Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,
I would appreciate your thoughts on Houston, as I think he is on the rise, but I haven't got a crystal football to confirm that :).
I think he is a safe selection, but there are many doubters out there, which is making me to be doubtful selecting him.

I'm not a stats person, but looking at the stats below, I see a pattern. Houston scored poorly when PTA won easily in Rds 1, 2, 3 & 4. and he scored well when PTA had close games and lost game, regadless if Houston played Mid or Def.
PTA next games are; STK, MEL, RIC and GEE, they don't look like easy games to me.

View attachment 19093
For the first time I was able to have a look at Houston and I was pleased he played a mid role all game, but he is not a contested player, as @GrainFedBeef pointed out, so I'm not surprised he only scored 67.

I ended up trading Houston in, I needed to get McAsey out of my starting 22, who is averaging 39 and my other choice would have been Eggmoleese-Smith who scored 30. With the extra trades now, I went for it and my team has an extra 37 points this weekend. Houston will be an upgrade later.
Hi Bermie,
I must apologise, I don't know how I missed this question, but I didn't see it until too late on Sunday.
Houston's a hard one to pin down. Some weeks he seems to be playing a mostly negative/negating role at the Cenre Bounces, and some weeks he's there to win the football. In this Round just gone he had more CBA's than any other Port Mid, but no Centre Clearances. His 4 Clearances were from stoppages around the ground.
I think we just have to accept that his scoring will be role dependent, and whe he's negative he'll be 65-70, and when he's at the ball, he'll be 95-110. We just have to hope he gets enough scores around 100, to counter those 65's!
 

Rowsus

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Is this a wild & crazy idea?
Trade Simpkin out....

Current BE is 201 and he's expected to lose approx $60k in the next 2 games.
Last weekend against Curnow he showed that he doesn't handle a tag well, and although they are only playing Adelaide next, Keays does a pretty good tagging job so it could see him struggle again.
Could turn him into a BSmith and pocket some change.
I think he was possibly still "affected" from the week before. We've seen a few players in recent times have a bad week after struggling through the previous week with an injury. Either way, I wouldn't expect Keays to do the same job as Curnow, as Curnow has taken some pretty decent scalps over the years.
I think you have to look at what you reasonably expect Simpkin to average from here. If it is scoring at a an acceptable Fwd Keeper level, there's not much point in trading him out, even with the expected Cash loss. Cash loss on Keepers is fairly irrelevant. If you think he might start to drop in scoring, for one reason or another, then have at it, and get him out now. With compressed fixture he might possibly struggle to get through, or get rested, on the other hand, he might be 100% again! I for one, will be holding him.
 

Rowsus

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Briefly going to change the name of this thread to “Tough Questions for Rowsus”. I see in the review thread that you fell for the Egg hype. Seems like a very unRowsus thing to do. Please explain.
LOL, fair enough, I have to cop that one. It was fairly unusual for me to jump that way, and I think it was a combination of things that caused me to muck that one up.
No excuse, but one of them was having jumped the wrong way 3 or 4 weeks in a row on trades, I started to second and third guess myself. I was a bit pushed for time, and I remember thinking "Houli won't be back in the short term, he looks like he's playing a Houli type role. If he can average 75-ish, he's good to sit at D5/6 while I upgrade my Mids."
Unfortunately, it looks like he's more 60-65, than 75-80, so I mucked that up. Funnily enough, I was SO close to taking Close a week early. I thought everyone would be taking him this week, so i'd get in a week early, and have an extra trade to play with, My other option was Oliver, as I thought he was a chance to go big against Bris, who are giving up some big Mid scores.
I had 3 to choose from, 2 of those 3 were pretty good as it turns out, and I did it again, I picked the dud option.
No excuses, if I had thought it through more thoroughly, Eggman was probably the least likely of the 3 to be a happy pick!
 
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LOL, fair enough, I have to cop that one. It was fairly unusual for me to jump that way, and I think it was a combination of things that caused me to muck that one up.
No excuse, but one of them was having jumped the wrong way 3 or 4 weeks in a row on trades, I started to second and third guess myself. I was a bit pushed for time, and I remember thinking "Houli won't be back in the short term, he looks like he's playing a Houli type role. If he can average 75-ish, he's good to sit at D5/6 while I upgrade my Mids."
Unfortunately, it looks like he's more 60-65, than 75-80, so I mucked that up. Funnily enough, I was SO close to taking Close a week early. I thought everyone would be taking him this week, so i'd get in a week early, and have an extra trade to play with, My other option was Oliver, as I thought he was a chance to go big against Bris, who are giving up some big Mid scores.
I had 3 to choose from, 2 of those 3 were pretty good as it turns out, and I did it again, I picked the dud option.
No excuses, if I had thought it through more thoroughly, Eggman was probably the least likely of the 3 to be a happy pick!
Confession time. I only asked the question because I was seriously tempted myself however one of the reasons I didn't is that I had the little Rowsus man on my shoulder saying "Don't fall for the one week hype" and "Don't chase last week's points".

I was very surprised to see you traded him in.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well, as a fellow Rozee owner (it hurts) I was wondering on your thoughts on moving him on.

He’s been nothing short of horrific to own over the past 3-4 weeks but get a feeling that he could somehow put in some decent scores from here on. My plan would be to move him to F7 but undecided.


Cheers, Pieman
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well, as a fellow Rozee owner (it hurts) I was wondering on your thoughts on moving him on.

He’s been nothing short of horrific to own over the past 3-4 weeks but get a feeling that he could somehow put in some decent scores from here on. My plan would be to move him to F7 but undecided.


Cheers, Pieman
Hi Pieman.
6 weeks average of 44, fallen to $300k, and BE that could see him drop another $25k this Round.
He's leaving my team, tonight!!!!
 
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Hi Rowsus

Posted this in the trades thread.

This week I am wrestling with Short to Stewart. Puts 30K in the bank and I think that Stewart could average 95 for the rest of the year and with Houli due back Short may drop a few points and average 90. Is 30K and 5 points per week (40 points for the year) worth a trade?

Do you agree on the averages of 95 for Stewart and 90 for Short.

Thanks in advance

Also glad I could bump the thread back to page 1 where it belongs :)
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus

Posted this in the trades thread.

This week I am wrestling with Short to Stewart. Puts 30K in the bank and I think that Stewart could average 95 for the rest of the year and with Houli due back Short may drop a few points and average 90. Is 30K and 5 points per week (40 points for the year) worth a trade?

Do you agree on the averages of 95 for Stewart and 90 for Short.

Thanks in advance

Also glad I could bump the thread back to page 1 where it belongs :)
Hi Mudflap,
first let me say congratulations on your amazing season so far. I hope it can continue. Great Ranking (86) and your team is really well set up at the moment, too! 18-19 Keepers, with 3 missing this Bye, and 4 missing the next, plus having Goldy over Gawn potentially sets you up better than most of the teams above you! By Goldy over Gawn, I'm assuming Gawn either misses, or is compromised in the next 2 Rounds.
I think you need to be aggressive in your trading, and really push home your advantage.
On to your proposed scenario Short to Stewart.
We only have a small sample size of comparing Short with and without Houli this season. 9 games played, and Houli has played 4. The other thing to factor into the "does Houli affect Short?" conversation is the MCG! Houli is probably the most ground affected player in the competition in the past 1.5 seasons!
2020 Houli @ MCG 3/103
2020 Houli @ Other 1/68
2019 Houli @ MCG 12/116
2019 Houli @ Other 7/86
Combined @ MCG 15/114, Other 8/84
While Richmond are unlikely to get back to the MCG this season, it's important to factor that in when comparing anything with/without Houli.
Let's look at Short the past 1.5 Seasons. We'll exclude Short's injury affected Rnd 3 score in 2019. Without that injury score, Short is 20/87 the past 1.5 seasons.
Richmond @ MCG win, Houli plays: 9/79
Richmond @ MCG loses, Houli plays: 3/94
Richmond @ MCG win, Houli misses: 1/75
Richmond @ MCG loses, Houli misses: 1/78
Richmond @ Other win, Houli plays: 2/78
Richmond @ Other loses, Houli plays: 1/82
Richmond @ Other win, Houli misses: 3/96
Richmond @ Other loses, Houli misses: 1/110
Wins 15/83, Losses 5/95. With Houli 14/82, Without Houli 6/94.
Wins with Houli 11/79, Wins without Houli 4/93, Losses with Houli 3/95, Losses without Houli 2/94
From this limited data, Short is fairly consistent in losses, but scores better in wins when Houli doesn't play.
I think Short will play in more wins with Houli from here, than games without Houli. I'd be inclined to put Short at around 85 from here, and with interceptors scoring so well this season, I'd put Stewart 100.
If my figures are close, it's worth the trade. If your figues are close, it probably doesn't return you enough to be worthwhile.
Good luck, I hope you make some great trades in this important period, and continue your climb up the Rankings!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

A short but sweet question for you here.

For those of us with Conroy at R3, who is non-playing, non-DPP, is a Conroy to Draper trade worth it in your eye?

Thanks,
Goodie
Hi GG,
I would only be pulling a trade like that, if you have too many deadwood Rookies, and are worried you won't generate enough cash, to reach the side you want. Outside of that, you are not getting enough return on your trade. Also, it might factor in, if you think you are short of numbers one Bye Round, or you are Gawn dependent, and he misses this week, with the potential of missing next game as well, but apart from that, I wouldn't do it.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rows

Who would you offload out of Rankine vs Buderick to assist in facilitating a Stewart trade?

Rankine has more upside but Buderick seems to have good JS with dpp.
Hey Slam,
I'm thinking they both have good JS, but you are right, Rankine has the better potential to pump out another money spiking game. Budaricks DPP can also be useful! You really could go either way, but I'd say unless you have satisfactorily fixed your earlier Cash generation problem, you need to trade Budarick instead of Rankine. If you think you have Cash gen. under control, then maybe chop Rankine.
Good luck!
 
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Hey Slam,
I'm thinking they both have good JS, but you are right, Rankine has the better potential to pump out another money spiking game. Budaricks DPP can also be useful! You really could go either way, but I'd say unless you have satisfactorily fixed your earlier Cash generation problem, you need to trade Budarick instead of Rankine. If you think you have Cash gen. under control, then maybe chop Rankine.
Good luck!
Thanks Rows
Fortunately I have recovered fairly well from my previous dire rookie situation.
Pickett returned, Close finally got a game and my recent inclusions such as McPherson, Simpson, Georgiades have been ok.
Only negative was bringing in Frederick for Sturt but that was purely as a quick cash grab so I could get in Stewart this week.
Thankfully I didn’t follow the masses and bring in Skinner, I ended up paying a little more and took a punt on Bell. Hope it pays off.
As a result I moved Rankine on thinking the dpp of Budders will come in handy.

cheers
 
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Hey old friend,
With 11 trades have 2 spots left to fill before i need to worry about replacing D.Smith & J.Steven.
Was after your thoughts on whether i need to be getting Lloyd & Gawn ?
also for mid spots who would you go after Fyfe, Merrett, Oliver, Macrae , Bont, Titch, Treloar , Steele ?

Cheers for any wisdom you may give me (y)

scteam.png
*the 2 blank spots are rivers & bedford
 
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Hey old friend,
With 11 trades have 2 spots left to fill before i need to worry about replacing D.Smith & J.Steven.
Was after your thoughts on whether i need to be getting Lloyd & Gawn ?
also for mid spots who would you go after Fyfe, Merrett, Oliver, Macrae , Bont, Titch, Treloar , Steele ?

Cheers for any wisdom you may give me (y)

View attachment 19498
*the 2 blank spots are rivers & bedford
Hey old buddy,
I don't think I'd be grabbing Gawn in the short term. A big BE, and a cloud over his head, I'd be waiting and seeing how that plays out. I know taking Duncan will make you Geelong heavy, but with extra trades, you can trade around that problem, if/when it occurs. At his price, and how he is scoring, I'd be getting Duncan in. Macrae and Steele would be my 2 picks from your mid list. Fyfe will likely miss games, the others are a bit up and down. Treloar probably my 3rd pick. I think Lloyd is a luxury upgrade you make later, given you have a pretty solid Def 6. One of them might get injured in the meantime, making that choice easy.
Good luck.
 
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Happy FriYAY Rows! :)
Trust you're keeping well!

Wanted to get your thoughts on a few midfield upgrade targets I (and maybe a few others too!) am considering getting before the start of next round!

Cripps vs. Gaff vs. Shuey vs. Boak

Who would be the best out of the above to finish the season in a strong way?
Cripps looks too tempting at that price but in recent times he's had a few too many down games judging by his usual standards. The other 3 I'm not really sure on but again their price might make it worthwhile.

Thanks in advance!
 
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