Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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All those players left for more mid minutes or a bigger role, and of course Hewett has done the same. More mid minutes doesn't necessarily mean a player is suddenly going to become a premium scorer, though.
Hewett was attending 75%-90% of Sydney's CBAs in 2019 (I can't find the full season stats; these are from individual games that I found). He averaged 88 that year. He probably needs to be averaging 95+ to be a worthwhile pick in 2022 and I'm not sure he has that improvement in him.
If it's Essendon vs. Carlton and Merrett is sitting on 20 disposals at half time, I'm betting Hewett gets the tagging job in the 2nd half. He's one of the best defensive mids in the game and I don't see why Carlton wouldn't want to use his ability in that area when they already have 3 great offensive mids in Cerra, Cripps and Walsh. A defensive mid that can play the role Curnow used to play and do a shutdown job if needed compliments them well.
Hewett was attending 75%-90% of Sydney's CBAs in 2019 (I can't find the full season stats; these are from individual games that I found). He averaged 88 that year. He probably needs to be averaging 95+ to be a worthwhile pick in 2022 and I'm not sure he has that improvement in him.
If it's Essendon vs. Carlton and Merrett is sitting on 20 disposals at half time, I'm betting Hewett gets the tagging job in the 2nd half. He's one of the best defensive mids in the game and I don't see why Carlton wouldn't want to use his ability in that area when they already have 3 great offensive mids in Cerra, Cripps and Walsh. A defensive mid that can play the role Curnow used to play and do a shutdown job if needed compliments them well.
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2019 was firmly as a defensive midfielder though.
Curnow is probably a really good example for him, when he tagged he was a 90 type, when he roamed he was 105 type. I think Hewett is classier than Curnow, though not as quick or as strong a runner.
They might use him defensively occasionally but that's different to always which he was at Sydney and he's still scored decently doing that.
I think if anything the numbers at Sydney show how good he could be given how well he did score in less than ideal midfield roles and he's shown very good scoring when off the leash.
Port very rarely tagged with him as their midfield coach.
It's an awfully long time ago but I think he did like to tag a bit at Brisbane. Claye Beams I think did a few jobs, I seem to recall Redden would do some work occasionally also and pretty sure Raines went up there towards the end of Voss' stint and did do some pretty strong tags. This was a period where basically every side had a tagger and it was kind of just expected so hard to really translate to now though but I'd say there's evidence he's not opposed to them.
Would be great if Curnow was in the side as an option to tag with Hewett as that would mean they could tag if wanted and not have to use Hewett.
End of the day, he needs to average 95+ to be that D6 keeper level barring the ass falling out of the defenders this year, and I think he's definitely capable of it with scope to go higher but he definitely could be in the mid 80s also.
I'd be surprised if he lost value though and didn't outscore his average though so he's in that average to great outcomes range without the terrible outcome (injury aside).
I always feel I'm talking myself into him here
Curnow is probably a really good example for him, when he tagged he was a 90 type, when he roamed he was 105 type. I think Hewett is classier than Curnow, though not as quick or as strong a runner.
They might use him defensively occasionally but that's different to always which he was at Sydney and he's still scored decently doing that.
I think if anything the numbers at Sydney show how good he could be given how well he did score in less than ideal midfield roles and he's shown very good scoring when off the leash.
Port very rarely tagged with him as their midfield coach.
It's an awfully long time ago but I think he did like to tag a bit at Brisbane. Claye Beams I think did a few jobs, I seem to recall Redden would do some work occasionally also and pretty sure Raines went up there towards the end of Voss' stint and did do some pretty strong tags. This was a period where basically every side had a tagger and it was kind of just expected so hard to really translate to now though but I'd say there's evidence he's not opposed to them.
Would be great if Curnow was in the side as an option to tag with Hewett as that would mean they could tag if wanted and not have to use Hewett.
End of the day, he needs to average 95+ to be that D6 keeper level barring the ass falling out of the defenders this year, and I think he's definitely capable of it with scope to go higher but he definitely could be in the mid 80s also.
I'd be surprised if he lost value though and didn't outscore his average though so he's in that average to great outcomes range without the terrible outcome (injury aside).
I always feel I'm talking myself into him here
If i’m spending 350k+ on a player, I want to be confident they will be a Top 6 contender.
Hewett is contending with Lloyd, Whitfield, Stewart, Ridley, Short, Hall, Crisp, Rich, Ryan, Sicily, Ziebell etc. for Top 6. Plus all the unknowns like Pendles that get DPP defender status later on.
That’s more than 10 guys that could easily remain a clear tier above Hewett.
It’s not a gamble I’m willing to take personally.
Hewett is contending with Lloyd, Whitfield, Stewart, Ridley, Short, Hall, Crisp, Rich, Ryan, Sicily, Ziebell etc. for Top 6. Plus all the unknowns like Pendles that get DPP defender status later on.
That’s more than 10 guys that could easily remain a clear tier above Hewett.
It’s not a gamble I’m willing to take personally.
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I can certainly see value in Hewett. There's definitely a world where we don't quite have the depth of defensive rookies, nor the spare cash for four-five deep above $450k and need someone like him to square things off. If he compliments the other 29 blokes you've chosen structure-wise he could certainly be a decent and reliable way to bring in someone like Hall or the fancy new DPP early on - even if he only goes up 50-100k. Those extra trades won't use themselves!
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J Crisp with Howe & Moore: 91.71 from 21 (5/21 below 80, 13/21 below 100, 2/21 120+)
2019: 88.58 from 12 (4/12 below 80, 9/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
2020: 99.75 from 4 (1/4 below 80)
2021: 92.8 from 5 (4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
J Crisp & no Howe: 103.63 from 30 (3/30 below 80, 14/30 below 100, 7/30 120+)
2019: 106.67 from 3 (2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
2020: 99.08 from 13 (2/13 below 80, 8/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
2021: 107.21 from 14 (1/14 below 80, 4/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
J Crisp & no Moore: 99.41 from 17 (3/17 below 80, 10/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)
2019: 81.86 from 7 (3/7 below 80, 7/7 below 100)
2020: 109 from 1
2021: 112 from 9 (3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
2019: 88.58 from 12 (4/12 below 80, 9/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
2020: 99.75 from 4 (1/4 below 80)
2021: 92.8 from 5 (4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
J Crisp & no Howe: 103.63 from 30 (3/30 below 80, 14/30 below 100, 7/30 120+)
2019: 106.67 from 3 (2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
2020: 99.08 from 13 (2/13 below 80, 8/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
2021: 107.21 from 14 (1/14 below 80, 4/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
J Crisp & no Moore: 99.41 from 17 (3/17 below 80, 10/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)
2019: 81.86 from 7 (3/7 below 80, 7/7 below 100)
2020: 109 from 1
2021: 112 from 9 (3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
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I currently have Hewett and to be honest, I'd rather pay up for someone else, but as it stands with the rookies I can't find a away around it. He went 96 post bye essentially so I've pegged him at around that average.
Kemps got a soft tissue complaint leading into R1 and Dean has just gone in for scans, potentially we've lost another two there. O'Driscoll sounds more unlikely than likely based on the intel on the traders podcast.
That leaves Hinge, Sinn and McCartin... and no one bar Coleman in the 200-390 range has any appeal to me. This isn't even considering the dire mid/fwd bench situation. Another 2 weeks to go so planning for a disaster, but hopefully like other years we get a few surprises.
Kemps got a soft tissue complaint leading into R1 and Dean has just gone in for scans, potentially we've lost another two there. O'Driscoll sounds more unlikely than likely based on the intel on the traders podcast.
That leaves Hinge, Sinn and McCartin... and no one bar Coleman in the 200-390 range has any appeal to me. This isn't even considering the dire mid/fwd bench situation. Another 2 weeks to go so planning for a disaster, but hopefully like other years we get a few surprises.
Assuming the premium level remains around 105, which seems likely as there aren't any real Mills/Laird type candidates this year with huge midfield roles, Hewett really only needs to play 22 and average ~96 at his price and you've got a viable D6.
I think the biggest error people make with value picks is thinking they need to average 105 when the D6 is 105 ignoring that they've got an extra ~10ppg from the value and thus setting an unrealistic need for the pick to work.
The whole point of that value D6 pick is you've got a couple of extra trades freed up to topline your other defenders/forwards/mids.
The negative of that play is it does shut the door on value plays during the season which are often more reliable and can be picked with more information.
Swings and roundabouts
I think the biggest error people make with value picks is thinking they need to average 105 when the D6 is 105 ignoring that they've got an extra ~10ppg from the value and thus setting an unrealistic need for the pick to work.
The whole point of that value D6 pick is you've got a couple of extra trades freed up to topline your other defenders/forwards/mids.
The negative of that play is it does shut the door on value plays during the season which are often more reliable and can be picked with more information.
Swings and roundabouts
I don't think Hewett is a win even at a 95 average.
IMO,
Players that will average 105+ : Stewart, Lloyd, Whitfield, Crisp, Rocj
Players in the 100 - 105 range: Short, Ridley, Heppell, Dawson, Hall, Dale
So let's just saying Hewett averages 95 - which is almost 10% higher than his best average season, and 22% higher than all his seasons but one, you're looking at the BARE MINIMUM, a 22 x 5 = 110 points loss for your D6.
The expected/likely loss is probably close to 200 points, if not over 200 points.
And any cash gained wouldn't be actionable, as you would've only gained like 70 - 80k.
Seems like a very, very low % play with Hewett, hard pass for me.
IMO,
Players that will average 105+ : Stewart, Lloyd, Whitfield, Crisp, Rocj
Players in the 100 - 105 range: Short, Ridley, Heppell, Dawson, Hall, Dale
So let's just saying Hewett averages 95 - which is almost 10% higher than his best average season, and 22% higher than all his seasons but one, you're looking at the BARE MINIMUM, a 22 x 5 = 110 points loss for your D6.
The expected/likely loss is probably close to 200 points, if not over 200 points.
And any cash gained wouldn't be actionable, as you would've only gained like 70 - 80k.
Seems like a very, very low % play with Hewett, hard pass for me.