Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

[Darkie]

Oliver definitely a great price, but he needs more support, Melbourne's mids a pretty weak, ie slow, injury prone, need some youth and I haven't seen anything new introduced. Yeo's a beast, hope he can be the recipient of some nice tapwork from NicNat. He might have some competition from Tim Kelly, imagine how good he would be in an Eagles midfield.

I was wondering whether Yeo or Gaff would be a safer way of addressing the temptation to start NicNat

 

[Herbie66]

They always seem to turn up (as much as everyone, including me, freaks out about it every year).

If we are a couple short I can always downgrade or eliminate a premium. Might as well start the process with the good ones though. There’s seldom millions left in extra cash to allow room for all the big guns at the end!

Interesting because a number of the first round draft picks didn't debut (as I posted previously) but also a number of players in the mid-season draft didn't feature as well , so presuming they stay on the list and have benefitted from being in the AFL environment in the last 3-4 months they could be worthwhile starters as well.

Liking the 3-4- Gawn/Grundy- 3 to start though

 

[Darkie]

Interesting because a number of the first round draft picks didn't debut (as I posted previously) but also a number of players in the mid-season draft didn't feature as well , so presuming they stay on the list and have benefitted from being in the AFL environment in the last 3-4 months they could be worthwhile starters as well.

Liking the 3-4- Gawn/Grundy- 3 to start though

Good points. The higher priced rookies include the occasional must have (eg Walsh) but in general are probably no better SC players in year one, for scoring or JS. If you can get them the next year cheaper, I reckon that’s significantly better.

 

[Herbie66]

So I’ve been through final averages (/likely pricing) and come up with the below as a rough starting side.

I’ve assumed 20% discounts for Docherty and Mitchell, and some positional changes.

Docherty, Lloyd, Laird

Mitchell, Macrae, Cripps, Oliver

Grundy, Gawn

Danger, Dusty, cheap option (maybe Heeney)

Leaves around 150k each for 18 rookies.

Another site I frequent have Docherty at $ 409,930.00 and Titch at $ 561,859.00 so you might be able to squeeze in the 13th premium, no use worrying too much about it until prices and positions are confirmed

 

[Herbie66]

Good points. The higher priced rookies include the occasional must have (eg Walsh) but in general are probably no better SC players in year one, for scoring or JS. If you can get them the next year cheaper, I reckon that’s significantly better.

Riordan, Knoll, Hosie, Mayo , O'Reilly, Pickett & Hirst were all the players taken in the mid season draft and did not debut.

Not sure if they are guaranteed a spot on clubs lists next season or not, but were all priced at $ 102,400.00 so not sure if their price will go up or not.

 

[Herbie66]

So Ward averaged 4 this year, 1 game, priced at 568k. Do you know how his price will work?

Another site I visit have him priced at $ 397,600.00 for next season.

 

[Herbie66]

So I’ve been through final averages (/likely pricing) and come up with the below as a rough starting side.

I’ve assumed 20% discounts for Docherty and Mitchell, and some positional changes.

Docherty, Lloyd, Laird

Mitchell, Macrae, Cripps, Oliver

Grundy, Gawn

Danger, Dusty, cheap option (maybe Heeney)

Leaves around 150k each for 18 rookies.

I have you at $ 7,081,260.00

 

[Eagling]

Anyone interested in Doedee?

 

[Herbie66]

Anyone interested in Doedee?

he and Rance might be priced around $ 310 k so possibly could be used as stepping stones

 

[Spots]

Riordan, Knoll, Hosie, Mayo , O'Reilly, Pickett & Hirst were all the players taken in the mid season draft and did not debut.

Not sure if they are guaranteed a spot on clubs lists next season or not, but were all priced at $ 102,400.00 so not sure if their price will go up or not.

I expect Pickett to see quite a bit of game time next year... first picked for me I'd say

 

[Herbie66]

I expect Pickett to see quite a bit of game time next year... first picked for me I'd say

I can't remember now if they were guaranteed spots next season or not (you would hope so) , were big wraps on him and was close to debuting in Round 23, could still feature in the finals.

Even better if he stays at $ 102,400.00

 

[Spots]

I can't remember now if they were guaranteed spots next season or not (you would hope so) , were big wraps on him and was close to debuting in Round 23, could still feature in the finals.

Even better if he stays at $ 102,400.00

They got a minimum of something like $50k to get signed up for the second half of the year I think, then the club had the option to give them a 2 year contract or delist at year end... thats how I remember it anyway

 

[Darkie]

Another site I frequent have Docherty at $ 409,930.00 and Titch at $ 561,859.00 so you might be able to squeeze in the 13th premium, no use worrying too much about it until prices and positions are confirmed

Wait ... you frequent ... other sites?

 

[Darkie]

I have you at $ 7,081,260.00

That would be excellent, I think I got $7.26m using a magic number of 5,500.

$180k difference probably doesn’t seem like much but can obviously be all the difference in getting a starting side you’re really happy with, versus one with multiple compromises (especially if you’re unwilling to make one big compromise, like starting on fewer premium).

As an observation/aside, one reason why I’ve tended to shy away from starting full priced absolute top scorers is a focus on value - which appears to make sense in a game with a budget constraint. With that said, realistically I might have been squeezing 50k discounts out of say 5 extra players (given there are always some obvious cheapies that almost everyone has), so it’s like $250k extra in the budget.

Looking at the value of quite a lot of good teams mid season, I ended up behind by at least that much. I think I might have been somewhat overvaluing an up-front discount versus things like certainty of output, structural and trading flexibility etc. I plan to tilt the other way next year as a result.

 

[Herbie66]

Wait ... you frequent ... other sites?

of course , some have reasonable standard and quality of late ?

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

DBJ 97 average with a 7 in there is nothing to sneeze at.

You think he will play midfield next year? Has gone pretty well since the role change.

 

[randomcliche]

So I’ve been through final averages (/likely pricing) and come up with the below as a rough starting side.

I’ve assumed 20% discounts for Docherty and Mitchell, and some positional changes.

Docherty, Lloyd, Laird

Mitchell, Macrae, Cripps, Oliver

Grundy, Gawn

Danger, Dusty, cheap option (maybe Heeney)

Leaves around 150k each for 18 rookies.

I think it was a 35% forward role that made the cut-off for forward eligible mids last season. Danger didn't do that this year I think. It was only his games early in the last season playing dedicated forward that got him there last year. Dusty I'm not sure on. I wouldn't rely on Danger F1, but take it if it comes...

 

[Schods25]

Done some rough calculations and picked a side from it

DEF - Lloyd, Williams, Docherty, Rance
MID - Fyfe, Treloar, Cripps, Mitchell, Ward, Rowell/Anderson (expected picks 1 and 2 of draft)
RUC - Grundy, Gawn
FWD - Dangerfield, Martin, Greene, Patton

 

[Courtesans]

Not for me, worn out.

 

[Darkie]

I think it was a 35% forward role that made the cut-off for forward eligible mids last season. Danger didn't do that this year I think. It was only his games early in the last season playing dedicated forward that got him there last year. Dusty I'm not sure on. I wouldn't rely on Danger F1, but take it if it comes...

Thanks mate. I think @pizza safety had a good indicator on this, and Danger made the cut from memory ... personally I wouldn’t have been/wont be surprised to see him mid only, but he’s obviously appealing if he’s forward eligible.

The forward line looks the most interesting to me. There aren’t many premium locks (especially if we lose more M-F types than we gain) but there are a large number of potentially viable cheaper options, even ones you could argue are proper premiums. The forward rookies are usually shallow/not great as well.

If I end up going cheaper/deeper on a particular line, I reckon it’s up forward, with guys like Smith, Menegola, Ablett, Buddy and Wingard all looking worthy of consideration.