260K ?) - this will leave my Def line at (using Hore as an example):
Ryan, Stewart, Andrews, Milera, Burton/Logue/Duursma looping by using Naish, who I suspect soon becomes a donut. It's a weak Def line, and lacks Lloyd/Whitfield, but it is what it is.
Balta to Lycett (-$211,000) - Lycett is terrible value, and will likely not return anything close to his price. What it does do, is improve my current F6 (Baker L) by around 15/game, and provides Ruck cover. If I had 2 or 3 more trades, I would probably ride Gawn/Grundy, and not worry about cover, and look at at it if/when they missed a game. Lycett is the only viable R/F option, and will soon cost $550k, before he starts to drop again. It's not a great move, and not one I'd recommend to those that have 6 or more trades up their sleeve, but it suits my circumstances.
This will leave me enough cash to go ROB to Grundy in one trade in Round 16.
My team will be nearly embarrasingly bad, with only myself to blame.
After the Round 16 Grundy trade, it should look like:
Ryan, Stewart, Andrew, Milera/Burton/Logue [Duursma, Naish]
Kelly, Macrae, Cripps, Neale, Oliver, Bontempelli, Sidebotton, Rockliff [Setterfield, Baker O, Clarke]
Gawn, Grundy [Bines]
Dangerfield, Kelly, Daniel, Marshall, Lycett, Greene [Baker L, Larkey]
1 trade left, and $20-30k.
Turning Williams/Hore into Burton/Logue hopefully will only cost around 15-20/game.
Using that cash to turn Libba (on field Rookie)/Balta/ROB into Sidebottom/Lycett/Grundy should hopefully result in a 100-110/Round improvement. I potentially could have used Duursma/Setterfield/Baker L to try and achieve the same results, but at the expense of having the likes of Balta/Larkey/Baker O as cover.
Once again, not something I recommend, but done under desperate circumstances!
