Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[Connoisseur]

Placing it here instead of in the General Discussion thread (for the time being) due to the higher traffic received.

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/601846

https://exchange.telstra.com.au/were-evolving-the-way-we-deliver-live-afl-and-nrl-games/

Today we’re launching an exclusive offer for customers who have previously used the NRL or AFL Live Passes. Eligible customers will now receive a special offer from Telstra of $20/month off Kayo’s Basic subscription (usually $25/month) for 12 months – meaning you can enjoy all the sports you want with Kayo for just $5/month for 12 months.

If you’re a Telstra mobile customer, but haven’t watched AFL or NRL games on our apps before, we’re also offering $10/month off Kayo for you to get into the footy craze. With these exclusive offers, you’ll be able to catch the action from a line-up of more than 50 of the best international and domestic sports in 2021.

Things you need to know about the “$20/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra

• Offer available to eligible AFL or NRL Telstra Live Pass customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. To be eligible, customers must have redeemed a Telstra AFL or NRL Live Pass service prior to 22 Dec 2020 and maintain that active Telstra service used to redeem it.
• Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method. Eligible users will receive details of the offer via direct communication from Telstra with instructions on how to take up the offer through Telstra.
• Customers who have previously purchased an annual subscription to AFL Live Pass or NRL Live Pass will receive a partial refund, depending the term length remaining on their subscription.
• There is no change to Live Pass for the Netball Live Official App or My Football Live App as a result of this announcement

Things you need to know about the “$10/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra for Telstra consumer customers

• Offer available to Telstra consumer customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer account. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method.

 

[Ratzondix]

Placing it here instead of in the General Discussion thread (for the time being) due to the higher traffic received.

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/601846

https://exchange.telstra.com.au/were-evolving-the-way-we-deliver-live-afl-and-nrl-games/

Today we’re launching an exclusive offer for customers who have previously used the NRL or AFL Live Passes. Eligible customers will now receive a special offer from Telstra of $20/month off Kayo’s Basic subscription (usually $25/month) for 12 months – meaning you can enjoy all the sports you want with Kayo for just $5/month for 12 months.

If you’re a Telstra mobile customer, but haven’t watched AFL or NRL games on our apps before, we’re also offering $10/month off Kayo for you to get into the footy craze. With these exclusive offers, you’ll be able to catch the action from a line-up of more than 50 of the best international and domestic sports in 2021.

Things you need to know about the “$20/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra

• Offer available to eligible AFL or NRL Telstra Live Pass customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. To be eligible, customers must have redeemed a Telstra AFL or NRL Live Pass service prior to 22 Dec 2020 and maintain that active Telstra service used to redeem it.
• Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method. Eligible users will receive details of the offer via direct communication from Telstra with instructions on how to take up the offer through Telstra.
• Customers who have previously purchased an annual subscription to AFL Live Pass or NRL Live Pass will receive a partial refund, depending the term length remaining on their subscription.
• There is no change to Live Pass for the Netball Live Official App or My Football Live App as a result of this announcement

Things you need to know about the “$10/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra for Telstra consumer customers

• Offer available to Telstra consumer customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer account. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method.

For those that aren’t with Telstra. You get 2 simultaneous streams with a standard account or 3 with premium so you can split your account between 2-3 people and don’t need to be in the same household. I split it with my dad for $12.50/month.

 

[warewolves]

Does anyone have stats - say over the past 3 seasons - on how many rookies (under 200k) who were picked in Round 1 who made it to 300k in value before round 10.?

 

[Vicwood]

Does anyone have stats - say over the past 3 seasons - on how many rookies (under 200k) who were picked in Round 1 who made it to 300k in value before round 10.?

I can already vision Connoissuer dusting off the archives vault.

 

[Under The Dome]

I can already vision Connoissuer dusting off the archives vault.

Probably has them in a locked cabinet,laminated and alphabetised/colour-coded.

 

[Bomber18]

Placing it here instead of in the General Discussion thread (for the time being) due to the higher traffic received.

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/601846

https://exchange.telstra.com.au/were-evolving-the-way-we-deliver-live-afl-and-nrl-games/

Today we’re launching an exclusive offer for customers who have previously used the NRL or AFL Live Passes. Eligible customers will now receive a special offer from Telstra of $20/month off Kayo’s Basic subscription (usually $25/month) for 12 months – meaning you can enjoy all the sports you want with Kayo for just $5/month for 12 months.

If you’re a Telstra mobile customer, but haven’t watched AFL or NRL games on our apps before, we’re also offering $10/month off Kayo for you to get into the footy craze. With these exclusive offers, you’ll be able to catch the action from a line-up of more than 50 of the best international and domestic sports in 2021.

Things you need to know about the “$20/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra

• Offer available to eligible AFL or NRL Telstra Live Pass customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. To be eligible, customers must have redeemed a Telstra AFL or NRL Live Pass service prior to 22 Dec 2020 and maintain that active Telstra service used to redeem it.
• Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method. Eligible users will receive details of the offer via direct communication from Telstra with instructions on how to take up the offer through Telstra.
• Customers who have previously purchased an annual subscription to AFL Live Pass or NRL Live Pass will receive a partial refund, depending the term length remaining on their subscription.
• There is no change to Live Pass for the Netball Live Official App or My Football Live App as a result of this announcement

Things you need to know about the “$10/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra for Telstra consumer customers

• Offer available to Telstra consumer customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer account. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method.

Thanks for sharing. Awesome deal this...! I think I should fit the criteria for the $5 per month Kayo deal!

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Oh yeah, that's what I want , fatty junk food and merchandise to remind of a corporate logo that has flashed before my eyes a million times everytime I open supercoach.!!!!
The over exposure of this junk food brand is out of control.It's bloody brainwashing!!
Junk food advertising should be banned from sporting events imo !!!

 

[Socrates2]

I'm considering Fyfe & Cerra (mid) who have an easy early fixture, Tom Phillips (Hawks fwd) if playing midfield, which he may do with Scully's retirement, and Zak Butters (fwd) who may play midfield and is 'flying.'

 

[Manikato1]

Oh yeah, that's what I want , fatty junk food and merchandise to remind of a corporate logo that has flashed before my eyes a million times everytime I open supercoach.!!!!
The over exposure of this junk food brand is out of control.It's bloody brainwashing!!
Junk food advertising should be banned from sporting events imo !!!

Socrates 471BC to 399 BC. Philosopher

"Bad men live that they may eat and drink, whereas good men eat and drink that they may live. "

 

[Manikato1]

In doing some background on a few players I came across this article.

Metres gained Breaking down the AFL's most misunderstood statistic (espn.com.au)

It is 18 months old but it was a very good read. Would be very interested if some of those lesser known stats regarding metres gained were available somewhere online. Especially assisted metres gained.

 

[Under The Dome]

So how does a slingshot trade work is it a bye 2/3 Premo swapped out for a previous bye free Premo?

 

[gutsroy]

Does anyone have stats - say over the past 3 seasons - on how many rookies (under 200k) who were picked in Round 1 who made it to 300k in value before round 10.?

Just responded to this before and accidentally deleted the entry instead of an extraneous gif lol , so once more with feeling....

Haven't looked at 2020 yet.
For 2015 - 2019, assuming the following:

(i) Starting price < 210k
(ii) Price entering Rd 11 > 300k
(iii) Differential (Price entering Rd 4) - (Starting Price) <>0 - to have a first price movement in Rd 4, they had to have played in all of Rds 1-3.

Ended up something like the list below. This was very quick and dirty, so if someone does a more nuanced review, go with theirs.
Probably more interesting to look at the differential between starting price and price at rd 11 than just the absolute price reached.
A top-priced rook like Tim Taranto getting to 355k from 207k is good, but it doesn't get the engines revving like a bottom priced bovine of the cash generating persuasion like the Saads, Tippas and Holmans of the world do.
Saad went 102 -> 381k, double the appreciation of Taranto. Tim Kelly was also great (117k - 402k), Bayley Fritsch, Life of Gryan Miers etc..
If you want the deltas or whatever, sing out, I'll have a look.
This reply lacked the dazzling wit and repartee of the original, tbh. Shot my bolt the first time around, in retrospect. Oh well, live and learn.

 

[gutsroy]

So how does a slingshot trade work is it a bye 2/3 Premo swapped out for a previous bye free Premo?

Yeah, when you trade out a keeper / premo going into their bye for one coming off theirs (so say the byes are rds 11, 12, 13, a slingshot would be trading out a premo rolling into their bye in rd 12 for a player coming off the rd 11 bye into rd 12, or a rd 13 bye player for a rd 11 / 12 premo in rd 13).
Hope I interpreted correctly.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I'm considering Fyfe & Cerra (mid) who have an easy early fixture, Tom Phillips (Hawks fwd) if playing midfield, which he may do with Scully's retirement, and Zak Butters (fwd) who may play midfield and is 'flying.'

Cerra and Butters interesting. Cerra getting more mid time, 1st rotation, although doesn't have the junior or recent stats to suggest 110, went 101 in latter part of the season, yet Brayshaw probably does. Butters did better than Rozee, yet it feels Rozee has the higher ceiling, although Port sound like a merry go round for midfield roles.

 

[Under The Dome]

Yeah, when you trade out a keeper / premo going into their bye for one coming off theirs (so say the byes are rds 11, 12, 13, a slingshot would be trading out a premo rolling into their bye in rd 12 for a player coming off the rd 11 bye into rd 12, or a rd 13 bye player for a rd 11 / 12 premo in rd 13).
Hope I interpreted correctly.

Cheers for that. There is a few first bye players under injury cloud atm so I wouldn't mind waiting on Mitchell to see if he has strength even after 10 games into the season.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Thanks for sharing. Awesome deal this...! I think I should fit the criteria for the $5 per month Kayo deal!

Anyone else have trouble getting it to work? Says I'm eligible then sends a one time code to some random account number and I get nowhere after that.

 

[warewolves]

Just responded to this before and accidentally deleted the entry instead of an extraneous gif lol , so once more with feeling....

Haven't looked at 2020 yet.
For 2015 - 2019, assuming the following:

(i) Starting price < 210k
(ii) Price entering Rd 11 > 300k
(iii) Differential (Price entering Rd 4) - (Starting Price) <>0 - to have a first price movement in Rd 4, they had to have played in all of Rds 1-3.

Ended up something like the list below. This was very quick and dirty, so if someone does a more nuanced review, go with theirs.
Probably more interesting to look at the differential between starting price and price at rd 11 than just the absolute price reached.
A top-priced rook like Tim Taranto getting to 355k from 207k is good, but it doesn't get the engines revving like a bottom priced bovine of the cash generating persuasion like the Saads, Tippas and Holmans of the world do.
Saad went 102 -> 381k, double the appreciation of Taranto. Tim Kelly was also great (117k - 402k), Bayley Fritsch, Life of Gryan Miers etc..
If you want the deltas or whatever, sing out, I'll have a look.
This reply lacked the dazzling wit and repartee of the original, tbh. Shot my bolt the first time around, in retrospect. Oh well, live and learn.
View attachment 25761

Thanks Gutsroy – Fantastic work and just what I was looking for. I’m always a bit skeptical of the G&R starting theory and these stats are keeping me guessing.

My thinking is that of you trade out two rookies fattened to $300K you can replace them with a pair at say $475K & $125K. If you start with 5-6 on-field rooks & work towards getting them upgraded, you’re going to need to have 10-12 rookies that get up to that $300K mark.

Your analysis shows that about 8 starting rooks will get there after round 10. Interestingly about a third of them are at the high-end ($180K+), also I suspect 2020 was well below average. By round 8-9-10 you need to be well into your upgrades. I suppose if you had picked all of the high-fliers, you could make G&R work, but probably not every year (& maybe not most years).

 

[freowho]

Does anyone have stats - say over the past 3 seasons - on how many rookies (under 200k) who were picked in Round 1 who made it to 300k in value before round 10.?

Your question prompted me to have a look at last year. There were only 16 players under $350K who made $150k by round 10. 8 of them started above $200k but most of the 8 would have been hard to predict. If you look at $100k profit then there are 52 and again, half started over $200k.
It's easy to get carried away with how much money we might make.

 

[wogitalia]

Thanks Gutsroy – Fantastic work and just what I was looking for. I’m always a bit skeptical of the G&R starting theory and these stats are keeping me guessing.

My thinking is that of you trade out two rookies fattened to $300K you can replace them with a pair at say $475K & $125K. If you start with 5-6 on-field rooks & work towards getting them upgraded, you’re going to need to have 10-12 rookies that get up to that $300K mark.

Your analysis shows that about 8 starting rooks will get there after round 10. Interestingly about a third of them are at the high-end ($180K+), also I suspect 2020 was well below average. By round 8-9-10 you need to be well into your upgrades. I suppose if you had picked all of the high-fliers, you could make G&R work, but probably not every year (& maybe not most years).

Something I believe is missing on those stats is rookies who weren't round 1 guys, generally when you downgrade the first few around round 6, you're downgrading into a couple more that will appreciate, which pretty quickly gets you to the 10. So assume you've got about 8 rookies you'll pick up another 3 or 4 generally to get you there.

 

[Herbie66]

Your question prompted me to have a look at last year. There were only 16 players under $350K who made $150k by round 10. 8 of them started above $200k but most of the 8 would have been hard to predict. If you look at $100k profit then there are 52 and again, half started over $200k.
It's easy to get carried away with how much money we might make.

Exactly

Add to the fact that if you have 2-4 of your bench rookies that vanish completely after 2-4 games and the $$$ dry up , more problems arise on how to upgrade to preferred premiums.

Be wonderful to have all 7 starting bench rookies (excluding VC/C 🍩) play 6-8 games at the start of the season each and increase in $$$ by $ 125-150k each.

Then at the same time your 7 onfield rookies/midpricers are also playing and making $$$ to make it easier to upgrade to preferred players.

Hard to find 15 starting keepers @ $ 500k each though.