Position 2022: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Just throwing around a few late options.
Justin McInerney. 411k, D/M
4th season, lightning quick and an endurance machine.
Played a ripper game against North on Sunday picking up 30 possessions and scoring 127 SC points.
Has he had a change of role and could he be an alternative to Sicily or Hewitt ?
Not sure if he has been discussed, open to opinions.
Justin McInerney. 411k, D/M
4th season, lightning quick and an endurance machine.
Played a ripper game against North on Sunday picking up 30 possessions and scoring 127 SC points.
Has he had a change of role and could he be an alternative to Sicily or Hewitt ?
Not sure if he has been discussed, open to opinions.
Role the same as he closed last year, he average 83 over the last 9 (excluding the final) which I think is probably about the expectation, bit of upside with Dawson gone as the primary winger and some natural improvement and he can probably push towards 90+.
Would expect him to still have those bad ~50 type games, he had 5 of them in the last 12 games last year, if he could get them to 70 range it would be huge for his scoring profile.
Ultimately think there is more against than for with him, really needs to be a keeper at that price, shares a bye with Lloyd, Dawson, Stewart, Dale and Daniel who could all be top 8 defenders that you want/need.
He's looking a good player though.
Would expect him to still have those bad ~50 type games, he had 5 of them in the last 12 games last year, if he could get them to 70 range it would be huge for his scoring profile.
Ultimately think there is more against than for with him, really needs to be a keeper at that price, shares a bye with Lloyd, Dawson, Stewart, Dale and Daniel who could all be top 8 defenders that you want/need.
He's looking a good player though.
Not interested in classic. He's got value and should score well but he invents ways to get injured on a weekly basis, has horrible tackling and ball winning technique that leaves him totally exposed. He's probably not dissimilar to Jiath last year in that the role really suits him and he should score well and unlike Jiath he has elite kicking skills that can help rather than hinder the scores but the injury risk is strong and I still think he'll be pretty inconsistent. The 150k he'd really need to make is a big target. If he was 70k cheaper I'd be looking at him long and hard though fwiw.
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cheers mate, looked like a man possessed, im half foot in half foot out because of his awkward price
Remember reading a Rowsus article a few seasons back about how the top 6 defenders each year have the most change from previous than any other line, many started under $500k, i think - the games changed since then though and midfield roles may have been involved
I thought his 28d might have been an indication of that + 10d on his end of year run where he avg around 18d and 75-ish (dont quote me) with Hewett and Dawson gone.
He will probs get the kung-flu ya reckon hahaha 🤘
I think with value elsewhere might be easier to get on an unders rather than breakout
Remember reading a Rowsus article a few seasons back about how the top 6 defenders each year have the most change from previous than any other line, many started under $500k, i think - the games changed since then though and midfield roles may have been involved
I thought his 28d might have been an indication of that + 10d on his end of year run where he avg around 18d and 75-ish (dont quote me) with Hewett and Dawson gone.
He will probs get the kung-flu ya reckon hahaha 🤘
I think with value elsewhere might be easier to get on an unders rather than breakout
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I‘m on board. His scoring has jumped with that move to HBF - it’s probably a role that is a bit too easy for him IMO, especially as you say he’s probably nearing his best years.
I see @wogitalia has injury concerns - have to hope that doesn’t come to pass. I always seem to get more than my share☹️☹️
Apart from that my concern would be that they might shift him back to fill holes in the fwd line.
I see @wogitalia has injury concerns - have to hope that doesn’t come to pass. I always seem to get more than my share☹️☹️
Apart from that my concern would be that they might shift him back to fill holes in the fwd line.
So what do we think about Daniel Rich?
107 average at 22 games last year. Rich took about 60% of kick outs last year, Birchall took about 30%. Birchall is now gone, even if Rich takes 10% of the 30% available (very conservative imo), that's about 1 additional kick-in a game, bringing him to 110+.
There's also the factor that Birchall used to deliver the ball to Rich from kick-ins, but ultimately think the upside is there.
107 average at 22 games last year. Rich took about 60% of kick outs last year, Birchall took about 30%. Birchall is now gone, even if Rich takes 10% of the 30% available (very conservative imo), that's about 1 additional kick-in a game, bringing him to 110+.
There's also the factor that Birchall used to deliver the ball to Rich from kick-ins, but ultimately think the upside is there.
Think he's being sadly rejected as an option this year but it's a very crowded field. Lloyd has the history and durability advantage, Crisp has a higher upside role and durability. Stewart perhaps has an even cleaner 110+ narrative and a unicorn game deflating the price slightly and then down a rung is a bunch more guys capable of that 105-110 window that are cheaper.
So while I think he's got the potential to be a great pick there's definitely valid reasons that others are going ahead of him.
There's also the heavier counter argument that last year was a nearly 20 point jump on the previous season and that he's 19 points better than his next best season which is his only other season at a keeper level and that you could make the case that last year was already the freak outlier rather than the new trendline. FWIW I tend to believe the new trendline more, Hodge retirement and Starce emerging as the genuine lockdown guy I think opened the doorway over the last two years (injury kind of hurt his 2020 as well).
Ultimately though I think he's probably got the weakest starting case of the group with more downside risks and a more limited upside.
So while I think he's got the potential to be a great pick there's definitely valid reasons that others are going ahead of him.
There's also the heavier counter argument that last year was a nearly 20 point jump on the previous season and that he's 19 points better than his next best season which is his only other season at a keeper level and that you could make the case that last year was already the freak outlier rather than the new trendline. FWIW I tend to believe the new trendline more, Hodge retirement and Starce emerging as the genuine lockdown guy I think opened the doorway over the last two years (injury kind of hurt his 2020 as well).
Ultimately though I think he's probably got the weakest starting case of the group with more downside risks and a more limited upside.
It's the Crisp, Rich and Ridley trio that I'm currently debating, and at the moment I have Crisp 3rd. I have posted somewhere before, but Crisp actually had a lower average when his CBA exceeded 40% last year (can't recall the exact figures). Durability Crisp is ahead, but it's not like the other 2 are injury prone.
Lloyd, Stewart I already have.
It's strange because I was so hot on the Crisp selection at the start of the preseason, and as I watch more and more preseason games, I keep arriving at the conclusion that Crisp is more fantasy relevant as a defender. With Daicos/Pendles taking up probably 25 uncontested possessions each on the defensive end of the centre bounce/off half-back, I think Crisp's rebounding role will become more limited too.
In fact I'd probably argue that Crisp actually has some downside in his scoring with the introduction of Daicos + Pendles off half-back. The biggest selling point of Crisp for me is still his durability.
Lloyd, Stewart I already have.
It's strange because I was so hot on the Crisp selection at the start of the preseason, and as I watch more and more preseason games, I keep arriving at the conclusion that Crisp is more fantasy relevant as a defender. With Daicos/Pendles taking up probably 25 uncontested possessions each on the defensive end of the centre bounce/off half-back, I think Crisp's rebounding role will become more limited too.
In fact I'd probably argue that Crisp actually has some downside in his scoring with the introduction of Daicos + Pendles off half-back. The biggest selling point of Crisp for me is still his durability.
On the flipside, the removal of Pendles from the midfield increases his responsibility in the clearances where the most points are available. Flipside Lipinski and maybe a fit Adams do counteract that still.
Ultimately a midfield role always has upside potential as the good mids score in the 110 range. Albeit Crisp is a weird cat who does buck that trend historically with better scoring off HB.
End of the day, 22 games is a really good starting point if he can pull it off!
Ultimately a midfield role always has upside potential as the good mids score in the 110 range. Albeit Crisp is a weird cat who does buck that trend historically with better scoring off HB.
End of the day, 22 games is a really good starting point if he can pull it off!
I have interest in Chapman as it really suits my structure to have a defender in that range. Freo/Longmuir style seems to suit a player like him and i like watching him play. I think picking a guy like him needs a fairly low risk profile in other areas (which i have) and also Kiddy is likely a good bail out option if it doesn't work
Bowey not so much for me as i think he gets swallowed up with all the players they have to come back.
Bowey not so much for me as i think he gets swallowed up with all the players they have to come back.