This position is absolutely loaded, I want to pick them all and basically am looking for the reasons to not start guys as this is basically a group of pros and it's basically finding the best cons to o***et them and make decisions!
Macrae - I mean what more to say here... Durable, elite scoring, extreme consistency, rarely available cheaply. There didn't seem to be any real correlation with his scoring and other guys being in or out of the team, I mean he ticks all the boxes.
About the biggest knocks I can put on him is that going 120+ for 5 straight seasons I believe is Gary Ablett and /fin for the list and that's he coming off his highest ever average. That's it, that's all I've got against a guy who so far hasn't graced any of my draft plans
I do think he's probably available cheaper during the season and I do think that the trade boosts are going to make bridging to guys like him a bit more accessible but realistically that second one applies to all the guys on this list.
Steele - I was probably his biggest cheerleader last o***eason, I don't think he did anything to change that position. Probably his biggest selling point was that weird month before the bye where Ratten tried to turn him into Dusty and where, imo, he must have been carrying an injury as spent a lot of time forward, basically what I'm saying is he's underpriced if there was an injury driving that coaching move. If not then it's the coach and that's a chance of happening. Could also be load management and be done again. Either way he averaged 138 over his last 12 rounds and wasn't doing anything unsustainable in that period.
Honestly, his biggest negative is he plays such a physical style which, imo, actually tends to protect players as hardest man wins has always held up for me but does at least expose to some injury chances. That's a pretty soft "biggest negative". Outside that, the team is a question but I think Saints are closer to 2020 version than last year, so that's a positive.
He's the guy I want but keep finding the 30k jump to him means more somewhere else...
Miller - I love him! The single worst part about the Richmond/Eagles game change last year was me not having him in my team to end the season! I mentioned him last year but honestly he went harder than I expected and I might be the only person who mentioned him (I've got him in basically all my keeper leagues so probably watched him as closely as anyone the last 5 years). He's basically Dane Swan with better kicking, I pay that as a huge compliment. Just works into and out of contests like very few ever have. Averaged 132 over his last 12 games last year and I absolutely think that's sustainable and that he has at least one 130+ season in him. Team should improve, especially with Witts back, is another positive.
The biggest negative on him is tags, if the team is more competitive then he would be the only target for them as it stands and he hasn't had to handle that yet, his play style should be difficult to stop but take away some of the spread and he becomes human in his scoring again. The other is the big breakout year aspect of last year but I really see it more as a continuation of 2020 and I'm not personally concerned with that. FWIW my comparison boy of Swan did similar before smashing out 4 straight 120+ seasons.
Oliver - Not a lot to say here. Durable, elite scoring, consistent, captain option. Think he can go higher but wouldn't bank on it just because I think they might manage him a bit more this year. Still, I'm backing 120+.
Biggest con is he did have a few games where taggers got him last year which did make him available cheaper at a few points but realistically I'm clutching at straws to find cons on a guy I love as a player.
Bont - This one is a bit more interesting, he started last year on an all time tier but he finished it very poorly. Averaged just 102 over the last 8 rounds, it definitely felt like CD actually watched a bit closer in that period and scored him tighter but he also flat out fell off in DT so it's not just pure that his ratios flipped.
So realistically you can paint it both ways, he's either underpriced or overpriced depending on the half you take, I tend to lean towards the first half as he's class and has always been a darling, him being scored "fairly" still had strongly positive ratios in most games just not the huge jumps he was getting early season.
The negative is that the inconsistency within season is a very common theme for him, being the 2nd half of a season was a new touch but he's done this before, perhaps his constantly seeking contact approach while also being an outside spread guy adds up and weighs him down for periods, not sure but it's a pretty common theme. Of course if he starts big then you never get a chance assuming he'll be two face in the season but if he starts slow and launches you can get on and look like a hero and then there is always the good chance that he works it out and puts together a 22 game season, in which case 130+ is on the cards as he ticks all the boxes, golden ticket captain, goal kicking, turns every touch into a contested one, generally good skills, strong team.
So yeah, basically I think he's underpriced and worth the punt as a starting pick...
Lyons - I will underrate him. I will ignore him. He will be top 15 at the end of the season. These all seem more like facts than opinions at this point
.
Seriously though, I think he's fairly to slightly overpriced. Given some of the other options that means I will ignore him at my own peril once again.
Mitchell - This one is so hard to judge. Averaged 129 over the last 11 rounds, which shows had bad his first 11 were. Has proven that 129 isn't a fluke and it was a clear move back an inside midfield role for him that drove it and there is the very obvious narrative around the shoulder problems for why it took 11 weeks to get there.
The knock is of course the shoulder problems are now a 2 season issue and he's clearly not the same player when they've held him back. I can't really fault the durability while kind of faulting that.
For me I'm watching his preseason, if he looks completely free then he will rocket up my list. Right now I like Bont, Steele and Miller a bit more in this "somehow I see value picks in the 117+ price group" tier but that could change very quickly. New coach doesn't really phase me, he's really only good at one thing and he's so much better at it than anyone else they have so there isn't a case for messing this up.
Walsh - Unprecedented talent this one... Started him last year, he made my first draft this year. For the third straight year he finished the season better than he started it, aka he's still figuring things out on the fly and adding it to his game. Averaged 126 over his last 9, handled a couple of tags in there, showed that absurd 190+ capability and just ticked all the boxes for another step forward.
Honestly, I don't have a negative here. Probably the best I can do is I'm not sure if he's got 130+ in him just yet and a few of the other names do this year. So yeah, best I can do is I think he's probably only a ~125-128 guy
Laird - Like every position change guy ever he'll get neglected like a red headed step child, like a good amount of them he'll prove us wrong. He's absurdly good. Crows as a side is probably my concern, they overachieved a bit last year on the back of the older guys and I don't like their kids very much, I think they've got a couple of lean years ahead but the Dawson addition for almost nothing is huge and does help that massively. Still I think he's fairly priced, I think he's capable of higher but I like the narrative on others more.
Merrett - I think he's on the high end of his pricing. I love him but CD do not and I don't see how that changes. Did average 122 over his last 9 though so there is that. I think he's a 120 guy but I expect a few more horses to go through the middle this year for the Bombers and he's so good at both inside and outside that he kind of pays the price when that happens. I like him and, honestly, wouldn't be shocked if he put up 125+ but, again, narrative on others is stronger.
Parish - Ran out of steam last year, that can be a positive (underpriced) or a negative (got worked out a bit). I think it's probably somewhere in between and I tend to land on basically fairly priced as such. Similar to Merrett, I expect a bit more midfield rotation this year with guys like Heppell, Caldwell, Shiel, Stringer and even perhaps Hind/Redman/Snelling types to be added, basically I like the Bombers and see a bigger pie but the slices to be smaller for Parish/Merrett in particular.
Guthrie - Just not as sexy as the other picks and, honestly, I just think he's a better fantasy player than actual player at this point and he feels kind of maxed out in this range. I like him but I don't really see what he can add to his game to become a 125 guy and given how many of the names above I think are capable or have proven they're capable of that, he's hard to select. To be fair I would have laughed at anyone saying he'd become a solid 110+ guy 2 years ago, so who bloody knows!
