Position 2024: MIDFIELD DISCUSSION

[Darkie]

I'm going to exclude Daicos and drawing the line at Neale for my cutoff, which actually takes out a couple of my top answers!

1. Bont - Big call given his starting average but has progressed nicely to that range, most guys that go that far will hold for a couple of years. Ablett (7 years), Swan (4), Macrae (4), Pendles (4), Danger (3), Gawn (4) and Grundy (3). The majority actually improve after their jump towards 125+ as well. On top of that, durable, gets very favourable CD treatment and all that. FWIW, that same list is another ding on Oliver, he's at 4 right now on top of his whole o***eason thing. There's exceptions like Laird but it's rare for that 125+ guy to no longer be the top midfielder, Bont doesn't have that issue, most of the other collapses are injury related.

2. Gulden - I'm a huge fan and anyone who knows me is I'm generally pretty down on Swans players often to my own detriment when it comes to fantasy. He's special, except for maybe Daicos he's the closest thing I've seen to Ablett Jr and unlike both Ablett and Daicos, he actually tackles as well. My only concern is Horse, if he had a coach with a semblance of a brain, I'd be picking him despite the bye and I might still which should say a lot!

3. Green - Partly low bar compared to others, partly that I rate him really highly. Disposal will probably cap him towards the 120 range but he should push that this year. Like Gulden, the only reason he's not in my side is the bye and even then...

Petracca/Dunkley/Merrett the honourable mentions for mine.




Spot on. The more players missing, the weaker the coverage, the more points you leak. So round 15 you've got Dawson, Laird, Daicos, Bont, English, Sicily, Amon, Newcombe, Sinclair, Steele, Dusty, Shai, Taranto, Macrae, Rankine, Short and Marshall that all are possible pickups.

In comparison the Port/Freo bye is half that list.

Round 14/15 do have the advantage of being avoidable though but that's often a luxury position, especially by that late in the season.

This is interesting, thank you.

I have Gulden as one of the more likely names to drop off, largely because of his role and how abnormal his scoring was in light of that. I believe there was a stat Tweeted recently that there had only been c. 6-8 mids in 10+ years that had averaged 110 AF, with <40% CBAs … ie it’s very hard to do what Gulden has done without more centre bounces. More CBAs would normally be part of the bull case for someone at his stage, but his scoring actually didn’t improve with them last year (ave 99 SC when CBAs were >=50%, ceiling 120). Maybe I am underrating him, especially if he belongs in that GAJ/Daicos category!

I tend to agree that Bont doesn’t have a lot of apparent downside risk, other than injury and random role chabges (Bevo), but am wary in saying someone is a safe pick to back up their scoring at such an extreme level. Equally I am considering paying up for him on the basis that he seems pretty much a lock to be a top 8 mid and is a captain option, which is less true of many of his peers, and we need to spend the cash somewhere!

 

[aj74]

Yeah so anyway.... all this talk in the other threads about Heeney and Gaen is detracting from the crucial one:

Clarry Oliver.

What's needed to get him in your squad?

Nearest the pin for his lowest price?

Reckon his first half showed he was pretty well good to go. 2nd half proved that even he needs a preseason. So how long to build his tank adequately?

His game relies so much on his fitness. How often has he gone from good to great game in the last? It's not like he has to build his tank from scratch.

So maybe he only needs a month or so? Could be good after his bye maybe and if so, might be around 530k

 

[Gruffles]

Yeah so anyway.... all this talk in the other threads about Heeney and Gaen is detracting from the crucial one:

Clarry Oliver.

What's needed to get him in your squad?

Nearest the pin for his lowest price?

Reckon his first half showed he was pretty well good to go. 2nd half proved that even he needs a preseason. So how long to build his tank adequately?

His game relies so much on his fitness. How often has he gone from good to great game in the last? It's not like he has to build his tank from scratch.

So maybe he only needs a month or so? Could be good after his bye maybe and if so, might be around 530k

Let him get match fit for a month-6 weeks then jump on after his bye if he has turned a corner, is my thinking.

 

[aj74]

... and your bet for his low price?

 

[donnybuang]

... and your bet for his low price?

595k in round 9

 

[OnTopBar]

Yeah so anyway.... all this talk in the other threads about Heeney and Gaen is detracting from the crucial one:

Clarry Oliver.

What's needed to get him in your squad?

Nearest the pin for his lowest price?

Reckon his first half showed he was pretty well good to go. 2nd half proved that even he needs a preseason. So how long to build his tank adequately?

His game relies so much on his fitness. How often has he gone from good to great game in the last? It's not like he has to build his tank from scratch.

So maybe he only needs a month or so? Could be good after his bye maybe and if so, might be around 530k

Let him get match fit for a month-6 weeks then jump on after his bye if he has turned a corner, is my thinking.

Noice! And has the rnd 14 bye which suits me perfectly

 

[Santoz]

Yeah so anyway.... all this talk in the other threads about Heeney and Gaen is detracting from the crucial one:

Clarry Oliver.

What's needed to get him in your squad?

Nearest the pin for his lowest price?

Reckon his first half showed he was pretty well good to go. 2nd half proved that even he needs a preseason. So how long to build his tank adequately?

His game relies so much on his fitness. How often has he gone from good to great game in the last? It's not like he has to build his tank from scratch.

So maybe he only needs a month or so? Could be good after his bye maybe and if so, might be around 530k

I'm more thinking of Gulden after his bye with that juicy low score being in his price cycle, if only for a single cycle.

Currently 41% surprises me.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I'm more thinking of Gulden after his bye with that juicy low score being in his price cycle, if only for a single cycle.

Currently 41% surprises me.

Howes 3.7%................maybe everyone waits to trade or for the Sun H to tell them who to get.

 

[Buddy Starmart]

So with most of the core mids having a early bye could the ploy be to have hardly any mids and upgrade mainly in the mid line this season.

 

[Athomas]

Howes 3.7%................maybe everyone waits to trade or for the Sun H to tell them who to get.

Yeah ownership % can't be too relevant if he's still 3.7%

Personally I don't update my team throughout pre-season / Round 0 so yeah will be lots of updates come next week

 

[All is Wells]

Ownership % is locked at the start of the round and is updated at the end of it. Confirmed by Tim Michell on twitter

 

[wogitalia]

This is interesting, thank you.

I have Gulden as one of the more likely names to drop off, largely because of his role and how abnormal his scoring was in light of that. I believe there was a stat Tweeted recently that there had only been c. 6-8 mids in 10+ years that had averaged 110 AF, with <40% CBAs … ie it’s very hard to do what Gulden has done without more centre bounces. More CBAs would normally be part of the bull case for someone at his stage, but his scoring actually didn’t improve with them last year (ave 99 SC when CBAs were >=50%, ceiling 120). Maybe I am underrating him, especially if he belongs in that GAJ/Daicos category!

I tend to agree that Bont doesn’t have a lot of apparent downside risk, other than injury and random role chabges (Bevo), but am wary in saying someone is a safe pick to back up their scoring at such an extreme level. Equally I am considering paying up for him on the basis that he seems pretty much a lock to be a top 8 mid and is a captain option, which is less true of many of his peers, and we need to spend the cash somewhere!

Post the game, I'd probably change the Gulden answer I didn't really anticipate we'd use Heeney that heavily but it was nice we did. The other names going through instead of Gulden definitely hurt though!

Yeah so anyway.... all this talk in the other threads about Heeney and Gaen is detracting from the crucial one:

Clarry Oliver.

What's needed to get him in your squad?

Nearest the pin for his lowest price?

Reckon his first half showed he was pretty well good to go. 2nd half proved that even he needs a preseason. So how long to build his tank adequately?

His game relies so much on his fitness. How often has he gone from good to great game in the last? It's not like he has to build his tank from scratch.

So maybe he only needs a month or so? Could be good after his bye maybe and if so, might be around 530k

Honestly, for mine the only thing that could put Oliver in my team is if the AFL cancelled the early byes.

I'm sticking to my very simple rule, if you've got an extra bye I need to be confident that you're at least 10 points underpriced. Oliver would need to have his career best season after an interesting and less than ideal preseason to qualify for that.

I'm finding it increasingly difficult to pass up on the value mids this year, partly because the premiums are pretty much either bye round guys or guys with question marks all over them and partly because I'm finding a couple of extra premiums really stacks up on my projections due to the best 18 factor for the first 6 weeks by which point you're looping the rookies and starting to get them off the field anyway and will have the position changes to fix them as well.

 

[aj74]

First up, Wogi - the place hasn't been the same without ya. It's been real good to read your content again so thanks for coming back. Hopefully you stay a while

I think it's understood the Oliver is too toxic as a starting pick at his price, with his bye and preseason. But at some stage after the bye, none of those factors will exist anymore. Well ya know... hopefully the lifestyle stuff is sorted. I know that can be hard to shake

But he will have had maybe another 6 weeks to build into the year, the bye will be gone and we could/should be looking a sub 600k proposition that would easily be good for 110+ for the rest of the year.

 

[wogitalia]

First up, Wogi - the place hasn't been the same without ya. It's been real good to read your content again so thanks for coming back. Hopefully you stay a while

I think it's understood the Oliver is too toxic as a starting pick at his price, with his bye and preseason. But at some stage after the bye, none of those factors will exist anymore. Well ya know... hopefully the lifestyle stuff is sorted. I know that can be hard to shake

But he will have had maybe another 6 weeks to build into the year, the bye will be gone and we could/should be looking a sub 600k proposition that would easily be good for 110+ for the rest of the year.

No doubt, top of the list as an upgrade target but no interest as a starting pick for me, too many questions. Worst case paying the same amount as now.

 

[Leroy]

If you had to pick two of Butters, Rozee, Brayshaw, Serong or LDU, who do you take?

Before the pre-season games I was solid on Butters and Brayshaw with LDU set to replace either one.

Brayshaw looked even more outside (if that was possible); Butters went down like a twig in a breeze on that ankle; LDU just cruised; Rozee possibly too forward?

So maybe Serong and LDU make the cut for R1?

 

[wogitalia]

If you had to pick two of Butters, Rozee, Brayshaw, Serong or LDU, who do you take?

Before the pre-season games I was solid on Butters and Brayshaw with LDU set to replace either one.

Brayshaw looked even more outside (if that was possible); Butters went down like a twig in a breeze on that ankle; LDU just cruised; Rozee possibly too forward?

So maybe Serong and LDU make the cut for R1?

LDU is highest risk/reward. I don't like injuries going into round 1, so Butters would be 2nd last. Brayshaw is last for mine, he's a pure accumulater with two guys moving into the midfield that might push him even more outside and he's not a good ball user, he's elite for DT formats still but always hard to go further with that profile. I like Rozee a bit more than Serong just because of speed and goal kicking skills that allow more damage on touches but Serong it's a coin flip.

To be clear, you're splitting hairs on this group. Butters if he's fit has extreme upside but I'd like to see him prove it first.

 

[Leroy]

LDU is highest risk/reward. I don't like injuries going into round 1, so Butters would be 2nd last. Brayshaw is last for mine, he's a pure accumulater with two guys moving into the midfield that might push him even more outside and he's not a good ball user, he's elite for DT formats still but always hard to go further with that profile. I like Rozee a bit more than Serong just because of speed and goal kicking skills that allow more damage on touches but Serong it's a coin flip.

To be clear, you're splitting hairs on this group. Butters if he's fit has extreme upside but I'd like to see him prove it first.

That's kind of where I landed as well.

LDU and Butters for the upside; but a query on Butters immediate fitness.

Rozee and Serong coin flip, Brayshaw bottom.

Excellent insight, thank you for responding 👍

 

[Shannon]

Has attended the last 2 training sessions & looked fine - just a rolled ankle it seems.

 

[Zimmer]

View attachment 69002

Has attended the last 2 training sessions & looked fine - just a rolled ankle it seems.

Still get jumpy starting players with injury no matter how innocuous it sounds. He's still in my team at them moment...

 

[Zimmer]

First up, Wogi - the place hasn't been the same without ya. It's been real good to read your content again so thanks for coming back. Hopefully you stay a while

Where have you been @wogitalia?