Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[wogitalia]

I'm probably doing the wrong strategy, but I am not planning my future trades. Sure, I have noted the players that I would like to trade in, players that have dropped in price as possible trade-ins later and keeping an eye on the Byes, but that's about it.
My strategy is basically, one week at a time and taking advantage of what is presenting itself.
Too often in the past, my planning have been thrown out the window with unexpected situations that happen weekly.

Failure to plan is planning to fail

Seriously though, this is a bad pathway to venture down. Plans with contingencies and flexibility is the key but it's super important to know how many downgrades you need both for best and worst case plans because sometimes you need to take the double down even when it doesn't seem like it.

Last week I wanted to do it but couldn't because of Flynn but this week I will double down and also quite possibly next week depending what the rookies from last week do and if anyone pops up this week.

 

[Darkie]

I'm probably doing the wrong strategy, but I am not planning my future trades. Sure, I have noted the players that I would like to trade in, players that have dropped in price as possible trade-ins later and keeping an eye on the Byes, but that's about it.
My strategy is basically, one week at a time and taking advantage of what is presenting itself.
Too often in the past, my planning have been thrown out the window with unexpected situations that happen weekly.

This has been my approach so far as well. Partly by necessity, and partly because things have been so uncertain and it feels like the plans are going to go out the window regularly anyway (they certainly have to date).

I started the year with a fairly strong GnR focus and plan to largely persist with that if I can. In the near term, I’ll probably try to pick up cheapish actual premiums like Zorko rather than very cheap hopeful-premiums in the midfield. By the time I’ve got a couple more of the former, hopefully the rest of my first wave rookies are closer to maxed out, and some of the second wave are getting closer to tradeable levels.

I may change course with the IPL now suspended (that should save significant trade planning time), or I may persist with a broad but flexible plan rather than a specific list of intended trades.

 

[Bermi]

Failure to plan is planning to fail

Seriously though, this is a bad pathway to venture down. Plans with contingencies and flexibility is the key but it's super important to know how many downgrades you need both for best and worst case plans because sometimes you need to take the double down even when it doesn't seem like it.

Last week I wanted to do it but couldn't because of Flynn but this week I will double down and also quite possibly next week depending what the rookies from last week do and if anyone pops up this week.

This has been my approach so far as well. Partly by necessity, and partly because things have been so uncertain and it feels like the plans are going to go out the window regularly anyway (they certainly have to date).

I started the year with a fairly strong GnR focus and plan to largely persist with that if I can. In the near term, I’ll probably try to pick up cheapish actual premiums like Zorko rather than very cheap hopeful-premiums in the midfield. By the time I’ve got a couple more of the former, hopefully the rest of my first wave rookies are closer to maxed out, and some of the second wave are getting closer to tradeable levels.

I may change course with the IPL now suspended (that should save significant trade planning time), or I may persist with a broad but flexible plan rather than a specific list of intended trades.

I too started with a GnR focus, but the Rookies cash generation sort of mucked up those plans.
Instead of relying on plans, I am more focused on selecting my team based on set rules, like avoiding possible breakout players, selecting players after one spike game, avoiding FOGI (Fear Of Getting Injured) players, select mostly DPPs, etc. etc. Sometimes I may have to select players outside my rules, but generally I try and stick to my rules.

I see SuperCoaching as a Maze. Each week we have to make a decision on which path to take, to trade or not to trade, if so, who? If the correct trade is made, you move closer to the exit, to completing your team. Take the wrong path, trade, you then have to side trade to get back to the right path. Not always the correct trade is obvious, often we have to make a trade not knowing what role the AFL club has for that player, or what unpublished injury that player has.

All the good info I get from this Forum (which I find hard to keep up with), foretells me what likely may be coming up in the near future, so I mainly focus on that and try to stick to my rules, to complete my team, as soon as possible.

 

[jel]

Failure to plan is planning to fail

Seriously though, this is a bad pathway to venture down. Plans with contingencies and flexibility is the key but it's super important to know how many downgrades you need both for best and worst case plans because sometimes you need to take the double down even when it doesn't seem like it.

Last week I wanted to do it but couldn't because of Flynn but this week I will double down and also quite possibly next week depending what the rookies from last week do and if anyone pops up this week.

i'm also in the same boat.
With my mid term plan, I need to do a double downgrade this week to set me up for upgrades before and during the byes.
I'm sure that AFL clubs and their fickle selection policies added to the unknown form of rookies once they hit AFL will throw my plans into disarray, but at least I have a goal I can aim for.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Failure to plan is planning to fail

Seriously though, this is a bad pathway to venture down. Plans with contingencies and flexibility is the key but it's super important to know how many downgrades you need both for best and worst case plans because sometimes you need to take the double down even when it doesn't seem like it.

Last week I wanted to do it but couldn't because of Flynn but this week I will double down and also quite possibly next week depending what the rookies from last week do and if anyone pops up this week.

This has been my approach so far as well. Partly by necessity, and partly because things have been so uncertain and it feels like the plans are going to go out the window regularly anyway (they certainly have to date).

I started the year with a fairly strong GnR focus and plan to largely persist with that if I can. In the near term, I’ll probably try to pick up cheapish actual premiums like Zorko rather than very cheap hopeful-premiums in the midfield. By the time I’ve got a couple more of the former, hopefully the rest of my first wave rookies are closer to maxed out, and some of the second wave are getting closer to tradeable levels.

I may change course with the IPL now suspended (that should save significant trade planning time), or I may persist with a broad but flexible plan rather than a specific list of intended trades.

I too started with a GnR focus, but the Rookies cash generation sort of mucked up those plans.
Instead of relying on plans, I am more focused on selecting my team based on set rules, like avoiding possible breakout players, selecting players after one spike game, avoiding FOGI (Fear Of Getting Injured) players, select mostly DPPs, etc. etc. Sometimes I may have to select players outside my rules, but generally I try and stick to my rules.

I see SuperCoaching as a Maze. Each week we have to make a decision on which path to take, to trade or not to trade, if so, who? If the correct trade is made, you move closer to the exit, to completing your team. Take the wrong path, trade, you then have to side trade to get back to the right path. Not always the correct trade is obvious, often we have to make a trade not knowing what role the AFL club has for that player, or what unpublished injury that player has.

All the good info I get from this Forum (which I find hard to keep up with), foretells me what likely may be coming up in the near future, so I mainly focus on that and try to stick to my rules, to complete my team, as soon as possible.

I probably have been like wogtalia/darkie in the past and a little more like Berni now. Would often plan weeks ahead then find the maze is not how I remembered it!

Think we all go by a set of rules, I know woggie outlined someone of these elsewhere, plus FOGI GNR, top players who get injured for one game all targeted and becareful of the 200k downgrade target post early rounds.

Bolton wasn't on my radar a week ago, Dusty still target for round 10. Frederick, RCD likely in between.

 

[Bones]

Planning!! More like wishful thinking.

Seriously though it does give you a sense of the size of the problem even though you know the plan will get derailed early and, unlike @wogitalia, contingency plans are beyond me.
I have noticed that I need to double downgrade this week and will also need to do so again before the byes. This week I'm going Frederick and RCD - @jel and @wogitalia - what rookies are you bringing in this week?

 

[Darkie]

This has been my approach so far as well. Partly by necessity, and partly because things have been so uncertain and it feels like the plans are going to go out the window regularly anyway (they certainly have to date).

I started the year with a fairly strong GnR focus and plan to largely persist with that if I can. In the near term, I’ll probably try to pick up cheapish actual premiums like Zorko rather than very cheap hopeful-premiums in the midfield. By the time I’ve got a couple more of the former, hopefully the rest of my first wave rookies are closer to maxed out, and some of the second wave are getting closer to tradeable levels.

I may change course with the IPL now suspended (that should save significant trade planning time), or I may persist with a broad but flexible plan rather than a specific list of intended trades.

Just to clarify - if I was less time constrained, I would almost certainly take the contingency planning approach. I would be doing that in the full expectation (1) that the specific plans I would come up with would be unlikely to be used - a waste in one sense, but (2) that the planning process would be instructive, and likely lead to better decisions when the curveballs come my way.

When the season was restarted last year, I think it became apparent to me that embedding flexibility was possibly at least as important as planning ... and that flexibility, plus some well-considered basic rules/principles, could be a pretty strong base in a very fluid environment.

 

[Manikato1]

Just to clarify - if I was less time constrained, I would almost certainly take the contingency planning approach. I would be doing that in the full expectation (1) that the specific plans I would come up with would be unlikely to be used - a waste in one sense, but (2) that the planning process would be instructive, and likely lead to better decisions when the curveballs come my way.

When the season was restarted last year, I think it became apparent to me that embedding flexibility was possibly at least as important as planning ... and that flexibility, plus some well-considered basic rules/principles, could be a pretty strong base in a very fluid environment.

For mine planning gives a basic framework of what you would like to do but it rarely comes off. However I agree 100% that the planning process becomes instructive. The trick for me is to not get too focussed on your plan because then you start working on how you can stick to it when maybe you shouldn't be. "I want to trade this player in so how can I work it". Then you miss the other options that might be better which is why reading peoples thoughts on trades and strategy here keeps you open to those other lines of thought.

Right now my plan said start thinking about the byes in terms of balanced bye team, cash and trading in suitable rookies ready for trades in 6 or 7 rounds time. I might get the first, strongly suspect I will not have enough of the second and am torn between fixing problems over rookies.

 

[jel]

Planning!! More like wishful thinking.
View attachment 29582
Seriously though it does give you a sense of the size of the problem even though you know the plan will get derailed early and, unlike @wogitalia, contingency plans are beyond me.
I have noticed that I need to double downgrade this week and will also need to do so again before the byes. This week I'm going Frederick and RCD - @jel and @wogitalia - what rookies are you bringing in this week?

I'm looking at Frederick and Robertson this week.

 

[Bones]

I'm looking at Frederick and Robertson this week.

Robertson is an interesting choice 🤔

 

[randomcliche]

How is everyone's upgrade plan going?

I've sketched a plan on the back of the napkin and think i can get to 20 premos by the end of Rd15, with 8 trades left.

Is this a ballpark figure or should I look at being more aggressive with my trading?

Upgrade plans are going along fine. I have my target list of Premos generally a couple more for each line and as ones fall out, like Dunkley others take their place. Forward line was already a bit short on targets before Dunkley fell off, so bit of flexibility in who ends up in F5/6.

I've had to try really hard to stick to those targets because I feel I've got enough cash generation to get there (yes didn't start a donut, but I now have sharpe and fullerton) which isn't the consensus theme here I realise. For example, this week I'm buying Oliver over Daniel, normally I'm a sucker for value, which helmet clearly is IMO.

At the moment, I need an additional $250-$400k from rookies that I buy after this week to hit full premo, that really mean nailing a downgrade a week for the next few (RCD come on down son next week, hopefully). After Oliver this week, I'll really have to start nailing this value business, Titch I'm looking at you.

I've had a horrible run of buys, Dusty, Hicky, Neale, Gawn this week, and held Danger... so I've burnt a few more trades (Dunkley, Cripps) than I'd like. I've probably only got 2-3 injury trades left before I have to start looking at holding some of the likes of Tex, Daniher, Cumming et al (No Impey).

Current status after trades this week:
4-1-3
6 - 0- Powell, Jordon, 3
2-0-1
2-2-4
Zieb+Dusty - Tex+Joe - 4

5 -8 upgrade to go. Bye planning is little bit week-by-week proposition... just checking each trade makes sense in the context of bye structures, i.e. trying to keep playing rookies around to do their job.

No sure exactly how long it will take to get to full premo yet... I'll get there when I get there.

 

[wogitalia]

Planning!! More like wishful thinking.
View attachment 29582
Seriously though it does give you a sense of the size of the problem even though you know the plan will get derailed early and, unlike @wogitalia, contingency plans are beyond me.
I have noticed that I need to double downgrade this week and will also need to do so again before the byes. This week I'm going Frederick and RCD - @jel and @wogitalia - what rookies are you bringing in this week?

Looking at Murphy and Frederick right now. Murray and Parks also on my radar.

Chapman is out and likely Rowe so I can get Laird onto the field at M7 and push Jordon to M8 and not have to play Campbell/Scott/Berry.

Nothing concrete though. I hate going early so not looking at RCD but he looked great last week.

While discussing may as well outline what I mean by planning...

I've worked out the ball park of what my existing rookies are worth over the next 5 weeks, I use a pretty conservative option and don't factor in a Frederick type who could make quick cash. From that I know that I've got ~500k per upgrade target remaining (note: this includes a couple of sub-optimal members of my side being keepers...) that will leave me with a comfortable amount of trades for the last 8 rounds (good way to attract a disaster!).

So I know my budget, I know my positions and I know my rough timing on cows, obviously a terrible or great score can change these timings (praying for the great scores Mr Scott, Campbell and Berry). I have scoured the positions I need and got a list of the targets, from the big bargains I would love to jump on to the top tier guys I'm probably going to miss out on but basically those are the names I'm looking at with the ability to add. I know that Hall and Martin at ~415k probably get me onto the Oliver/Steele options in the midfield for example.

So with that knowledge, every trade is directed at obtaining those means. For example the swing of Laird to the mids this week is designed to be able to swing him back for Kosi in a couple of weeks when he's, likely, peaked as I don't need a defender upgrade at this time, it also allows me to get Scott/Campbell onto the forward bench to open the DPP link to the mids (because somehow I have no M/F right now in forwards) which again opens up Kosi to what is likely Martin in a couple of weeks but is a flexible path.

To be honest it's more luck than good management that the Laird move is actually what I want but without the planning of knowing what it means it's a harder move to make and it was why I would have done double forward targets last week if I could have (had to get Gawn!).

 

[Bones]

Looking at Murphy and Frederick right now. Murray and Parks also on my radar.

Chapman is out and likely Rowe so I can get Laird onto the field at M7 and push Jordon to M8 and not have to play Campbell/Scott/Berry.

Nothing concrete though. I hate going early so not looking at RCD but he looked great last week.

While discussing may as well outline what I mean by planning...

I've worked out the ball park of what my existing rookies are worth over the next 5 weeks, I use a pretty conservative option and don't factor in a Frederick type who could make quick cash. From that I know that I've got ~500k per upgrade target remaining (note: this includes a couple of sub-optimal members of my side being keepers...) that will leave me with a comfortable amount of trades for the last 8 rounds (good way to attract a disaster!).

So I know my budget, I know my positions and I know my rough timing on cows, obviously a terrible or great score can change these timings (praying for the great scores Mr Scott, Campbell and Berry). I have scoured the positions I need and got a list of the targets, from the big bargains I would love to jump on to the top tier guys I'm probably going to miss out on but basically those are the names I'm looking at with the ability to add. I know that Hall and Martin at ~415k probably get me onto the Oliver/Steele options in the midfield for example.

So with that knowledge, every trade is directed at obtaining those means. For example the swing of Laird to the mids this week is designed to be able to swing him back for Kosi in a couple of weeks when he's, likely, peaked as I don't need a defender upgrade at this time, it also allows me to get Scott/Campbell onto the forward bench to open the DPP link to the mids (because somehow I have no M/F right now in forwards) which again opens up Kosi to what is likely Martin in a couple of weeks but is a flexible path.

To be honest it's more luck than good management that the Laird move is actually what I want but without the planning of knowing what it means it's a harder move to make and it was why I would have done double forward targets last week if I could have (had to get Gawn!).

Thanks Wogi - appreciate the additional detail on the planning - good explanation and I've a bit of homework to do . I will look at the Murphy option again as I don't like going early but my structure is a bit different to your set up - would leave me with two onfield rookies down back.

 

[Spifflicator]

No-one planning for the impact of byes yet?

I am currently 10(4)/11(6)/9(5) premos in (). At the moment I have been considering getting in both Greene, Duncan & Whitfield either before or during the byes as they have the first round 12 bye. However, I am tempted to simply build the warchest and use the 3 round 13 trades to bring all three in.

On the other hand Rowe needs to go now, so maybe he simply turns into Greene and be done with it.

 

[Ex President]

For mine planning gives a basic framework of what you would like to do but it rarely comes off. However I agree 100% that the planning process becomes instructive. The trick for me is to not get too focussed on your plan because then you start working on how you can stick to it when maybe you shouldn't be. "I want to trade this player in so how can I work it". Then you miss the other options that might be better which is why reading peoples thoughts on trades and strategy here keeps you open to those other lines of thought.

Right now my plan said start thinking about the byes in terms of balanced bye team, cash and trading in suitable rookies ready for trades in 6 or 7 rounds time. I might get the first, strongly suspect I will not have enough of the second and am torn between fixing problems over rookies.

This is a good take.

For mine, I don't have specific players that I'm targeting to trade in, but rather what I'm hoping my team will look like come the byes.

I'm hoping to reach the byes with only four rookies on field - Powell and Jordan in mids, Warner in fwds and one of Frederick/Murphy/Highmore on field in defs.

Will need a def and mid upgrade to do this (with Laird going back). Hopefully the def upgrade next week, then get enough cash to get another mid premium in 2-3 weeks time.

This is what my team looks like going into this round (post trades).

 

[Blaze]

Just to clarify - if I was less time constrained, I would almost certainly take the contingency planning approach. I would be doing that in the full expectation (1) that the specific plans I would come up with would be unlikely to be used - a waste in one sense, but (2) that the planning process would be instructive, and likely lead to better decisions when the curveballs come my way.

When the season was restarted last year, I think it became apparent to me that embedding flexibility was possibly at least as important as planning ... and that flexibility, plus some well-considered basic rules/principles, could be a pretty strong base in a very fluid environment.

I like this response a good way to look at it i think.

for me I love planning for the byes...the plans never work but i get to tap away at my spreadsheet like the SC nerd I am dreaming that it all comes off perfectly ha ha! kind of the same reason why i love pre season almost as much as the real deal....

 

[Bones]

I like this response a good way to look at it i think.

for me I love planning for the byes...the plans never work but i get to tap away at my spreadsheet like the SC nerd I am dreaming that it all comes off perfectly ha ha! kind of the same reason why i love pre season almost as much as the real deal....

Love this - and I suspect you have plenty of company on this site. I've enjoyed this thread - seeing the different approaches and personalities coming through. The general consensus seems to be that planning in some make, shape or form, is a good thing to get you mentally prepared for the road ahead even in the knowledge that specific plans will never come off given the number of variables. I like plans that are simple and flexible but have utility - how much cash can I reasonably expect from my rookies and an idea of trade out timing, how many upgrades am I targeting and what mix of 'value' and 'super' premos does that allow. If I have a bit of clarity from this process then I can enjoy this period - if I'm like a headless chook then its no fun.

 

[Manikato1]

Is your team name @Bones related to the Higgs Boson? And if so is each player in your team a fundamental particle?

 

[Herbie66]

After this Round I will have 5 onfield rookies :-

Mansell
Powell , Jordon
Warner , McCreery

Their current value is $ 1,321,400.00

If I allow $ 500k for each upgrade (not enough for mids) , I need to find $ 1,178,600.00

Current Bank = $ 242,800.00

so essentially need $ 935,800.00

The only viable players on my bench to use as downgrades are Berry , McNeil , Flynn & Rowe their current value is $ 915,700.00

Trading them all down to a $ 123,900.00 gives me $ 495,600.00

$ 935,800.00 - $ 495,600.00 = huge problems 😀

Essentially need my 5 onfield players & 4 bench players to all rise another $ 50k minimum each before trading.

Off to the bargain bin I go.

Oh and I need to upgrade Mumford as well.

Plus I have May , Daniel , Cripps & Stringer averaging in the 80's.

Just need to find the value and make every $ count.

It can be done......maybe

 

[Bones]

Is your team name @Bones related to the Higgs Boson? And if so is each player in your team a fundamental particle?

Haha - yes that was the spin