Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[Herbie66]

Oh from one MPM fan to another... it works up to $409k and still be in front on points.
View attachment 26042

got me intrigued

how would it work with (a extra line at the top)

10 @ $ 572 k = $ 5.7 million
12 @ $ 350 k = $ 4.2 million but with ppg say 80

 

[randomcliche]

In the past 10 years, has the cheap R2 proved to be a meritorious starting selection.?

Only when the situation arises, depends on what you call cheap as well. Lets say cheap is <$500k. Witts (Post boy); ROB on the bench into R2; Sandi at $300k. There was a year when Ryder and Kreuzer were both low $400's and F/R eligible and both turned out to be premo forwards, could have started them at R2. Perhaps Mumford in 2010, Cox 2011, Jacobs 2014, Gawn 2016, Grundy 2018.

 

[randomcliche]

got me intrigued

how would it work with (a extra line at the top)

10 @ $ 572 k = $ 5.7 million
12 @ $ 350 k = $ 3.5 million but with ppg say 80

probably find a better thread under structure or something and reply there if you want to take this analysis further.

 

[Herbie66]

View attachment 26043

Apart from the fact I can't even calculate basic maths in my head anymore 😀

so 80 ppg looks too low to make a significant profit (but still should give you reliable/solid onfield points) until they can be upgraded

provided you have the best 8 rookies who now should score 60ppg so each making $ 196,500.00

you should then be able to upgrade 8 of them (427,000 + 196,500) easily enough

That's if I understand it all correctly.


Lots of if's and but's , theoretically could work if you have 12 players @ $ 350k approximately all scoring 80+

Arguments sake

Milera
Caldwell , Green , Hately , Heppell , Sier
Preuss
Daniher , Impey , Ziebell

+2

obviously I will calculate their total combined starting price later.

maybe their are rookies < $ 200k who can score close to 80

Thanks for the information , time to get the pen and paper out and do some calculations

 

[wogitalia]

Further to the post above I just wanted to add some colour to my thinking on ROIC. I've used this in supporting my mid priced selections for a few years, but never had the stones to not spend the saved capital. If you could identify 22 Preuss like players (impossible) you could score more with less capital and build a higher value team. Have a look at the two scenarios below (bit of simplification but you'll get the drift).

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View attachment 26041

Of course the equation flips if you find the rookies who average 70 to start instead of fielding 8 mediocre rookies. Last year my top 8 starting rookies averaged 73.5 (they did cost more than 123k on average also to be fair), it's probably even higher but I balanced it with 2 forwards and backs each (I only started 1 of each last year because I didn't rate them at all). I'd say finding 8 of them is going to be a lot more common than 22 guys to average 95 at substantial discounts.

I think it also over-simplifies the premium choices to suggest that people aren't going to be looking for any value in that group either. There are a few exceptions but almost every premium I'm choosing I'm hoping for 5+ppg of improvement. The exception being the ultra premium captain choices such as Neale or Gawn or the forwards where my hand is forced this year and even then I lean towards Dunkley and Marshall who both have narratives of improvement in them.

e.g. I'm picking Laird, Mills and Docherty hoping they all improve 5+, Petracca, Crouch, Walsh, Cripps are all at least that much. Grundy is 10 points I'm hoping for and so on.

It's a handy tool though and does illustrate how you can find a team in hindsight that requires no trades to win it all and that the midprice guys who produce are absolutely worthwhile picks but it also clearly illustrates what they need to do to match the rookies in cash and points output. Their increased JS (generally) can be worth a premium as well as some other factors such as no rookie options at their position or in general. It's really just the 1st round pick premium discussion on steroids. I also think that in the forwards and backs those picks have far more merit because of the keeper thresholds being lower and attainable and I still think that's the first and best reason you'd want a midprice pick.

There are many ways to skin a cat in this game, ultimately though there are so many options that can force the hand on decisions.

 

[randomcliche]

Of course the equation flips if you find the rookies who average 70 to start instead of fielding 8 mediocre rookies. Last year my top 8 starting rookies averaged 73.5 (they did cost more than 123k on average also to be fair), it's probably even higher but I balanced it with 2 forwards and backs each (I only started 1 of each last year because I didn't rate them at all). I'd say finding 8 of them is going to be a lot more common than 22 guys to average 95 at substantial discounts.

I think it also over-simplifies the premium choices to suggest that people aren't going to be looking for any value in that group either. There are a few exceptions but almost every premium I'm choosing I'm hoping for 5+ppg of improvement. The exception being the ultra premium captain choices such as Neale or Gawn or the forwards where my hand is forced this year and even then I lean towards Dunkley and Marshall who both have narratives of improvement in them.

e.g. I'm picking Laird, Mills and Docherty hoping they all improve 5+, Petracca, Crouch, Walsh, Cripps are all at least that much. Grundy is 10 points I'm hoping for and so on.

It's a handy tool though and does illustrate how you can find a team in hindsight that requires no trades to win it all and that the midprice guys who produce are absolutely worthwhile picks but it also clearly illustrates what they need to do to match the rookies in cash and points output. Their increased JS (generally) can be worth a premium as well as some other factors such as no rookie options at their position or in general. It's really just the 1st round pick premium discussion on steroids. I also think that in the forwards and backs those picks have far more merit because of the keeper thresholds being lower and attainable and I still think that's the first and best reason you'd want a midprice pick.

There are many ways to skin a cat in this game, ultimately though there are so many options that can force the hand on decisions.

Yeah the points flip at 67 ppg, but the moral of the story is there is still $2,400,000 left to spend. (I haven't optimized everything). The point of the exercise was really to show that there is significant value available by selecting Preuss. He is my first selected player in 2020! I believe he represents the best combination of price and points output and will not leave my starting team baring injury. (I also read all the I'm selecting Gawn comments with fear). I envisage him becoming Gawn in round 15 after Gawn's R14 bye - many talk about upgrading him earlier, I think preuss on field over any rookie is a win and I'll look to ride this value train as long as possible.

FWIW the analysis does assume a 4% increase in the premos (but also holds MN constant, plenty of simplifications, no trading). Like you, beyond Neale (who I'm having second thoughts on) I'm also looking for growth in premos output right across the board.

I've absolutely appreciated your input this preseason it's been a pleasure to read.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359329574484545541

 

[Darkie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359329574484545541

Yuck, just put a line through Hickey.

 

[Professor]

Yuck, just put a line through Hickey.

Yeah, I think someone had asked about him, so posted. His role looks like injury backup.

 

[Darkie]

Yeah, I think someone had asked about him, so posted. His role looks like injury backup.

Thanks, very helpful. I think it may have been @freowho highlighting him as a potentially viable alternative to Preuss, with a better ruck draw.

 

[Professor]

Thanks, very helpful. I think it may have been @freowho highlighting him as a potentially viable alternative to Preuss, with a better ruck draw.

I went from Preuss and Martin, back to Gawn and Grundy, with only 2 spots limited to the ruck spot, I can't afford to be wasting trades to get them in, whereas, in the other lines there are a lot more options.

 

[Darkie]

I went from Preuss and Martin, back to Gawn and Grundy, with only 2 spots limited to the ruck spot, I can't afford to be wasting trades to get them in, whereas, in the other lines there are a lot more options.

It is certainly a unique line in some respects.

Grundy has been absolutely locked for me since before last year started, so it’s just a question of who partners him.

I could probably be happy enough if I found any of Gawn, Preuss or Marshall at R2 after round 1 lockout based on what we know today.

Currently have Gawn with Marshall at F1 though.

Edit: “before last year started” is probably a bit strong 😋 What I meant was “before last season ended”!

 

[wogitalia]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359329574484545541

I have no idea what's happening here... Sinclair is a really bad player. Naismith injured and Hickey really hasn't been much more than a bad player outside some rare flashes.

I really don't get the point of playing two ruckmen who are bad forwards and bad ruckmen, one is bad enough but burning a second spot in the team on a guy who gives you nothing.

Don't think the JS would be good for either of them. As they're not good so they'll get mauled and the other will come in. Really I'm just sitting here hoping Naismith gets back in better time than his last ACL, did it in round 1 so really should be right already so not a great sign to not be hearing about him at all so far. If not Naismith I'd love us to try Amartey, he can't be worse than the other two in the ruck and might give something around the ground.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Treacy was reportedly very impressive in Freo’s match sim yesterday kicking multiple goals playing as a forward and is a chance for round 1.

We might need to find our FD elsewhere this season.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I have no idea what's happening here... Sinclair is a really bad player. Naismith injured and Hickey really hasn't been much more than a bad player outside some rare flashes.

I really don't get the point of playing two ruckmen who are bad forwards and bad ruckmen, one is bad enough but burning a second spot in the team on a guy who gives you nothing.

Don't think the JS would be good for either of them. As they're not good so they'll get mauled and the other will come in. Really I'm just sitting here hoping Naismith gets back in better time than his last ACL, did it in round 1 so really should be right already so not a great sign to not be hearing about him at all so far. If not Naismith I'd love us to try Amartey, he can't be worse than the other two in the ruck and might give something around the ground.

I am grateful the Swans let go Toby Nankervis
- On 19 October 2016 he was traded to Richmond in exchange for a third round draft selection.

 

[McLovin]

Treacy was reportedly very impressive in Freo’s match sim yesterday kicking multiple goals playing as a forward and is a chance for round 1.

We might need to find our FD elsewhere this season.

Would this be as backup to Lobb with Darcy injured again? Freo do have Llyod Meek as well. Personally I'd just start Treacy at R3 if he's picked rd1.

 

[The Experiment]

Would this be as backup to Lobb with Darcy injured again? Freo do have Llyod Meek as well. Personally I'd just start Treacy at R3 if he's picked rd1.

JL has stated he is keen to try just the 2 Key forwards this year. Assuming everyone is fit, that is Lobb and Tabs, with Darcy in the ruck. I think the general vibe is that Meek isnt ready as yet, so logically, and given comments on his pre-season thus far, I would suggest Treacy is the next logical choice should one of these 3 miss. And let's face it, Darcy and Tabs are very injury prone. So wouldnt be surprised to see Treacy debut early on.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

And let's face it, Darcy and Tabs are very injury prone. So wouldnt be surprised to see Treacy debut early on.

Maybe Prestia, Darcy and Taberner should join a First Aid course!

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Would this be as backup to Lobb with Darcy injured again? Freo do have Llyod Meek as well. Personally I'd just start Treacy at R3 if he's picked rd1.

Quite possibly.

Yeah for sure. Treacy is a lock at R3 whether he plays or not.

 

[wogitalia]

I'd be more interested in Treacy if he's playing but I'm an admittedly terrible loopholer and don't remember a season I haven't had a donut by round somewhere anyway so for me the potential for cash generation from that spot without paying a premium for Preuss is a great result.