Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Ironhawk]

Drop in time on ground % 2019 to 2020 home and away games. Minimum 7 games both years.


View attachment 24625

I had a bit of a look at the TOG tonight as mentioned as well. I've posted tables below which show all players that decreased in TOG by at least 5% (left table) and all those that increased in TOG by at least 5% (right table) between 2019 and 2020. This is based on the footywire tables I linked to earlier, and does include some now retired players - I didn't bother with the fancy colours. Think the cutoff was 5 games in both 2019 and 2020 to make these tables.

 

[Vicwood]

M Gawn:
RD1: Avg VS Freo since 2015: 136.2 from 5
RD2: Avg VS StK since 2015: 118 from 11
RD3: Avg VS GWS since 2015: 135.17 from 6
RD4: Avg VS Geel since 2015: 103.57 from 7
RD5: Avg VS Haw since 2015: 141.4 from 5
RD6: Avg VS Rich since 2015: 150.6 from 5
RD7: Avg VS NM since 2015: 138.4 from 5

Last 3 matches against each side:
132+151+151
135+133+126
150+149+156
141+116+93
185+127+112
163+134+145
212+117+111
= 139.95 from 21 (1/21 below 100, 16/21 120+, 7/21 150+)

Impressive Numbers, good luck to those coach's who do not start with Max. Expensive but worth it.

 

[Vicwood]

R Laird:
Since 2015:
Played 119 games out of a possible 127
Avg of 100.02 from 119 matches
Recorded a 100+ avg in 3 of the last 4 seasons with 2/4 105 or greater.
18/119 between 0-79, 65/119 below 100, 28/119 120+
10/119 with less than 20 disposals

Midfield move in RD9:
25.67 Disposals
11.78 Contested Possessions
43.80% CPR
5.44 Tackles
118.11 SC
CBA %= 43%, 73%, 72%, 61%, 71%, 73%, 94%, 86% and 74%

When attending more than 70% of the CBA= 127.57 from 7
120+185+120+102+122+136+108

Definitely, maybe a lock for D2/D3. Im guessing we will all be watching his role in preseason.?

 

[Misky]

I had a bit of a look at the TOG tonight as mentioned as well. I've posted tables below which show all players that decreased in TOG by at least 5% (left table) and all those that increased in TOG by at least 5% (right table) between 2019 and 2020. This is based on the footywire tables I linked to earlier, and does include some now retired players - I didn't bother with the fancy colours. Think the cutoff was 5 games in both 2019 and 2020 to make these tables.

View attachment 24630
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View attachment 24632

Many thanks @freowho and @Ironhawk, amazing work!!

I was hoping to find some more “SuperCoach relevant” players in the top of that list but it looks like a few with the most reduced TOG are on the wrong side of 30 and/or due to injury.

Imagine if Connor Blakey was more favoured by the Dockers, would be an automatic selection. The others that we all already know about (Ziebell, Brown, etc) look serious value if they can remain fit. Stewart and Laird look like they could increase their scoring with more TOG this year if that occurs...

Something to ponder on, thanks gents!

 

[PC]

Anyone considering Ridley after a breakout year?

 

[Wolffy84]

My very early January average prediction for Laird is 103 and 4th highest averaging defender for the year (on the same tier as Ryan and Whitfield, but just behind both). For Ridley, I'm currently predicting a 97 average for Ridley. Should only get better at 22 years of age and with Saad and McKenna not there, his team mates will be feeding him the ball first.

(I know 103 and 97 averages aren't massive for top defenders based on 2020, but the defenders went nuts in the shortened quarters last season. 103 and 97 are both top 7 ranking defenders based on 2019 numbers.)

 

[Connoisseur]

R Laird:
https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/

 

[Connoisseur]

Should I start Gawn as a favour to all Preuss owners to ensure the move is successful?

2019:
Traded in M Gawn in RD14. Gawn scores 151, followed by a 46 and then misses RD16.

2020:
Traded in M Gawn in RD8. Gawn scores 157, followed by an 87 and a 107 and then proceeds to miss Rounds 11-13.

In each of the past 2 seasons, once I select Gawn he suffers an injury within 3 games.

 

[Under The Dome]

Many thanks @freowho and @Ironhawk, amazing work!!

I was hoping to find some more “SuperCoach relevant” players in the top of that list but it looks like a few with the most reduced TOG are on the wrong side of 30 and/or due to injury.

Imagine if Connor Blakey was more favoured by the Dockers, would be an automatic selection. The others that we all already know about (Ziebell, Brown, etc) look serious value if they can remain fit. Stewart and Laird look like they could increase their scoring with more TOG this year if that occurs...

Something to ponder on, thanks gents!

Gotta remember Stewart broke his collar bone early in that match so would contribute to low tog.

 

[Under The Dome]

R Laird:
https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/
View attachment 24644

Find that interesting no youth in the last 5-8 rounds. Played their better football in those rounds. Laird looks very favoured to resume that role for competitive results. Very surprised to see Jones on 0 for his last 6.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347310712050180101

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347400210704527360

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347690443123744769

"The midfield group was the one to watch, with Sholl setting the pace early despite having Keays, Jackson Hately, Chayce Jones, Rory Laird and Rory Sloane all hot on his heels. "

 

[Connoisseur]

L Franklin:
Price: $312,000





In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.

 

[Connoisseur]

T Kelly:


Career Average: 97.75 from 61(18/61 below 80, 33/61 below 100, 11/61 120+)




7 matches in 2020 with 20 or more disposals: 122.29 from 7 (1/7 below 80, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 140+)
17 matches in 2019 with 20 or more disposals: 112 from 17 (1/17 below 80, 5/17 below 100, 6/17 120+)
14 matches in 2018 with 20 or more disposals: 104 from 14 (3/14 below 80, 6/14 below 100, 2/14 120+)

 

[PC]

Like where your head's at @Connoisseur

Have T Kelly in my team at the moment after taking Mitchell out, but really struggling with the third prem mid.

Looked at Franklin but fear he is very well done and may bend any fork he is poked with

 

[Bomber18]

Definitely, maybe a lock for D2/D3. Im guessing we will all be watching his role in preseason.?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347310712050180101

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347400210704527360

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347690443123744769

"The midfield group was the one to watch, with Sholl setting the pace early despite having Keays, Jackson Hately, Chayce Jones, Rory Laird and Rory Sloane all hot on his heels. "

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347013241310908417

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347013241310908417

Who needs J Lloyd? I sure don't!

 

[Connoisseur]

Like where your head's at @Connoisseur

Have T Kelly in my team at the moment after taking Mitchell out, but really struggling with the third prem mid.

Looked at Franklin but fear he is very well done and may bend any fork he is poked with

T Kelly:
Great kick to handball ratio and contested possession rate which is highly desirable when selecting midfielders (underpriced ones as well).
Not a noted accumulator whilst usually featuring amongst the highest total turnovers.
2020-New club, rotating forward, decreased quarter length, average disposal efficiency, career low metres gained.

Hopefully only one way for his average to go.

L Franklin:
Dependent on team structure but starting Marshall in the ruck (over 1 of Gawn or Grundy), Dunkley/Danger in the midfield and Laird in defence should provide multiple outs if it goes pear shaped early.

 

[Vicwood]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347013241310908417

Thanks for sharing. LOCKED D3.

 

[Manikato1]

T Kelly:
Great kick to handball ratio and contested possession rate which is highly desirable when selecting midfielders (underpriced ones as well).
Not a noted accumulator whilst usually featuring amongst the highest total turnovers.
2020-New club, rotating forward, decreased quarter length, average disposal efficiency, career low metres gained.

Hopefully only one way for his average to go.

L Franklin:
Dependent on team structure but starting Marshall in the ruck (over 1 of Gawn or Grundy), Dunkley/Danger in the midfield and Laird in defence should provide multiple outs if it goes pear shaped early.

In terms of winning a flag I hope you are right with Telly and he goes gang busters but.....

When searching for a mid that I could lock in I looked at Telly. He is part of a mid field that seems to share the points around a lot. No Eagle mid has ave over 110 since 2015 when Priddis went 113. Not saying he cannot go 110 plus but as I would have been picking him as a keeper I could not get past the "share the love" scenario WCE midfield seems to have. More than happy to have him go 125 ave and make me look silly if that helps us win a flag though

 

[Bontempele]

Anyone considering Ridley after a breakout year?

Yes! Young breakouts tend to back it up.