SuperCoach Analysis: Premium Forwards
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PATRICK DANGERFIELD | GEELONG CATS | $660,500 | 121 avg in 2018. | FWD / MID
Over $100,000 more expensive than the second-highest-priced forward, the fact that Patrick Dangerfield is considered a midfielder / forward once more in SuperCoach is an absolute gift. He spent on average 37% game time forward (Champion Data have a 35% threshold when assigning positions) last year, averaging 28 disposals and kicking 24 goals. Dangerfield also ranked fifth in score involvements and goal assists, sixth for contested possessions per game and inside 50’s, and also ranked in the top 20 for clearances and disposals per game. While his 2018 output was slightly down on his 2017 average of 136, Dangerfield topped the SuperCoach ton in every game bar two - both which were scores of 94. However, he went above 125 on nine occasions, of which three of those scores were 150+. Not only are you getting a midfielder in a forward position, you’re also getting an automatic captain option each week, for there isn’t another player in the game that mixes durability and elite SuperCoach scoring quite like Dangerfield. Not since 2011 has Dangerfield averaged below 100 SuperCoach points a season. In fact, you’d need to go as far back to his debut season in 2008 to find the last time he played less than 19 games in a season. Lock him in and throw away the key. A must start for any serious SuperCoach team.
TOM HAWKINS | GEELONG CATS | $552,900 | 101 avg.
Some might be surprised by Hawkins’ place here, but the big Cat turned back the clock with his most complete season to date in SuperCoach, averaging over 100 SuperCoach points for the first time in his career. He came home with a wet sail, saluting with SuperCoach centuries in eight of the final 12 games of the home and away season, and finished the year ranking second overall for marks inside 50, third for score involvements and goal assists, and fourth for goals per game. But is he worth starting? History suggests he won’t repeat his 2018 output, and at his price point, he’d be a very unique selection as a starter. Wait and see if his form can come close to emulating last years output as Hawkins is priced right at his peak and value could be found elsewhere in another midfielder / forward.
JUSTIN WESTHOFF | PORT ADELAIDE POWER | $549,500 | 101 Avg. |RUC / FWD
Just how valuable is ‘The Hoff’ in SuperCoach with the arrival of Premiership-winning Eagle Scott Lycett? Many SuperCoach fans have had Westhoff as a staple of their starting sides for years, as the big man has juggled duties in the ruck and up forward but can also play through the midfield on a wing as well as providing a chop-out down back. But with him, Lycett, and Paddy Ryder all sharing the same ground, it could impact his scoring ability. 2018 was the first year that Westhoff averaged triple digits, which was impressive considering he only scored over 100 in just ten games. The bulk of his scoring has naturally been within the margins of 80-99, but with half of his SuperCoach tons coming in at120 points or more it drove his overall average up. You’d need to be brave to confidently start Westhoff. Wait for the preseason games to commence before making a call.
LANCE FRANKLIN | SYDNEY SWANS | $543,500 | 100 avg.
We all know what ‘Buddy’ is capable of delivering in SuperCoach; his ceiling is almost uncapped in this game. However, 2018 was the first year since his Hawthorn days where he had a 100-point average - outstanding considering he played 18 games and had been carrying a heel injury since Round 1. John Longmire publicly announced he had “probably trained about 20 minutes for the season” back in June, which all but sums up just how good Franklin is. With two scores above 170 points last year, and another six games above the 100-point mark, Buddy will again feature heavily in many SuperCoach teams, particularly since he has declared himself fit and ready for 2019 with his injuries behind him.
SAM MENEGOLA | GEELONG CATS | $543,100 | 100 Avg. | FWD / MID
The dynamic Cat has averaged triple figures in his last two seasons and will be suiting up for more of the same in 2019, making him a value selection as the fifth-most expensive forward in 2019. Maintaining his DPP status, Menegola scored 100 SuperCoach points or more in 13 of his 22 games last year with six of those games 120 or better. The downside to Menegola is that his average could be substantially higher if it weren’t for seven games where he scored under 80 SuperCoach points, which dragged down his overall average. Having arrived at the Cats as a mature-age selection three seasons ago, his numbers and SuperCoach output have been identified and it’s hard to believe he is entering just his fourth year inside the AFL system. Unstoppable when he gets up and going, Menegola could average 10-15 points better a game this year and really bump his game to a new level. Great POD if you’re happy to run him and Dangerfield together - and trust me, Menegola will be overlooked purely on that basis.
DEVON SMITH | ESSENDON BOMBERS | $531,100 | 98 Avg. | FWD / MID
The first-year Bomber made a fist of it at his new club after crossing from the Giants, winning the Best and Fairest after a stellar season that saw him ranked No.1 in the competition for tackles. Proving size is no barrier, Smith was a revelation at the Dons, splitting his time between the forward 50 and centre square where he bettered his 2017 SuperCoach average by 20 points. There’s no reason why he cannot bump up his output to three digits this season, particularly as he averaged 107 SuperCoach points in the last eight games of the year. Having played every game last year, Smith had 11 games where he scored over 100 SuperCoach points and four games in which he went 120+. Should be considered a must-start with dual position status and a Bombers line-up that should push for finals in 2019.
TOM MCDONALD | MELBOURNE DEMONS | 97.6 Avg. | $529,800
Loses his dual-position status as a forward / defender this year after being the Demons’ dominate big-man up forward last season, Tom McDonald would be a unique selection at this price point, minus last year’s DPP. McDonald came flying out of the blocks in the opening seven games, averaging a whopping 113 points after a more permanent switch to the Dees’ forward line. But as he carried a toe injury, his form dialled back his scoring output. With Jesse Hogan’s departure, it’s likely McDonald now becomes the first-choice option up forward, with Brayden Preuss and Sam Weideman to face off for Hogan’s vacant position whilst providing a chop-out to Gawn in the ruck - as it stands, you’d need to be brave to consider McDonald a certain starter given he is priced at his ceiling. Watch for the preseason - he could be a very hand POD.
ISAAC HEENEY | SYDNEY SWANS | $529,200 | 97 Avg. | FWD / MID
Isaac Heeney is only getting better after averaging 97 points for the last two seasons. With eight SuperCoach tons in 2017 backed up by another ten last year, Heeney’s role saw him skewed slightly more forward with Lance Franklin’s injury and fluctuating form in 2018. In Heeney’s opening five games last year, he burst out of the blocks with a five-game average of 112 SuperCoach points. The ‘Heen Machine’ is slated for a more permanent midfield role this year with the departure of Dan Hannebery, an aging Kieran Jack, and with the emergence and development of forwards Tom McCartin, Tom Papley, Ben Ronke, and Will Hayward to play alongside Franklin and a returning Sam Reid. It will mean the Swans will welcome Heeney’s return to an on-ball position this year. Get on early; you don’t want to be trying to get on this train when it leaves the station.
ROBBIE GRAY | PORT ADELAIDE POWER | $525,500 | 96.8 Avg. | FWD / MID
A consistent performer, Gray’s ceiling is huge and we could arguably see a rise in his output with Chad Wingard’s departure. With ten SuperCoach centuries last year, including 145 against the Bombers and 137 against the Cats, in which both games were losses, Gray has been a mainstay in SuperCoach teams for the past five years, and with good reason. From his last 100 games, he has scored 100 SuperCoach points or more in 60% of those matches. He has maintained his DPP status again this year - however, with a more forward role in the last two seasons, Gray’s disposal rate has dipped by six disposals from his 100-point average seasons of 2014-2016, dropping to 91 in 2017 before spiking again last year with 97. On his day, his ceiling is good for 140+ points. Very affordable in comparison to other years, and should be strongly considered.
JACK GUNSTON | HAWTHORN HAWKS | 96 Avg. | $521,400
Never has there been a third-tall that plays across half-forward that has been as SuperCoach relevant as Hawthorn’s Jack Gunston. Traditionally playing in a position that is known for its varying impact and therefore fluctuating SuperCoach output, Gunston is the exception. He returned to his 2015 form in 2018, averaging 96 SuperCoach points (up from 86 points in 2017) and becoming a popular upgrade option after stunning us with a 108-point average from his opening six games. From 21 games last year, Gunston scored 100 points or more seven times, with nine games coming in the vicinity of 85-99 points. But, as has been the question mark for all SuperCoach relevant Hawks this preseason, just what will the absence of Tom Mitchell mean for Gunston’s output? It remains to be seen, and only the JLT Series can provide us with some sort of indication. Watch this space.