Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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Do you have them? Have conceded in Clark.
Yes, have both at the moment. Daniher drops out every now and then during reshuffles but I would like to start with him. Teams do look better without them when you squeeze that extra premo in but I think it's fools gold, unless the rookies really outperform expectations.
 
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Nah man, you don't even have Gawn or Grundy.......The GnR gods will destroy your season if you claim that as a GnR team.
Claiming it... every line has only guns and rookies (sure, some are all rookies but that's ok right?) :p

Doesn't mean it won't tank though.
 
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So i currently have 13 no Lloyd
yeah, have looked at two versions of my team, 12 and 13.

13 is minus Lloyd, Clark, Danger, Cahill > into the team Taranto, Ridley, Daniels, 123k rook.

Just didn't feel right, Taranto and Rowell, could have 2 x M8. 5 defender yet not Lloyd, Whitfield, Ryan.
 
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I’ve spent too much time with @Herbie66
hahaha

will never understand anyone locking in a side/structure weeks and weeks ago without exploring Plan A , B , C , D.

It's funny now that rookies are announced , whether people follow them on their respective lines or not and now people are starting to question their JS before they have even played a game

seriously

I am sure the site will go into major panic/stress in the next 24-48 hours for those that are unprepared.

Let the fun begin

Interesting

Lloyd
Neale , Steele , Oliver , Macrae , Petracca
Gawn , Grundy
Dangerfield

costs $ 5,985,900.00

Add a $ 1 million bench and leaves you about $ 3 million for 14 players.

I don't think I can look at anymore combination of players or teams so just wish Round 1 would start.

Just need to lock in Carlton , Collingwood , Richmond , Western Bulldogs players and then reassess teams again Friday night.
 
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How much cash is everyone keeping in the bank for the inevitable correction trades?

Normally I like to have about 20k but with the sub rule/ uncertainty over some of the rookies, I am planning on having upto 80K which sounds ridiculous but I think these are exceptional circumstances.
 
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How much cash is everyone keeping in the bank for the inevitable correction trades?

Normally I like to have about 20k but with the sub rule/ uncertainty over some of the rookies, I am planning on having upto 80K which sounds ridiculous but I think these are exceptional circumstances.
I have 5k 😂
 

Darkie

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How much cash is everyone keeping in the bank for the inevitable correction trades?

Normally I like to have about 20k but with the sub rule/ uncertainty over some of the rookies, I am planning on having upto 80K which sounds ridiculous but I think these are exceptional circumstances.
I tend to agree. A little extra can be very helpful at R3 (which is such a key round), especially if you've gone with lower-priced rookies.
 
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For me it’s probably more a list of strong guidelines than rules, but they operate in a similar way ... I just need a stronger “pull” or argument in favour of a particular player if the below applies to them.*

With that said, this is what I would suggest to a new or developing coach - both in terms of specific “rules”, and general approach for starting sides. It won’t be for everyone (eg those with a particularly good eye for young players, which I don’t have, might take a different tack), but it works pretty well for me, and is probably easier to replicate than some alternate approaches.

- Have a specific reason for selecting every player. If you can’t explain a pick, it’s probably not a very good one. Work backwards from the finished side you are targeting - how does this selection contribute to that, and is it the best selection to do so?

- Getting on the best rookies is priority #1. Flex other factors to ensure you do this. The second wave of rookies are also significantly inferior for the most part, particularly in terms of depth.

- You can make more room for good rookies, and improve your chances of getting almost all the good ones, by picking fewer, but higher quality, premiums with few to no mid pricers.

- Players with significant injury history (missing 2+ games a year) should largely be avoided without a strong reason to pick them, such as a meaningful price discount. This could be particularly important in 2021 given the likelihood of (1) rules/fixtures changing on the fly, and (2) greater prevalence of injuries (eg 2020 hammies).

- In general I think that injury history/durability can be assessed over 3+ years, but scoring history from >3 years ago is not that relevant, given personnel, rule and style changes, players aging, etc.

- Back history in in most cases. Keeper picks should have at least one year of premium scoring behind them, otherwise they’re really a speculative breakout pick. Having up to about 3 of the latter is okay in my view, but that’s an upper limit, and I wouldn’t have them all on one line. I’d be inclined to take more if they’re very cheap, have a genuine chance of being a top scorer on their line (eg a very clear and favourable role change) and/or a history of durability or periods of premium scoring.

- Role is extremely important. Is there actual evidence of a role change, or just press/forum
/player speculation? How strong is the evidence - could it be simply because other players were missing, or a pre season experiment? Does it make sense from an AFL (not SC) perspective?

- Try not to become wedded to any player, eg, by arguing strongly for them on a forum, and being unwilling to back down when circumstances go against a pick!

- Do not seek PODs. Just aim to choose the best side. There are hundreds of opportunities to create PODs later in the unlikely event you are genuinely in contention. Get into contention first.

- Some AFL coaches tend to be frustrating for SC coaches, but this can also create opportunity. Eg if the Bulldogs rotate their mids “too much”, this is bad for a full priced mid with limited history behind them, but could be very good for a forward eligible young player who is progressing to become part of this rotation.

- Ensure that your team has some structural flexibility heading into the first round of price changes. You want to use that round to ensure your side is well set up and on all the good rookies/obvious break outs (there are usually fewer genuine ones than it appears early!), not trying to fix half a dozen silly picks. This flexibility can be in the form of cash, players at a range of price points (within reason), DPP or spread of players across lines.

- Make sure you have good balance across your side. Don’t lock in all 6 forward keepers, for example. Also don’t take in 10 players coming off LTIs, or 4 mids with injury risks.

- When in doubt, take the DPP, the cheaper player or the one who still has natural improvement. This is particularly true with rookies, but can work with premiums as well. Proven history and durability are more important for premiums.

- Make sure you have at least two good captain options, and that the timing of their games/your loop agent’s games works as a combination.

- For mid pricers, query whether its viable for them to (1) average at a premium level, or (2) average 30+ more than they are priced at. If it’s neither, the odds are probably heavily against them being a good pick. Mid pricers are “safer” in the forward line or defence (lower scoring lines) and generally safer if they’re a lock in their best 22, durable, and have some premium history behind them. Heppell would probably be a good example (noting potential change of role, and recent injury - although this will almost always be a feature of a fallen premium style mid pricer).

- Personally I don’t think that planning too heavily for byes from R1 is the best approach, but I’d definitely try to avoid boxing yourself in to only trading in players from two bye rounds for half of the season. Ie an equal or optimal spread is not critical in my view, but don’t load up on too many from one round too early, unless you have a plan to tank that round.

- In a normal year, pre season TOG is almost as useful as pre season scoring for identifying good rookies. Watch who played each pre season game though, and assess TOG/role/scoring with that in mind.

- Rookies with mature bodies, and those who have played against men before (eg SANFL) are my preference. A high contested possession rate is also quite advantageous -
I understand there are few to almost no successful real-world rookies with very low CPR heading into their rookie season - their junior performances seldom translate.

- In general I find it best to assume that the rookies show up, but that they won’t all be bottom priced, and that you should keep perhaps $100-150k in your pre season planning to allow for late adjustments heading into R1 itself. Starting with maybe $50-100k in cash at the end of R1 is usually my preference. Assuming that the rookies won’t show up (which they basically always do), or panicking when it looks like they won’t, can lead to very mid priced teams that take weeks and weeks to fix.

- For premiums you are weighing up starting or upgrading into, I usually consider: fitness (although you really want your starting premiums to be 100% fit), early draw, any discount in their price, and how volatile their scoring is (eg how likely is it that they’re available cheaper?). Level of confidence is also very important - if in doubt, you can almost always pick up a player later.

- Intereuptwd pre seasons are a pretty big red flag for a full priced keeper. They can work out, but generally your chances are much better if a player has had a full preparation. Otherwise they often start slow, costing both points and cash.

- For forward keepers, pick players that will play midfield or perhaps ruck. The only exceptions that come to mind are Buddy (major injury issues) and Hawkins (who has had great years but also down years).

- If in doubt, make the decision that adds to, rather than subtracts from, your flexibility. You never know when an opportunity (like a low priced R-F playing as #1 ruck, or a premium mid at close to $400k because of an injury that’s unlikely to recur) presents itself, and you want to be ready to capitalize without significant disruption to your side or your plans.


*To take an extreme example, if a player was priced at zero, they’d be a strong chance to be selected, assuming they were going to play, regardless of the above - so to me it always has to be a holistic assessment.
For everyone who didn't read @Darkie's excellent post above from earlier in the pre-season, it's well worth a quick read before you finalise your team!
 
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To Macrae or not to Macrae, that is the question.

Seems well suited to the new rules. (y)
Seems well suited to longer quarters. (y)

Treloar factor, saw him burn Adams repeatedly last year. (n)
Midfield largesse and Bevo factor. (n)
 
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https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/li...s/news-story/3f2446f4193086bf8d7634bdda7f1eca

3. The medical sub is going to get a workout

The first medical sub of the year is likely to have plenty of pundits (and coaches) talking, with neither used for a player with concussion. A shoulder injury to Jack Silvagni saw him ruled out at HT, paving the way for recruit Oscar McDonald‘s first AFL outing in navy blue. His impact was felt immediately, with the 25-year-old kicking a goal early in the third and looming large up forward with six touches for the quarter and then a booming goal in the fourth term to keep the Blues alive. “You just wonder whether you’re thinking in the coaches’ box and thinking, the sub is having a big impact, we’ve got no injury, find one,” suggested Melbourne great Garry Lyon on Fox Footy. Late in the third term Nick Vlastuin was ruled out with a knee injury, paving the way for Jack Ross to enter the game. An update at three quarter time on Channel 7 indicated that, while Silvagni had suffered a partial dislocation of the shoulder, Vlastiun copped a knock to the knee that likely wouldn’t keep him out of next week’s clash.

2. Dusty is ... still Dusty

Damien Hardwick mentioned pre-game that Dustin Martin was in elite nick heading into Round 1. While he can sometimes ebb and flow throughout the early rounds before peaking when it matters, Martin looked pristine from the very first bounce, racking up seven touches in the opening term, booting a vintage goal (complete with a trademark fend off) in the second term, another in the final term and a couple of passages where he threatened to seal the deal for Richmond. “He was magnificent in that last 10 minutes - it was like a man playing against boys,” Lions great Jonathan Brown said on Fox Footy. A fit, firing and focused Martin so early in the season is ominous for the rest of the competition.

1. The Blues are up to the hype

Even without the second of their star recruits in Zac Williams, the Blues looked ready to take their game to the next level in 2021. A lack of composure up forward at times saw several opportunities go begging, but Carlton were fierce at the footy and blistering with the ball in hand, with several passages seeing Adam Saad open up the corridor for his teammates out of defence. The only problem was their late fadeout - Patrick Cripps “looked out of juice” and reflected the team in the final quarter, according to Jonathan Brown. In the end it was a four-goal loss, but there’s reason to believe in this group going a step further than last year.
 
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https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/li...s/news-story/eef69e116673323954edc1b7458265b7
THE 3-2-1 - What we learned


3. $7M MAN’S PERFECT RESPONSE TO CRITICS

Count out Brodie Grundy at your peril.


When the Magpies needed him, he delivered, with a strong performance helping his side control the midfield battle against the Blues.

The gun ruckman got the chocolates over Carlton’s Marc Pittonet - as he’d be expected to do, but still a great sign given his slump across the 2020 season, as well as a disappointing Round 1 showing against Stefan Martin.

Grundy had 15 hitouts-to-advantage at three-quarter-time. He didn’t quite get his hands on the footy as much as a typical great Grundy game, with 16 disposals and four clearances, though he added seven score involvements.

“I thought he was first class in the ruck,” his captain Scott Pendlebury said post-match.

Grundy ended up as the seventh-highest rated Magpie and 10th-best on the ground, according to the Official AFL Player Ratings; not quite his elite best, but still promising.




Gibbons' career-best goals! | 00:50


2. HAS THE CHANGING GAME HURT CRIPPS MORE THAN MOST?

We know how good Patrick Cripps can be. He’s one of, if not the best, in the AFL at finding the contested ball and extracting it from the contest.

The problem has always been the other elements of his game; he’s not as damaging on the scoreboard as some of the other elite midfielders. If you wanted to be unfair, you’d say he’s a one-note player, but it’s a perfectly played note that soothes the soul.

So what happens when the game changes to remove the part Cripps is so good at?

In Round 1, there were an average of 49.3 stoppages a game; more than 20 per cent fewer than the average from 2016-19.

Then on Thursday night, the game was again a speedy one, with fewer stoppages around the ground and Cripps often unable to affect the play - particularly in the first half, where Collingwood kicked 11 goals.


“I just think the pace of the game in that first half, and the uncontested footy, the ball going end-to-end - he‘s a contested possession player, he’s a clearance player,” Richmond great Matthew Richardson said on Seven.

“Not a lot of stoppages around the ground tonight, and it’s probably just a symptom of the way the game’s being played.”

Essendon champion Jobe Watson added: “It just hasn‘t been the style of game where he’s gonna have a huge influence, where there’s lots of repeat stoppages and contests.

“The ball in that first half was really moving around quickly and it doesn’t suit his style.”

Cripps finished as the 19th-best player on the ground, according to the Official AFL Player Ratings, and the ninth-best Blue.




Feud back on! Ed sick to death of Power | 02:16


1. WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE BLUES’ DEFENCE?

The Blues‘ backs were rock-solid against Richmond. The Magpies blew their house down.

A week after conceding a massive 75 inside 50s, but keeping their side in it by not allowing easy goals, David Teague’s defence looked completely lost at sea - against a forward line that has been seriously underachieving.

They gifted gaping holes for the Magpies‘ forwards to run into, while Lachie Plowman was exploited again and again. Then when trying to counter-attack, you felt like every disposal was a likely turnover.

“Plowman‘s been an issue - he played well last week, but he’s had a lot of goals kicked on him tonight,” Brisbane champion Jonathan Brown said on Fox Footy.

SEN‘s Nic Negrepontis estimated Plowman had six goals kicked on him during the first half alone, while Blues favourite Matthew Lappin tweeted “how far away is (Caleb) Marchbank? Plowman, I’ve seen enough”.


Plowman was strangely sent to Mason Cox to start the second half and didn‘t have as much to do as his Blues controlled the territory and the game slowed down.

In the end Carlton only conceded 48 inside 50s for the match, while recording 60 of their own, yet their pourous defence conceded 16 majors - that’s one in every three entries, a completely unsustainable rate.

Something has to change - the personnel, the structure, or all of it. They’re not winning many games with a backline like they’ve shown so far in 2021.
 
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