Position 2022: Defender Discussion

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Short has the lowest risk upside of any defender. In isolation he is a fantastic pick. In the context of where I want my team to be (ultimate premo) he’s borderline selectable.

Personally, I’ve got Seagull, Hall, Whitfield, Ridley, and Stewart (not starting) all with demonstrably higher ceilings. I’m not sure I want to take the Whitfield injury risk on board. Short is in the same bracket as Dawson and Maynard of role change upside for me. 160 preseason scores notwithstanding, thanks Santoz!

Thanks to everyone for their comments below.





And @conniosseur
Maynard?
I must have missed that one. I know a couple of years ago he was rumoured to be in the mids but I haven't seen it this year.
 
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A concern I have with Sicily. Since Hawthorn have an abundant number of rebounding defenders, have they got enough good Forwards? :unsure:
If Hawthorn need some help in the Forward line, then Sicily looks like the obvious choice?
I don't know why but the forward thing isn't concerning me nearly as much as the Scrimshaw, Jiath, Impey, Day and Bramble additions on top of Hardwick's progression to genuinely good rebounding defender in the last 18 months while Sicily has been out.

I can't help but see a very similar outcome to last year with Ridley after Hind, Redman and Heppell all started eating into the core roles. Sicily took a very high % of kick-ins in his top year, lose even 3 or 4 a game and you've lost a solid 5 points. DGB and Jiath stealing a few intercepts would be another 5 and very quickly you're looking at a low 90s guy instead of a 105 guy.

He just still kind of feels like a trap even if the value is sensational if he works out.

Ultimately I think he's going to be so popular that not picking him is a bad option as the reward for getting it right is probably 1.5 trades and the reward for getting it wrong is a genuine premium defender at 120k discount and the saved trades of that pick that you don't have.

Really tough pricing point given some of the forwards at similar prices and their upside as well and it's really hard to go heavy at 450k and not get a few wrong.


Maynard is that hard one. If they're genuinely playing Daicos and Pendles in defense then someone actually has to be there to play defense and Maynard is on a completely different tier to all their other mid/small guys as an actual defender. None of the rest of them are actually very good defensively so I kind of feel they need him.

That said he could score very well as a midfielder so it's hard to pick.

Another who to me has little reward in "nailing it" that you can't get by grabbing him a month in after you know the answer. Feels like there's too many outcomes that are bad for that low chance of a super pick.
 
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Lloyd had an interrupted preseason last year, averaged 110 over the last 11 games when Dawson shifted up the ground to a genuine attacking wing role.

He's averaged 109, 112, 122 and 108 over the last 4 seasons, he's been super durable and super consistent. He definitely could drop off but he's got to drop off probably 10+ points to not be a keeper and it's hard to argue he doesn't have a case for scoring higher either.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised by 104 or 115 but I'd place my bets inside that range if you put the gun to my head, which given a fair bit of uncertainty across the other spots is a really nice thing to be able to back.

Losing Dawson takes away one of our few penetrating kicks so I can see a bit slower ball movement. It's also worth noting that Sydney's season couldn't have been much more difficult last year with basically being on the road for the entire thing so realistically his efforts were outstanding given that.

Also not sold on Sydney backing up this year. Mills struggling to be fit for round one, who was our best player last year, losing Dawson, Hickey had a freakish year that's hard to see him backing up, Kennedy is another year older. I'm not expecting to fall off a cliff but when you lose the best winger in the league and your best midfielder is at best limping to round 1 I don't think it's a strong cause for optimism that the team will be surprisingly strong. I want to be wrong but last year was a bit of a shock and teams that do that often struggle to back it up, especially when it's on the back of a pretty golden injury run.
Would you assume Dawson has the same attacking wing role at the Crows. Currently my D2.
 
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I don't know why but the forward thing isn't concerning me nearly as much as the Scrimshaw, Jiath, Impey, Day and Bramble additions on top of Hardwick's progression to genuinely good rebounding defender in the last 18 months while Sicily has been out.

I can't help but see a very similar outcome to last year with Ridley after Hind, Redman and Heppell all started eating into the core roles. Sicily took a very high % of kick-ins in his top year, lose even 3 or 4 a game and you've lost a solid 5 points. DGB and Jiath stealing a few intercepts would be another 5 and very quickly you're looking at a low 90s guy instead of a 105 guy.

He just still kind of feels like a trap even if the value is sensational if he works out.

Ultimately I think he's going to be so popular that not picking him is a bad option as the reward for getting it right is probably 1.5 trades and the reward for getting it wrong is a genuine premium defender at 120k discount and the saved trades of that pick that you don't have.

Really tough pricing point given some of the forwards at similar prices and their upside as well and it's really hard to go heavy at 450k and not get a few wrong.




Maynard is that hard one. If they're genuinely playing Daicos and Pendles in defense then someone actually has to be there to play defense and Maynard is on a completely different tier to all their other mid/small guys as an actual defender. None of the rest of them are actually very good defensively so I kind of feel they need him.

That said he could score very well as a midfielder so it's hard to pick.

Another who to me has little reward in "nailing it" that you can't get by grabbing him a month in after you know the answer. Feels like there's too many outcomes that are bad for that low chance of a super pick.
Thanks, interesting dynamics there...if Pendles and Daicos are playing back the someone's gotta CBA...wish it was him! But not reliably so. :(
 
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Would you assume Dawson has the same attacking wing role at the Crows. Currently my D2.
Seems they want him in the midfield mix, think it's a potentially massive role for him, there's nothing about him that should preclude him being a Pendles/Bont type through the middle BUT it's utterly unproven as a role at this level and he could fail at it.

I don't think that role will be as strong for Adelaide as it was for Sydney if he does end up with it, we move it slow and deliberately relying heavily on midfielders to be our CHF type target, Adelaide have a lot of guys who go long and hard with it.

Will be watching him very closely in the preseason, inside mid and doing it how I expect he will would be a 110+ role.

He's never been a physical guy so that's my area of worry, having said that he's a guy who wins his one on one contests and I wouldn't call him soft, just hasn't played roles to really test his harder edge, he tackled well for us when required but it's always interesting when a guy goes from a very outside role to an inside role and whether it's great or bad for them.


Thanks, interesting dynamics there...if Pendles and Daicos are playing back the someone's gotta CBA...wish it was him! But not reliably so. :(
It's definitely a question. The majority though probably go to Lipinski and Adams who are obviously new and basically absent last year. Throw in the older Daicos, Sidebottom, Pendles/Daicos (both expected to get some mid minutes still), De Goey and Crisp and I think you've probably got the main names alongside Maynard as an option. It's actually a pretty damn good mix if they can stay healthy.
 
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Gee that is interesting. Tough to back in a breakout at that price but if he gets a portion Cerra's role :unsure:

Cerra only averaged 90 however which a DEF keeper does not make.
Cerra only had 46% of CBA , so I wonder if Young gets more than that and Fyfe & Barra drop off.

Maybe this is the year for Blakely.

Does someone like Tucker play more inside ?
 
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Cerra only had 46% of CBA , so I wonder if Young gets more than that and Fyfe & Barra drop off.

Maybe this is the year for Blakely.

Does someone like Tucker play more inside ?
Brayshaw only on 61%. Tucker is usually inside. They tried to get rid of Blakely so I think he's just in a Florida retirement home waiting for his time to finish.
Unless they're a star I'm not sure mid is much better than half back nowadays.
 
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