Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Santoz]

He was a risky selection, and there was nothing wrong with that, but when you take a risk you need to be prepared to fix it if it looks like backfiring, and this one looks like backfiring.
SC Gold have his B/E at 122, and expect him to score 79, causing him to drop another $21.9k in price.
RAMP says his B/E is 141, and expects him to score 81, causing him to drop another $26.5k in price.
I think the risk it too great to coninue with him, as if he bombs out another sub 50 score he becomes hard to deal with. If you don't have the cash to upgrade him, I'd consider going down to Jackson Merrett. I know you've missed the first price rise, but he look ok, and he's currently a bit over $100k cheaper than Walters. If you wait a week, it potentially becomes a straight swap!
Good luck

Cheers.

What about a double trade by shifting Rohan & Walters for Ambrose & Cyril Rioli?

 

[Nk29]

Is that a problem? Is he getting enough touches around the ground to get high enough scores? Marks and tackles too? Al la Cox?

No he's definitely doing a lot around the ground, but his consistency could be a worry without a high hitout count. But at his price he is definitely a good pick .

 

[bloke]

No he's definitely doing a lot around the ground, but his consistency could be a worry without a high hitout count. But at his price he is definitely a good pick .

Cheers NK. Thinking he'll be a lot safer (believe it or not) than Luey. Even with the odd 50 he can still increase on price. Berger on the other hand.....

 

[Rowsus]

Cheers.

What about a double trade by shifting Rohan & Walters for Ambrose & Cyril Rioli?

I'm not keen on the Ambrose side of that equation. There has to be some doubt how much we will see of him in the short term. Obviously it revolves around him getting selected this week, but even then I'm worried about his JS.

 

[Rowsus]

Not just good at statistics, good at tossing as well!

Good at tossing? I will have you know, that some of my friends think I am one of the greatest tossers they know!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Just wondering what is the most that Jarrad Mcveigh can score this week to drop to $520,400 or lower?

Hi MrM,
SC Gold have his B/E at 118, so according to them he will fall to $520.4k or lower if he scores 79 or lower.
By my reckoning his B/E is 141, so he will fall below your required price if scores 102 or lower.

 

[BigL753]

I have a feeling there will be questions on Matthew Jaensch v Matt Suckling this week.

Don't do any analysis on this (unless if others request it), but Jaensch's 2014 has been interesting.

Very interested in this as well.

 

[Rowsus]

Oh wise one enlighten us as to who we start and who we bench out of Duncan and Ellis next week! I know i keep getting it wrong!

Interesting question.
If you mean Duncan, then hands down it's Duncan. He shouldn't be in your team if you are going to bench him, especially after scoring 142 against Collingwood last round.
If you mean Dunstan, then I'd still start him over Ellis. Not so much for his 143 against WC last week, but more for the opposition they each face this week.

 

[Rowsus]

I have a feeling there will be questions on Matthew Jaensch v Matt Suckling this week.

Don't do any analysis on this (unless if others request it), but Jaensch's 2014 has been interesting.

Very interested in this as well.

Is this analysis with an eye of swapping Suckling to Jaensch?
If so it comes down to the simple question, do you believe Jaensch can hold down D6, and Suckling can't? If the answer is yes, then swap now, before Jaensch's price rises more. If the answer is no, then it is a crazy trade.
I see nothing in Jaensch's history that would indicate a break out was imminent, but sometimes they are well hidden. I prefer to think, given his history it is just a hot streak, that is likely to continue this week against St Kilda. I don't think he's worth the trade in swapping from Suckling, but if you believe he has arrived, and is genuine D6 material, then I strongly suggest you get him in this week.

 

[BigL753]

Is this analysis with an eye of swapping Suckling to Jaensch?
If so it comes down to the simple question, do you believe Jaensch can hold down D6, and Suckling can't? If the answer is yes, then swap now, before Jaensch's price rises more. If the answer is no, then it is a crazy trade.
I see nothing in Jaensch's history that would indicate a break out was imminent, but sometimes they are well hidden. I prefer to think, given his history it is just a hot streak, that is likely to continue this week against St Kilda. I don't think he's worth the trade in swapping from Suckling, but if you believe he has arrived, and is genuine D6 material, then I strongly suggest you get him in this week.

Thanks Rowsus, I feel all Suckling will ave. is 70-80 at best. He had one good game where the Hawks dominated but doubt his ability to continue that. Looking through Jaensch's history I agree with you that I don't see anything to indicate a break out either but he has been scoring very well and also very consistently.

 

[Babylove]

On thing that could be helping Jaensch's scores is opportunity. With departures from last season (I'm sure someone left from their backline because they were talking about Henderson filling that role initially) plus injuries to key players (Henderson, Shaw, Otten, Van Berlo etc) is creating opportunity for the likes of Smith and Jaensch to play roles they may not have had the opportunity to previously. Jaensch particularly is taking his opportunities so far. I guess if the Crows get some of these guys back, how does that effect Jaensch's role and scores? Personally I have Guthrie in D4 and I think that Jaensch will definitely earn better cash, has more potential as a D6 keeper than Guthrie, who hasn't been bad but as a tagger is playing a lockdown role that isn't great for SC scores.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I have Chris Mayne as a POD fwd (why is everyone laughing?).

Yes he was injured this round, if he plays (or even if he doesn't) should I to quote another thread "Stick Fat" or bite the bullet before he sucks any trade value away.

This week if I spend all my glory box I can trade to Roughy (or any other fwd up to Roughy's price).

Your opinion and others are welcome, don't hesitate to look at my team also although I expect you may have already as we played each other in Div 1 this week.

I think given your structure you need to try an upgrade him to a Keeper.
I'd be looking at Roughead, Rioli or Wingard.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

A couple of players we both have I would like to get your opinion on:
Tom Mitchell and Josh Caddy

Caddy hasnt really done anything but I would think its best to hold on to him for now?
I thought Mitchell was doing ok but the fact he has been subbed, do you think that will be a regular thing?

Also Cunnington got the job done with 120 on the weekend but im a bit worried that even without Ziebell he still only play 74% TOG.

Hey Mike,
Like myself, and probably many Coaches, you probably tossed up between Parker, Buddy and T Mitchell. You and I came down on Mitchell, and I for one am regretting I didn't go Parker. Still, it's early days, and unless something happens, I will ride Mitchell out a bit further.
Caddy looked so good in the preseason, and in round 1, but has disappointed in the next 2 games. Do we give up, and jump on Jackson Merrett instead? Tough call, but I will stick fat. I'm not confident Merrett will hold down F6, and there is little point in shifting to him, if you only have to trade him out again. Caddy will likely see another week or two in my team, and I will reassess from there.
Cunnington obviously has a base fitness problem. He seems to be a 74-75% TOG player nearly his whole career. I was hoping he might push into low 80's this season, and he still might. Stick with him. Hopefully his scores will improve as both North's and Goldy's form gets better.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Could you please do an analysis on Tom Liberatore. He started slow and hit his straps last week and he has an awesome draw coming up.

Thanks in Advance.

Hi _Slip_,
I did a preseason analysis on Libba (and about 59 other player, with Klo30's help) in:

Can Statistics Find The Next Breakout Player

Here's that post.

I much prefer 4 or 5 seasons to analyse than 3, but we can only deal with what we have.
Libba's figures look fantastic. It's nearly all dark blue, and the areas that aren't are very close to it! When I wrote 2014 Chasing Lasts Years Points, I said at the time I thought if any of the five could buck the trend, it would be Libba. (Or did I say Libba was more likely the Steven ). He is very, very close to the ideal breakout mould for this thread. Not only is he making nice progression, he has room for improvement, in most areas. His SC average jumped more than 20 last season, and landed over 102, putting it into that historically very hard to repeat area. His TOG has progressed, but probably maxed out now. His pts/100%TOG is just below the 130+ area you'd like, so he doesn't need to make much of a step there. His goals can, and I predict will, improve. The Club is reporting his aerobic capacity has improved, and they are hoping/expecting he can push to more Forward contests in 2014. Even if that bumps his goals from 3 to 10, there's 3 points/game improvement right there. Even though his CP's have improved each year, it would be a brave Coach to assume they will continue to improve. He had the 3rd best CP/game in the AFL, with only JPK and Gaz beating him. It would be safer to assume it might drop just a little, but given his style of play, not too much! His Tackles and Handballs are near as damnit on an all up trend, and his kicks and dis/100%TOG are trending up, and all 4 of those can improve. His kick to handball could be better, but his SC to DT is good enough. He has to overcome the extra attention he will no doubt draw in 2014, but his style of play can be difficult to curtail. I think he is a chance to break the 2014 Chasing Lasts Years Points curse. He had a 5 round spell from rounds 5 to 9 last season that only returned 375 points. If he can find the consistency to turn that 375 "bad patch" into say a 485 point bad patch, there is another 5/game he picks up. I will add one rider/proviso, is his fate linked to Minsons form? And if it is, can Minson go as well as last year? My answer to those questions are: I don't know, maybe not. And, no I don't think big Willy can quite repeat his 2013 heroics.

 

[blue dreamer]

I think given your structure you need to try an upgrade him to a Keeper.
I'd be looking at Roughead, Rioli or Wingard.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus, probably Roughy or Wingard it is, not sure of Cyril staying on the park and forward rookies while preventing a donut don't really help PIT as they are scoring such low scores ATM.

Looks like another trade gone this week.

Must take a trading holiday soon to stop the back half of the season from being a lost cause.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Mike,
Like myself, and probably many Coaches, you probably tossed up between Parker, Buddy and T Mitchell. You and I came down on Mitchell, and I for one am regretting I didn't go Parker. Still, it's early days, and unless something happens, I will ride Mitchell out a bit further.
Caddy looked so good in the preseason, and in round 1, but has disappointed in the next 2 games. Do we give up, and jump on Jackson Merrett instead? Tough call, but I will stick fat. I'm not confident Merrett will hold down F6, and there is little point in shifting to him, if you only have to trade him out again. Caddy will likely see another week or two in my team, and I will reassess from there.
Cunnington obviously has a base fitness problem. He seems to be a 74-75% TOG player nearly his whole career. I was hoping he might push into low 80's this season, and he still might. Stick with him. Hopefully his scores will improve as both North's and Goldy's form gets better.
Good luck

Thanks mate. I took a bit of a chance in the forward line with a few mid pricers i thought would finish top 10 forwards or close to it. Have Danger as my super prem then went Zorko, Mitchell and Parker as the ones i thought would finish up the top and then also Dahlhaus as a speculative. He was going nicely until last week.

I dont think Merrett can keep these scores up. Id say Caddy has more of a chance of being a keeper. My options i was tossing up were either upgrade now to a Dusty / Wingard etc or downgrade to a Taylor and get some cash. Maybe give him to his bye round to see if he can lift his game.

Also now that it looks like Michie is out for a month, would you suggest trading him? If so, would you say to someone like Macrae? Or more of a cheaper money maker?

 

[MrMurdoch]

Thanks mate. I took a bit of a chance in the forward line with a few mid pricers i thought would finish top 10 forwards or close to it. Have Danger as my super prem then went Zorko, Mitchell and Parker as the ones i thought would finish up the top and then also Dahlhaus as a speculative. He was going nicely until last week.

I dont think Merrett can keep these scores up. Id say Caddy has more of a chance of being a keeper. My options i was tossing up were either upgrade now to a Dusty / Wingard etc or downgrade to a Taylor and get some cash. Maybe give him to his bye round to see if he can lift his game.

Also now that it looks like Michie is out for a month, would you suggest trading him? If so, would you say to someone like Macrae? Or more of a cheaper money maker?

Where did you hear that Michie is out for a month?

 

[MrMurdoch]

Where did you hear that Michie is out for a month?

Never mind found it lol

 

[Santoz]

Hi Rowsus,

Brad Hill a worthy straight swap for Walters?

Just can't quite afford Cyril without burning 2 trades.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Would love your thoughts on Matthew Jaensch. Am thinking of trading Guthrie for him. Has looked impressive so far this season.

Hey Rowsus. Just been having the compulsory tinker and played around with the following trades:

Smith > Jaensch
Caddy > Parker

Thoughts?

Caddy's last 2 games have been concerning, and while I am going to stick with him a bit longer, I can certainly understand why some will change him up to a Parker type player. As to Jaensch, read below.
Good luck

On thing that could be helping Jaensch's scores is opportunity. With departures from last season (I'm sure someone left from their backline because they were talking about Henderson filling that role initially) plus injuries to key players (Henderson, Shaw, Otten, Van Berlo etc) is creating opportunity for the likes of Smith and Jaensch to play roles they may not have had the opportunity to previously. Jaensch particularly is taking his opportunities so far. I guess if the Crows get some of these guys back, how does that effect Jaensch's role and scores? Personally I have Guthrie in D4 and I think that Jaensch will definitely earn better cash, has more potential as a D6 keeper than Guthrie, who hasn't been bad but as a tagger is playing a lockdown role that isn't great for SC scores.

There is no doubt that Jaensch could be a case of improvement and opportunity meeting. I still like to see something in their history that shows the potential was there to improve. Not just a fluke good score here or there, but a 5 or 6 game streak of scoring at a better level. Jaensch's best streak was in 2011 where he had 6 games at around 89-90. If you bring him in, you need him to be a Keeper. Once the season starts there are only 2 types of players to trade in, Keepers and Rookies. Some might be happy to sit a cheaper player at D6, and accept 88-90 from him. What concerns me is, Jaensch's highest game count in an season has been 13, to achieve 90 he needs to go 30 and 35/game above his last 2 seasons, and if he does achieve 90, and play every game, he will only score at 87 from here. While he looks good so far, and may put together a couple or 3 more scores before the correction comes, I do believe the correction will come. He's done well for those that started with him, but I think there is a decent risk in trading him in now. Rather than jump on missed scores, I prefer to think nearly all the jam has been sucked from his donut. He's not for me, but I am prepared to say he could prove me wrong.