Opinion Questions For Rowsus

dicksilverman · 14 Feb 2020

Hey Row, thanks for continuing to contribute - so much value in your posts, it’s my only must read before the season starts!
Could you please provide your thoughts on Petrevski-Seton? He fits a few bills for me; high draft pick, 4th year, plays lots of game’s, upward scoring trajectory, team on the rise, DPP. Pretty keen on him, looking for some contrary information.
thank you!

Rowsus · 15 Feb 2020

OnTopBar said:

Hasnoshoes said:

Kelly is not totally locked into my team, but here is a little of my thinking.
3rd season in the AFL, after starting as a mature age recruit. Fitness and drilling should have him ready to peak.
He's a goal kicking, contested ball player, that lead Clearances at Geelong, and had nearly 50% more Clearances than Selwood, who was 3rd best.
Kelly kicked 24 goals in 2019, and WC really need a genuine goal kicking Midfielder (Sheed 16, Yeo 11 were their best)
Kelly had a CPR (Contested Possession Rate) of 45.4%, WC's best Mid was Yeo 54%, then Shuey, Sheed and Redden all around 41%.
Kelly was ranked 13th in the League for Centre Clearances, Yeo was the only WC player ranked higher than him.
With NicNat hopefully back, WC should get a greater share of first use of the ball, of which Kelly could be one of the main benficiaries.
I don't believe changing Clubs makes anyone a better player, but Kelly should be in a better head-space, now he's back home.

Yeo's TOG was down in 2019 because he played more Mid time than 2018. Pure Mids generally run more, and therefore have a lower TOG than say a pure Def. In 2019 only Neale and Cripps scored at a Mid Prem level, and averaged more than 107 minutes of on ground time. I think Yeo has found his level, and outside of a spike season, we shouldn't expect anything higher than 107 from him in the past 2 seasons. One of the problems he faces, in a SC sense, is he can be a problem solver for Simpson, which at times leads to a lower SC score.

Worpel had a 6 game hot streak from Rounds 17 to 22 where he averaged 32 disposals and 123 SC, outside of that streak he averaged 24 & 87. With Mitchell coming back, I can't see him being a consistently high possession getter. Not high enough to push his average up above 107, anyway. If he still had his DPP he'd be very worthy of consideration, but without it, it seems there are safer picks that aren't that much more expensive than Worpel. I'm also worried that, aside from Mitchell being a ball-pig, Hawthorn's game plan isn't SC friendly for Mids. 2015 Hodge and Sam Mitchell averaged 108. 2014 Lewis averaged 109. Those are the only 3 Hawthorn Mids to average 105+ since 2013, excluding the ball-pig.

Rowsus · 15 Feb 2020

Toothless Tigers said:

While he averaged 101 last season, to maintain his price, he needs to average something like 107-108 over the first 3 Rounds, to maintain his price.

Rowsus · 15 Feb 2020

Bermi said:

G'day Bermi,
good to see you got through those horrific fires. I hope life is getting somewhere back to normal around your parts.
It's not something I have specific figures on, but one of my rules has always been, back history before you back potential. It's much better to back someone with the runs on the board, than to hope someone can improve to that same level. I will qualify it with 2 thoughts.
Firstly, just to my minds eye, the fallen Prems would out-perform the Midpricer on the up.
Secondly, it really can depend on what caused the missed games. A horrific broken leg, for example, can sometimes take 2 years to get over, and even then sometimes the player is never the same again.
Of the 4 players you mentioned, the one I'd be most likely to start is Steven. I will add a clause, that I'd really need to see a lot of positive things from him, during the Marsh games. Both he and Doch might be ticking time bombs, only time will tell.

Bermi · 15 Feb 2020

Rowsus said:

Yeah, back to normal after the surreal 6 weeks. Smoke free days, water tank full and the weeds growing again!
Thanks for the good reply. RE: .…..ticking time bombs....... there is the Fear Of Missing Out with these players. If they start off the season with high scoring, then you have missed the boat. If they perform poorly, then wasting trades. I like your rule though, ……..fallen Prems would out-perform the Midpricer on the up.

Tails · 15 Feb 2020

Rowsus said:

I like the "price" considerations aspect as I do look at this ..... any players priced around the 500 - 550k mark etc in DEF or FWD line can still be usually obtained at a reasonable price even after a couple of rounds .... so at the cost of a few trades you can tend to look before you buy ...

- 30 trades is a lot more than the 20 we originally had so am comfortable with this approach ....

My MID's and RUC's I'm looking to lock away and ignore price movements as that is where the bulk of points usually come from ... not always but the usual plan unless someone has a few absolute stinkers ...

freowho · 15 Feb 2020

Tails said:

I see this comment a lot but it is irrelevant to the game. You are trying to separate yourself from everyone else and you can do this on any line. The easiest line to separate yourself is in the rucks, followed by the backs and forwards and the mids is probably the most difficult because there are so many choices.

Tails · 15 Feb 2020

freowho said:

Interesting view .... we obviously have divergent views and that is good food for thought .....

- Not sure about the RUC's as the one year I tried something different to the norm was my worst ...
- MID's I agree ...
- DEF's / FWD's I might need to review .... have always finished by backline last ... mmm

freowho · 15 Feb 2020

Tails said:

There is an assumption by some that a mid averaging 110 is more important than a defender averaging 100 because they score more points. But it isn't a competition between your mids and your defenders. It is a competition between your mids and someone else's mids. It's harder to find a defender averaging 100 than it is to find a mid averaging 110. So your defender averaging 100 gives you more chance of scoring more points than other coaches.
For the sake of the argument if we just look at average for our regular players last year. Dunkley was 15 points better than the 6th best forward. Macrae was 9 points better than the 8th best mid. Even though Macrae outscored Dunkley, Dunkley was more important because those who didn't have him were further behind everyone else than those that didn't have Macrae.

Bomber18 · 15 Feb 2020

freowho said:

There is an assumption by some that a mid averaging 110 is more important than a defender averaging 100 because they score more points. But it isn't a competition between your mids and your defenders. It is a competition between your mids and someone else's mids. It's harder to find a defender averaging 100 than it is to find a mid averaging 110. So your defender averaging 100 gives you more chance of scoring more points than other coaches.
For the sake of the argument if we just look at average for our regular players last year. Dunkley was 15 points better than the 6th best forward. Macrae was 9 points better than the 8th best mid. Even though Macrae outscored Dunkley, Dunkley was more important because those who didn't have him were further behind everyone else than those that didn't have Macrae.

Very wise words!

Tails · 15 Feb 2020

freowho said:

Agree ... always looking to learn ....

My early moves last year were to jump on Boak, Caleb, Marshall, ROB etc early ... started Whitfield, Dunks and Worpel ... but missed Lycett by a stubborn choice and traded Dunks out and back in ...

Mid priced failures were Libba and Milera ..... from memory

So my summary was that there were some season long points to be gained early in the FWD line ... of which I grabbed most of them ...

My backiline was where I fell short ... persisted in holding an injured Milera (costly mistake)... and should have grabbed Houli, Hurn etc .....

So to me my trading let me down not necessarily my starting choices or strategy .... had a few spare trades left over which I didn't maximise at the time when an opportunity presented ...

Rowsus · 16 Feb 2020

Rowsus said:

Nobody biting on this one?

Ironhawk · 16 Feb 2020

Rowsus said:

I think that's a typo on the wiki you were looking at, I think the actor's real name is Pat McCaffrie.
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0564562/

Try this instead (where I assume the name has come from):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitman_(franchise)

Keep up the good work with this thread, I'm happy to just read along but if I come up with any good questions for you I'll be sure to post them.

Rowsus · 16 Feb 2020

jarrad_ said:

Sier $242,700
Rowell $207,300
Cockatoo $148,200
It's pretty much impossible to have a strong view of any of these type of players.
All of them could start Round 1, or none of them might. We have no idea on their JS.
The only thing I can say is, Sier with his 8/80 in 2018 would seem a really good starting proposition, if his role and JS look good during the Marsh. Rowell needs to look like a 70-ish type player to be worth his money, and I don't know what to make of Cocky.
Sorry I couldn't be more informative.

Rowsus · 16 Feb 2020

dicksilverman said:

Hey d1ck, good to have you back.
Looking at SPS's figures, it looks like he started on the wing, then progressively moved to the back flank. I'm judging this by his I50 numbers starting higher than R50 numbers, but that trend started to reverse about Round 17 on, and also in Round 11.
I'm a bit worried he only averaged 19 Disposals, in a back line that should have seen plenty of the ball. I'm also worried that both his DE and CPR (Contested Possession Rate) are a little down. You'll usually accept a lower than normal CPR, if the DE is a bit higher, but when they're both a down a little on what you hoped, it is concerning. His DE was 70%, and his CPR was 42%. Neither of them terrible, but both sort of in no man's land. Particularly his DE. His TOG was around 79%, which he can probably bump a little, if he plays HBF. He did make some progression last season (20/68, 22/67, 22/82), but he seems awkwardly priced now ($443,300). With Docherty coming back, it's hard to be confident that SPS can bump his numbers enough, to push into that 90+ area that you'd want/need. Certainly being a 4th year player, with 64 games under his belt, I can understand some Coaches hoping he progresses from here. I think he might be more trap, than a happy pick. Sorry.

Rowsus · 16 Feb 2020

Ironhawk said:

Spot on.
I believe there was a keyboard error, in entering his name in the credits, when he appeared as Agent 47 in "Get Smart" (just one episode). As you point out, his true name is "McCaffrie", but he appeared in the credits as "McCaffrig" in that one Get Smart episode.
I also believe you are probably right about it being more likely to be a Hitman reference.

Bermi · 16 Feb 2020

Rowsus said:

This sounds like a good question for 'Who wants to be a Millionaire'

GrainFedBeef · 16 Feb 2020

Ironhawk said:

Rowsus said:

Not sure of an error Rowsus. Agent 47 name in the show was Pat McCaffrig, played by McCaffrie. Grew up on that show, highly entertaining.

Juzzo · 16 Feb 2020

GrainFedBeef said:

Was he the one who would pop up in tight spaces, eg letter boxes?

GrainFedBeef · 16 Feb 2020

Juzzo said:

Agent 13 I believe.

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

dicksilverman

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Bermi

Tails

freowho

Tails

freowho

Bomber18

Leadership Group

Tails

Rowsus

Statistician

Ironhawk

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Bermi

GrainFedBeef

Juzzo

GrainFedBeef