Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

The rucks have got me again. I have had Grundy, ROB locked in my team for weeks now but am starting to have doubts on ROB. What are your thoughts on him?
I do not want to go up to Gawn (will require a structure change) so if I was to take him out by going down in price should I go all the way down to a Naismith or Z Smith or is there anyone around the same price you would consider?

Hi Mudflap,
the only one I'd consider is Naismith.
Z Smith is a completely unknown scenario, once Witts is back, and my feeling is, he doesn't last, as 2 metre Peter is probably a better Fwd than Z Smith.
O'Brien ($517,400) needs to average 104 to maintain his price. He certainly has the Draw to manage that though. Rnds 9, 15 & 17 he has Gawn, NicNat and Grundy. Rnd 7 he has Witts, who can be tricky, and Rnd 6 he faces the Marshall/Ryder tag team, so it's a pretty friendly early Draw!
ROB only bettered that required 104 5 times in 18 games last season, but those 5 games averaged 136!
I will say those 5 games were against weak opponents though. Lobb, Chol/Balta, Stanley/Blicavs, McKernan, Phillips/Casboult. That's a pretty weak list of Rucks!
I can see ROB starting the season well. His Draw of Syd, Port, Bris, Rich, Ess is about as friendly as it gets for a Ruck this season. I don't expect it will be as weak as those 5 games listed above though.
I think ROB will end up a placeholder selection. A pick that roughly holds value, while you wait for your intended target player to get close enough in price, to make the swap easy. I think that's a job he can do, but I'm not a big fan of placeholders. I think starting teams, apart from FD's/FDTP's should score at a genuine Keeper level, or make cash. Placeholders by definition, don't fit that description.

 

[Rowsus]

What’s a reliable amount of rookies to start with.

I wouldn't want to start with less than 14, or more than 17.

is it ok for doc d1 robbo d2 and noble d3 as this gets me 6 mids and first few upgrades in defence then or time it well.

Of course it's alright. The only rider being, you have filled 6 of your 8 Mid spots, so you better get them right, as you only get 2 more to fill. Chances are there will be 2 or 3 surprises etc, and you've only got 2 spots to fill. You might get forced into sidewaying one of them.
5 is probably preferable, but if you are confident in your 6, have at it!

 

[Rowsus]

Your thoughts on starting 4 premium mids versus 5. I’ve had 5 for most of preseason, but am currently playing with four and spending the cash in my defence and forward lines.

My preference is 5, then 4, then 6.
The bottom line is, as long as you have spent the money well, any structure can work. It's just some structures require more creative trading than some other structures.
Personally, I'm having trouble finding Def or Fwd Prems I am solidly confident in being good season long picks!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan, hope you are well. Kill it this year, fast or slow. Keith

Hi Keith, what I would kill for, is your consistency and patience. I'm too impetuous.
Good luck for the season ahead.
Skål. Rowan.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus, how would you rank the following forward rookies: Davis, Crocker, King, Rankine, Budarick?

Hi Yikes.
I would rank them as hard to sort out, like most of the Rookies.
With zero confidence, and trying to guesstimate JS and scoring, and taking price and DPP into account, I'll say:
Rankine, King, Budarick, Davis, Crocker.
Good luck sorting them out!

 

[Buddy Starmart]

I wouldn't want to start with less than 14, or more than 17.



Of course it's alright. The only rider being, you have filled 6 of your 8 Mid spots, so you better get them right, as you only get 2 more to fill. Chances are there will be 2 or 3 surprises etc, and you've only got 2 spots to fill. You might get forced into sidewaying one of them.
5 is probably preferable, but if you are confident in your 6, have at it!

If I only had 4 filled which ones off the over 600k better off in the start than a upgrade and is 2 other than doc like better than just doc like Lloyd and laird for example.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row, I hope you are well and that your team is taking shape in a way you’re happy with.

My question is: in terms of expected points over the season, what do you see as the impact of the change to Houston’s bye?

I know Darkie always asks good questions but I'm a bit confused reading this. Don't Port play 22 games like everyone else?

Or is it more directed at the fact that you MUST take a rookie score for Houston in R11 (I'm assuimg nobody has 7 def premos by then) vs the fact that players with a later bye could be covered by a premium on another line?

You’re on the right track with your second para. Arguably the key difference is that his bye is not a best 18 week, unlike most other players.

There’s a long discussion in the Defenders thread about how the change to Houston’s bye may make him no longer viable as a starting pick (especially if you have Roberton).

Personally I have both, and see it as a minor rather than a major change ... but given Rowsus always gives good answers, I thought I’d check his view!

Hi Darkie,
I'm not completely happy with my team. I keep looking at it, and getting an uncomfortable feeling, but I can't quite put my finger on why!

I don't think choosing Houston necessarily will cost you points, but it does open a complication, when paired with Roberton.
The possibilty exists, that Roberton rises to the level of either Keeper, or scoring well enough to be a last upgrade option. The probability is, that by then, you might have a deadwood Rookie sitting at D8. This leads you to 3 options. Trade out Roberton early. Plan ahead, and have a D/M or D/F you can get up to your Def line. Cop the donut. None of them are completely desirable, nor at the same time, undesirable. There's the added plus, that Roberton has performed to the upper limit of your expectations, so you are probably prepared to cop the inconvenience.
At that stage of the season, we are still using Rookies to cover gaps. Assuming starting Houston does lead to a loss of points at his bye, we can only assume it has cost you around 60 points. If you take into account the probability of it leading to point costing problems (and not just future decision making problems), then you get a picture of the real cost, in terms of points, as we stand right now. I'll say it is about a 15% chance of causing you point problems (and about a 40-50% chance of creating future decision problems), so 15% x 60 points = 9 points.
Taking Houston to start with looks like costing you something in the order of 9 points, as we stand right now.

 

[Rowsus]

If I only had 4 filled which ones off the over 600k better off in the start than a upgrade and is 2 other than doc like better than just doc like Lloyd and laird for example.

Basically, what you have to do is, back your confidence. Your starting team will have somewhere between 10 and 14 solid Keepers. Opinion on who or what a solid Keeper is varies from person to person. If you have more confidence in picking an M5 and a M6, than a D2 or D3, then back your confidence.
People underestimate how hard it is to get this right. In real terms, around 40% of what the general SC populace call Prems/Keepers, actually turn out to be regrettable starting picks. This can be due to injury, underperforming, lost opportunity or whatever. But the bottom line is, most Coaches will look back on their starting Keepers, and say they might have been better off not starting 4 or 5 of them. Just go with your confidence, as that is better than guessing!

 

[Slammer]

Hi Rows,

Finding it tough this year and it hasn’t even started.
Last year I battled with Rucks as I punted on the lesser likes so it was a battle to get the premiums such as Grundy etc. as the season progressed.
Not keen on making the same mistake however a lot of value is tied up so may punt on the one lesser proven performer.
I am thinking Grundy is almost a must have for me this year. Are we playing to much for him? Do you think he will continue? Currently have him in my side along with English.
The other question I had was Houston. People climbing all over him due to his position change. Although at an awkward price do you see him as a lock? Not a proven pick.
cheers

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Rowsus

Hope all is safe and well in your part of the world , I normally wait until about Round 6-8 for advice when my season has completely derailed ? but not this year , with the seemingly availability of rookies (albeit higher priced) I am now feeling confident about my starting team (depending on Round 1 team sheets).

Having read the pros and cons of starting the likes of Doedee & Roberton my question related to how many of these players in that $ 250 - $ 300 k are successful starting picks ?

I guess it needs to be looked at in a individual basis to determine circumstances behind that starting price etc.

From rough calculations Doedee & Roberton would need to average around 87-89 ish to make that acceptable $ 150 k to be used as a successful stepping stone so depending on how else we set our team up would a $ 100k profit be acceptable ?

Others in that price range I am curious on are :-

Birchall - 8 games in the last 3 years probably tells the story to stay well away

Long - classified as a F , but playing HB role

Lukosious

Fort - the Chris Scott issue

Rayner - god forbid , Fagan has said he will get more mid time , not sure how with their midfield

Naismith - been flogged to death in the Ruck discussion.

I guess different lines and different circumstances , so would all need to Ave 85-92 ish to be a viable stepping stone.

Do you see anything in any of them that could make them a viable starting pick and becoming a hidden gem ?

I would be particularly interested in your thoughts on Lukosious ?

Or should I be focusing on pure GnR's with the likes of Docherty , Lynch , Steven & Smith.

Hope that makes sense and thank you for your time.

Good luck for your season

 

[dyii]

Hi Rowsus,

Is there anything obvious lost by starting an expensive F1/2 in the mids (e.g. Whitfield, Dusty), if there's an intention to move them back later? Seems like there's slightly more value in the forward line this year.

Cheers!

 

[Leroy]

Off the top of my head, there are only 3 scenarios you'd try this.
1) You are absolutely trade rich, and can afford the trades to make this "fiddle play".
2) You are trade and cash poor, and need the $$$ generated to help you get close(r) to a complete team.
3) You are thinking there is a fair chance, the Ruck traded in will perform to such a level, you don't need to trade whichever of Gawndy you traded out, back in again.

I'd be looking at it for option 2 (GG -> Marshall/Lycett slingshot) in a year where it might be tight for dollars.

Suppose you did this in R13 last season: Gawn facing the bye ($706k) to Lycett ($410k), trading them back at the start of R18 (Gawn - $645k, Lycett - $615k). In that time Gawn scored 341 points and Lycett scored 651.

Net profit of $266k and 310 points for 2 trades.

Now people might say - sure, Gawn got injured and Lycett wents nuts against teams with weak rucks but if you were ranked 50k and after a hail mary, there could be worse moves!

 

[Darkie]

Hi Darkie,
I'm not completely happy with my team. I keep looking at it, and getting an uncomfortable feeling, but I can't quite put my finger on why!

I don't think choosing Houston necessarily will cost you points, but it does open a complication, when paired with Roberton.
The possibilty exists, that Roberton rises to the level of either Keeper, or scoring well enough to be a last upgrade option. The probability is, that by then, you might have a deadwood Rookie sitting at D8. This leads you to 3 options. Trade out Roberton early. Plan ahead, and have a D/M or D/F you can get up to your Def line. Cop the donut. None of them are completely desirable, nor at the same time, undesirable. There's the added plus, that Roberton has performed to the upper limit of your expectations, so you are probably prepared to cop the inconvenience.
At that stage of the season, we are still using Rookies to cover gaps. Assuming starting Houston does lead to a loss of points at his bye, we can only assume it has cost you around 60 points. If you take into account the probability of it leading to point costing problems (and not just future decision making problems), then you get a picture of the real cost, in terms of points, as we stand right now. I'll say it is about a 15% chance of causing you point problems (and about a 40-50% chance of creating future decision problems), so 15% x 60 points = 9 points.
Taking Houston to start with looks like costing you something in the order of 9 points, as we stand right now.

Thanks Row, that's very helpful.

I suppose if we took the cost of decision making problems as being in the order of an additional trade (which I value at 150 points on average), the all in cost is 9 + 45% x 150 = 77 points.

I think I'd start Houston even with a 77 point handicap, so that clears things up for me. Appreciate your input!

On your team, having seen it, I think it's shaping up nicely. The main things that stand out would be your balance across the mids and ruck lines, but if you're making a conscious decision on that I think that's perfectly valid. Good luck!

 

[Rowsus]

If I only had 4 filled which ones off the over 600k better off in the start than a upgrade and is 2 other than doc like better than just doc like Lloyd and laird for example.

Sorry. I'm not sure I'm following this.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rows,

Finding it tough this year and it hasn’t even started.
Last year I battled with Rucks as I punted on the lesser likes so it was a battle to get the premiums such as Grundy etc. as the season progressed.
Not keen on making the same mistake however a lot of value is tied up so may punt on the one lesser proven performer.
I am thinking Grundy is almost a must have for me this year. Are we playing to much for him? Do you think he will continue? Currently have him in my side along with English.
The other question I had was Houston. People climbing all over him due to his position change. Although at an awkward price do you see him as a lock? Not a proven pick.
cheers

Hi Slams,
Grundy was my first picked player this year. His draw has him set up to potentially go big in the early Rounds, and with Collingwood playing a lot of games early in the week, he becomes the perfect VC option.
Well, I guess I can't see Houston as a lock, as he's not currently in my team!
I think he'll probably end up being a useful pick, but I also think he won't get out of reach, and should be available around his current price, whenever I decide I need him.
Good luck this season!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Hope all is safe and well in your part of the world , I normally wait until about Round 6-8 for advice when my season has completely derailed ? but not this year , with the seemingly availability of rookies (albeit higher priced) I am now feeling confident about my starting team (depending on Round 1 team sheets).

Having read the pros and cons of starting the likes of Doedee & Roberton my question related to how many of these players in that $ 250 - $ 300 k are successful starting picks ?

I guess it needs to be looked at in a individual basis to determine circumstances behind that starting price etc.

From rough calculations Doedee & Roberton would need to average around 87-89 ish to make that acceptable $ 150 k to be used as a successful stepping stone so depending on how else we set our team up would a $ 100k profit be acceptable ?

Others in that price range I am curious on are :-

Birchall - 8 games in the last 3 years probably tells the story to stay well away

Long - classified as a F , but playing HB role

Lukosious

Fort - the Chris Scott issue

Rayner - god forbid , ***an has said he will get more mid time , not sure how with their midfield

Naismith - been flogged to death in the Ruck discussion.

I guess different lines and different circumstances , so would all need to Ave 85-92 ish to be a viable stepping stone.

Do you see anything in any of them that could make them a viable starting pick and becoming a hidden gem ?

I would be particularly interested in your thoughts on Lukosious ?

Or should I be focusing on pure GnR's with the likes of Docherty , Lynch , Steven & Smith.

Hope that makes sense and thank you for your time.

Good luck for your season

Hi Herbie,
things in little old Denmark are ok. We haven't been too hard hit by C19 yet, but it's coming. We're not at the hoarding stage yet, and the local supermarket has plenty of toiletpaper, rice and pasta ........ for now!

History certainly says the $250-$300k price area is a graveyard! Last year there were 96 players in that range, with only one of them proving to be a useful starting pick. Darcy Macpherson opened $293,100 and reached $468,500 (+$175,400) at his bye, and averaged 83, playing every game along the way. What you intimated is absolutely correct. We shouldn't lump the all into one basket, and you need to look at them individually. What caused them to be priced that way? Are they inexperienced, and on the way up? Are they a player with a decent history, that can possibly rebound? Or are they just deadwood, that have fooled us into thinking that they have some sort of upside?
One of the great things about this game is, everyone can have their own opinion, and that opinion is valid, no matter how much it differs to others. You mention +$150k as a number to be a successful Stepping Stone. I tend to think +$100k is ok, and if they filled their other SS criteria (score useful points, play pretty much every game, and keep your dodgy 5th or 6th Rookie offthe ground), then I'll call +$100k a win, and +$80k a little disappointing, but you didn't really lose too much on the deal.

Birchall ($292,700 Def) - way too much bad history. Never considered him.
Long ($283,100 Fwd) - Marsh scores 64 & 85. Looked to have a good role in the pre-season, but needs to average close to 80 to be a good pick, and he didn't manage that with good game time in the lower pressure Marsh series. Will probably make money, but I'm thinking not enough.
Lukosius ($274,600 Def/Fwd) - Marsh 70 (from 56% TOG) & 58 (from 76% TOG). Might possibly be a good link with Brander (or Hill, if he ever gets match fit). 195 cm Pick #2 in the Draft, coming into his 2nd season, so it reads like a player with upside. Gold Coast are likely to improve, at least just a little, this season, which also helps. Only cracked 16 or more Disposals 4 times in his 21 games last season, and went SC 70+ only 4 times, with a high of 88. Seemed to play a slightly different role in the Marsh, and I think time will prove he is a better player than what he has shown so far, but I would like to have seen more upside to hang my hat on, before I picked him this season.
Fort ($264,800 Fwd) - Marsh 70 & 61 from low TOG's. Even if selected Round 1, I'd be too worried about his JS to even consider him. The low TOG's might point to poor JS, and I think Ratugolea might hold him out of the team.
Rayner ($251,800 Fwd) - 60 & 61 in the Marsh. I'm not seeing anything luring me into this seemingly obvious trap.
Naismith ($251,500 Ruck) - 79 & 69 in the Marsh. I really want Naismith in my side. I think he's a safe +$100k, and there's not many of them this season. I'm facing an unusual problem though, which has been mentioned in the Ruck thread. I'm having trouble spending the dollars, when I put Naismith at R2 (no faith in the Fwd/Def Prems), and if you sit Naismith at R3, it makes for an expensive bench, with good points you can't access. To be honest, I still don't know if he's R2, R3 or out!
Good luck sorting it out, and good luck for the season.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Is there anything obvious lost by starting an expensive F1/2 in the mids (e.g. Whitfield, Dusty), if there's an intention to move them back later? Seems like there's slightly more value in the forward line this year.

Cheers!

Hi dyii,
starting an expensive M/F in the Mids is perfectly acceptable. Basically what it means is, you have one extra Fwd Rookie, than you a Mid rookie, as you have one extra space in your Fwd line. If you think you are happier with that last Rookie being a Fwd, rather than a Mid, then putting Whit/Dusty in the Midfield is exactly what you should do!

 

[Rowsus]

I'd be looking at it for option 2 (GG -> Marshall/Lycett slingshot) in a year where it might be tight for dollars.

Suppose you did this in R13 last season: Gawn facing the bye ($706k) to Lycett ($410k), trading them back at the start of R18 (Gawn - $645k, Lycett - $615k). In that time Gawn scored 341 points and Lycett scored 651.

Net profit of $266k and 310 points for 2 trades.

Now people might say - sure, Gawn got injured and Lycett wents nuts against teams with weak rucks but if you were ranked 50k and after a hail mary, there could be worse moves!

The other potential upside to it is, that Rucking is one of the most wearing postions to play in an AFL season. What tends to happen is, that 4 to 6 Rucks get to the last 6 or 8 games, and they are fitter/carrying less niggles, than their opposition, or are playing 2nd rate opposition, because the number 1 Ruck is injured. The net result is, that these fit Rucks can post some big scores! As proof of this assertion, the top 6 averaging Rucks in 2019 averaged as a group 109 until the end of the byes, and 121 after the byes! The trick is to identify the fit Rucks, that have a LOT of games against the injured or 2nd string Rucks.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Row, that's very helpful.

I suppose if we took the cost of decision making problems as being in the order of an additional trade (which I value at 150 points on average), the all in cost is 9 + 45% x 150 = 77 points.

I think I'd start Houston even with a 77 point handicap, so that clears things up for me. Appreciate your input!

On your team, having seen it, I think it's shaping up nicely. Th main things that stand out would be your balance across the mids and ruck lines, but if you're making a conscious decision on that I think that's perfectly valid. Good luck!

It's that Mid and Ruck unbalance that is giving me pause, I think. Naismith is both an answer to some problems, and the creator of more problems!

 

[Buddy Starmart]

Sorry. I'm not sure I'm following this.

I mean which 4 mids are best to start than upgrading to.Is it best starting 2 other defenders like Lloyd and laird for example than just doc.