Lyons 1st 2 games are against HAW and NTH, his last 2 scores against them were 108 and 165, hmmm. If he scores them again, many may be jumping on him Rd3, ay. But Rd3 is usually when I adjust 2 Rookie players, so maybe the opportunity won't be available to get Lyons in.
Seriously though, who knows what will happen, Lyons may start the first half scoring low like last season? I'm not sure how A Brayshaw will start either, so yeah he's a risk as well.
I don't see Cash Cow Naismith as a risk, maybe you mean as a R2 and not starting Gawn? Still I don't see that as a big risk, as Gawn's replacement will be a Gun player.
I suppose there is some risk in starting Ceglar (maybe the McEvoy down back experiment won't work), but I think he will be a safe F6 player, who will be a Ruck Emergency.
I'm looking at Gaff as well, or Z Merrett, or Oliver, or Coniglio, or Lyons, hmmm.