Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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What are peoples thoughts on this combination for D4/5
  1. Laird - Def
  2. Taranto - Mid
or
  1. Williams - Def
  2. Laird - Mid
Is Taranto a better prospect scoring or being retained (Keeper) against Williams?
View attachment 24964
I don't mind both as potential starting picks but if i can only have one it'd be Williams for me. I have Williams ranked in my top 6 defenders, while Taranto I have ranked in the teens as a mid.
So whilst I think Taranto may well score every bit as well or possibly marginally better, Williams would still get the nod for his greater keeper potential
 
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W Milera:
Career disposals avg: 16.87
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 84.5 from 30 (11/30 below 80, 23/30 below 100)
SC avg when disposals below 17: 54.90 from 32 (29/32 below 80, 32/32 below 100)
I was a bit off Wayne when I heard he wasn't training until after xmas - he seems in full training now though and he is very very cheap comparted to his potential. Right back up on the watchlist for sure if he looks to have his preferred HB role in the pre-season games.
 

Darkie

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I'm trying to put together a check list for my starting team this season, to ensure I don't pick dodgy starters, as I usually do. This will basically be a list of rules that I'll make sure I'm sticking to for a change. This includes stuff like "No key forwards" and "Don't pick based on high scoring pre-season games" - both have burned me multiple times previously. I know we have a lot of very good coaches here, any suggestions for items to add to this list will be greatly appreciated.

Also, has anyone heard what is happening with the number of trades and price changes this season? This will influence my starting team: if prices change after 2 games rather than 3 again, the right rookie selection especially is crucial. I badly messed things up last year and it took me over half the season to fix up my starting side.

Thanks.
For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*

With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.

- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?

- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.

- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.

- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).

- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.

- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.

- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?

- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!

- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.

- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.

- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.

- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.

- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.

- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.

- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).

- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.

- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.

- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.

- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.

- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.

- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.

- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).

- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.


*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.
 
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I was a bit off Wayne when I heard he wasn't training until after xmas - he seems in full training now though and he is very very cheap comparted to his potential. Right back up on the watchlist for sure if he looks to have his preferred HB role in the pre-season games.
+1.

Milera/Hately avg 85-90 IMO
 
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For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*

With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.

- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?

- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.

- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.

- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).

- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.

- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.

- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?

- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!

- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.

- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.

- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.

- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.

- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.

- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.

- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).

- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.

- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.

- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.

- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.

- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.

- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.

- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).

- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.


*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.
Great post @Darkie!

This one really resonated with me as I put together some initial draft teams.....


Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!
 
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For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*

With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.

- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?

- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.

- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.

- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).

- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.

- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.

- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?

- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!

- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.

- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.

- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.

- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.

- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.

- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.

- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).

- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.

- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.

- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.

- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.

- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.

- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.

- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).

- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.


*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.
Very good advice here! I did notice a few mistakes I have made in recent seasons listed here, I'll make sure I reread these points in the days prior to lockout to hopefully avoid them this year.
 
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Great post @Darkie!

This one really resonated with me as I put together some initial draft teams.....


Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!
Absolutely. I seem to remember trying to argue Ceglar as a good selection as a R/F last season. Apologies to anyone I did convince - I got burned too. Probably held him a bit long expecting improvement, more in hope I think that he would be that possible 100+ scoring forward that never eventuated.
 
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For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*

With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.

- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?

- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.

- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.

- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).

- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.

- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.

- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?

- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!

- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.

- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.

- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.

- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.

- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.

- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.

- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).

- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.

- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.

- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.

- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.

- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.

- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.

- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).

- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.


*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.
Sound Advice.
 
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Great post Darkie. I wish I'd known all those things when I first starting playing the game.

The point around pre season TOG and role is pivotal but still so difficult to pin down. I look back at the numbers from last season's preseason games, and I'd still pick up Darcy McPherson again!

Another factor I like to utilise is age. From an SC perspective, players usually peak around 27 years of age. So if I can't decide between two players and one is 25 years old and the other is 27, I'd select the 25 year old, as I'd expect them to increase their average further from that point in time.
 

Darkie

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Great post Darkie. I wish I'd known all those things when I first starting playing the game.

The point around pre season TOG and role is pivotal but still so difficult to pin down. I look back at the numbers from last season's preseason games, and I'd still pick up Darcy McPherson again!

Another factor I like to utilise is age. From an SC perspective, players usually peak around 27 years of age. So if I can't decide between two players and one is 25 years old and the other is 27, I'd select the 25 year old, as I'd expect them to increase their average further from that point in time.
I can’t recall looking closely at MacPherson last year, but I find that preseason games are much more useful for assessing rookies than anything else. Some people ignore it for keeper picks, and I think you could do worse ... I would say it can still be useful, but clubs can use it to experiment or to give an opportunity to a young player while an experienced player has a rest. That means it can sometimes be misleading.

Two other things come to mind:

- No rule works perfectly in my experience. That’s why I tend to use more of a guidelines approach. It’s all about putting the odds in your favour in my view, but there are no guarantees. If anyone has any rules that work all the time, I am very keen to hear them! :)

- I find that if you get a couple of starting picks wrong, it doesn’t hurt you that much - so a MacPherson type doesn’t kill your season (realistically it might be 25 points per week, or just over 1% of your score, until you fix him). You can correct at round 3 if you don’t have more pressing priorities, or upgrade around them and deal with them when it suits. It’s when you have more like half a dozen problem starting picks that you end up in a tough spot!
 
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Hurt locker: The latest on your AFL club’s long-term injuries and when you can expect them back

Marc McGowan
January 17, 2021 - 4:43PM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Pre-season matches are barely a month away, so the focus is firmly on who’s fit, who’s not and who’s facing a race against time.

The Herald Sun has checked in with every AFL club to find out how they’re tracking since training resumed, post-Christmas.

ADELAIDE
Key pair Matt Crouch (hip) and Daniel Talia (knee) underwent post-season arthroscopic surgery and resumed post-Christmas training in the rehabilitation group. However, they are progressing well and the Crows plan for both players to be available for the AAMI Community Series, albeit on potentially limited minutes. Wayne Milera returned to full training last week after a foot stress fracture ruined his 2020 season. Luke Brown, Andrew McPherson, Tom Lynch and David Mackay – after arthroscopic surgery on his left knee bursa in November – are fit and completing all activities.

BRISBANE
Untried tall utility Connor McFadyen is the sole player on the injury shelf for the Lions as he works his way back from an anterior cruciate ligament tear sustained in match practice in July. Much of the interest in this department at Brisbane will be whether its highly regarded medical team can get injury-prone recruits Joe Daniher and Nakia Cockatoo playing regularly.

CARLTON
The Blues remain hopeful Charlie Curnow will be available to play in the second half of the season, after undergoing surgery in November to fix a fractured kneecap. It’s the same knee – his right – that’s caused him various issues dating back to 2019. Nic Newman hasn’t played since round two last year because of his own significant knee injury, but is back in skills work and aiming to re-join the main group in about a month. Newman could be available for round one or soon after. Patrick Cripps (shoulder surgery) is doing most of training already, while Sam Docherty (ankle), Brodie Kemp (back) and Caleb Marchbank (soreness) will re-join main training in the coming weeks. The Carlton footballer who was stranded in NSW because of the border closures returned to Victoria last week.

COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies have eased several players back into training, but Darcy Moore (finger), Josh Daicos (hip) and Jeremy Howe (knee) are the ones of note on modified programs. They aren’t planning to rush any of them, but the idea is to increase their training loads closer to the pre-season games starting in mid-February.

ESSENDON
Fast-rising midfielder Andy McGrath is back in full training after overcoming a syndesmosis injury, and there is positive progress for Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis. Heppell’s wretched 2020 campaign included ankle surgery in June and further foot operations at season’s end, while Zaharakis underwent PCL surgery. Both players are gradually increasing their running loads. Patrick Ambrose (foot surgery) is also recovering well, and son-of-a-gun Tom Hird is joining in training after a navicular setback last year. Irving Mosquito and Lachie Johnson are on individual rehabilitation programs from respective ACL ruptures.

FREMANTLE
Important defenders Joel Hamling and Alex Pearce are back training after troublesome ankle issues ruled them out for the entirety of 2020. In fact, Hamling snuck in some work from mid-December with the first-to-fourth-year players. Pearce started his ‘introduction to football training’ post-Christmas, while Darcy Tucker (hamstring) hopes to do the same in early February.

GEELONG
Sam Simpson underwent post-season shoulder surgery that typically would sideline him for up to five months. Simpson crashed into the Gabba surface in a sickening aerial Grand Final collision that saw him land heavily on his head and left side. He’s on a personalised program away from the main group and is progressing well without any setbacks to date.

GOLD COAST
Defender Rory Thompson hasn’t been sighted at AFL level since 2018 and that drought is unlikely to end this year as he recovers from a partial anterior cruciate ligament tear. This one is on his right knee after he previously suffered a setback to his other knee. Top-10 draftee Elijah Hollands is on a modified program from his own ACL injury 11 months ago. The news is better for second-year sensation Matt Rowell, whose recovery from shoulder surgery is tracking well. Rowell will begin to increase his contact work this month and gradually progress from there.

GWS GIANTS
Former captain Phil Davis is recovering from post-season knee surgery and is still in the rehabilitation phase, but is running and participating in some drills. Fellow defender Sam Taylor has resumed full training after a debilitating case of viral, or septic, arthritis ruined his 2020 season and left him hospitalised. Promising ruckman Kieren Briggs is also making positive progress from off-season hip surgery and is back involved in most drills.
 
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HAWTHORN
Star defender James Sicily will undergo a minor procedure in the next week to aid his recovery from an ACL rupture in his right knee in August. The Hawks say the operation won’t impact the 12-month timeline they’ve placed on Sicily returning. The other injury of note is to Jack Gunston, who could be sidelined for four more months after undergoing surgery on a bulging disk in his back. He is almost five weeks post-operation and will look to resume running in about a fortnight. Tom Mitchell and Conor Nash both had post-season shoulder surgery in October and were expected to require up to four months’ rehabilitation.

MELBOURNE
Angus Brayshaw (foot), Michael Hibberd (ankle) and Harry Petty (groin) are the only Demons to have missed a training session post-Christmas. Brayshaw sustained the injury in the round 15 loss to Sydney and left the club’s hub for surgery not long after. He’s hoping to start reintegrating into training in the next fortnight. Hibberd aggravated an old injury, but will be back in skills training soon, while Melbourne is taking a cautious approach with Petty after he missed the entire 2020 campaign.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Key forward prospect Charlie Comben (tibial stress fracture) is the Kangaroos’ biggest concern, following a back stress fracture ruining his debut season last year. Scans confirmed Comben’s latest fracture after he reported calf soreness. The Roos will again be cautious with the 2019 second-round draft pick. Taylor Garner (hamstring) and Kayne Turner (sesamoid/toe) are easing into post-Christmas training after injury-ravaged campaigns.

PORT ADELAIDE
The Power are in terrific shape at this stage of the pre-season. Hamish Hartlett (arthroscopic clean-out of his right knee), Travis Boak (knee) and Tom Jonas (finger) had post-season surgery. Hartlett’s was considered the only one of note, but he’s already back running and getting involved in training. Boak and Jonas have resumed normal activities.

RICHMOND
The Tigers have two players, Ivan Soldo and Noah Cumberland, on the comeback trail from ACL setbacks. Soldo’s injury occurred in round 17 against Geelong, in mid-September, so there’s some chance he misses all of 2021, but there’s still hope he can return this season. Richmond physical performance manager Peter Burge is comfortable taking it slowly with Soldo, who is yet to resume running on the AlterG anti-gravity machine. Cumberland is more advanced and even having to be held back. He’s more than seven months removed from his knee injury and already doing high-intensity change-of-direction running. The goal, Burge says, is to get to the 10- or 11-month mark before contemplating him doing more. Veteran Bachar Houli (torn calf) is slowly progressing from his injury on Grand Final day, but the Tigers plan to take it easy with him.

ST KILDA
Jade Gresham is the player of most interest. The 23-year-old didn’t play after round 11 last year, because of a stress fracture in his lower back. He skipped the Saints’ post-Christmas time trial – although he completed some running on his own – and will ease his way back. The hope is Gresham will get involved in parts of full training to begin with, then will re-join the main group in the next few weeks.

SYDNEY SWANS
All eyes are on Lance Franklin, who didn’t play a game last season because of a serious hamstring injury and later groin soreness. ‘Buddy’ has increasing his running intensity and is getting involved in skill drills as the Swans slowly ramp him up. Isaac Heeney is on a similar timeline to Franklin after season-ending ankle surgery last year, while co-captain Dane Rampe has resumed full training after recovering from twice breaking his left hand and requiring an operation. There’s also good news for George Hewett, who’s completing skills sessions after back surgery, but without overdoing it. Sam Naismith is progressing well from his latest ACL rupture in late June and completing controlled running, but doesn’t have a timetable to return.

WEST COAST
The Eagles remain optimistic that Elliot Yeo (osteitis pubis) – who last played in round 11 last year – will be available to play early in the season. However, coach Adam Simpson is reluctant to say exactly when they’re targeting for his return. The dual All-Australian is straight-line running, kicking and participating in warm-ups, but will increase his output in the next month. Yeo could progress to change-of-direction work as soon as this week as he gradually reintegrates into training.

WESTERN BULLDOGS
The longest-term injury at Whitten Oval belongs to Toby McLean, who ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in the Dogs’ six-goal win over Hawthorn in September. McLean is making steady progress and completed his first run since on the AlterG anti-gravity machine two Wednesdays ago. He will resume running outside on Monday. Riley Garcia had a knee setback pre-Christmas related to an old issue and underwent arthroscopic surgery that will limit him for six to eight weeks. Ex-Demon Mitch Hannan is working his way back from a persistent groin problem, but hopes to play in the early part of the season.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...k/news-story/a678ed7e1851ca91d9804ab8e8d7e1fd
 
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