Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

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With Mills playing as a mid in the practice match, I’m very much interested but if he were to come into my team it would be at the expense of Stewart.

So Mills v Stewart?
Been asking myself the same question for much of the preseason.

Stewart seems safe (and boring), wysiwyg.
Mills is a bit shiny and new (and risky), potential?
 
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Bit of a funky one, but interested on peoples thoughts.

1. Mills (D3)/Neale (M1)/Flynn (R2)
or
2. H. Young (D5)/Green (M6)/Gawn (R1)
 
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Don’t like Flynn at R2 and personally see Gawn as the highest priority for our starting teams so the second option.
Yeah with the way the teams are announced this year I won’t even know if Flynn is named until after Gawn plays which makes it hard.

Just think Flynn could be the best scoring rookie and him on field in a year with lack of rookies could be huge.
 

Darkie

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For mine it comes down to what you're going for.

Heppell I think is highly unlikely to hit premium numbers, there's a chance but his half back days capped out in the 90s for the most part and given the injury last year I think mid 90s is a solid expectation. At that level Heppell matches all but the best rookies and is a strong pick. If you believe stronger in his keeper potential then he becomes a must have but, imo, the realistic outcome is Heppell is a cash cow.

Harmes is harder to predict, in the right role he's a mid 90s guy who, barring a big change in overall defender scoring, would be a premium at that level. On the flipside I have a much harder time saying a 90s projection is a solid expectation for him. I think mid 80s+ is all you can really say with any certainty given his scoring history and a lot more role questions.

Basically... Harmes has better chances of being a keeper and also much better chances of being a poor pick. For mine Heppell should be a pretty safe cash cow pick, the mid rookies probably look good enough at this point to question whether he's needed for that purpose but his JS and scoring potential would justify the premium if you had that cash lying around.

I don't think either are likely to end up as genuinely bad picks barring injury. Harmes can score explosively and at an 85 average generates 100k, not a good pick but not a failure. Heppell makes 130k at 85 which would match his rookie output in the same role. Neither of those outcomes are disasters you can't recover from and there's more than enough upside on Harmes to justify the pick with that as your low end expectation and Heppell the same though the lack of keeper likelihood does lower it.

Ultimately I want to see Harmes' role with all the other mids playing but if his role holds up to what it was in the 1st match, I like him slightly more than Heppell because for me the #1 thing I always look for in a midprice pick is the keeper likelihood and Harmes wins that by the nature of the position he's listed at even if I think Heppell has a higher likelihood of averaging more.
I find your point about Heppell making 130k of he matches his rookie output in the same role quite compelling. I’ll need to think about that, but it’s a strong argument to my mind.

The challenge I’m facing is that at the moment, it’s more like Heppell + terrible/non existent def rookie vs Young/Cumming + probably decent mid rookie ...

... although I can potentially break that nexus if Heppell is a solid standalone pick worth building around, which I think you’ve made a pretty good case for.
 
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With Mills playing as a mid in the practice match, I’m very much interested but if he were to come into my team it would be at the expense of Stewart.

So Mills v Stewart?
Stewart is the safe pick with limited upside, probably 105 seems high end of his scoring but also limited downside. Be surprised if he's outside the 95-105 window.

Mills is the risky pick with high upside, his upside stretches all the way to that Dangerfield/Petracca breakout 115+ range if he's as good as he looks and was as a junior but stretches all the way back down towards 85 if he ends up in defense and the Swans are more competitive or even could be in the 80/90s if he just doesn't take to the midfield role, think of a guy like Brodie Smith for example.

I've gone Mills but I've got what is a pretty safe side otherwise and he's one of my riskier picks.

Yeah with the way the teams are announced this year I won’t even know if Flynn is named until after Gawn plays which makes it hard.

Just think Flynn could be the best scoring rookie and him on field in a year with lack of rookies could be huge.
We will know on Flynn before hand as it will be a debut and it will be obvious. If we don't see Mummy at all next week again it's his spot.

Agree totally on Flynn's scoring potential and value on field. From what I've seen I'd say that Downie is the only rookie right now I think presents a similar value profile. Campbell, Ziebell and Cox all look capable of scoring towards the same level but come at premiums.

I find your point about Heppell making 130k of he matches his rookie output in the same role quite compelling. I’ll need to think about that, but it’s a strong argument to my mind.

The challenge I’m facing is that at the moment, it’s more like Heppell + terrible/non existent def rookie vs Young/Cumming + probably decent mid rookie ...

... although I can potentially break that nexus if Heppell is a solid standalone pick worth building around, which I think you’ve made a pretty good case for.
Heppell realistically is battling a rookie in most scenarios and he can match most of them, the question is what does that 200k allow elsewhere? Can you generate more points or save trades in the future with it or is Heppell and his JS and scoring certainty a better utilisation? Can easily make both cases.

Heppell is one of those rare mid-price picks who has the range to workout with ending as a keeper.
 

Darkie

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Yeah with the way the teams are announced this year I won’t even know if Flynn is named until after Gawn plays which makes it hard.

Just think Flynn could be the best scoring rookie and him on field in a year with lack of rookies could be huge.
In that case I’d definitely go the Gawn option.

I’d consider downgrading Green and upgrading Young as well. Might as well get one keeper, and the mid rookies seem to have a bit more depth.

Personally I’d be very surprised if Flynn ended up being the best rookie this year. Pittonet only averaged high 70s in the end, and he had debuted as far back as 2016.
 

Darkie

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With Mills playing as a mid in the practice match, I’m very much interested but if he were to come into my team it would be at the expense of Stewart.

So Mills v Stewart?
I’ve had Stewart all along and still do. Thought about changing to Mills recently on the mid news, but saw that he played decent CBAs in three games last year (rounds 4, 8 and 9) and scored 112, 110 and 83 for an average of 102, in line with his season average. Opponents were the Dogs, Hawks and Saints FWIW.

I’d be happy starting Mills, but don’t have him ahead of my other staring options on that basis.
 
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If you had to choose 1 Neale v Lloyd?
I honestly think Neale is more likely to sustain his average than Lloyd. Both have had blips (or worse) in their preseasons. Neale is also a legitimate full blown captain option.

I'd be genuinely surprised if they're not both top line premium keepers at season end barring injury though.
 
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If you had to choose 1 Neale v Lloyd?
Neale
Better captaincy option
Higher ceiling
Looked great in the intra club

Lloyd has an unreal record though. Heard on a podcast hes gone over 100+ more then Neale and Gawn over the last 3 years. He normally goes 110+ too. Will he get more defensive attention like newnes at Carlton did after half time last year? He didn’t handle it well and if Sydney become more competitive he’s the link man and I can see him getting clamped. Neale is too inside to worry about tags. The only reason he scored so badly against the saints and swans last year is because he didn’t hunt the ball like normal. He sacrificed his game at stoppages to get teammates involved and in better positions. Was selfless and hurt every minute watching.

I’ve just got Neale back into my team and it feels bloody good so would be picking him. Another factor is I Think he’ll be harder to upgrade to unless you trade a cunners of Taranto type
 
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This has probably been asked but Green v Caldwell?
For me- Green.

It's not that I love him as a pick, its more that (at this stage) I hate the Caldwell pick. Lets see how many CBA's he gets this weekend. I think last week's numbers were hyperinflated
 

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This has probably been asked but Green v Caldwell?
This is a tough one.

I think Green will average more but Caldwell is more likely to be a keeper.

I do think there’s a chance that Green does an Oliver in his second season though while absolute best case scenario for Caldwell is 95.

Green, by a whisker.
 
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