My personal projections at this point:
Below should be pretty clear but just in case...
Flawless season - Stays fit and has the best role for them, both these are huge factors for a lot of this list. For many of them, this is a very unrealistic outcome, for some it is not.
Expectation - Given the above this is basically a durability/role check.
Floor - Role/body fails them type scoring. Note this doesn't factor a season ending injury where you'd trade them but for some of these guys, that should be on the table.
Player - Flawless Season / Expectation / Floor
Dunkley - 120+ / 98-108 / 88 - Role & durability both are issues
Duncan - ~110 / 97-107 / 93 - Durability has been an issue, scores well in all roles but floats between better/worse ones
Taranto - ~110 / 82-98 / 82 - Role is a huge factor here
Hawkins - ~105 / 85-95 / 80 - Known quantity but expect more teammate impact this year
Stringer - 110+ / 85-105 / 70s - Role is a big question but he's enigmatic well beyond that, happy to react rather than start him
Martin - ~115 / 95-105 / 90 - Safe type, perfect role can score better but would be unexpected at this point
Wingard - ~110 / 85-100 / 78 - Role/durability major issues and scoring varies massively on both of those.
Greene - 130+ / 88-98 / 84 - He's not getting the flawless role but if he did, get him.
Dixon - Injured but just use his last 3 seasons and knock 10-20% of this worst season for the no preseason factor as the floor
McEvoy - ~105 / 80-95 / 75 - Sole ruck not likely, solid 2nd ruck scorer.
Treloar - ~115 / 90-105 / 85 - Durability a huge issue, don't expect that top role this year but hard to know how close he gets to it, also the durability is a major factor in last years average so even without the top role, he gets closer to the high end of his range if he stays fit.
English - ~110 / 80-95 / 85 - Depends on ruck time/share.
Sidebottom - ~105 / 85-95 / 80 - No idea on role but he scores in most.
Walker - Suspended, irrelevant, surely?
TMac - ~100 / 75-95 / 60 - Way too much can go wrong here based on his last 4 seasons.
De Goey - 115 / 80-110 / 80 - Durability and no idea on his role, hopefully that range will tighten considerably.
Buddy - Misses too many games, don't!
Bailey - ~110 / 80-95 / 80 - Would take injuries for him to get the role this year, imo.
Thomas - ~110 / 94-110 / 80 - I'm hoping to tighten this range also with more role/physique certainty.
Bolton - ~105 / 82-95 / 80 - Role questions again here, midfield I think he can score very well.
Graham - ~110 / 85-105 / 80 - I'm expecting him to make a full time midfield move this year but he might not, hence huge range.
Gray - Nope
Heeney - ~120 / 85-110 / 84 - Durability is the biggest concern, role is secondary. He's got the talent to be anything in the midfield in a pure role, expecting a more peripheral 4th mid/wing type role, should kick more goals from midfield like most elite midfielders that can play forward do (Martin, Bont and Petracca for example). If he stays relatively fit I think he's in the 95-110 range but him staying fit is enough of an issue to drop the range to factor that in.
Butters - ~110 / 82-110 / 82 - Have no feel on his role yet, hence huge range but pretty confident he improves on last year.
McKay - ~105 / 85-95 / 75 - Actually expecting big things from him this year.
Gulden - ~105 / 82-92 / 80 - Role will be huge here but a midfield role would make him very interesting.
"Likely" position change guys:
Fyfe - ~125 / 90-110 / 90 - No idea on role/fitness right now.
Zorko - ~115 / 90-110 / 90 - The more likely he is to get forward, the lower on that range he goes.
Boak - ~110 / 90-105 / 90 - Same as Zorko, someone has to share time with Rozee/Butters, he makes the most sense.
Danger - ~125 / 95-120 / 95 - Haven't actually heard anything on his fitness, if it's bad that low end probably drops to 90, again, lower range is the more likely he's a forward.
Greenwood - ~105 / 80-95 / 80 - I'm expecting he plays forward mostly for NM, which puts him in the middle of that range, full time forward is the low end. Durability also could be an issue.
Yeo - ~110 / 85-105 / 85 - Apparently already in doubt for round one, could be a guy who starts forward as he eases back and becomes a very viable pick in the round 12 position changes if that happens and he looks good.
Cripps - ~125 / 80 - 120 / 80 - Genuinely clueless here but he's absolutely on the lower end of the range if he gets forward.
Billings - ~115 / 80 - 95 / 80 - He's not getting that top role it would seem (inside mid) and the more likely he is to get forward the closer to that 80 he gets.
Marshall - ~115 / 95-110 / 90 - Another who the lower he goes on that range, the more likely he gets FWD, also one who is very dependent on the health of another player as well as his own shaky durability.
Below should be pretty clear but just in case...
Flawless season - Stays fit and has the best role for them, both these are huge factors for a lot of this list. For many of them, this is a very unrealistic outcome, for some it is not.
Expectation - Given the above this is basically a durability/role check.
Floor - Role/body fails them type scoring. Note this doesn't factor a season ending injury where you'd trade them but for some of these guys, that should be on the table.
Player - Flawless Season / Expectation / Floor
Dunkley - 120+ / 98-108 / 88 - Role & durability both are issues
Duncan - ~110 / 97-107 / 93 - Durability has been an issue, scores well in all roles but floats between better/worse ones
Taranto - ~110 / 82-98 / 82 - Role is a huge factor here
Hawkins - ~105 / 85-95 / 80 - Known quantity but expect more teammate impact this year
Stringer - 110+ / 85-105 / 70s - Role is a big question but he's enigmatic well beyond that, happy to react rather than start him
Martin - ~115 / 95-105 / 90 - Safe type, perfect role can score better but would be unexpected at this point
Wingard - ~110 / 85-100 / 78 - Role/durability major issues and scoring varies massively on both of those.
Greene - 130+ / 88-98 / 84 - He's not getting the flawless role but if he did, get him.
Dixon - Injured but just use his last 3 seasons and knock 10-20% of this worst season for the no preseason factor as the floor
McEvoy - ~105 / 80-95 / 75 - Sole ruck not likely, solid 2nd ruck scorer.
Treloar - ~115 / 90-105 / 85 - Durability a huge issue, don't expect that top role this year but hard to know how close he gets to it, also the durability is a major factor in last years average so even without the top role, he gets closer to the high end of his range if he stays fit.
English - ~110 / 80-95 / 85 - Depends on ruck time/share.
Sidebottom - ~105 / 85-95 / 80 - No idea on role but he scores in most.
Walker - Suspended, irrelevant, surely?
TMac - ~100 / 75-95 / 60 - Way too much can go wrong here based on his last 4 seasons.
De Goey - 115 / 80-110 / 80 - Durability and no idea on his role, hopefully that range will tighten considerably.
Buddy - Misses too many games, don't!
Bailey - ~110 / 80-95 / 80 - Would take injuries for him to get the role this year, imo.
Thomas - ~110 / 94-110 / 80 - I'm hoping to tighten this range also with more role/physique certainty.
Bolton - ~105 / 82-95 / 80 - Role questions again here, midfield I think he can score very well.
Graham - ~110 / 85-105 / 80 - I'm expecting him to make a full time midfield move this year but he might not, hence huge range.
Gray - Nope
Heeney - ~120 / 85-110 / 84 - Durability is the biggest concern, role is secondary. He's got the talent to be anything in the midfield in a pure role, expecting a more peripheral 4th mid/wing type role, should kick more goals from midfield like most elite midfielders that can play forward do (Martin, Bont and Petracca for example). If he stays relatively fit I think he's in the 95-110 range but him staying fit is enough of an issue to drop the range to factor that in.
Butters - ~110 / 82-110 / 82 - Have no feel on his role yet, hence huge range but pretty confident he improves on last year.
McKay - ~105 / 85-95 / 75 - Actually expecting big things from him this year.
Gulden - ~105 / 82-92 / 80 - Role will be huge here but a midfield role would make him very interesting.
"Likely" position change guys:
Fyfe - ~125 / 90-110 / 90 - No idea on role/fitness right now.
Zorko - ~115 / 90-110 / 90 - The more likely he is to get forward, the lower on that range he goes.
Boak - ~110 / 90-105 / 90 - Same as Zorko, someone has to share time with Rozee/Butters, he makes the most sense.
Danger - ~125 / 95-120 / 95 - Haven't actually heard anything on his fitness, if it's bad that low end probably drops to 90, again, lower range is the more likely he's a forward.
Greenwood - ~105 / 80-95 / 80 - I'm expecting he plays forward mostly for NM, which puts him in the middle of that range, full time forward is the low end. Durability also could be an issue.
Yeo - ~110 / 85-105 / 85 - Apparently already in doubt for round one, could be a guy who starts forward as he eases back and becomes a very viable pick in the round 12 position changes if that happens and he looks good.
Cripps - ~125 / 80 - 120 / 80 - Genuinely clueless here but he's absolutely on the lower end of the range if he gets forward.
Billings - ~115 / 80 - 95 / 80 - He's not getting that top role it would seem (inside mid) and the more likely he is to get forward the closer to that 80 he gets.
Marshall - ~115 / 95-110 / 90 - Another who the lower he goes on that range, the more likely he gets FWD, also one who is very dependent on the health of another player as well as his own shaky durability.
Think the forward line was already looking interesting (who does/who doesn't take the next step) even before they mentioned the new DPP assignments in season (fascinating to see who does and doesn't get it and if and when they do , Round 13 - > might be even more beneficial than Round 7 - >
I am very keen to start Dunkley , Duncan , Heeney , Coniglio & Curnow so hoping that's the right choice.
If I go heavy mid rookies to start (looks likely at this stage) , my focus will be probably on premium mid upgrades initially so can play the waiting game on some forward upgrades (fingers crossed)
Great insights
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