Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

[Bontempele]

Estimated Prices for 2020 (based on last season's MN & Average for Sloane)

Grundy 132.7 $ 720,358.34
Gawn 124.9 $ 678,016.26
Neale 121.7 $ 660,645.14
Macrae 120.1 $ 651,959.59
Fyfe119.9 $ 650,873.89
Kelly, J 119.8 $ 650,331.04
Cripps 116.3 $ 631,331.39
Dunkley 114.1 $ 619,388.75
Dangerfield 114.0 $ 618,845.90
Lloyd 113.9 $ 618,303.05

Thanks for that!
I would say Neale is probably a bit overpriced after some random big scores early. Fyfe is no longer discounted, so probably better to wait until an injury. Kelly the same. Dunkley could potentially have a few low scores, so best to avoid him.
I think Cripps has to be a lock, and probably Lloyd too after backing up last year. Danger certainly if he's a forward, possibly not if he's a mid.
I think Grundy Gawn just have to be locked in again, and maybe Macrae as a reliable 3rd captaincy option.

 

[manyproblems]

Estimated Prices for 2020 (based on last season's MN & Average for Sloane)

Grundy 132.7 $ 720,358.34 Yes
Gawn 124.9 $ 678,016.26 Yes but depends on alternatives
Neale 121.7 $ 660,645.14 Upgrade Target
Macrae 120.1 $ 651,959.59 Yes goat
Fyfe 119.9 $ 650,873.89 No
Kelly, J 119.8 $ 650,331.04 No, inj prone
Cripps 116.3 $ 631,331.39 Yes
Dunkley 114.1 $ 619,388.75 Probably
Dangerfield 114.0 $ 618,845.90 Upgrade Target, 30 and injuries creeping in
Lloyd 113.9 $ 618,303.05 Yes

 

[Herbie66]

Thanks for that!
I would say Neale is probably a bit overpriced after some random big scores early. Fyfe is no longer discounted, so probably better to wait until an injury. Kelly the same. Dunkley could potentially have a few low scores, so best to avoid him.
I think Cripps has to be a lock, and probably Lloyd too after backing up last year. Danger certainly if he's a forward, possibly not if he's a mid.
I think Grundy Gawn just have to be locked in again, and maybe Macrae as a reliable 3rd captaincy option.

No worries , will try to get something similar after Round 23 just to give people a rough idea.

Not sure how they will discount Mitchell & Docherty but that will have a big bearing.

Cripps , Gawn , Grundy , Lloyd will all be locked for me unless something happens between now and Round 1.

 

[Nest]

What's the minimum game requirement for a discount? Thinking about Birchall if he goes around next year - already priced at 205k this year. Will he go lower?

 

[Herbie66]

What's the minimum game requirement for a discount? Thinking about Birchall if he goes around next year - already priced at 205k this year. Will he go lower?

< than 8

6 & 7 games should get a 10% discount
4 & 5 games should get a 20% discount
1, 2 & 3 games can be 20-40% depending on games played and what they averaged

next season's starting price are based on this season's average

 

[manyproblems]

< than 8

6 & 7 games should get a 10% discount
4 & 5 games should get a 20% discount
1, 2 & 3 games can be 20-40% depending on games played and what they averaged

next season's starting price are based on this season's average

So Ward averaged 4 this year, 1 game, priced at 568k. Do you know how his price will work?

 

[Herbie66]

So Ward averaged 4 this year, 1 game, priced at 568k. Do you know how his price will work?

tbh no......I suspect he will be a "special case" similar to Libba this season who scored 13 in 1 game.

Ward should receive a discount so depends how generous they are whether it is 20, 30 or 40 %

Similar to Docherty I doubt he gets the full injury discount again, they may just go back to his 2017 Average

Mitchell should get the full discount on his starting price for this year.

 

[pizza safety]

Champion Data are still saying Whitfield is a mid-forward on their player ratings, I'm definitely picking him if he is one. I think he's being hurt by Kelly being out at the moment, he and cogs need to come back so he can avoid some of the tags. That's if cogs stays obviously.

 

[Grundogging]

A Brayshaw a chance at a decent M/F mid price pick next year?

The Freo one that is

I'll be sweating on the pre-seasons of Cerra, Blakely, Tucker and Langdon (all for different reasons) before I look at Brayshaw. Also depends on what happens with Mundy, Hill, et al.

Personally I think the Hamish is the Brayshaw brother to keep an eye on - been tearing it up in the WAFL all year and isn't far away. Very nice size for a contested ball / tackling midfielder and I reckon he's a fair chance of eclipsing the other two before too long.

 

[yakka]

Grundy locked and loaded

 

[Darkie]

Grundy locked and loaded

2 years of 22 games @ 130 now.

No second ruck of any note to worry about. 2 years younger than Gawn, 4 younger than NicNat and 6 younger than Goldy.

Pretty hard to argue with.

 

[Herbie66]

So it looks like the following 1st Round Draft picks did not debut, should receive a 30% discount on their starting price for 2020

Izak Rankine (3)
Max King (4)
Ned McHenry (16)
Sam Sturt (17)
Riley Collier-Dawkins (20)
Ely Smith (21)
Xavier O'Hallaron (22)
Jez McLennan (23)

 

[pizza safety]

Danger, Dusty, Whitfield and Heeney are all currently classified as mid-fwd on Champion Data’s player ratings twitter page. These are nearly always accurate for positions the following year and mirror what they are classified as in the prospectus. The only exception I could find is Bailey Fritsch who was classified as a mid-fwd in the prospectus but only got MID in fantasy, which might have been very very close.

Dunkley, Boak and T Kelly all look set to lose DPP.

 

[BigRuss]

Danger, Dusty, Whitfield and Heeney are all currently classified as mid-fwd on Champion Data’s player ratings twitter page. These are nearly always accurate for positions the following year and mirror what they are classified as in the prospectus. The only exception I could find is Bailey Fritsch who was classified as a mid-fwd in the prospectus but only got MID in fantasy, which might have been very very close.

Dunkley, Boak and T Kelly all look set to lose DPP.

Well there’s our starting forward lines sorted. Theres probably a valid argument for leaving Danger out though id wager.

 

[Darkie]

Well there’s our starting forward lines sorted. Theres probably a valid argument for leaving Danger out though id wager.

Do you think he will come off with age, or that you can get him cheaper?

Very durable and still a good VC option.

I had Heeney and Dusty as likely locks, along with Danger, if M-F. Whitfield makes things interesting.

Menegola and D Smith look like worthy options to consider as well.

 

[pizza safety]

Well there’s our starting forward lines sorted. Theres probably a valid argument for leaving Danger out though id wager.

Definitely a tough call on Danger but I’ll probably still pick him over somebody like Whitfield just purely on durability.

 

[pizza safety]

Do you think he will come off with age, or that you can get him cheaper?

Very durable and still a good VC option.

I had Heeney and Dusty as likely locks, along with Danger, if M-F. Whitfield makes things interesting.

Menegola and D Smith look like worthy options to consider as well.

It looks like there will be a lot of underpriced players in the forward line next season and it will be difficult because you’ll still want to end up with Danger, Dusty, Whitfield etc

 

[Darkie]

So I’ve been through final averages (/likely pricing) and come up with the below as a rough starting side.

I’ve assumed 20% discounts for Docherty and Mitchell, and some positional changes.

Docherty, Lloyd, Laird

Mitchell, Macrae, Cripps, Oliver

Grundy, Gawn

Danger, Dusty, cheap option (maybe Heeney)

Leaves around 150k each for 18 rookies.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1165843721570537475

 

[Bermi]

2 years of 22 games @ 130 now.

No second ruck of any note to worry about. 2 years younger than Gawn, 4 younger than NicNat and 6 younger than Goldy.

Pretty hard to argue with.

Yep, pretty hard to argue with those stats, but what if Grundy is at another club next year, a concern?