Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Manikato1]

Makes me wonder then why people are keen on starting Preuss @ $ 303,000.00

$ 100k profit probably still makes him 2 downgrades to get to a Gawn or Grundy.

And if it doesn't work out with Preuss where do you go as a replacement. That is the issue taking low priced spec break out players. And especially so with rucks where the options are usually more limited than other positions.

 

[Manikato1]

Rowell only played 11% TOG in one of those matches. Most first year players do slow down as the year progresses though, some of them quite significantly.

Correct. But the stats are what the stats are. It was more about the point that how you start is not always how you finish and we don't know if Rowell would have maintained the rage or faded.

 

[stephen]

And if it doesn't work out with Preuss where do you go as a replacement. That is the issue taking low priced spec break out players. And especially so with rucks where the options are usually more limited than other positions.

Most years this is a concern with mid-price rucks but not sure it is this year, if you think Marshall is a good starting pick anyway. Lots of very appealing options in the 200-300k range up forward (too many for me to fit in) so it's a pretty easy bail out to swing Marshall into rucks and pick up whichever one of the supercheap KPFs looks like making some quick $$$

 

[Darkie]

Most years this is a concern with mid-price rucks but not sure it is this year, if you think Marshall is a good starting pick anyway. Lots of very appealing options in the 200-300k range up forward (too many for me to fit in) so it's a pretty easy bail out to swing Marshall into rucks and pick up whichever one of the supercheap KPFs looks like making some quick $$$

This was my thinking too. I would likely pick Marshall as F only, but as R-F he provides a get out of jail card on Preuss as well. Could make for a pretty handy combo for those who like them individually.

 

[Herbie66]

And if it doesn't work out with Preuss where do you go as a replacement. That is the issue taking low priced spec break out players. And especially so with rucks where the options are usually more limited than other positions.

Stef Martin
Start McEvoy in defence
Start Marshall as a Forward

offer backup options if he doesn't work

 

[Bontempele]

Makes me wonder then why people are keen on starting Preuss @ $ 303,000.00

$ 100k profit probably still makes him 2 downgrades to get to a Gawn or Grundy.

I think Preuss will comfortably average at least 85 as n.1 ruck, which makes him outstanding value priced at 57 (+28). If a rookie is the alternative, they would probably average about 55 (this would be the worst rookie in the team, because we can assume all the best rookies will be picked either way).
A 123k rookie is priced at 23, so we'd get more value out of the rookie (+32), but the rookie comes with a substantially higher risk of getting dropped and making no money.

 

[stephen]

I think Preuss will comfortably average at least 85 as n.1 ruck, which makes him outstanding value priced at 57 (+28). If a rookie is the alternative, they would probably average about 55 (this would be the worst rookie in the team, because we can assume all the best rookies will be picked either way).
A 123k rookie is priced at 23, so we'd get more value out of the rookie (+32), but the rookie comes with a substantially higher risk of getting dropped and making no money.

Yeah I reckon ~85 is about the line for Preuss. If you think he goes that or above he's a pretty straightforward pick, unless rookies are just really deep this year. (I think he'll get that pretty easily and rookies will be thin on the ground)

 

[Herbie66]

I think Preuss will comfortably average at least 85 as n.1 ruck, which makes him outstanding value priced at 57 (+28). If a rookie is the alternative, they would probably average about 55 (this would be the worst rookie in the team, because we can assume all the best rookies will be picked either way).
A 123k rookie is priced at 23, so we'd get more value out of the rookie (+32), but the rookie comes with a substantially higher risk of getting dropped and making no money.

Which is fair enough , so he then gets to say $ 425 k.

I gather you then plan to upgrade him so you are still looking at downgrading 2 players (say a downgrade is worth $ 125 k) to get him to a Gawn/Grundy if their price actually drops enough.

So I am not sure what your reply actually means to be honest.

To me it seems we always have fallen mids during the Byes around $ 525-$550 k mark so it would make more sense to start Heppell as a mid rather than Preuss as a ruck (if they are expected to average the same , as theoretically it should be a lot cheaper to upgrade to a fallen mid than a Gawn/Grundy)

 

[pizza safety]

Going to be very hard to start Gawn at his price and age, really going to be a make or break decision because he is capable of scoring so well.

I've got a side with and without Gawn, and its pretty light on expensive rookies so it's vulnerable to change.

At the moment the way I'm getting Gawn is by going light in the forward line, which is not usually a good idea.



My preference at the moment is team #2, I don''t have too much FOMO with Gawn because I've started him the past 3 seasons and haven't felt the pain of not having him. If there was a time not to start him I would suggest it's this year at his current price and when he's turning 30.

 

[Eagling]

Picking Preuss is just as much about Gawn being a bad pick as it is about Preuss being a decent pick.

 

[pizza safety]

Picking Preuss is just as much about Gawn being a bad pick as it is about Preuss being a decent pick.

The question for me is how overpriced is Gawn, can he come close to 139 or will he drop back to about 125? Can you pick him after his best season when he is about to turn 30?

I think he benefitted a little bit from the shorter quarters and the tendency of SC points to value impact more last season. It's a bit difficult to judge for sure and not starting him is dangerous and carries risks .

You could be left with Preuss scoring poorly or you could be falling way behind the teams who have him and are using him as a captaincy option every week. He could be very hard to bring in at a huge price

I'm leaning towards not starting him but time will tell.

 

[Eagling]

The question for me is how overpriced is Gawn, can he come close to 139 or will he drop back to about 125? Can you pick him after his best season when he is about to turn 30?

I think he benefitted a little bit from the shorter scorers and the tendency of SC points to value impact more last season. It's a bit difficult to judge for sure and not starting him is dangerous and carries risks .

You could be left with Preuss scoring poorly or you could be falling way behind the teams who have him and are using him as a captaincy option every week. He could be very hard to bring in at a huge price

I'm leaning towards not starting him but time will tell.

Yeah I did start my first team with Grundy + Preuss but folk have spoken that Preuss hasn't been without injury concerns, and they've also mentioned that Gawn has a very easy ruck draw so if Gawn goes 180+ in a game in the first six weeks and you get the C it probably evens out even if he does drop back to 125-130 average by the end of the season.

But I'm still not 100% on starting either one at the moment.

 

[Eagling]

Also, people have mentioned that collectively, Gawn+Grundy costs about the same in 2021 as it did in 2020, with Grundy cheaper and Gawn more expensive, so the extra spend on Gawn could be recouped by Grundy.

 

[stephen]

Which is fair enough , so he then gets to say $ 425 k.

I gather you then plan to upgrade him so you are still looking at downgrading 2 players (say a downgrade is worth $ 125 k) to get him to a Gawn/Grundy if their price actually drops enough.

So I am not sure what your reply actually means to be honest.

To me it seems we always have fallen mids during the Byes around $ 525-$550 k mark so it would make more sense to start Heppell as a mid rather than Preuss as a ruck (if they are expected to average the same , as theoretically it should be a lot cheaper to upgrade to a fallen mid than a Gawn/Grundy)

I think it's more complicated than that but firstly I think anyone not starting Gawn is doing so because they assume he will at least fall back to his scoring level before the shortened quarters (125-130 range) which would see him drop below 650k before too long. 200-250k is not a stretch for a simple upgrade/downgrade if you plan for it properly.

The complication is factoring in the trades saved by avoiding overpriced players. If you successfully squeeze in an extra premo by focusing on the ones who represent better value then you have one less upgrade to do and are ahead on trades.

 

[freowho]

Did Docherty fatigue or did Teague or opposition teams make him more accountable?

 

[pizza safety]

Yeah I did start my first team with Grundy + Preuss but folk have spoken that Preuss hasn't been without injury concerns, and they've also mentioned that Gawn has a very easy ruck draw so if Gawn goes 180+ in a game in the first six weeks and you get the C it probably evens out even if he does drop back to 125-130 average by the end of the season.

But I'm still not 100% on starting either one at the moment.

Also, people have mentioned that collectively, Gawn+Grundy costs about the same in 2021 as it did in 2020, with Grundy cheaper and Gawn more expensive, so the extra spend on Gawn could be recouped by Grundy.

I just had a look at Gawn's early fixture and I would describe it as easy-ishy. I don't think it's really that easy if you look at rounds 1-7 (it's above average in suitability for him but not a cake walk). If you can get him in at round 8 before he plays Sydney, Carlton, Adelaide and Bulldogs I think you're not putting yourself at such a large risk.

Gawn only had one game with 170+ out of 43 attempts in 2018-2019, and 2 this year from 14 attempts, I think some of those very big scores were caused by the scoring and scaling this season and I wouldn't be too worried that a score that large would happen before I got him.

Regarding what they are combined compared to other seasons, I'm not sure it matters too much, you're picking him on his own merits and value.

 

[pizza safety]

Did Docherty fatigue or did Teague or opposition teams make him more accountable?

Teams definitely started paying more attention to him and it didn't always show up on Fanfooty either.

 

[Herbie66]

I think it's more complicated than that but firstly I think anyone not starting Gawn is doing so because they assume he will at least fall back to his scoring level before the shortened quarters (125-130 range) which would see him drop below 650k before too long. 200-250k is not a stretch for a simple upgrade/downgrade if you plan for it properly.

The complication is factoring in the trades saved by avoiding overpriced players. If you successfully squeeze in an extra premo by focusing on the ones who represent better value then you have one less upgrade to do and are ahead on trades.

My calculator must not be working properly as I am struggling to workout how you get a $ 400k Preuss to a $ 650k Gawn by a simple one down/one up.

Still think you need 2 down to get 1 up.

Rather start Heppell at a similar price and then go a 1 down/1up when he is $ 400k to a fallen premium mid $ 525 k.

Perhaps my brain is fried and my thinking is all wrong.

I guess having used 14-16 trades on my rucks last season I don't really want to go down that path again if I don't have too.

My initial draft side (using the Top 10 draft picks as fillers) has me 3-4-Gawn/Grundy which I am comfortable with , once the rookie shuffle begins I think I can squeeze in a $ 350k mid at M5 and possible one of those "value" pick forwards at F4.

Maybe Preuss becomes a 110+ player and could end up being close enough to the top 2 Rucks for the season.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Did Docherty fatigue or did Teague or opposition teams make him more accountable?

Docherty received plenty of attention after the first few rounds.

 

[stephen]

My calculator must not be working properly as I am struggling to workout how you get a $ 400k Preuss to a $ 650k Gawn by a simple one down/one up.

Still think you need 2 down to get 1 up.

Rather start Heppell at a similar price and then go a 1 down/1up when he is $ 400k to a fallen premium mid $ 525 k.

Perhaps my brain is fried and my thinking is all wrong.

I guess having used 14-16 trades on my rucks last season I don't really want to go down that path again if I don't have too.

My initial draft side (using the Top 10 draft picks as fillers) has me 3-4-Gawn/Grundy which I am comfortable with , once the rookie shuffle begins I think I can squeeze in a $ 350k mid at M5 and possible one of those "value" pick forwards at F4.

Maybe Preuss becomes a 110+ player and could end up being close enough to the top 2 Rucks for the season.

There are lots of ways. Most years there are one or two really good rookies who make it to 350k+. Downgrade them to a 123k rookie to make 225k and use that to fund a 425k Preuss up to a 650k Gawn.

Or maybe you sell one of those cheap KPFs (Daniher, Ben Brown, Jeremy Cameron) after they get a couple of big scores.

Or if things are really skinny on the rookie front you might have to seek value with your upgrade the week before to make sure you have some money in the bank to make up the extra. But if things are really tight on the money-making front it makes picks like Preuss even more important.