Out of interest, and you don't have to answer if you don't want to, are these players based more on some stats/trends you have looked at or more on gut feel of the players possible improvement?
I must admit that most smokies I have considered over the years is based on gut feel that they are going to have a breakout footy season and hence the SC scores would simply follow from that.
I break my smokies in to two categories, the forgotten and the rising type. The forgotten are those players who lowered their colours last year and most coaches may have forgotten what the player is capable of. Brent moloney is a perfect example. If you just look at his yearly average you do yourself a disservice. For his scores in games when mark Jamar didn't play are down. Also he often has started the season well only to find he is in a shi*t team again and his scores fall away. If leunberger fires and Brisbane are up,and about you may see a different player.
The rising smokie for me is a player who has shown in the past he can play and put in the occasional big score. The super elite players of today did not walk in and average 120's in their first year. They took time to mature and become consistent. If you take the time to look at someone like a Trent Cotchin in 2011 he averaged
100, but in 2010 he averaged only 78. In both years he had good games, but in 2010 he had five scores under 60. In 2011 he didn't go 'missing'. So my rising smokie is someone who has shown they can score big and maybe ready to mature. Last year it was dangerfield for me. This year it's...........