Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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G'day Rowsus,
I'm very torn on Dusty atm. Like most players, he averages significantly less in losses, and the Tiges' swift rise to prominence makes me wonder, has a team ever rose so fast and not faced a hard crash? Definitely think he'll be scary not to have, but when I toss him up with someone like Crouch, I see him as having a greater chance of an off week, and therefore more likely to get in at a discount. Whereas with Crouch, I don't see him moving below 600k this season.
Would love your thoughts on Dusty and the tiges. Cheers
I'm very torn on Dusty atm. Like most players, he averages significantly less in losses, and the Tiges' swift rise to prominence makes me wonder, has a team ever rose so fast and not faced a hard crash? Definitely think he'll be scary not to have, but when I toss him up with someone like Crouch, I see him as having a greater chance of an off week, and therefore more likely to get in at a discount. Whereas with Crouch, I don't see him moving below 600k this season.
Would love your thoughts on Dusty and the tiges. Cheers
To be fair, I'm worried about the JS of everyone of my selections under $300k.
I don't think Houli affects Ellis at all. Completely different roles, and that applies a bit to Rioli too.
If Ellis is playing ok, I can't see Broad being such a must have in Richmond's side, that they'd drop Ellis to get Broad in.
Possession is 9/10's of the law, and while Ellis is in the team, it's his spot to keep.
I don't think Houli affects Ellis at all. Completely different roles, and that applies a bit to Rioli too.
If Ellis is playing ok, I can't see Broad being such a must have in Richmond's side, that they'd drop Ellis to get Broad in.
Possession is 9/10's of the law, and while Ellis is in the team, it's his spot to keep.
Hi McLovin,
I don't quite see them as the same role. I must admit, while Billings is a chance to do well, the interest and confidence in him seems higher than it should be.
Billings 24% ownership, Lambert 5% and considerably cheaper. To be honest, if it is a close call, you have to take the cheaper POD, everytime.
I don't quite see them as the same role. I must admit, while Billings is a chance to do well, the interest and confidence in him seems higher than it should be.
Billings 24% ownership, Lambert 5% and considerably cheaper. To be honest, if it is a close call, you have to take the cheaper POD, everytime.
Cash in the bank is useful, but not a necessity.
It can make corrections easier in the first few weeks, but if you are happy with your team, and you have little or no cash left, then just live with it!
I wouldn't be making changes to a team you are happy with, just to have some coin in your pocket.
Conversely, if you have some money leftover, then spending just for the sake of spending it is the worst thing you can do.
It can make corrections easier in the first few weeks, but if you are happy with your team, and you have little or no cash left, then just live with it!
I wouldn't be making changes to a team you are happy with, just to have some coin in your pocket.
Conversely, if you have some money leftover, then spending just for the sake of spending it is the worst thing you can do.
I must admit, if you are that confident that the figures will be so good, it's not something that should even be up for discussion, you should just take him!
I think you are being a bit optimistic though.
You think you'd take Ablett as Captain 6-8 times in 8 games!
First, even if he averages 135 like your scenario says, he'd likely have a couple of 110 type scores in there.
Second, Geelong's "game number" for the first 8 Rounds is: 8, 9, 9, 9, 4, 2, 1, 9
That means you only get to VC Gaz 3 times in those first 8 Rounds. That stops you from "excluding" his low scores too often, and wearing the good with the bad.
What will you do if your VC scores 130?
I think you are looking at it with rose colored glasses a bit, but if you have the difference at 280, then have at it, and good luck to you!
I think you are being a bit optimistic though.
You think you'd take Ablett as Captain 6-8 times in 8 games!
First, even if he averages 135 like your scenario says, he'd likely have a couple of 110 type scores in there.
Second, Geelong's "game number" for the first 8 Rounds is: 8, 9, 9, 9, 4, 2, 1, 9
That means you only get to VC Gaz 3 times in those first 8 Rounds. That stops you from "excluding" his low scores too often, and wearing the good with the bad.
What will you do if your VC scores 130?
I think you are looking at it with rose colored glasses a bit, but if you have the difference at 280, then have at it, and good luck to you!
G'day Rowsus,
I'm very torn on Dusty atm. Like most players, he averages significantly less in losses, and the Tiges' swift rise to prominence makes me wonder, has a team ever rose so fast and not faced a hard crash? Definitely think he'll be scary not to have, but when I toss him up with someone like Crouch, I see him as having a greater chance of an off week, and therefore more likely to get in at a discount. Whereas with Crouch, I don't see him moving below 600k this season.
Would love your thoughts on Dusty and the tiges. Cheers
I'm very torn on Dusty atm. Like most players, he averages significantly less in losses, and the Tiges' swift rise to prominence makes me wonder, has a team ever rose so fast and not faced a hard crash? Definitely think he'll be scary not to have, but when I toss him up with someone like Crouch, I see him as having a greater chance of an off week, and therefore more likely to get in at a discount. Whereas with Crouch, I don't see him moving below 600k this season.
Would love your thoughts on Dusty and the tiges. Cheers
I see the Tiges doing better this year, than the Bullies did last year.
For Crouch not fall below $600k he is going to have to average over 120, and not have a little dry spell, where he scores say 100 in two out of three games. If you think that scenario rings true, then he should be a must have in your team. Dusty or no Dusty.
I'm sure Dusty will throw up his usual frustrating scores at some stage, but barring injury, it's hard to see him not being a top 4-6 Mid this season. His price might bottom out, but given the Tigers early draw, and Martin's record at the MCG, I think it is possible that bottom out might not happen until the byes, or just after.
Hi Rowsus,
Thanks for another mammoth effort this preseason. You no doubt bring plenty of visitors and new users to this site!
I've jumped on Roughead as a POD fwd option pretty late in the preseason after an article (which you might've seen too) where Roughy noted he didn't have proper feeling in his feet until the final 5-6 rounds. This affected his kicking and agility. Roughy averaged 100+ during those final few rounds! With full fitness, I'm thinking he's possibly a chance to jump back to a 95 ish average.
Just wondering if you had considered him at all this preseason, and just your general thoughts on Roughead?
Cheers
B18
Thanks for another mammoth effort this preseason. You no doubt bring plenty of visitors and new users to this site!
I've jumped on Roughead as a POD fwd option pretty late in the preseason after an article (which you might've seen too) where Roughy noted he didn't have proper feeling in his feet until the final 5-6 rounds. This affected his kicking and agility. Roughy averaged 100+ during those final few rounds! With full fitness, I'm thinking he's possibly a chance to jump back to a 95 ish average.
Just wondering if you had considered him at all this preseason, and just your general thoughts on Roughead?
Cheers
B18
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Hi B18, thanks for the good words!
To be honest, I hadn't considered Roughie much, but I think 95 is a reasonable expectation for him. 5 years in a row between 104 and 96 before missing 2016. Takes 2017 to find his feet again, and back into that 95 area this season. I can't fault the logic. Clarkson obviously will have tinkered with their game plan for this season, and no doubt that will affect Roughie one way or another, but who's to say it won't be to Roughie's SC advantage?!
To be honest, I hadn't considered Roughie much, but I think 95 is a reasonable expectation for him. 5 years in a row between 104 and 96 before missing 2016. Takes 2017 to find his feet again, and back into that 95 area this season. I can't fault the logic. Clarkson obviously will have tinkered with their game plan for this season, and no doubt that will affect Roughie one way or another, but who's to say it won't be to Roughie's SC advantage?!
Where are your thoughts with the R2?
I had Lycett rather early, then cooled given he’ll share the load at best. Nank has been in my side a week but doesn’t quite sit right given he seems to be a tier below the best. Goldy is an option too, but uses up most of my cash.
I’d be considering a Paddy slingshot in most cases anyhow.
I haven’t found a good way to use the spare cash from the above choice either, except awaiting Danger.
I had Lycett rather early, then cooled given he’ll share the load at best. Nank has been in my side a week but doesn’t quite sit right given he seems to be a tier below the best. Goldy is an option too, but uses up most of my cash.
I’d be considering a Paddy slingshot in most cases anyhow.
I haven’t found a good way to use the spare cash from the above choice either, except awaiting Danger.
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Hey Row,
Not sure if you have any stats/info on the scoring nuances of Supercoach but thought I'd pose the question anyway.
In the past, Gary Ablett has always had a very high DT/SC ratio (i.e. more SC points per stat).
2013: DT avg: 114.6; SC avg: 129
2014: DT avg: 119.1; SC avg: 136.6
2015: DT avg: 94.5; SC avg: 114.3
2016: DT avg: 101.2; SC avg: 114
However, 2017 was a different story. It was the first time in his career that his DT average was higher than SC.
2017: DT avg: 118.7; SC avg: 114.7
Are you aware of any causation of the change? Or do you have any theory as to why?
Similarly, Tom Mitchell suffered from less SC points per stat than any other premium, recording a DT averaged of 127.1 and a SC average of 118.8.
I'm finding it difficult to pinpoint a reason for both a) why Ablett's SC point/stat dropped away and b) why Mitchell has such a low SC point/stat rating.
Cheers mate
Not sure if you have any stats/info on the scoring nuances of Supercoach but thought I'd pose the question anyway.
In the past, Gary Ablett has always had a very high DT/SC ratio (i.e. more SC points per stat).
2013: DT avg: 114.6; SC avg: 129
2014: DT avg: 119.1; SC avg: 136.6
2015: DT avg: 94.5; SC avg: 114.3
2016: DT avg: 101.2; SC avg: 114
However, 2017 was a different story. It was the first time in his career that his DT average was higher than SC.
2017: DT avg: 118.7; SC avg: 114.7
Are you aware of any causation of the change? Or do you have any theory as to why?
Similarly, Tom Mitchell suffered from less SC points per stat than any other premium, recording a DT averaged of 127.1 and a SC average of 118.8.
I'm finding it difficult to pinpoint a reason for both a) why Ablett's SC point/stat dropped away and b) why Mitchell has such a low SC point/stat rating.
Cheers mate
I’m struggling with this too. Have been switching between Lycett and Nank the last couple of days and while I feel a bit safer with Nank in the team, I just don’t see the gap between their output this year to be to the tune of the $200k separating them in price at the moment. However, when I have Lycett in my team I have that mountain of cash sitting in the bank that I don’t know what to do with.
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Rowsus - hope you are off to a good start in game 1
Looking at R3 - Olango is best ruck choice, if however, going dpp, do you know who has the most late games. Tried to find it in the ruck comments to no avail. Seen some suggest English although not sure if that is a balance between could play and ok on late game, but not best?
Looking at R3 - Olango is best ruck choice, if however, going dpp, do you know who has the most late games. Tried to find it in the ruck comments to no avail. Seen some suggest English although not sure if that is a balance between could play and ok on late game, but not best?
Sorry for the late reply. Work commitments ran past where I'd have preferred unfortunately.
Nank is locked now, so it would seem you either have Nank or Lycett. To be honest, good arguments can be made for both, and both could turn out to be good picks, and fill the purpose for which they were chosen.
I sacked Lycett 2 or 3 weeks ago now, and I've gone with Gawn and Martin S.
I probably couldn't have shone much of a light on your decision, as at various stages I've had both or either of Goldy and Lycett, and that included Goldy R1/Lycett R2, and Goldy R1/Lycett R3.
I hope which ever way you jumped it turns out for the best.
Nank is locked now, so it would seem you either have Nank or Lycett. To be honest, good arguments can be made for both, and both could turn out to be good picks, and fill the purpose for which they were chosen.
I sacked Lycett 2 or 3 weeks ago now, and I've gone with Gawn and Martin S.
I probably couldn't have shone much of a light on your decision, as at various stages I've had both or either of Goldy and Lycett, and that included Goldy R1/Lycett R2, and Goldy R1/Lycett R3.
I hope which ever way you jumped it turns out for the best.
Hey TG,
I've pored over the stats, and I can't spot the reason this has happened. The only thing I can think of is what I call "Cotchin Syndrome". I call it that, because a few years ago Cotchin's average dropped significantly more than any change in his stats suggested. What the stats didn't reveal, was that Cotchin was getting a lot of stats in the season where his SC average dropped, between the Centre and the Def arc, and these stats were short, and sideways or backwards. A short sideways or backwards kick between the arcs will score less than a long kick out of the Def arc, or into the Fwd arc. Do it 4 or 5 times a match more than you used to, and your average will drop about 10/game.
Maybe Ablett was doing something similar, because there was just a lack of targets in front of him. I just don't know, but that's my best guess.
I've pored over the stats, and I can't spot the reason this has happened. The only thing I can think of is what I call "Cotchin Syndrome". I call it that, because a few years ago Cotchin's average dropped significantly more than any change in his stats suggested. What the stats didn't reveal, was that Cotchin was getting a lot of stats in the season where his SC average dropped, between the Centre and the Def arc, and these stats were short, and sideways or backwards. A short sideways or backwards kick between the arcs will score less than a long kick out of the Def arc, or into the Fwd arc. Do it 4 or 5 times a match more than you used to, and your average will drop about 10/game.
Maybe Ablett was doing something similar, because there was just a lack of targets in front of him. I just don't know, but that's my best guess.
GFB - I've had Martin, Lambert and C Ellis play, so some good, some not so good. I assume you'll lock Dusty's VC in, giving you a good start.
English is the best R/F donut option, and it has nothing to do with the possibility of him playing, it's all to do with the draw.
Interestingly, English is named on the extended bench, so he might get a game sooner than we think!
I currently have English R3 for loopholing and potential R/F use down the track.
English is the best R/F donut option, and it has nothing to do with the possibility of him playing, it's all to do with the draw.
Interestingly, English is named on the extended bench, so he might get a game sooner than we think!
I currently have English R3 for loopholing and potential R/F use down the track.
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Brillant, thanks Rowsus re English. Thinking of pairing now with Cox rather than Lycett. Kreuzer good case in point (curse strikes again for no.1 ruckman). I am not one to start with insurance policy in ruck but like my R2 to become the insurance down the line until finals time.
Yes, will lock Martin in. With Murphy play in the backs I ended up cutting back on the more expensive rookies in bonner/ellis. Feels like Ellis was smash it if given more mid time and is a so so if playing defence.
My team was very aggressive at one stage with 1 defender ofer $300k. When Murphy/Barry talk was they werent going to play I went the other way. Once teams announced I had some cash splashing around once I brought the cheap rookies in, I ended up upgrading Cripps to Matt Crouch. Hopefully he shows some improvement and doesnt burn me.
Yes, will lock Martin in. With Murphy play in the backs I ended up cutting back on the more expensive rookies in bonner/ellis. Feels like Ellis was smash it if given more mid time and is a so so if playing defence.
My team was very aggressive at one stage with 1 defender ofer $300k. When Murphy/Barry talk was they werent going to play I went the other way. Once teams announced I had some cash splashing around once I brought the cheap rookies in, I ended up upgrading Cripps to Matt Crouch. Hopefully he shows some improvement and doesnt burn me.
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