Hi Rowsus
Posted this in the trades thread.
This week I am wrestling with Short to Stewart. Puts 30K in the bank and I think that Stewart could average 95 for the rest of the year and with Houli due back Short may drop a few points and average 90. Is 30K and 5 points per week (40 points for the year) worth a trade?
Do you agree on the averages of 95 for Stewart and 90 for Short.
Thanks in advance
Also glad I could bump the thread back to page 1 where it belongs
Hi Mudflap,
first let me say congratulations on your amazing season so far. I hope it can continue. Great Ranking (86) and your team is really well set up at the moment, too! 18-19 Keepers, with 3 missing this Bye, and 4 missing the next, plus having Goldy over Gawn potentially sets you up better than most of the teams above you! By Goldy over Gawn, I'm assuming Gawn either misses, or is compromised in the next 2 Rounds.
I think you need to be aggressive in your trading, and really push home your advantage.
On to your proposed scenario Short to Stewart.
We only have a small sample size of comparing Short with and without Houli this season. 9 games played, and Houli has played 4. The other thing to factor into the "does Houli affect Short?" conversation is the MCG! Houli is probably the most ground affected player in the competition in the past 1.5 seasons!
2020 Houli @ MCG 3/103
2020 Houli @ Other 1/68
2019 Houli @ MCG 12/116
2019 Houli @ Other 7/86
Combined @ MCG 15/114, Other 8/84
While Richmond are unlikely to get back to the MCG this season, it's important to factor that in when comparing anything with/without Houli.
Let's look at Short the past 1.5 Seasons. We'll exclude Short's injury affected Rnd 3 score in 2019. Without that injury score, Short is 20/87 the past 1.5 seasons.
Richmond @ MCG win, Houli plays: 9/79
Richmond @ MCG loses, Houli plays: 3/94
Richmond @ MCG win, Houli misses: 1/75
Richmond @ MCG loses, Houli misses: 1/78
Richmond @ Other win, Houli plays: 2/78
Richmond @ Other loses, Houli plays: 1/82
Richmond @ Other win, Houli misses: 3/96
Richmond @ Other loses, Houli misses: 1/110
Wins 15/83, Losses 5/95. With Houli 14/82, Without Houli 6/94.
Wins with Houli 11/79, Wins without Houli 4/93, Losses with Houli 3/95, Losses without Houli 2/94
From this limited data, Short is fairly consistent in losses, but scores better in wins when Houli doesn't play.
I think Short will play in more wins with Houli from here, than games without Houli. I'd be inclined to put Short at around 85 from here, and with interceptors scoring so well this season, I'd put Stewart 100.
If my figures are close, it's worth the trade. If your figues are close, it probably doesn't return you enough to be worthwhile.
Good luck, I hope you make some great trades in this important period, and continue your climb up the Rankings!