Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Bontempele]

Hello

It would be appreciated for any suggestion for my current version:
Balance: 38,400

• Bolton over Dusty as he usually does not wake until later on in the year
• Butters will be in his 3rd year in 2021
• Unsure how Dunkley will fit in the midfield rotation

View attachment 23946

I think getting all 3 of Lloyd, Gawn and Neale limits your ability to start with enough keepers, and forces you to start Z Williams, Butters and Bolton, who may not quite get to a 100+ average (top 6 defenders/forwards).

If, for example, you started with Grundy and Whitfield instead of Gawn and Z Williams (who I think will struggle to play every game), you would have two keepers instead of one. That means, later on, you would need to trade Preuss (perhaps 400k) to Gawn (perhaps 700k). That probably requires two downgrades, so you would be making 1+2=3 trades in total.

In contrast, with your current team, assuming Williams is not quite a premium keeper, you would need to trade Preuss (400k) to Grundy (600k), and also Butters (475k) to Dangerfield (575k). This requires the same number of downgrades (2), meaning 2+2=4 trades in total!

A similar argument would apply for Dusty vs Butters/Bolton, though I understand your reasoning behind him starting slowly (although 2018 he dominated early).

I think it's unlikely Daniher and Ziebell will return to any sort of reasonable scoring given their age and injury history, but they can always be replaced by rookies when they pop up.

I like that you have the obvious value players - Cripps and Preuss - and have avoided the Doggies mids with Treloar coming in.

 

[Darkie]

You won’t find many argue Rowells potential but as some others have pointed out his big scores came against Freo stuck in the hub, the worst football side to ever run out and an Eagles team that was struggling to beat their meat.

History says he won’t come out averaging 20 & 2 and there are some very attractive options at that price point without half the amount of risks he has.

He’s going to be a remarkable player it seems but there’s no reason to try and lever him into our sides this season I reckon. We’ll have decade of Rowell in our teams pretty soon.

I agree with your conclusion, he’s not in my side at the moment, and a risk/reward option in my view.

My point was that the start to his career was as good as almost anyone’s, so if someone was going to do something extraordinary in his second year, he’s much more likely than most. He can only beat the opposition that turns up to play the Suns, and it appears that he smashed them (142 average across those three games).

Personally I’m always skeptical about these second year picks (in general I think we should be looking for Rowell 2020/Walsh 2019 rather than Rowell 2021/Walsh 2020), but Oliver went 111 in his second year and hasn’t missed a game since, so it can be done!

Who do you like around that price point @BigRuss?

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I think getting all 3 of Lloyd, Gawn and Neale limits your ability to start with enough keepers, and forces you to start Z Williams, Butters and Bolton, who may not quite get to a 100+ average (top 6 defenders/forwards).

If, for example, you started with Grundy and Whitfield instead of Gawn and Z Williams (who I think will struggle to play every game), you would have two keepers instead of one. That means, later on, you would need to trade Preuss (perhaps 400k) to Gawn (perhaps 700k). That probably requires two downgrades, so you would be making 1+2=3 trades in total.

In contrast, with your current team, assuming Williams is not quite a premium keeper, you would need to trade Preuss (400k) to Grundy (600k), and also Butters (475k) to Dangerfield (575k). This requires the same number of downgrades (2), meaning 2+2=4 trades in total!

A similar argument would apply for Dusty vs Butters/Bolton, though I understand your reasoning behind him starting slowly (although 2018 he dominated early).

I think it's unlikely Daniher and Ziebell will return to any sort of reasonable scoring given their age and injury history, but they can always be replaced by rookies when they pop up.

I like that you have the obvious value players - Cripps and Preuss - and have avoided the Doggies mids with Treloar coming in.

Thank you for your help, after incorporating your advice:

Balance 16,000

 

[BigRuss]

I agree with your conclusion, he’s not in my side at the moment, and a risk/reward option in my view.

My point was that the start to his career was as good as almost anyone’s, so if someone was going to do something extraordinary in his second year, he’s much more likely than most. He can only beat the opposition that turns up to play the Suns, and it appears that he smashed them (142 average across those three games).

Personally I’m always skeptical about these second year picks (in general I think we should be looking for Rowell 2020/Walsh 2019 rather than Rowell 2021/Walsh 2020), but Oliver went 111 in his second year and hasn’t missed a game since, so it can be done!

Who do you like around that price point @BigRuss?

I don’t think it’s impossible by any means that he has an Oliver style second year, but time and time again we see that that sort of second year is the exception and not the rule.

Taranto is the clear standout for value mids from where I’m sitting but we have some nice pedigree players in Cripps, Cogs, Yeo and Kelly within 30k of Rowell’s starting price, not to mention the smattering of 300-350 types.

I think Kelly is in for a big year personally, properly back home in WA and had a year in their system.

 

[Darkie]

Hello

It would be appreciated for any suggestion for my current version:
Balance: 38,400

• Bolton over Dusty as he usually does not wake until later on in the year
• Butters will be in his 3rd year in 2021
• Unsure how Dunkley will fit in the midfield rotation

View attachment 23946

An interesting side with a few PODs:

- I haven’t followed Butters closely, but would probably like to see a bit more ceiling/consistent high scoring in his mid games to pick him. Based on clearances or D50s (two indicators I use to identify more mid time) his scoring is seemingly still a bit up and down for a premo forward with Danger, Sidey etc available.

- Bolton is one I’m sure you know well, but looks somewhat similar to me. His mid time appears clearer on the numbers (4+ clearances from R6 onwards) and he averages around 90 over that period with one above 106. There might be a bit of value there with a consistent mid role/some natural progression. His game count would be a concern if this was injury driven rather than selection driven, but at the Tiges it could be the latter?

- I like the idea of Danger (or another premo M-F) in the mids to improve structure while getting on more certain premo picks up forward.

- Gawn over Grundy could be a significant POD, especially if one of them was to get injured or have a down year.

- As a general comment, it looks like you’ve paid up for absolute top scorers (Lloyd, Neale, Gawn) and gone slightly cheaper/a bit mid-pricey in some other spots to o***et that. Personally I’m more inclined to get on the proven but cheaper equivalents (eg Mitchell and Grundy), especially after an aberration of a season, which allows me to avoid the Butters types, but if Titch and co don’t bounce back, or if you nail the Butters, Bolton type picks, you could be in a much better spot.

 

[Darkie]

I don’t think it’s impossible by any means that he has an Oliver style second year, but time and time again we see that that sort of second year is the exception and not the rule.

Taranto is the clear standout for value mids from where I’m sitting but we have some nice pedigree players in Cripps, Cogs, Yeo and Kelly within 30k of Rowell’s starting price, not to mention the smattering of 300-350 types.

I think Kelly is in for a big year personally, properly back home in WA and had a year in their system.

That looks to be a pretty good list. I was a bit surprised there wasn’t more chat about Kelly, there seemed to be an expectation that he’d go to another level last season but he actually regressed, making him cheaper. NN played very well too - maybe it’s a role thing, or maybe he comes on in 2021. Yeo and Taranto look fairly appealing as well, Cogs I’m a bit concerned about his game count and he seems super frustrating to own at times!

 

[Connoisseur]

J Dunkley:

2020 Western Bulldogs Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage%: (https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/)


RD1-RD11 (https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/centre-bounce-attendances-whos-driving-your-clubs-engine-room)
“Think of it this way: for the Western Bulldogs, 79.6% of centre bounce attendances come from the team’s top four preferred centre bounce players on the day. The remaining 20.4% are from players being rotated through there.

That makes the Dogs the league’s most predictable centre bounce team – if you’re coaching against them, you know they’re not going to vary it up across the course of the match as much as other teams might do.”

2020 Tackles for Western Bulldogs:
Total:



Dunkley averaged 5.9 tackles from 12 matches in 2020 and the only Western Bulldogs players that averaged more than 2.5 tackles and played more than 3 games were H Crozier (2.7), T Liberatore (3.6), T McLean (3.8), J Macrae (4) and M Bontempelli (4.9).

Only 1 score below 85 for Dunkley in 2020 which was the opening game.

Post Bye 2018-RD23 2019: 114.84 from 32 ( 3/32 below 80, 11/32 below 100, 11/32 120+)
Post Bye 2018-RD18 2020: 112.14 from 43 (4/43 below 80, 17/43 below 100, 14/43 120+)


Team Rankings:
2020:

Western Bulldogs- 6th for SC points, 3rd for Disposals and 10th for Tackles


2019:

Western Bulldogs- 5th for SC points, 4th for Disposals and 13th for Tackles


Impact of "Mr Magnets" and Treloar has and will be greatly exaggerated.

 

[Herbie66]

May as well get it out my system early

What would :-

Tom Green $ 351,400.00
Jye Caldwell $ 348,600.00
Dyson Heppell $ 319,100.00
Brayden Sier $ 313,800.00
Jackson Hately $ 310,300.00

need to average by the Bye rounds to make a $ 125-150 k profit.

Cheers

 

[BigRuss]

J Dunkley:

2020 Western Bulldogs Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage%: (https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/)
View attachment 23988

RD1-RD11 (https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/centre-bounce-attendances-whos-driving-your-clubs-engine-room)
Think of it this way: for the Western Bulldogs, 79.6% of centre bounce attendances come from the team’s top four preferred centre bounce players on the day. The remaining 20.4% are from players being rotated through there.

That makes the Dogs the league’s most predictable centre bounce team – if you’re coaching against them, you know they’re not going to vary it up across the course of the match as much as other teams might do.

2020 Tackles for Western Bulldogs:
Total:
View attachment 23990
View attachment 23991

Dunkley averaged 5.9 tackles from 12 matches in 2020 and the only Western Bulldogs players that averaged more than 2.5 tackles and played more than 3 games were H Crozier (2.7), T Liberatore (3.6), T McLean (3.8), J Macrae (4) and M Bontempelli (4.9).

Only 1 score below 85 for Dunkley in 2020 which was the opening game.

Post Bye 2018-RD23 2019: 114.84 from 32 ( 3/32 below 80, 11/32 below 100, 11/32 120+)
Post Bye 2018-RD18 2020: 112.14 from 43 (4/43 below 80, 17/43 below 100, 14/43 120+)


Team Rankings:
2020:
View attachment 23992
Western Bulldogs- 6th for SC points, 3rd for Disposals and 10th for Tackles


2019:
View attachment 23993
Western Bulldogs- 5th for SC points, 4th for Disposals and 13th for Tackles


Impact of "Mr Magnets" and Treloar has and will be greatly exaggerated.

Quality work mate. We’ll know pretty early in the piece if Dunkley is in that preferred set of players for bounces.

I’m leaning toward him not being there personally as Treloar can’t play anywhere other than midfield and Bailey Smith needs the continued exposure.

 

[Manikato1]

There are some very interesting questions:

• Where will Dunkley play / affect of Treloar on the rest of their midfield
• Will Adelaide be conservative with Hately (how often will they rest him)
• Will Heppell regain his elite status @ $319,100 very nicely priced
• Will Zac Williams be the panacea that Cripps needs in the midfield

Just to clarify the point about Heppell returning to elite level, IMO if Heppell is selected it is only on a stepping stone basis. The best Heppell has ave post 2015 is 101 and that is not keeper level for a mid. I’m thinking he is around 95 which makes cash and probably makes him upgradeable to a premium.

But stepping stone are fraught with danger -eg 2020 Devon Smith or Jack Stevens anyone?- and they were forwards. Midfield stepping stones are probably riskier again. I have Heppell in at M6 at the moment but that could change any time.

 

[Herbie66]

@Connoisseur

Great stats.

It might even be as simple as Bont , Macrae , Libba , Smith being actually better CBA players than Dunkley and nothing to do with magnets 😀

But maybe I think more what's best for the actual football team tactically foremost and not necessarily in SC points.

 

[Connoisseur]

Love some thoughts on a few players
Witherden
Butters
Rowell

Havent seen Witherden put together a consistent season and has had endurance issues in the past. Whether this preseason is enough to make him a premium is unknown. I dont love the pick.

A Witherden:

 

[Ironhawk]

May as well get it out my system early

What would :-

Tom Green $ 351,400.00
Jye Caldwell $ 348,600.00
Dyson Heppell $ 319,100.00
Brayden Sier $ 313,800.00
Jackson Hately $ 310,300.00

need to average by the Bye rounds to make a $ 125-150 k profit.

Cheers

Look at the 2020 season average for players priced around 125-150K higher and you will get a fair idea.

 

[Bomber18]

First crack for me.



General thoughts

• Most of the positions are up in the air for me. I am only really bullish on Marshall, Heeney, Grundy, Titch, Laird (subject to keeping the mid role) and Cripps as starting selections.
• Elite midfield starters are actually proving difficult for me. As starters, I have ruled out Neale (definitely overpriced), Steele/Trac (I very rarely start players after a breakout season), Macrae/Bont (hard to start with likely less CB rotations), Zerrett (overpriced due to longer games). Leaves Oliver, Fyfe, JKelly as who's left (not counting the Lyons, Mouch, Hunter types as less proven types). I have slotted in Fyfe and JKelly for now. Titch already locked as per above.
• So many elite options up forward but none really are selling me at this stage. Gone for Danger, Dunkley at this stage over Dusty/Sidey/Zorko. Rozee does interest subject to role. JD seems too cheap to ignore. Could easily turn into a quasi premo.
• Heppell I think will play more HB this season which I think may cap his ceiling at more 90-95, which is not too bad at 319k. Should be a more consistent 80-95 scorer in that role. I think I have to start him though given he's my DP but can understand why he might be overlooked.

 

[Herbie66]

Look at the 2020 season average for players priced around 125-150K higher and you will get a fair idea.

That would actually involve me having to do some research hahaha.

I will just have to plug some figures in TooSerious then in March and have a play around.

 

[Manikato1]

May as well get it out my system early

What would :-

Tom Green $ 351,400.00
Jye Caldwell $ 348,600.00
Dyson Heppell $ 319,100.00
Brayden Sier $ 313,800.00
Jackson Hately $ 310,300.00

need to average by the Bye rounds to make a $ 125-150 k profit.

Cheers

And in line with that can I offer you something from my bible of quotes that keep. In this case from Rowsus back in 2019

 

[Herbie66]

And in line with that can I offer you something from my bible of quotes that keep. In this case from Rowsus back in 2019

View attachment 23997

Please do , I enjoy your insights.

And just like that they are gone from my mind.

Depending on the rookies of course Round 1 , I was thinking I might be able to fit one in at M5.

 

[Darkie]

First crack for me.

View attachment 23994

General thoughts

• Most of the positions are up in the air for me. I am only really bullish on Marshall, Heeney, Grundy, Titch, Laird (subject to keeping the mid role) and Cripps as starting selections.
• Elite midfield starters are actually proving difficult for me. As starters, I have ruled out Neale (definitely overpriced), Steele/Trac (I very rarely start players after a breakout season), Macrae/Bont (hard to start with likely less CB rotations), Zerrett (overpriced due to longer games). Leaves Oliver, Fyfe, JKelly as who's left (not counting the Lyons, Mouch, Hunter types as less proven types). I have slotted in Fyfe and JKelly for now. Titch already locked as per above.
• So many elite options up forward but none really are selling me at this stage. Gone for Danger, Dunkley at this stage over Dusty/Sidey/Zorko. Rozee does interest subject to role. JD seems too cheap to ignore. Could easily turn into a quasi premo.
• Heppell I think will play more HB this season which I think may cap his ceiling at more 90-95, which is not too bad at 319k. Should be a more consistent 80-95 scorer in that role. I think I have to start him though given he's my DP but can understand why he might be overlooked.

Very nice side, as expected. I agree with a lot of your thinking and preferences on picks.

I’m encouraged to see someone pick Doc, he’s been locked into my side but I was starting to wonder if I was missing something obvious! Also am pleased to see you pick Heppell, although your rationale gives me less comfort

My main observation would be that there’s a fair bit of injury risk in that midfield. I get the appeal of the individual players but Fyfe and Kelly create a lot of headaches each year from my experience, and alongside Cripps and possibly Heppell and Taranto, I can see merit in erring more towards an Oliver type.

Otherwise it’s looking great to me.

 

[Herbie66]

And in line with that can I offer you something from my bible of quotes that keep. In this case from Rowsus back in 2019

View attachment 23997

Makes me wonder then why people are keen on starting Preuss @ $ 303,000.00

$ 100k profit probably still makes him 2 downgrades to get to a Gawn or Grundy.

 

[Bomber18]

Very nice side, as expected. I agree with a lot of your thinking and preferences on picks.

I’m encouraged to see someone pick Doc, he’s been locked into my side but I was starting to wonder if I was missing something obvious! Also am pleased to see you pick Heppell, although your rationale gives me less comfort

My main observation would be that there’s a fair bit of injury risk in that midfield. I get the appeal of the individual players but Fyfe and Kelly create a lot of headaches each year from my experience, and alongside Cripps and possibly Heppell and Taranto, I can see merit in erring more towards an Oliver type.

Otherwise it’s looking great to me.

Thanks for your thoughts!
Good call re injury risk! Might justify paying a bit more for Oliver.

Heppell’s role will be important to observe. He may get a good one at HB/Wing with Saad and McKenna gone which actually might be better than a rotating mid role. Could get kickins?