OK a disclaimer first: TT isn't a lock. I'm sounding dangerously like that's where I'm at but right now he's one of my favourite 450k guys and I have a slot for 2 of them at the moment (Zac W says hi)
I've got 3 of them in my current draft
Firstly all of this is of course pretty subjective. As i've said already I do think he can be a keeper but I disagree that in starting him you have to plan for him to be a keeper.
To be honest I'm surprised you don't see that as more of a possibility.
He's just not a good pick if he's not producing keeper numbers. You can get significantly better production and cash generation per dollar for a lot less and you're not spending significantly more to get a keeper. I just think any slot that you're not getting either is a bad pick.
To be clear, I'm not saying Taranto is a bad pick. I'm saying if you're of the opinion that he's not more likely than not going to be a keeper, he's a bad pick. Someone like Heppell, with similar scoring history, will make 150k+ at 95, at 100 Taranto doesn't even make 100k, he's going to need some serious price spiking to generate a mediocre cash return and then he becomes really hard to cash out.
As a keeper pick, Taranto would be an exceptional starting pick. As a cash generation option he's an incredibly inefficient option. For mine you'd want to feel very strongly about him being a keeper to sacrifice the cash generation that, likely, many options offer over him.
In my view the below elevator pitch for the guy screams pick me. I mean Tom Green is the next coming of Matt Rowell for some and I would say it's expecting A LOT of him if you were to suggest he's about to win a BnF playing pure mid for GWS either this year or next.
I'm a huge fan of Green, don't see any reason he can't do something similar to Oliver to be honest and from what I saw of him last year I'd say he's already shown more as a player than Taranto whose SC ratio has been strongly negative for the last 3 year for a reason (yes I'm counting last year's abysmal ratio as negative, from the same DT Fyfe had 30ppg more SC for comparison). Taranto may fix his disposal and tendency to rack up nothing touches but we're 4 years in and, if anything, he's gotten worse in those areas.
#2 draft pick. Played 76 games.
As a 21 year old, wins the BnF in a team that makes the GF, averaging 110/102 DT:SC in his 3rd year. That's super elite territory
In his 2nd year he averaged 88.7 SC.
Priced at 85 going into this one.
Average 6.2 and 6.5 tackles going into last year. Averaged 4.1 last year which we know was him coming back from a full shoulder reco. Thats +10 just from tackles you could expect from him this year. Has had the full pre-season, shoulder should be cherry ripe.
**how many people are prepared to pay 495k for Rowell when TT has 9mths recovery on him (including 11 AFL games where it was tested) and is 50k less.
The only knock is that DT/SC ratio from 2019 - and even then there's reason to hope that could improve.
If I'm Leon Cameron, in thinking to myself "what worked in 2019". Why wouldnt TT not be a full-blown solid part of the mid mix? With rotations lowering, the fact he can play half fwd is a positive cause it means he isn't sitting on the bench.
I feel like I'm attacking Taranto here when I do quite like the pick but...
That ratio is far from elite and that's his big issue. I don't think anyone is arguing he can rack up cheap stats and butcher it, he's proven he can do that, the problem is can he do anything to fix that? 110 is an exceptional DT season, there's very little scope to go higher in that area so he has to become a better actual player to change that equation.
Secondly 2019 is an anomaly, yes they limped into a GF but that was a season with so many injuries that their 1st choice midfield for the last couple of months was Taranto, Greene and Williams. Coniglio spent an inordinate amount of time forward and missed 7 games. Kelly missed 8 games. Ward missed the entire season. Hopper was just emerging. Green obviously not even there. I don't think Ward will be ahead of him (unless he can get back to his best but he looked done last year), Green will depend on if he's developed his engine to the point where he can play the role. Now to be fair, Taranto's scoring didn't really change throughout the year but I'd argue that the emergence of Hopper and the addition of Green are not in his favour, they're just better at the role he was playing and push him away from the stuff he does well.
The tackles is more like 5.2 in 2020 when you adjust for quarter length.
Again, I don't mind the Taranto pick, I can buy your argument, perhaps in his 5th season he's worked on his disposal and decision making and can become even "bad" in that area instead of horrific, if he could get to Danger/Martin/Fyfe level of bad disposal instead of his current level that would go a long way to fixing his ratio. If he could either get more contested or ditch his absurd clanger rate that would go a long way also. He's roughly halfway between Gaff and Oliver/Danger for his contested possession rate and yet his clangers are at the top of the list (was just as bad last year as 2019 per disposal).
The forward factor works for and against him, imo. I can buy that if he's playing full time mid it's a benefit but it could just as easily become his default position and I don't see any way he can put up keeper numbers in that scenario.
I don't mind him and if you feel firmly in him being a keeper you should 100% pick him and come here and say I told you so when it works
Mostly I think it's about being challenged, if everyone agrees a player is great, that's perfect, but I think it's good to get an idea what others think and feel on picks also. FWIW, Taranto is right up there on my radar for DT and there's a very strong chance I start him there if his role is what you're expecting in the preseason game, I just think he's a great DT type whose flaws are major problems for SC and those flaws aren't things that many players can fix.