Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

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I just dont think Collingwood have the forward line for De Goey to be a mid, at his price he really needs to be a keeper and that won't happen up forward.
He's hard to get a read on. He's had both horrible and really big scores as both a midfielder and a forward. I can't see a strong pattern for how he becomes a keeper yet I can't help but think he will be at some point. Bit like Alan Didak. Even though I think he might be a handy pick with improved fitness it's hard to see him hurting non owners like Petracca did last year. He's part of my planning but unlikely to get a gig.
 

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Possibly a question for the mods... are we going to have individual threads for positional discussion this year or is there not enough need to spread them out at this point?
On one hand it's easier to find things but on the other hand it's more threads to view so :shrug: :unsure:
Great question and your wish has been answered...(y)
 
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He's hard to get a read on. He's had both horrible and really big scores as both a midfielder and a forward. I can't see a strong pattern for how he becomes a keeper yet I can't help but think he will be at some point. Bit like Alan Didak. Even though I think he might be a handy pick with improved fitness it's hard to see him hurting non owners like Petracca did last year. He's part of my planning but unlikely to get a gig.
There's certainly a case for him more through the midfield but I'd say he's more in the Petracca 2019 than 2020 role where he gets burst midfield minutes. An improved tank and fitness has him capable of pushing towards the mid 90s I think and if he has big impact on his touches that can push towards 100. Ultimately with him I'm not sure there is enough upside, especially in the first 6 rounds, to really counter the risks that he carries. His durability has been very ordinary, he needs to improve 10-15 points to work out and he has no scope as a cash generator.

Basically he's a perfect target to upgrade into in the early rounds if he looks really fit and is playing a very good midfield role. Same as Petracca last year who was only 60k more in round 6 than his starting price, reckon that the extra information on a high volatility player like De Goey is worth that personally.

Does Brad Crouch leaving mean Adelaide rely more on Sloane again?
Maybe but I reckon Laird is probably going full time like the end of last year and I expect them to use Hately at least initially in that spot. There's still plenty of midfield minutes but Sloane has been pushed outside the past two seasons and as a guy who relies heavily on tackles and contested touches that's bad sign.

Will be watching him closely in the preseason though, similar to Boak a few years back for mine where if the role is right then he's more than capable of getting back to his best but his role has been bad the past couple of years.

Similar to De Goey where he's not cheap enough to be anything but a premium if you pick him. There's so many trades these days that almost isn't good enough in a final team so you really need him pushing the 110 mark, capable, sure, likely, probably not.
 
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He's hard to get a read on. He's had both horrible and really big scores as both a midfielder and a forward. I can't see a strong pattern for how he becomes a keeper yet I can't help but think he will be at some point. Bit like Alan Didak. Even though I think he might be a handy pick with improved fitness it's hard to see him hurting non owners like Petracca did last year. He's part of my planning but unlikely to get a gig.
The other thought with a pick like this is, you could end up with a middling player than isn't scoring bad enough that you have to trade them.. but also takes up a spot that could have gone to a genuine top 6-8 forward. I've had that happen in the past where I've got someone who isn't what I'd describe as a disaster so is a lower priority fix than some other spots, but drives me crazy every week I have their average score compared to what the top guys are scoring. I can see De Goey falling squarely into that bracket.
 
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didnt see this posted anywhere else, but heeney isnt yet fully training and hasnt started match simulation work, :unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure:

https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/856339/heeney-focussed-on-return

"The work I've put in is positive for my ankle at the moment. I'm not far off, I'm doing a lot of agility, game base [work] without the contact but that's the next step for me – the contact work and that will put some more strain through my ankle. Hopefully after that I'm not far off some game simulation...........I hope so [for round one], fingers crossed. I'll be aiming for it for sure but I don't want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I'll be right for round one," he said.

Edit: he's currently in my side by seriously re-evaluating this!
 
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didnt see this posted anywhere else, but heeney isnt yet fully training and hasnt started match simulation work, :unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure:

https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/856339/heeney-focussed-on-return

"The work I've put in is positive for my ankle at the moment. I'm not far off, I'm doing a lot of agility, game base [work] without the contact but that's the next step for me – the contact work and that will put some more strain through my ankle. Hopefully after that I'm not far off some game simulation...........I hope so [for round one], fingers crossed. I'll be aiming for it for sure but I don't want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I'll be right for round one," he said.

Edit: he's currently in my side by seriously re-evaluating this!
Yeah, I posted a similar article in the forwards thread just before this. He has gone from a possibility as a starter to a wait and see for me. He also said his role will be mainly forward, not much midfield for anyone hoping that might boost his scoring.
 
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There's certainly a case for him more through the midfield but I'd say he's more in the Petracca 2019 than 2020 role where he gets burst midfield minutes. An improved tank and fitness has him capable of pushing towards the mid 90s I think and if he has big impact on his touches that can push towards 100. Ultimately with him I'm not sure there is enough upside, especially in the first 6 rounds, to really counter the risks that he carries. His durability has been very ordinary, he needs to improve 10-15 points to work out and he has no scope as a cash generator.

Basically he's a perfect target to upgrade into in the early rounds if he looks really fit and is playing a very good midfield role. Same as Petracca last year who was only 60k more in round 6 than his starting price, reckon that the extra information on a high volatility player like De Goey is worth that personally.
I agree we don't have to start with him but I would like to know more about the midfield vs forward thing and would like anyone to chime in. Below are the first 7 rounds last year. Treloar returned in rnd 5. His disposals are low. Was he attending the centre bounce and then going forward rather than chasing the ball? Did he have a run with role?

1612147828083.png
 
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I think you're looking at it completely wrong on the money making and also underrating what a full preseason means. The JS these guys possess is also a huge factor, guys can't make any money if they're not playing.

Money making isn't about average, it's about scoring spikes. A couple of hundreds in a 3 week span and they will make more than enough money for their starting price. The big 120+ scores can move guys into big time cash generation.

As for the players, my thoughts:

Daniher - Averaged 85 for a season the last time he was fit and most thought he'd go higher the next year. Brisbane's medical staff are in a different ball park to the Bombers they're that much better and a full preseason is huge for a guy who struggled to do back to back training sessions under the Bombers. More importantly he can score explosively with his play style, as evidenced by the 100 on return last year. Also looks set to be the backup ruck, a role that oozes points. Fitness at round one is the only question mark at his price for me.

Impey - Not as sold here but he's cheap and proven to be able to average 70 and also score spike to a decent extent. He hasn't got as much explosive scoring so he's going to be more of a slow burn. Still, if a 125k rookie offers decent JS I'd take the 100k and move him on personally.

Brown - Very much in the Daniher with a bit less peak ability thrown in. Decent side who should supply him and like Daniher he's absolutely capable of very big scores. Had 3 130+ scores in 2019. He also tends to get on hot streaks. That's perfect for cash generation. He's also very capable of averaging 80, having a slightly above rookie priced player who can do that while spiking into the 120+ scores to really generate cash is invaluable. Realistically you need a couple of rookies you can hold and play towards the byes, the premium on him would be worth it for that.

Ziebell - He goes to an even higher level because he's been a keeper level scorer before. He's absurdly capable of huge scores in the role he played the last few years, he's averaged mid 80s or better for the best part of a decade. Throw in the potential move to an even more lucrative role in which you'd have to think he'd take kick-ins as probably the best kick in the side and would be the primary distributor and, plausibly, interceptor also and he falls to the, if he's fit for round 1, type of selection.


None of that means that things can't go wrong or that these guys work out but realistically at the end of the day their JS puts them comfortably ahead of all rookies despite any durability issues (which realistically only Daniher has, the others all just had a bad season after being durable previously), that most of the top picks this year are KP types only further pushes that out for mine. Realistically for 300k each less I reckon you've got 3 guys capable of averaging within 15 points of most of the premiums this year.

Ultimately you have to take risks somewhere and given the volatility of the premiums this year I think that makes sense to be the forwards, that we've got so many genuinely decent options just adds to that as being a viable strategy imo.
Great post, but did you really mean to say Ziebell's a good kick? I don't think I've ever seen him do anything other than hack the ball long and high to no one in particular.
 
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I agree we don't have to start with him but I would like to know more about the midfield vs forward thing and would like anyone to chime in. Below are the first 7 rounds last year. Treloar returned in rnd 5. His disposals are low. Was he attending the centre bounce and then going forward rather than chasing the ball? Did he have a run with role?

View attachment 25696
I started DeGoey last season based on the idea that burst players would benefit from shortened quarters. Definitely didn't work out, horrible pick. I didn't put much thought into the selection at all- or any of my other starting picks really, I had no idea if the season was even going to start or finish. As it turned out I seemed to be onto something when he got plenty centre bounce time to start with, problem was his SC scoring went backwards. He was around the ball a lot without actually getting much of it, when he got his hands on it he'd often get tackled before he could get a stat etc. Didn't seem like a good fit for the role and unsurprisingly he didn't last long in it, or in my side.

Don't even consider him.
 
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Great post, but did you really mean to say Ziebell's a good kick? I don't think I've ever seen him do anything other than hack the ball long and high to no one in particular.
Maybe he meant relative, I watch Mcdonald kick ins and he was awful. Regretted trading him however he was great at getting cheap received ball.

Re Ziebell, you are spot on, he is below average on disposal efficiency at 61-63pct in 2018 and 2019. Good insight.
 
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The 11 secret herbs and spices to success in KFC SuperCoach AFL in 2021
From finding the best rookies to expert trade tactics, here is how to set up your KFC SuperCoach team to dominate in 2021.
Al Paton
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...1/news-story/fa6cf7a4271216bcc944b5cd009a5311

1. Get the right rookies

A “rookie” in KFC SuperCoach world is any player priced at about $200,000 or under (No.1 draft pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is $207,300).

A good starting KFC SuperCoach squad will contain up to 15 rookies — filling the bench in each position plus a few spots on the field to create space in the salary cap to afford the big guns you want.

Rookies also fill a crucial role as the players with the most potential to rise in value during the season — good scores mean bigger price rises — allowing you to cash them in and buy more superstars. Last year’s most popular rookie, Tiger Marlion Pickett, started the season valued at $123,900 and by Round 10 you could have sold him for almost $350,000.

The most important goal is to get rookies who are playing — even low scores are better than nothing. The easiest way to derail your KFC SuperCoach hopes is to select rookies who don’t get games.

Check out our Rookie Bible to make sure you get the best cheapies this year.

2. Lay the foundations

One big lesson many KFC SuperCoach players learned in 2020 was it’s not much fun watching established stars produce big scores for your mates when you don’t have them.

Sometimes you just need to pay up to get the best. Jake Lloyd is very expensive, but in 2020 he was the topscoring defender — averaging 15 points a game more than the next-best player in his position (Luke Ryan). It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he isn’t at least in the top three defenders in 2021, so just pick him now and save yourself the stress of missing out on his scores or figuring out how to trade him in.

The same goes for Max Gawn in the ruck and Lachie Neale in the midfield.

3. Avoid injury-prone players

If you’re paying big dollars for AFL stars, you need them playing every week.

Freak knee injuries are one thing, but repeated soft-tissue problems are a big red flag.

GWS gun Josh Kelly can score with the best KFC SuperCoach midfielders, but in the past three seasons he has played 42 of a possible 61 matches, costing his owners a trade — or worse, waiting for weeks while the Giants put out vague statements about his availability.

Kelly averaged 115 points a game in 2020 but on total points he was behind Trent Dumont and Touk Miller, who just showed up every week.

Pick Lachie Neale and you can sleep easy — he has missed only one game in the past six seasons. Clayton Oliver hasn’t missed a game since 2016.

4. Fitness first

On a similar note, you can cross off players who have interrupted pre-seasons.

Hawk Tom Mitchell can usually score KFC SuperCoach points in his sleep but he is racing the clock to be fit for Round 1 after having a shoulder reconstruction in October last year.

Even if he makes it to the finish line, he’s likely to be underdone and start the season slowly. Better to pick a fully fit midfielder available for around the same price.

Meanwhile, news Patrick Dangerfield is battling a groin issue has alarm bells ringing.

Check in at heraldsun.com.au, adelaidenow.com.au and follow @superfooty on Twitter to stay on top of the latest injury news.

5. Value, value, value

If you starting picking all your favourite players you will realise something quickly: $10 million doesn’t go very far.

Your aim should be to select players who will perform at or above their starting value, but the likes of Max Gawn and Jake Lloyd will struggle to improve on their mind-boggling 2020 numbers. Having said that, they are still likely to be the top players in their position so it’s worth forking out the cash (see point 2 above).

That makes it even more crucial to find some value selections to fill out your squad. And there are plenty of options, from forward line bargains like Jack Ziebell, Ben Brown and Joe Daniher to underpriced midfielders Elliot Yeo and Dyson Heppell.

Mid-price selections are traditionally risky but if you get them right, it can set up your season.

6. Share the fun

The real fun of KFC SuperCoach is the letting your friends know about all the decisions you got right (and defending the ones that may not have gone exactly as planned).

Create your own private league to take on your family and friends in head-to-head matches each week on the road to a finals series over the final four home-and-away rounds. The final round is KFC SuperCoach grand final day.

You can add our experts to your league, set up rivalries and groups in the KFC SuperCoach site, and get social by joining the KFC SuperCoach debate on social media. Start with the official Facebook and Twitter accounts, the KFC SuperCoach Facebook Group and follow experts like Al Paton (@al_superfoooty), Tim Michell (@tim_michell) and The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC).

7. Trading tactics

You have unlimited trades until Round 1 then 30 for the rest of the season. Some of those will be needed to replace an injured player, but if you use the others wisely you can end up with a much stronger team than the line-up you start with.

Every player’s price will change after they have played three matches, and each week after that. You want to make sure you’ve got the best cheapies and bargains before their price shoots up.

Experienced KFC SuperCoach players talk about getting players “on the bubble” after they have played two matches and before an imminent price rise. This usually applies to rookies but not always — a potential bargain like Jack Ziebell is set to shoot up from his $257,900 starting price if he scores well. And price moves also work in the other direction. Score poorly and your price will fall; Ziebell’s value fell by more than $200,000 last year.

The key to successful trading is timing — buy players before their price goes up, and trade out players before their price falls.

It can be hard to predict a sudden price drop, but you can see a price jump coming if you know what to look for.

An injury to a star player early in a match is often a pointer to a bargain trade a few weeks later. Last year Tom Stewart lost almost $100,000 in value after scoring just 18 points in Round 4, when he was out of the game by quarter-time. Smart KFC SuperCoach players knew that didn’t represent his try scoring ability and snapped him when his price bottomed out in Round 10. They were rewarded with seven 100-plus scores in the last seven rounds.

You can track projected price moves in KFC SuperCoach Plus.

Try to avoid “sideways” trades where you swap players of a similar value without improving your team overall.


8. Check teams and late changes

Improving your KFC SuperCoach performance can be as simple as checking in before the round starts to make sure all your players have been named, and you have set your captain, vice-captain and emergencies in each position.

There’s nothing worse than logging on after the round has started only to find one of your players wasn’t selected or was a late withdrawal — a mistake even the most experienced KFC SuerCoach players would confess to making at some stage.

There is a rolling lockout in KFC SuperCoach which means players are locked for the round when their team plays — so if one of your players is a late out you can still trade them out or move them to the benches long as their replacement hasn’t played yet.

9. Back your gut

You don’t want to miss the boat on the most popular players, but you also want to set your team apart from the pack.

KFC SuperCoach is more fun when you have a few unique selections in your squad based on your own research and instincts — when they score well there is no better feeling.

But be careful — it can be very risky to have a team full of them!

10. Mistakes can be fixed

Regrets? We’ve had a few. Every seasoned KFC SuperCoach player has stories about their pre-season specials that bombed, trades that backfired and terrible captain calls. Sure, they are frustrating, but remember everyone makes them — last year’s winner admits to making a “panic trade” late in the year and bringing in Sydney fringe midfielder James Rowbottom, who was rested the following week. The fact Jason Barnett recovered and won the $50,000 prize is a lesson to us all — don’t spend too much time worrying about the calls that don’t go the way you hope, especially when so much is out of your control. Move on to the next trade — remember this is a marathon not a sprint.
 
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didnt see this posted anywhere else, but heeney isnt yet fully training and hasnt started match simulation work, :unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure:

https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/856339/heeney-focussed-on-return

"The work I've put in is positive for my ankle at the moment. I'm not far off, I'm doing a lot of agility, game base [work] without the contact but that's the next step for me – the contact work and that will put some more strain through my ankle. Hopefully after that I'm not far off some game simulation...........I hope so [for round one], fingers crossed. I'll be aiming for it for sure but I don't want to say anything just in case. Touch wood everything goes really smoothly and I'll be right for round one," he said.

Edit: he's currently in my side by seriously re-evaluating this!
Even more concerning was that he expects to have the same role, which was basically full time forward. No preseason and bad role does not a fantasy pick make!

Great post, but did you really mean to say Ziebell's a good kick? I don't think I've ever seen him do anything other than hack the ball long and high to no one in particular.
I did say best for the team rather than good but he's a fundamentally sound kick who should execute well from kick-ins. He certainly does have a tendency to do exactly what you said though, probably a symptom of a team with no structure or options up forward (Ben Brown as the only option) because technically he is good.
 
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What's the 11th secret herb...?
11. Did someone say KFC?

Sure, bragging rights are great, but you know what’s better? Bragging rights and fried chicken. Every week, the Colonel is going to be serving up vouchers to the top 11 players on the KFC SuperCoach leaderboard. Imagine snagging yourself a three-piece box, paid for with nothing more than your footy savvy.

There are more great rewards on offer throughout the year and for the top players at the end of the season, including some amazing KFC merch. Even if your KFC SuperCoach team is struggling you can still find yourself in some amazing KFC gear.
 
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