I'm trying to put together a check list for my starting team this season, to ensure I don't pick dodgy starters, as I usually do. This will basically be a list of rules that I'll make sure I'm sticking to for a change. This includes stuff like "No key forwards" and "Don't pick based on high scoring pre-season games" - both have burned me multiple times previously. I know we have a lot of very good coaches here, any suggestions for items to add to this list will be greatly appreciated.
Also, has anyone heard what is happening with the number of trades and price changes this season? This will influence my starting team: if prices change after 2 games rather than 3 again, the right rookie selection especially is crucial. I badly messed things up last year and it took me over half the season to fix up my starting side.
Thanks.
For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*
With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.
- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?
- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.
- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.
- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).
- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.
- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.
- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?
- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!
- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.
- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.
- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.
- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.
- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.
- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.
- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).
- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.
- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.
- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.
- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.
- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.
- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.
- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).
- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.
*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.