Position 2024: MIDFIELD DISCUSSION
- Thread starter KLo30
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Thought I'd add another post here because I don't know where else to put it.
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
- #3 in clearances per game, #1 for centre clearances per game in 2023
- #9 in clearances per game, #9 for centre clearances per game in 2022
- #3 in clearances per game, #2 for centre clearances per game in 2021
- When you consider Parish, you should compare him with other inside mids (e.g. Libba, Cripps, Oliver) and not outside mids because he looks short / skinny.
- I've seen some discussion that Parish will be phased out of the mids with Hobbs, Perkins etc to come in. To put it nicely, this is rubbish. While the young guys are promising, Parish has already established himself as one of the best inside ball-winning mids in the game. The young guys have a lot to improve if they want to eclipse him in CB attendances.
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
- He doesn't kick goals. Sorry. Most mids other than Bont / Petracca don't kick them anyway, so I'm not sure this is a big flaw.
- Parish is a hard runner and has high metres gained compared to other inside mids.
- Parish has the Rd 14 bye - which skips all the Rd 0-6 shenanigans so it's probably a plus.
- Parish likely won't get tagged. Merrett is still a better and more damaging player. Then again, if you pick Parish you hope he'd improve, which may put him above Merrett .
- Parish's TOG feels a bit low. His rotations are also quite specific; he plays a lot in the 1st quarter and sits a huge amount in the 2nd. This is stressful when he's your main POD and you feel like Brad Scott is deliberately sabotaging your SC team. In multiple games I had Parish on 40+ around QT and he'd end up with a middling 105 score.
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Thought I'd add another post here because I don't know where else to put it.
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
- #3 in clearances per game, #1 for centre clearances per game in 2023
- #9 in clearances per game, #9 for centre clearances per game in 2022
- #3 in clearances per game, #2 for centre clearances per game in 2021
- When you consider Parish, you should compare him with other inside mids (e.g. Libba, Cripps, Oliver) and not outside mids because he looks short / skinny.
- I've seen some discussion that Parish will be phased out of the mids with Hobbs, Perkins etc to come in. To put it nicely, this is rubbish. While the young guys are promising, Parish has already established himself as one of the best inside ball-winning mids in the game. The young guys have a lot to improve if they want to eclipse him in CB attendances.
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
- He doesn't kick goals. Sorry. Most mids other than Bont / Petracca don't kick them anyway, so I'm not sure this is a big flaw.
- Parish is a hard runner and has high metres gained compared to other inside mids.
- Parish has the Rd 14 bye - which skips all the Rd 0-6 shenanigans so it's probably a plus.
- Parish likely won't get tagged. Merrett is still a better and more damaging player. Then again, if you pick Parish you hope he'd improve, which may put him above Merrett .
- Parish's TOG feels a bit low. His rotations are also quite specific; he plays a lot in the 1st quarter and sits a huge amount in the 2nd. This is stressful when he's your main POD and you feel like Brad Scott is deliberately sabotaging your SC team. In multiple games I had Parish on 40+ around QT and he'd end up with a middling 105 score.
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
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Thought I'd add another post here because I don't know where else to put it.
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
- #3 in clearances per game, #1 for centre clearances per game in 2023
- #9 in clearances per game, #9 for centre clearances per game in 2022
- #3 in clearances per game, #2 for centre clearances per game in 2021
- When you consider Parish, you should compare him with other inside mids (e.g. Libba, Cripps, Oliver) and not outside mids because he looks short / skinny.
- I've seen some discussion that Parish will be phased out of the mids with Hobbs, Perkins etc to come in. To put it nicely, this is rubbish. While the young guys are promising, Parish has already established himself as one of the best inside ball-winning mids in the game. The young guys have a lot to improve if they want to eclipse him in CB attendances.
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
- He doesn't kick goals. Sorry. Most mids other than Bont / Petracca don't kick them anyway, so I'm not sure this is a big flaw.
- Parish is a hard runner and has high metres gained compared to other inside mids.
- Parish has the Rd 14 bye - which skips all the Rd 0-6 shenanigans so it's probably a plus.
- Parish likely won't get tagged. Merrett is still a better and more damaging player. Then again, if you pick Parish you hope he'd improve, which may put him above Merrett .
- Parish's TOG feels a bit low. His rotations are also quite specific; he plays a lot in the 1st quarter and sits a huge amount in the 2nd. This is stressful when he's your main POD and you feel like Brad Scott is deliberately sabotaging your SC team. In multiple games I had Parish on 40+ around QT and he'd end up with a middling 105 score.
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Im really struggling picking mid players in the midfield at 600k+. There seems to be so much more mouths to feed at Adelaide, fremantle, port.... i think bont is a lock and the other rwo i really like have a bye in green and gulden.
Anyone else seem to be in too minds. Considering loading up in cheaper options seem like there is more value there. In the 450-550k. Miller, steele, newcomb, martin, crouch wines even holmes....
Anyone else seem to be in too minds. Considering loading up in cheaper options seem like there is more value there. In the 450-550k. Miller, steele, newcomb, martin, crouch wines even holmes....
Only 2 reasons for me not running Dawson.
Firstly, I think he's likely at or near his top price. That's all fine and good but with Crouch coming back into the rotation, there's a decent chance that he will drop off. At least, I'm comfortable with the odds of him not getting away from us.
Secondly, I don't know who to drop. I'm running Brayshaw, Rozee, Miller, Steele and Holmes - clearly a value strategy. With 111k itb, I can afford to upgrade one of a couple of them - any of them if I downgrade a rookie or two to a basement pick.
So Dawson, I just gotta let go for now. He's high on the watchlist though. Here's hoping he can drop one of those 80s well before he puts in another 170
Firstly, I think he's likely at or near his top price. That's all fine and good but with Crouch coming back into the rotation, there's a decent chance that he will drop off. At least, I'm comfortable with the odds of him not getting away from us.
Secondly, I don't know who to drop. I'm running Brayshaw, Rozee, Miller, Steele and Holmes - clearly a value strategy. With 111k itb, I can afford to upgrade one of a couple of them - any of them if I downgrade a rookie or two to a basement pick.
So Dawson, I just gotta let go for now. He's high on the watchlist though. Here's hoping he can drop one of those 80s well before he puts in another 170
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That's true and IIRC Laird went up. The thing I'm conscious of here is that this season it looks like Laird may have reduced CBAs and was playing forward at times I believe.
I've got Dawson, he's at the age where he should maintain or have upside where Laird is probably entering the other side of the curve.
I agree, I'm really struggling to confidently pick premium miss with no early bye apart from the Bont.
I've got Dawson, he's at the age where he should maintain or have upside where Laird is probably entering the other side of the curve.
I agree, I'm really struggling to confidently pick premium miss with no early bye apart from the Bont.
No premium history, the losing the priority position factor (which shouldn't be a thing but definitely is), poor finish to last year, Crouch/Berry factor, team that seems more liklely to be bad than good, you've gone as a positive, but personally think the r15 bye is actually a big negative because of the 4 and 2 team byes available and also because of the teams and premiums sharing it.
Like basically the entire top tier this year, there's a very good against narrative.
You've nailed the for case which is equally good, fwiw and I really like the pick so I'm definitely playing devil's advocate here.
Like every season, good chance about 5 of the top 10 will fall out, avoiding them is perhaps the biggest step towards winning it all above anything else as it's such a small field that almost everyone is picking from and so much of your starting capital and most teams will have somewhere between 2-4 of them.
Like basically the entire top tier this year, there's a very good against narrative.
You've nailed the for case which is equally good, fwiw and I really like the pick so I'm definitely playing devil's advocate here.
Like every season, good chance about 5 of the top 10 will fall out, avoiding them is perhaps the biggest step towards winning it all above anything else as it's such a small field that almost everyone is picking from and so much of your starting capital and most teams will have somewhere between 2-4 of them.
Yes that's it.
Say you want 20 playing players through each round of the mid-season byes (at least).
In R12 that allows you up to 2.5 players out per AFL team having a bye. In R13 it's 5 each from Port and Freo if you want.
In R14 and R15 you're only allowed 1.6 players out per team having the bye, placing more restriction on who you can pick from those teams.
eg. Bont, Libba, English, Daicos, Laird and Dawson all have the R15 bye.
Say you want 20 playing players through each round of the mid-season byes (at least).
In R12 that allows you up to 2.5 players out per AFL team having a bye. In R13 it's 5 each from Port and Freo if you want.
In R14 and R15 you're only allowed 1.6 players out per team having the bye, placing more restriction on who you can pick from those teams.
eg. Bont, Libba, English, Daicos, Laird and Dawson all have the R15 bye.
I reckon if you can get to 15 available premos in rounds 14 and 15, you should be golden. 3 or 4 of your best remaining MPs or rookies and you should go well, even in leagues - especially so with all the marquee names that will be missing.
Gotta balance that out though against those names being available, potentially against you, in the lead up rounds.
And it's little use having 18 available if 10 of them are rookies. Not so bad for overall since other weeks will have those missing premos but it will kill you in leagues.
Gotta balance that out though against those names being available, potentially against you, in the lead up rounds.
And it's little use having 18 available if 10 of them are rookies. Not so bad for overall since other weeks will have those missing premos but it will kill you in leagues.
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Thought I'd add another post here because I don't know where else to put it.
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
Darcy Parish player analysis
I saw that Parish is getting a bit more popular (~5% ownership now, was probably 0.5% at the start of preseason) with quite a few mentions in this forum too. As an Essendon supporter who had Parish as my main POD* all of last year, I hope I can provide a few thoughts that may be of value ...
*If you look at my post history, I'm pretty sure I have a very high ratio of Parish rants in my summaries last year.
Scoring history
This is Parish's SC scoring history:
View attachment 68633
But he only made the midfield switch in 2021 after Rd 3 when Shiel got injured. So he's averaged 108-114 in all of his 'good' years -- pretty solid and worthy of genuine premo consideration. If you specifically take 2021 from Rd 3 onwards and include his finals game, Parish actually averaged 120.4 over 21 rounds!
Parish can go absolutely huge (scores of 190, 169, 166, 162) although these were all in 2021. Over the past 2 years his top score is 142, which is slightly disappointing for a big $600k+ premo. The flipside is that he's super consistent and only had 3 sub-90 scores in the past two years (one of which was where he got injured).
Disposal and game style
Parish's best skill is his ball-winning ability, averaging 30+ disposals in all of the past three years and top 5 by disposals per game average in 2022 and 2023.
Parish is only 180cm/81kg so you may think he's an outside ball winner. While he does a lot of hard running and gets handball receives, his main game is actually as an inside contested ball winner.
Parish by all the stats is one of the best clearance players in the AFL, ranking:
- #3 in clearances per game, #1 for centre clearances per game in 2023
- #9 in clearances per game, #9 for centre clearances per game in 2022
- #3 in clearances per game, #2 for centre clearances per game in 2021
- When you consider Parish, you should compare him with other inside mids (e.g. Libba, Cripps, Oliver) and not outside mids because he looks short / skinny.
- I've seen some discussion that Parish will be phased out of the mids with Hobbs, Perkins etc to come in. To put it nicely, this is rubbish. While the young guys are promising, Parish has already established himself as one of the best inside ball-winning mids in the game. The young guys have a lot to improve if they want to eclipse him in CB attendances.
SC is all about effective disposals (you get 0 for an ineffective disposal and lose points for a clanger). This is where Parish leaves a bit to be desired. His overall DE% is 68.8% which isn't great, but doesn't stand out compared to a lot of his contested ball-winning friends (Neale and Cripps are higher, but surprisingly all of Bont, Tom Green, Serong and Oliver are lower).
However, the eye test as a tragic Essendon fan tells a bit of a deeper story. Parish has a very bad habit of making 3-5 baffling decisions a game where he kicks to nobody and it gets intercepted. Qualitatively, his handballing ability is also a bit less clean than the likes of Neale, Cripps, Bont etc who can all hit extremely difficult handballs under pressure. Parish's handballs are sometimes off and don't release the other player into space.
Overall, Parish was #3 for disposals per game in 2023 and only #8 for effective disposals. Which tells you he can still improve his disposal ability quite a bit. This is especially stark because he plays next to Merrett, who's one of the best ball users in the AFL.
There's also a silver lining in this flaw. When you pick Parish, you are pretty safely assured of a mid role. Parish's average disposal means he can't operate well at half-forward or half-back. This compares well to players like Brayshaw / Serong, who I'm afraid of because I don't know how they fit in when Fyfe and Young take up some midfield minutes. It's also better than his mate in Merrett who was used across half-back some of last year. Despite this, Merrett was good enough that he did well in those minutes anyway.
If Parish cleans up his ball use, I firmly believe he's one of the best SC picks in the game.
Tackles
This is the other major flaw in Parish's game. Inside mids like Laird, Rowell, Cripps, Libba, Oliver, Dunkley etc are all fierce tacklers. Unfortunately, Parish only had 4.3 tackles per game in 2023 and ranked a miserable #78, about a full 4 tackles off Rowell at #1. Tackles get you 4 points so he's missing out on 16 ppg right there.
This was also quite bad at the start of the year, but luckily Parish's intensity picked up. It seemed like he was also doing it a bit more in preseason this year but he also only picked up one tackle against Geelong, so what can you say
According to some other random stat I remember seeing, Parish's pressure acts are reasonably high as he prefers to corral rather than tackle. Unfortunately for us, only tackles get you SC points!!! So please Mr Parish, think of your SC coaches next time you choose to corral.
If Parish tackles more, he can also raise his average significantly and become an absolute SC jet.
Durability
Forget everything else, this is Parish's biggest flaw. He missed 6 and 5 games in the previous two years, which wiped out about 35% of his game compared to other players who play every game. Pre-injury, he was great in 2022 (118 before, 105.5 after) and it didn't seem to change much in 2023 (107 before, 109 after).
Worse, Parish's 2023 injury was a calf strain that was done during training. I can't believe it's a good sign when you get injured for 5+ weeks off a training session.
See all those ranks in the clearances section? They're all per game because Parish is a lot lower by total stats because he's missed so much time. If you do pick Parish, you're really hoping his body holds up and you don't need to waste a trade to get him out.
Other notes
Here are some other interesting, hopefully SC-relevant tidbits about Parish:
- He doesn't kick goals. Sorry. Most mids other than Bont / Petracca don't kick them anyway, so I'm not sure this is a big flaw.
- Parish is a hard runner and has high metres gained compared to other inside mids.
- Parish has the Rd 14 bye - which skips all the Rd 0-6 shenanigans so it's probably a plus.
- Parish likely won't get tagged. Merrett is still a better and more damaging player. Then again, if you pick Parish you hope he'd improve, which may put him above Merrett .
- Parish's TOG feels a bit low. His rotations are also quite specific; he plays a lot in the 1st quarter and sits a huge amount in the 2nd. This is stressful when he's your main POD and you feel like Brad Scott is deliberately sabotaging your SC team. In multiple games I had Parish on 40+ around QT and he'd end up with a middling 105 score.
Those are really the main points -- amazing ball winner who has a history of scoring well; poor durability; below expected efficiency; lazy tackler. That looks like a lot of cons, but he's hit genuine premo scores without doing well in those things. Imagine what he'd do if he can even marginally improve them! He may even be able to hit the mythical 120+ barrier over an official season.
Overall, I'd consider Parish a somewhat risky selection based on his injury history. He is also a high upside pick -- his ceiling is huge with four 160+ scores in 2021. That was also the year he won pretty much every medal possible (vs Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong) so he plays well in all the big games. (His other 160+ was 169 against the Bulldogs in the final.)
Anyway, that was a lot longer than I expected, but I hope this helps you decide on whether you want Parish!
I'm going to exclude Daicos and drawing the line at Neale for my cutoff, which actually takes out a couple of my top answers!
1. Bont - Big call given his starting average but has progressed nicely to that range, most guys that go that far will hold for a couple of years. Ablett (7 years), Swan (4), Macrae (4), Pendles (4), Danger (3), Gawn (4) and Grundy (3). The majority actually improve after their jump towards 125+ as well. On top of that, durable, gets very favourable CD treatment and all that. FWIW, that same list is another ding on Oliver, he's at 4 right now on top of his whole o***eason thing. There's exceptions like Laird but it's rare for that 125+ guy to no longer be the top midfielder, Bont doesn't have that issue, most of the other collapses are injury related.
2. Gulden - I'm a huge fan and anyone who knows me is I'm generally pretty down on Swans players often to my own detriment when it comes to fantasy. He's special, except for maybe Daicos he's the closest thing I've seen to Ablett Jr and unlike both Ablett and Daicos, he actually tackles as well. My only concern is Horse, if he had a coach with a semblance of a brain, I'd be picking him despite the bye and I might still which should say a lot!
3. Green - Partly low bar compared to others, partly that I rate him really highly. Disposal will probably cap him towards the 120 range but he should push that this year. Like Gulden, the only reason he's not in my side is the bye and even then...
Petracca/Dunkley/Merrett the honourable mentions for mine.
Spot on. The more players missing, the weaker the coverage, the more points you leak. So round 15 you've got Dawson, Laird, Daicos, Bont, English, Sicily, Amon, Newcombe, Sinclair, Steele, Dusty, Shai, Taranto, Macrae, Rankine, Short and Marshall that all are possible pickups.
In comparison the Port/Freo bye is half that list.
Round 14/15 do have the advantage of being avoidable though but that's often a luxury position, especially by that late in the season.
1. Bont - Big call given his starting average but has progressed nicely to that range, most guys that go that far will hold for a couple of years. Ablett (7 years), Swan (4), Macrae (4), Pendles (4), Danger (3), Gawn (4) and Grundy (3). The majority actually improve after their jump towards 125+ as well. On top of that, durable, gets very favourable CD treatment and all that. FWIW, that same list is another ding on Oliver, he's at 4 right now on top of his whole o***eason thing. There's exceptions like Laird but it's rare for that 125+ guy to no longer be the top midfielder, Bont doesn't have that issue, most of the other collapses are injury related.
2. Gulden - I'm a huge fan and anyone who knows me is I'm generally pretty down on Swans players often to my own detriment when it comes to fantasy. He's special, except for maybe Daicos he's the closest thing I've seen to Ablett Jr and unlike both Ablett and Daicos, he actually tackles as well. My only concern is Horse, if he had a coach with a semblance of a brain, I'd be picking him despite the bye and I might still which should say a lot!
3. Green - Partly low bar compared to others, partly that I rate him really highly. Disposal will probably cap him towards the 120 range but he should push that this year. Like Gulden, the only reason he's not in my side is the bye and even then...
Petracca/Dunkley/Merrett the honourable mentions for mine.
Spot on. The more players missing, the weaker the coverage, the more points you leak. So round 15 you've got Dawson, Laird, Daicos, Bont, English, Sicily, Amon, Newcombe, Sinclair, Steele, Dusty, Shai, Taranto, Macrae, Rankine, Short and Marshall that all are possible pickups.
In comparison the Port/Freo bye is half that list.
Round 14/15 do have the advantage of being avoidable though but that's often a luxury position, especially by that late in the season.
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The above was posted in the "How do I pick my captain?" thread by @Locky27. It shows number of 130+ scores against all teams by position.
What I find interesting about the table is that Green (current ownership 28%, so third-most popular premium mid) has as his first 3 opponents:
- Collingwood (statistically the worst team for an inside mid to score 130+ against)
- North Melbourne (statistically the best team for an inside mid to score 130+ against)
- West Coast (statistically the second best team for an inside mid to score 130+ against)
- Green's last 3 scores versus Collingwood: 95, 97, 92 (average 94.7)
- Green's last 3 scores versus North Melbourne: 77, 117, 60 (average 84.7)
He then has West Coast - a little better, but no monsters:
- Green's last 3 scores versus West Coast: 106, 102, 123 (average 110.3)
Then of course he has a Rd 3 bye, followed by Gold Coast (has only played them twice - 147 and 92 for an average of 119.5).
So what I'm wondering is: what will the effect of Green's score against the Pies on Saturday night be?
If he scores his average of 95, is that explained away as "oh yes, but Collingwood is notoriously difficult for an inside mid to score big against, I'm still picking Green to beat up against the minnows in Rds 1 and 2" even though he's never really beat up on them before? (Yes I acknowledge that North will be without Thomas or Simpkin.) Or does it plant a seed of doubt?
Alternatively, if he's able to monster the Pies, does that put beyond doubt that he will necessarily destroy North and West Coast in successive weeks to justify picking him despite his Rd 3 bye?
I rate Green and I'm sure he will go up another level this year, but I'm struggling to see how that makes him worthwhile to take for Rd 1 when he can be targeted as a first upgrade.
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I'd need something special.
For mine, I need the double by guys to have me comfortable that they're at least 10 points underpriced or be named Nick Daicos. Green and Gulden are the two guys not on that list that I want to add. Gulden I need to see a pure midfield role, very limited wing (if he doesn't get it without Mills, Parker and Adams, it's not happening), Green I really want to see better ball use as much as possible and a powerful showing.
Miller, Heeney, Flanders, Himmelberg, Salem, Coleman, Williams, Petracca, Oliver, Cripps, Hopper, Jordon, Grundy, Billings and Gawn are the other names I'm keeping a pretty close eye on or already have in and looking for very strong reasons to doubt it.
For mine, I need the double by guys to have me comfortable that they're at least 10 points underpriced or be named Nick Daicos. Green and Gulden are the two guys not on that list that I want to add. Gulden I need to see a pure midfield role, very limited wing (if he doesn't get it without Mills, Parker and Adams, it's not happening), Green I really want to see better ball use as much as possible and a powerful showing.
Miller, Heeney, Flanders, Himmelberg, Salem, Coleman, Williams, Petracca, Oliver, Cripps, Hopper, Jordon, Grundy, Billings and Gawn are the other names I'm keeping a pretty close eye on or already have in and looking for very strong reasons to doubt it.