Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[warewolves]

Something I believe is missing on those stats is rookies who weren't round 1 guys, generally when you downgrade the first few around round 6, you're downgrading into a couple more that will appreciate, which pretty quickly gets you to the 10. So assume you've got about 8 rookies you'll pick up another 3 or 4 generally to get you there.

That suggestion about feeding in more rookies from Round 6 is a tricky consideration and would require more complex stats research.
Two things to consider in this round 6 type scenario.

• You probably wouldn’t be swapping out your best performing rookies as they wouldn’t be anywhere near “fully fattened” – eg. one of last year’s best performers (Pickett) had gained about $210K after round 9, but had only clocked up $92K of that at round 6. So, we are probably looking at rookie trades which don’t generate very much cash – not much better than sideways moves – much like the other corrective trades suggested in the related post by Herbie66.
• We still need to get our rookies up to around that $300K mark, so you would need to be able to pluck a very cheap replacement rook within their bubble – whether there is a steady supply of those coming on stream – who will get to $300K – is the concern.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356809920385966085

 

[freowho]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356809920385966085

I've seen seagulls steal chips while people aren't looking!

 

[wogitalia]

That suggestion about feeding in more rookies from Round 6 is a tricky consideration and would require more complex stats research.
Two things to consider in this round 6 type scenario.

• You probably wouldn’t be swapping out your best performing rookies as they wouldn’t be anywhere near “fully fattened” – eg. one of last year’s best performers (Pickett) had gained about $210K after round 9, but had only clocked up $92K of that at round 6. So, we are probably looking at rookie trades which don’t generate very much cash – not much better than sideways moves – much like the other corrective trades suggested in the related post by Herbie66.
• We still need to get our rookies up to around that $300K mark, so you would need to be able to pluck a very cheap replacement rook within their bubble – whether there is a steady supply of those coming on stream – who will get to $300K – is the concern.

No doubt at all, wasn't a critique simply another factor that needs to be considered. While picking 15 starting rookies who all make 200k would be a dream it's entirely unrealistic, finding 7-10 in that group and another 3 or 4 as the year goes on though I think is generally a reasonable outcome that we get most years (whether we take it is another story!).

Timing of rookie trades is enormous, the other factor early is you don't want to cash those scoring well while you still need them on field which sometimes means you don't cash the ideal targets either and sometimes you think someone has peaked only for them to unleash the dragon the second you trade them.

 

[gutsroy]

Something I believe is missing on those stats is rookies who weren't round 1 guys, generally when you downgrade the first few around round 6, you're downgrading into a couple more that will appreciate, which pretty quickly gets you to the 10. So assume you've got about 8 rookies you'll pick up another 3 or 4 generally to get you there.

This was the list when I didn't include the rd 1 criterion, and spot on, that spread is ideal; the one or two who ton up rd 3 / 4 and give you the quick boost and option of moving on them early if circumstances permit / warrant and some who don't get a game in rd 1 but get their chance a month or so in so that you have a viable rookie to bring in in their stead if there's a circumstance with a fallen premo that may justify the early move.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356859750969823232

 

[Ironhawk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356859750969823232

I like that one of the more consistently decent mids in Parker never makes these lists due to low ownership. He will probably end up just off the top group again, yes, but he's consistent about it. Looks like he is averaging around 103 and has missed just 1 game over the last 4 years - much better stats than half that list.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2019&rt=LT&st=SU


2020:


2019:

 

[Under The Dome]

I like that one of the more consistently decent mids in Parker never makes these lists due to low ownership. He will probably end up just off the top group again, yes, but he's consistent about it. Looks like he is averaging around 103 and has missed just 1 game over the last 4 years - much better stats than half that list.

Was thinking of picking him for the durability, only missing 4 games in 8 years(1 in the last 5). Feels like he has been around forever and still just 28.

 

[pizza safety]

CBA courtesy of https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/
View attachment 25235


Ebert played predominantly in the forward line this season.

This is very good, and I forgot to say thank you. Cheers mate

 

[Connoisseur]

This is very good, and I forgot to say thank you. Cheers mate

My pleasure and no worries. Mentioned before that I would like to see Butters given a run with role, but with Hinkley at the helm it doesn’t seem very likely in the near future. Not interested at the current price range and think he is a better prospect for later in the season once we receive a better gauge of the midfield rotations and centre bounce attendances for Port. Not a high possession winner, so again he will be heavily dependent on the contested side and scoring involvements (5th in goal assists last season). Similar to Houston, prospective owners should temper expectations.

 

[Ironhawk]

Placing it here instead of in the General Discussion thread (for the time being) due to the higher traffic received.

https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/601846

https://exchange.telstra.com.au/were-evolving-the-way-we-deliver-live-afl-and-nrl-games/

Today we’re launching an exclusive offer for customers who have previously used the NRL or AFL Live Passes. Eligible customers will now receive a special offer from Telstra of $20/month off Kayo’s Basic subscription (usually $25/month) for 12 months – meaning you can enjoy all the sports you want with Kayo for just $5/month for 12 months.

If you’re a Telstra mobile customer, but haven’t watched AFL or NRL games on our apps before, we’re also offering $10/month off Kayo for you to get into the footy craze. With these exclusive offers, you’ll be able to catch the action from a line-up of more than 50 of the best international and domestic sports in 2021.

Things you need to know about the “$20/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra

• Offer available to eligible AFL or NRL Telstra Live Pass customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. To be eligible, customers must have redeemed a Telstra AFL or NRL Live Pass service prior to 22 Dec 2020 and maintain that active Telstra service used to redeem it.
• Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method. Eligible users will receive details of the offer via direct communication from Telstra with instructions on how to take up the offer through Telstra.
• Customers who have previously purchased an annual subscription to AFL Live Pass or NRL Live Pass will receive a partial refund, depending the term length remaining on their subscription.
• There is no change to Live Pass for the Netball Live Official App or My Football Live App as a result of this announcement

Things you need to know about the “$10/month off Kayo for 12 months on us” offer from Telstra for Telstra consumer customers

• Offer available to Telstra consumer customers. Must redeem by 31 May 2021. Must sign up through My Telstra. Kayo standard monthly fees (currently $25/mth for Kayo Basic) apply after offer period unless you change or cancel. One redemption per customer account. If you cancel, you cannot restart the offer. Not available in conjunction with any other Kayo offers. Not compatible with third party billing platforms. Telstra billing not available for existing Kayo subscribers on another payment method.

I thought this was a good deal at first, then I discovered the catch. Apparently the Live Pass won't be available any more, and this is their compensation for people who had it. So you end up paying $5/mth this year, then $25/mth next year for something that was free previously. Thanks Telstra. No more watching all matches for free.

Yes you get other sports too, so I guess there's some benefit to it, at least for 12 mths anyway, but it's not as good a deal as they make it out to be...

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I thought this was a good deal at first, then I discovered the catch. Apparently the Live Pass won't be available any more, and this is their compensation for people who had it. So you end up paying $5/mth this year, then $25/mth next year for something that was free previously. Thanks Telstra. No more watching all matches for free.

Yes you get other sports too, so I guess there's some benefit to it, at least for 12 mths anyway, but it's not as good a deal as they make it out to be...

It's all money. When the last of the free to air footy matches go it will be goodbye to football and the GFC for me.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Exactly

Add to the fact that if you have 2-4 of your bench rookies that vanish completely after 2-4 games and the $$$ dry up , more problems arise on how to upgrade to preferred premiums.

Be wonderful to have all 7 starting bench rookies (excluding VC/C 🍩) play 6-8 games at the start of the season each and increase in $$$ by $ 125-150k each.

Then at the same time your 7 onfield rookies/midpricers are also playing and making $$$ to make it easier to upgrade to preferred players.

Hard to find 15 starting keepers @ $ 500k each though.

Rookie stocks will be worse than ever when 50% of the draft pool hasnt played footy in 12 months, think we'll be forced into mid pricers this year.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I thought this was a good deal at first, then I discovered the catch. Apparently the Live Pass won't be available any more, and this is their compensation for people who had it. So you end up paying $5/mth this year, then $25/mth next year for something that was free previously. Thanks Telstra. No more watching all matches for free.

Yes you get other sports too, so I guess there's some benefit to it, at least for 12 mths anyway, but it's not as good a deal as they make it out to be...

I'd only sign up if you already use Kayo, saves you alot of money in 12 months in that situation, not worth it if you don't already use the service.

 

[Under The Dome]

North Melbourne midfielder Ben Cunnington is on track for a return to his best this season after his debilitating back injury last year.

The 29-year-old managed only three games last year as he battled a crippling back injury that also affected his quad muscles.

The best and fairest winner left a huge hole in the Roos' midfield, with the club plummeting to second-last on the ladder in a horror campaign.

But new North coach David Noble is set to have the tough ball-winner ready for round one, with Cunnington completing the pre-season without any hiccups.

"We're getting some really good loads into him at the moment so it's just about managing those knowing the history with his back. But so far, so good and he's been really good," Noble told AFL.com.au.

"He's hardly missed a session – the only ones he's missed are the sessions we've managed for him. But as an out and out person who wants to play footy he wants to be out there every session so that is a great sign in itself."

The Roos are pushing their midfielders to be more versatile this season, with Cunnington likely to spend more time in the forward line with the rotations per club cut by the AFL from 90 to 75 a game.

"With 75 rotations where do your midfielders go? Do they go forward, do they go half-back? Luke McDonald has played some inside midfield tagging roles, so what does that look like?" Noble said.

"Kyron Hayden came as a midfielder who has been playing back so does he now go back into a midfield rotation? What do we do with Ben Cunnington? Probably more forward. Jaidyn Stephenson has got great flexibility. Cam Zurhaar I'd like to get into the midfield a couple of times a quarter.

"I think what we've landed with is some really good flexibility that maybe hasn't been explored previously. But through necessity and limited rotations we're going to have to explore that."

North opens its home and away season against Port Adelaide but will play an AAMI Community Series clash with Hawthorn on March 6.
https://www.nmfc.com.au/news/856719/cunnington-back-in-business

 

[Merv Neagle]

Hi All
Participating in a SC Keepers league. Looking at forwards need your thoughts on who should I take between
Cam Raynor
Ben Ainsworth
Harry Mckay
Chad Wingard.
Thanks in advance.

 

[Merv Neagle]

Thanks for the help.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Thanks for the help.

Depends where your list is at, but for me...

Wingard > Rayner/Ainsworth > McKay

 

[Herbie66]

Rookie stocks will be worse than ever when 50% of the draft pool hasnt played footy in 12 months, think we'll be forced into mid pricers this year.

I just want my bench rookies to play 6+ games ASAP and make some meaningful $$$.

Makes the game a lot more enjoyable when you can do proper downgrades and then upgrade to your preferred players at the time instead of having to select "lesser" players due to $$$ restraints.

I certainly won't be locking any rookies in until Round 1 teams are announced , hard to guarantee any of them a game at this stage of the year.

Certainly seems a number of players in that $ 200-275k range that we might have to have up our sleeves just in case.