Discussion General Discussion

Which team wins a final first?

  • Essendon

    Votes: 23 28.4%
  • Tasmania

    Votes: 58 71.6%

  • Total voters
    81
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Sam Edmund reporting that Pendles coronavirus test came back negative
I thought this would be the case, but I think any time a player feels at all unwell or has a sore throat we're going to have a test done and are
all going to have to hold our breath until it comes back. Eventually when somebody tests positive I believe the season will be put on hold. Finding it hard to find the motivation for SC with that in the back of my mind tbh.
 

Rowsus

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I thought the only country who has had a serious problem with this so far who has put the R0 below 1 is China and they got it to 0.3.

Basically as soon as the R0 is below 1 the epidemic will eventually be stopped.
That's a slightly different thing.
What you are looking at, is the measure of the tangent, on the graph of the total number of infected people.
ie. If there are 2,000 one day, and 2,600 the next, that number is (2,600/2,000) 1.3.
Italy in it's bad period, and the USA now, were running at 1.25-1.30, which is quite disastrous!
It means the number of confirmed cases is doubling every 2.5-3.0 days, and you can see, that very quickly gets out of control.

The number I'm talking about, is how many people (on average) each affected person passes the virus onto. The good countries have this number below 1, the bad countries are running at 3-5.
This can be approximated to the number you're talking by looking at it this way. From infection to being declared healthy, the virus has around a 16-20 day window, which includes a 6-8 incubation period. If each person with the virus is infecting 4 other people in their 18 days of having it that leads to the number you are refering to as being (1 + 4/18) 1.22, which is a pretty bad number, as far as containment is concerned.
The long incubation period is one of the things causing the biggest problem. People that are smitten, but not showing symptoms for 6-8 days, are the ones causing the biggest spread of the disease. Hence the need to restrict crowds, and people movement. Something Australia is slowly doing better, but unfortunately, slowly is the word for it.
 

Bomber18

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Seeing the rates of new infection jump in each state and Victoria declaring a state of emegency, I'm increasingly feeling like we'll find out tonight that the AFL season has been indefinitely postponed as well. The idea of 5 games in 3 rounds, etc surely heighten (rather than reduce) risk - doubt it happens.

Disappointing SC wise (but understandable) if that's the case. Hope everyone here stays safe.

To avoid misinformation, I'll post what I saw regarding the new infections in the past two days.


 

Rowsus

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On a good note ......

Here in Denmark
A 95 year old man, who was diagnosed with C19 11 days ago, has been released from hospital, back to his nursing home.

So many people thinking/acting like it is near terminal for everyone. It's most dangerous for people like this old guy, and he's back home now, so there's some good news.
 
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That's a slightly different thing.
What you are looking at, is the measure of the tangent, on the graph of the total number of infected people.
ie. If there are 2,000 one day, and 2,600 the next, that number is (2,600/2,000) 1.3.
Italy in it's bad period, and the USA now, were running at 1.25-1.30, which is quite disastrous!
It means the number of confirmed cases is doubling every 2.5-3.0 days, and you can see, that very quickly gets out of control.

The number I'm talking about, is how many people (on average) each affected person passes the virus onto. The good countries have this number below 1, the bad countries are running at 3-5.
This can be approximated to the number you're talking by looking at it this way. From infection to being declared healthy, the virus has around a 16-20 day window, which includes a 6-8 incubation period. If each person with the virus is infecting 4 other people in their 18 days of having it that leads to the number you are refering to as being (1 + 4/18) 1.22, which is a pretty bad number, as far as containment is concerned.
The long incubation period is one of the things causing the biggest problem. People that are smitten, but not showing symptoms for 6-8 days, are the ones causing the biggest spread of the disease. Hence the need to restrict crowds, and people movement. Something Australia is slowly doing better, but unfortunately, slowly is the word for it.
I was talking about the R0, which is the basic reproduction number, and that's the number of people who are on average infected by one person who has the virus. No country apart from China has got that below 1 because if you did you'd be on track to defeat the virus.

The current R0 estimate for this is 2.2 and China through very strict measures got it down to 0.3, if they keep that up the virus will be ground to a halt, until asymptomatic carriers go back to work and potentially re-start the whole thing.

With SARS when they got the R0 below 1 the virus eventually slowed down and was then eradicated.

I think Australia is somewhere in the middle with this, we implemented travel restrictions quicker than other countries and have continued to do so and are benefitted by our isolation from the rest of the world, which has slowed down the start of the spread of the illness. They closed large gatherings quicker than other countries did but are yet to close schools, restaurants (outside of take away) universities and bars (which should soon follow). I think our testing has also been very good and in Victoria 1,000 tests are being carried out per day as of last week.
 
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On a good note ......

Here in Denmark
A 95 year old man, who was diagnosed with C19 11 days ago, has been released from hospital, back to his nursing home.

So many people thinking/acting like it is near terminal for everyone. It's most dangerous for people like this old guy, and he's back home now, so there's some good news.
I know this sounds terrible, but if you were to catch it, especially in that high risk bracket, the earlier the better. The issue I believe is around the number of ICU beds available and resources. What he has available to him now may not have been the case in a month or two.
 
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I was talking about the R0, which is the basic reproduction number, and that's the number of people who are on average infected by one person who has the virus. No country apart from China has got that below 1 because if you did you'd be on track to defeat the virus.

The current R0 estimate for this is 2.2 and China through very strict measures got it down to 0.3, if they keep that up the virus will be ground to a halt, until asymptomatic carriers go back to work and potentially re-start the whole thing.

With SARS when they got the R0 below 1 the virus eventually slowed down and was then eradicated.

I think Australia is somewhere in the middle with this, we implemented travel restrictions quicker than other countries and have continued to do so and are benefitted by our isolation from the rest of the world, which has slowed down the start of the spread of the illness. They closed gatherings quicker than other countries did but are yet to close schools, restaurants (outside of take away) universities and bars (which should soon follow). I think our testing has also been very good and in Victoria 1,000 tests are being carried out per day as of last week.
To put this last point in context, whilst South Korea are being praised around the world for doing 10,000 tests per day Victoria is not far off on a per population basis. In Victoria 1 in 6,500 people are being tested every day, whilst in South Korea 1 in 5,170 people are being tested every day.
 
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Sam Edmund reporting that Pendles coronavirus test came back negative
A negative result doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have it. They just haven't been able to find it. Most of the testing is done by taking a swab in the nostrils but the virus has been found elsewhere in the body. It is most likely he doesn't have it but not 100% so he should still be isloated for two weeks. This is the advice given to someone I have spoken to who was given a negative result but still told to self isolate.
 
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A negative result doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have it. They just haven't been able to find it. Most of the testing is done by taking a swab in the nostrils but the virus has been found elsewhere in the body. It is most likely he doesn't have it but not 100% so he should still be isloated for two weeks. This is the advice given to someone I have spoken to who was given a negative result but still told to self isolate.
That's interesting to know. I have no knowledge at all of the testing procedure.

So if the person continues to show the symptoms , should they then have a more thorough test ? or just self-isolation ?

So confusing
 
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Fixture remodelling, season to go ahead.

The Age reporting round 1 to go ahead, games reduced to 17 minutes plus time on with 17 rounds - what the deal with 17?

Contracting issue with broadcasters and league worried about losing money.

I hope the wording isn't true, lost me here with the corporate greed from all levels.
 
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On a good note ......

Here in Denmark
A 95 year old man, who was diagnosed with C19 11 days ago, has been released from hospital, back to his nursing home.

So many people thinking/acting like it is near terminal for everyone. It's most dangerous for people like this old guy, and he's back home now, so there's some good news.
Heard on the radio that somewhere in Denmark hand sanitiser was selling for $9.99 and the 2nd one for $241 or so, good way to stop stockpiling. Hope it's true. Should be introduced here.
 
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BREAKING: ALL STATE LEAGUES AND TALENT PROGRAMS SUSPENDED BECAUSE OF "GLOBAL HEALTH ISSUE"
The AFL wishes to advise that following a meeting with AFL State CEOs a collective decision has been made to postpone the operation and / or the commencement of each premier State League and national and state talent program across the country.

This includes the VFL/W, SANFL/W, NEAFL, WAFL/W, TSL/W and talent programs.

The decision was collectively agreed upon based on the part-time nature of these competitions and the financial implications for the State League clubs and State Leagues.

This decision is effective until May 31.
 
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How much more information could they possibly get from now until tomorrow as to whether to start the season on Thursday or not? Just push it back a couple of months and start it then if it's only going to go for 17 rounds anyway.
 
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