Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Hi Row,
Hope you're well mate. Couple of elements at play in this question so I thought I'd get in early in the week!
I'm signed up for 2 cash leagues. In the minor value one I'm sitting pretty in 2nd place. In the major value league, I'm 6th and only half a game inside the 8, with two tough matchups against Top 4 teams to round out the season.
I'm pretty happy with my team overall. It's full premium, with De Goey as M/F cover. The only gripes are minor negative PODs (Tuohy) combined with not having some popular cookie cutters (Lloyd, Oliver), which I feel has contributed to my precarious position in the major league.
I have 4 trades left.
Questions:
1) Given the balancing act at play, how aggressive should I be with my remaining 4 trades? Is there any relevant expected value theory to consider?
2) With Sicily out, I can use one trade for Howe/Crisp/TMac/Hurn, or 2 for Lloyd. Do you think Lloyd is overs, or a necessary gap closure, and do you see value amongst the other 4?
3) Assuming the answer above only uses one trade, would you consider a second trade to close a gap? This perhaps ties into 1) a bit.
Thanks so much!
Hope you're well mate. Couple of elements at play in this question so I thought I'd get in early in the week!
I'm signed up for 2 cash leagues. In the minor value one I'm sitting pretty in 2nd place. In the major value league, I'm 6th and only half a game inside the 8, with two tough matchups against Top 4 teams to round out the season.
I'm pretty happy with my team overall. It's full premium, with De Goey as M/F cover. The only gripes are minor negative PODs (Tuohy) combined with not having some popular cookie cutters (Lloyd, Oliver), which I feel has contributed to my precarious position in the major league.
I have 4 trades left.
Questions:
1) Given the balancing act at play, how aggressive should I be with my remaining 4 trades? Is there any relevant expected value theory to consider?
2) With Sicily out, I can use one trade for Howe/Crisp/TMac/Hurn, or 2 for Lloyd. Do you think Lloyd is overs, or a necessary gap closure, and do you see value amongst the other 4?
3) Assuming the answer above only uses one trade, would you consider a second trade to close a gap? This perhaps ties into 1) a bit.
Thanks so much!
Hi Rowsus,
Hope you are well, I'm always keeping an eye on this thread which has helped me many times before. I come to you for some pearls of wisdom as I may be a bit unique with my situation and don't see anybody asking the questions I seek the answers for.
Setting the scene:
Team: see screenshot below
Overall rank = 1,142
Trades left = 6
Money in the bank = $248,500
League = Coming first in league and virtually guaranteed a top 4 finish
Interest = 1st priority is cash league premiership glory, 2nd priority is to finish as highest rank coach in cash league (~$200 side prize - currently leading this by 70 and 195 points from 2nd and 3rd place respectively)
Team vibes: Generally quite happy with the team so far. Couple of obvious weak points in Fritsch & Miller and also don't have the top tier mids with guys like Crouch (your 30 disposal, 90ish scoring player) and an out of form Dusty. In any case I am most definitely at a cross roads this week in how I potentially shape the team for the finals.
The Sicily trade:
Like everybody else I need to move on Sicily which allows me to bring in a midfield gun (via Heeney swing into fwd line). Currently looking at one of Oliver, Danger or Macrae and any other mids you feel should be part of the discussion (perhaps Sloane?).
Oliver - he is playing very well, pretty much my whole league has him except for me. BE of 45 and he is quite cheap at $548K < this is the week to get him. The Dees IMO have a tough-ish fixture from here (GCS, SYD, WCE, GWS for the finals), does he suffer against better sides?
Danger - have avoided him since the start worried about the Ablett, Selwood, Duncan, Menegola, Kelly guys snatching points off him. However I sense that Danger is taking back that dominance and possibly on the verge of going beast mode. Cats are playing to stay in the race for finals... Danger is relatively cheap at $569K and BE of 85 < like Oliver this would be the week to bring him in.
Macrae - come back from injury with a bang! He was going apesh!t before the injury Currently $586K with a BE of 176... next week will be the week to probably bring him in to get lowish price...
Sloane - looked good against the Cats after signing the 5 year deal. Is prone to poor scores with a heavy tag, however can hit the 140+ ceiling when he is on song... currently priced $484K with BE at 73 < this would be the week to bring him in
If I was strapped for cash I would probably take the Sloane ranger but Oliver and Danger also present value. Oliver and Danger are not PODs in my league but not having them is staring to hurt. Not sure if Macrae is tag-able and he has demonstrated he can hit the high ceiling. Very much unsure which guy to bring in for Sicily.
What are your thoughts on these guys? Not sure if you have any statistical wisdom or is it flip of the coin scenario? Who would you choose?
Ditch the Fritsch?
In addition to the Sicily trade, I'm contemplating the need to upgrade Fritsch. However with carnage hitting teams (ala Sicily, Nic Nat, etc.) I'm leaning towards keeping Fritsch for now and save the trade for a rainy day. Besides, there do not appear to be any must have guys in the Fwd line at this stage. If I did trade Fritsch I could put Ahern up fwd on the field and bring in another one of juicy Oliver/Danger/Macrae/Sloane and have Miller as a emergency loophole with Crouch/Dusty... Ahern up forward probably does not solve the problem but raises and interesting question of Fritsch vs Ahern with Ahern showing some good signs recently.
There might be no need to ditch Fritsch as he is demonstrating he can play multiple roles with a scoring range between 70-110 (a range a bit too large for my liking) but I would rather that then a round 23 doughnut...
What are your thoughts on Fritsch?
Miller the bye round filler
I kind of like this guy and brought him in during the byes which I believe has helped with my ranking. If he only played in a better team he might score better consistently... in any case I'm also contemplating on whether or not to ditch him and if to do a straight swap for one of the mid guns (Danger/ Oliver/etc.) that are on offer.
As per the above (with the Fritsch trade to a midfield gun scenario to play Ahern up fwd), I could have Miller play as an M9 rotating with Crouch/Dusty/Coniglio. The Ahern on field factor would make me a little nervous but it could be a risk that pays off.
Any thoughts here?
I am pulling the Sicily trade regardless (not sure to who) but also worried that the juicy midfield gun options are possibly too cheap to pass up and thinking it might be best thing for my team... Do I keep the likes of Fritsch and Miller for now until the finals dance and then evaluate the situation then? OR do I continue the team upgrade and bring in two mid bulls like Oliver/Danger to further complete the team?
I don't have any urgent pressures (virtually guaranteed a top 4 finish) and keen on cash league premiership glory, but would like to limit the leaking points for the top rank prize...
Summary of trade options:
1. Sicily to mid gun only (1 trade)
2. Sicily & Fritsch to 2x mid guns (2 trades) - Ahern on field up fwd, Miller M9
3. Sicily & Miller to 2x mid guns (2 trades) - Fritsch/Ahern on field up fwd
Would love to know what you would do in my situation. Happy to hear from others if they have opinion to share.
Thanks in advance, love your work Rowsus!
Cheers!
Hope you are well, I'm always keeping an eye on this thread which has helped me many times before. I come to you for some pearls of wisdom as I may be a bit unique with my situation and don't see anybody asking the questions I seek the answers for.
Setting the scene:
Team: see screenshot below
Overall rank = 1,142
Trades left = 6
Money in the bank = $248,500
League = Coming first in league and virtually guaranteed a top 4 finish
Interest = 1st priority is cash league premiership glory, 2nd priority is to finish as highest rank coach in cash league (~$200 side prize - currently leading this by 70 and 195 points from 2nd and 3rd place respectively)
Team vibes: Generally quite happy with the team so far. Couple of obvious weak points in Fritsch & Miller and also don't have the top tier mids with guys like Crouch (your 30 disposal, 90ish scoring player) and an out of form Dusty. In any case I am most definitely at a cross roads this week in how I potentially shape the team for the finals.
The Sicily trade:
Like everybody else I need to move on Sicily which allows me to bring in a midfield gun (via Heeney swing into fwd line). Currently looking at one of Oliver, Danger or Macrae and any other mids you feel should be part of the discussion (perhaps Sloane?).
Oliver - he is playing very well, pretty much my whole league has him except for me. BE of 45 and he is quite cheap at $548K < this is the week to get him. The Dees IMO have a tough-ish fixture from here (GCS, SYD, WCE, GWS for the finals), does he suffer against better sides?
Danger - have avoided him since the start worried about the Ablett, Selwood, Duncan, Menegola, Kelly guys snatching points off him. However I sense that Danger is taking back that dominance and possibly on the verge of going beast mode. Cats are playing to stay in the race for finals... Danger is relatively cheap at $569K and BE of 85 < like Oliver this would be the week to bring him in.
Macrae - come back from injury with a bang! He was going apesh!t before the injury Currently $586K with a BE of 176... next week will be the week to probably bring him in to get lowish price...
Sloane - looked good against the Cats after signing the 5 year deal. Is prone to poor scores with a heavy tag, however can hit the 140+ ceiling when he is on song... currently priced $484K with BE at 73 < this would be the week to bring him in
If I was strapped for cash I would probably take the Sloane ranger but Oliver and Danger also present value. Oliver and Danger are not PODs in my league but not having them is staring to hurt. Not sure if Macrae is tag-able and he has demonstrated he can hit the high ceiling. Very much unsure which guy to bring in for Sicily.
What are your thoughts on these guys? Not sure if you have any statistical wisdom or is it flip of the coin scenario? Who would you choose?
Ditch the Fritsch?
In addition to the Sicily trade, I'm contemplating the need to upgrade Fritsch. However with carnage hitting teams (ala Sicily, Nic Nat, etc.) I'm leaning towards keeping Fritsch for now and save the trade for a rainy day. Besides, there do not appear to be any must have guys in the Fwd line at this stage. If I did trade Fritsch I could put Ahern up fwd on the field and bring in another one of juicy Oliver/Danger/Macrae/Sloane and have Miller as a emergency loophole with Crouch/Dusty... Ahern up forward probably does not solve the problem but raises and interesting question of Fritsch vs Ahern with Ahern showing some good signs recently.
There might be no need to ditch Fritsch as he is demonstrating he can play multiple roles with a scoring range between 70-110 (a range a bit too large for my liking) but I would rather that then a round 23 doughnut...
What are your thoughts on Fritsch?
Miller the bye round filler
I kind of like this guy and brought him in during the byes which I believe has helped with my ranking. If he only played in a better team he might score better consistently... in any case I'm also contemplating on whether or not to ditch him and if to do a straight swap for one of the mid guns (Danger/ Oliver/etc.) that are on offer.
As per the above (with the Fritsch trade to a midfield gun scenario to play Ahern up fwd), I could have Miller play as an M9 rotating with Crouch/Dusty/Coniglio. The Ahern on field factor would make me a little nervous but it could be a risk that pays off.
Any thoughts here?
I am pulling the Sicily trade regardless (not sure to who) but also worried that the juicy midfield gun options are possibly too cheap to pass up and thinking it might be best thing for my team... Do I keep the likes of Fritsch and Miller for now until the finals dance and then evaluate the situation then? OR do I continue the team upgrade and bring in two mid bulls like Oliver/Danger to further complete the team?
I don't have any urgent pressures (virtually guaranteed a top 4 finish) and keen on cash league premiership glory, but would like to limit the leaking points for the top rank prize...
Summary of trade options:
1. Sicily to mid gun only (1 trade)
2. Sicily & Fritsch to 2x mid guns (2 trades) - Ahern on field up fwd, Miller M9
3. Sicily & Miller to 2x mid guns (2 trades) - Fritsch/Ahern on field up fwd
Would love to know what you would do in my situation. Happy to hear from others if they have opinion to share.
Thanks in advance, love your work Rowsus!
Cheers!
Last edited:
Hi Xabi,
given your desire is League success, you need to be as frugal as possible with those remaining trades.
That being the case, I don't think you can justify using 2 trades to get Lloyd.
I also think it's important you do what you can to win this weeks match in your Major League. To that aim, and depending on who your trade bait is (other than Tuohy, who it would be nice to be rid of, or pushed to D7), and how much cash you have, you need to try and pace your trading in the next week or 3.
Without having the full picture, I suggest you go ahead with your Sicily trade, but look at which one of Howe, Crisp, and TMac will give you a POD against both this weeks, and next weeks opponent. From there, I would closely follow your Major match up this week, so you can decide if you need to make/use that 2nd trade. That leaves you the potential option of Tuohy to Hurn, if your match up isn't tracking as you'd like. Obviously if you have other trade bait, other options are available to you.
I'd only pull the trigger on your 2nd trade if you need to do it. If the match looks over, either way, you are best to keep the trade up your sleeve. I wouldn't be doing it, if you think the theoretical 20-30 point boost puts you in a 50/50 position this week. I'd want a better proposition than that to pull the trigger.
Good luck!
given your desire is League success, you need to be as frugal as possible with those remaining trades.
That being the case, I don't think you can justify using 2 trades to get Lloyd.
I also think it's important you do what you can to win this weeks match in your Major League. To that aim, and depending on who your trade bait is (other than Tuohy, who it would be nice to be rid of, or pushed to D7), and how much cash you have, you need to try and pace your trading in the next week or 3.
Without having the full picture, I suggest you go ahead with your Sicily trade, but look at which one of Howe, Crisp, and TMac will give you a POD against both this weeks, and next weeks opponent. From there, I would closely follow your Major match up this week, so you can decide if you need to make/use that 2nd trade. That leaves you the potential option of Tuohy to Hurn, if your match up isn't tracking as you'd like. Obviously if you have other trade bait, other options are available to you.
I'd only pull the trigger on your 2nd trade if you need to do it. If the match looks over, either way, you are best to keep the trade up your sleeve. I wouldn't be doing it, if you think the theoretical 20-30 point boost puts you in a 50/50 position this week. I'd want a better proposition than that to pull the trigger.
Good luck!
Hi Mafia,
thanks for the kind words.
I liken your current position to being 4 in front of a footy tipping competition. Now is not the time to take risks, and the best thing you can do is make others take risks to catch you. Generally they'll need a lot of luck to do that, if they are picking 2 to 4 non-favs every week.
To that end, you need to close some negative POD's, and let the others wonder how they'll make up the ground on you.
Oliver is largely bullet-proof over the past 2 seasons.
For a young guy to have 38 games, with 5 scores below 90, 5 scores in the 90's and 28 scores 100+ is pretty amazing. 12 of those 28 100+ scores are 120+. The other reason he appears bullet proof is his average across all scenarios:
Breaking teams up into High (1st to 8th) and Low (9th to 18th), and games into Wins and Losses, and grounds into MCG and not MCG here is his break up in those 8 scenarios.
Non MCG Loss to a Low team: 1/170.0
Non MCG Win against a Low team: 9/122.7
MCG Win against a High Team: 1/116.0
Non MCG Win against a High Team: 4/115.3
MCG Loss Loss to a High Team: 5/109.8
MCG Win against a Low Team: 8/108.3
Non MCG Loss to a High Team: 4/103.8
MCG Loss to a Low Team: 6/99.7
I would point out, that that last number of 6/99.7 includes his 59 in the loss to St kilda this year. Without that game, it reads as 5/107.8. I'm generally not a fan of dropping games to make arguments, but let me just point out how out of character that game was. If you look at Oliver's past 2 seasons, and see how many points he has averaged per disposal, he only has 4 games in those 38 games, where his points/disposal dropped below 3.3. He only has 1 game below 3 points/disposal, and that was that St Kilda game, where he recorded a 2.5 points/disposal!
I agree with you, that Dangerfield appears to be building. Maybe Scott has finally realised that having the most dangerous Midfielder in the competition playing 50/50 Mid/Fwd isn't in Geelong's best interests!
I keep waiting for Macrae to crack. Maybe he won't, as the Bulldogs 2nd halves are generally poor, and opposition teams might think they can beat them without covering Macrae. He just doesn't hurt them enough, by himself. That might keep his scores ticking along if it is right, but I'd risk against him for now.
Sloane had the 2nd most high scores in 2017 behind Dangerfield, and more than Dusty. The problem is he throws in too many poor scores, too. He's good as a potential VC loophole player, but at this stage, you don't need one of them.
I think I'd be going option 2 in your summary, and getting Oliver and Dangerfield.
Very nice write up you did, by the way!
Good luck, I hope it works well for you!
thanks for the kind words.
I liken your current position to being 4 in front of a footy tipping competition. Now is not the time to take risks, and the best thing you can do is make others take risks to catch you. Generally they'll need a lot of luck to do that, if they are picking 2 to 4 non-favs every week.
To that end, you need to close some negative POD's, and let the others wonder how they'll make up the ground on you.
Oliver is largely bullet-proof over the past 2 seasons.
For a young guy to have 38 games, with 5 scores below 90, 5 scores in the 90's and 28 scores 100+ is pretty amazing. 12 of those 28 100+ scores are 120+. The other reason he appears bullet proof is his average across all scenarios:
Breaking teams up into High (1st to 8th) and Low (9th to 18th), and games into Wins and Losses, and grounds into MCG and not MCG here is his break up in those 8 scenarios.
Non MCG Loss to a Low team: 1/170.0
Non MCG Win against a Low team: 9/122.7
MCG Win against a High Team: 1/116.0
Non MCG Win against a High Team: 4/115.3
MCG Loss Loss to a High Team: 5/109.8
MCG Win against a Low Team: 8/108.3
Non MCG Loss to a High Team: 4/103.8
MCG Loss to a Low Team: 6/99.7
I would point out, that that last number of 6/99.7 includes his 59 in the loss to St kilda this year. Without that game, it reads as 5/107.8. I'm generally not a fan of dropping games to make arguments, but let me just point out how out of character that game was. If you look at Oliver's past 2 seasons, and see how many points he has averaged per disposal, he only has 4 games in those 38 games, where his points/disposal dropped below 3.3. He only has 1 game below 3 points/disposal, and that was that St Kilda game, where he recorded a 2.5 points/disposal!
I agree with you, that Dangerfield appears to be building. Maybe Scott has finally realised that having the most dangerous Midfielder in the competition playing 50/50 Mid/Fwd isn't in Geelong's best interests!
I keep waiting for Macrae to crack. Maybe he won't, as the Bulldogs 2nd halves are generally poor, and opposition teams might think they can beat them without covering Macrae. He just doesn't hurt them enough, by himself. That might keep his scores ticking along if it is right, but I'd risk against him for now.
Sloane had the 2nd most high scores in 2017 behind Dangerfield, and more than Dusty. The problem is he throws in too many poor scores, too. He's good as a potential VC loophole player, but at this stage, you don't need one of them.
I think I'd be going option 2 in your summary, and getting Oliver and Dangerfield.
Very nice write up you did, by the way!
Good luck, I hope it works well for you!
Hi Rowan,
It's been a while since I've touched base this year, but I thought that since trades are running low, it might be a good time
I basically have a similar question to a few previous - what do I do with Sicily?
Current situation is as follows:
FWD: So far looking good, no injuries and have Ahern as cover and Keefe linked with Sicily.
RUCK: Same as above - Gawn and Goldy with Olango
MID: Same as above. I'm in the lucky position to have Rockliff at M9 to loop with Crouch and Dusty and also have Giro at M10 and Pettrucelle at M11 as my FD linked the Ahern.
DEF: Overall this line is also quite solid, but I have Austin and Cumming on the pine who are not playing atm, so no cover. Now with Sicily out and requiring a trade, I have a few options...
But I only have 3 trades left (and 59k in the kitty) and want to use them wisely.
The options I've considered are:
TMac - keeps the DEF/FWD link with Keefe
Brayshaw and J.Smith (in for Giro) - with Hibberd down, it could open the door for Smith and this would also create a nice DEF/MID link. Only thing that concerns me is that Brayshaw can score like a Crouch - big numbers for a smaller return.
Howe - pretty consistent scorer and quite durable.
Short - not a proven SC scorer (i.e. no real history)
Ryan - will see the ball a lot and has shown he can score well
McGovern - up and down scorer, but can score well
Webster - good price...but injury issues?
Keen to hear your thoughts - and if you have any other left field options no listed above
Cheers!
It's been a while since I've touched base this year, but I thought that since trades are running low, it might be a good time
I basically have a similar question to a few previous - what do I do with Sicily?
Current situation is as follows:
FWD: So far looking good, no injuries and have Ahern as cover and Keefe linked with Sicily.
RUCK: Same as above - Gawn and Goldy with Olango
MID: Same as above. I'm in the lucky position to have Rockliff at M9 to loop with Crouch and Dusty and also have Giro at M10 and Pettrucelle at M11 as my FD linked the Ahern.
DEF: Overall this line is also quite solid, but I have Austin and Cumming on the pine who are not playing atm, so no cover. Now with Sicily out and requiring a trade, I have a few options...
But I only have 3 trades left (and 59k in the kitty) and want to use them wisely.
The options I've considered are:
TMac - keeps the DEF/FWD link with Keefe
Brayshaw and J.Smith (in for Giro) - with Hibberd down, it could open the door for Smith and this would also create a nice DEF/MID link. Only thing that concerns me is that Brayshaw can score like a Crouch - big numbers for a smaller return.
Howe - pretty consistent scorer and quite durable.
Short - not a proven SC scorer (i.e. no real history)
Ryan - will see the ball a lot and has shown he can score well
McGovern - up and down scorer, but can score well
Webster - good price...but injury issues?
Keen to hear your thoughts - and if you have any other left field options no listed above
Cheers!
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Hi Rowan,
I have 4 trades left and like most am looking at Sicily,
I am leaning toward a very poddy Houli given he appeared to not be hampered by his injury last week and is priced well below his season starting price and his established scoring history.
This would give me the Bank to not make compromised selections with my remaining three trades if/when needed.
Subject to injury team drops also have Kreuze and Robbie to consider this week.
What do you think Houli will average for the last six games, given I am ranked 25k do not mind this left field name being bandied around here for opinions, if I was ranked right up at the top I would keep my thoughts to myself probably.
I have 4 trades left and like most am looking at Sicily,
I am leaning toward a very poddy Houli given he appeared to not be hampered by his injury last week and is priced well below his season starting price and his established scoring history.
This would give me the Bank to not make compromised selections with my remaining three trades if/when needed.
Subject to injury team drops also have Kreuze and Robbie to consider this week.
What do you think Houli will average for the last six games, given I am ranked 25k do not mind this left field name being bandied around here for opinions, if I was ranked right up at the top I would keep my thoughts to myself probably.
Hi Mafia,
thanks for the kind words.
I liken your current position to being 4 in front of a footy tipping competition. Now is not the time to take risks, and the best thing you can do is make others take risks to catch you. Generally they'll need a lot of luck to do that, if they are picking 2 to 4 non-favs every week.
To that end, you need to close some negative POD's, and let the others wonder how they'll make up the ground on you.
Oliver is largely bullet-proof over the past 2 seasons.
For a young guy to have 38 games, with 5 scores below 90, 5 scores in the 90's and 28 scores 100+ is pretty amazing. 12 of those 28 100+ scores are 120+. The other reason he appears bullet proof is his average across all scenarios:
Breaking teams up into High (1st to 8th) and Low (9th to 18th), and games into Wins and Losses, and grounds into MCG and not MCG here is his break up in those 8 scenarios.
Non MCG Loss to a Low team: 1/170.0
Non MCG Win against a Low team: 9/122.7
MCG Win against a High Team: 1/116.0
Non MCG Win against a High Team: 4/115.3
MCG Loss Loss to a High Team: 5/109.8
MCG Win against a Low Team: 8/108.3
Non MCG Loss to a High Team: 4/103.8
MCG Loss to a Low Team: 6/99.7
I would point out, that that last number of 6/99.7 includes his 59 in the loss to St kilda this year. Without that game, it reads as 5/107.8. I'm generally not a fan of dropping games to make arguments, but let me just point out how out of character that game was. If you look at Oliver's past 2 seasons, and see how many points he has averaged per disposal, he only has 4 games in those 38 games, where his points/disposal dropped below 3.3. He only has 1 game below 3 points/disposal, and that was that St Kilda game, where he recorded a 2.5 points/disposal!
I agree with you, that Dangerfield appears to be building. Maybe Scott has finally realised that having the most dangerous Midfielder in the competition playing 50/50 Mid/Fwd isn't in Geelong's best interests!
I keep waiting for Macrae to crack. Maybe he won't, as the Bulldogs 2nd halves are generally poor, and opposition teams might think they can beat them without covering Macrae. He just doesn't hurt them enough, by himself. That might keep his scores ticking along if it is right, but I'd risk against him for now.
Sloane had the 2nd most high scores in 2017 behind Dangerfield, and more than Dusty. The problem is he throws in too many poor scores, too. He's good as a potential VC loophole player, but at this stage, you don't need one of them.
I think I'd be going option 2 in your summary, and getting Oliver and Dangerfield.
Very nice write up you did, by the way!
Good luck, I hope it works well for you!
thanks for the kind words.
I liken your current position to being 4 in front of a footy tipping competition. Now is not the time to take risks, and the best thing you can do is make others take risks to catch you. Generally they'll need a lot of luck to do that, if they are picking 2 to 4 non-favs every week.
To that end, you need to close some negative POD's, and let the others wonder how they'll make up the ground on you.
Oliver is largely bullet-proof over the past 2 seasons.
For a young guy to have 38 games, with 5 scores below 90, 5 scores in the 90's and 28 scores 100+ is pretty amazing. 12 of those 28 100+ scores are 120+. The other reason he appears bullet proof is his average across all scenarios:
Breaking teams up into High (1st to 8th) and Low (9th to 18th), and games into Wins and Losses, and grounds into MCG and not MCG here is his break up in those 8 scenarios.
Non MCG Loss to a Low team: 1/170.0
Non MCG Win against a Low team: 9/122.7
MCG Win against a High Team: 1/116.0
Non MCG Win against a High Team: 4/115.3
MCG Loss Loss to a High Team: 5/109.8
MCG Win against a Low Team: 8/108.3
Non MCG Loss to a High Team: 4/103.8
MCG Loss to a Low Team: 6/99.7
I would point out, that that last number of 6/99.7 includes his 59 in the loss to St kilda this year. Without that game, it reads as 5/107.8. I'm generally not a fan of dropping games to make arguments, but let me just point out how out of character that game was. If you look at Oliver's past 2 seasons, and see how many points he has averaged per disposal, he only has 4 games in those 38 games, where his points/disposal dropped below 3.3. He only has 1 game below 3 points/disposal, and that was that St Kilda game, where he recorded a 2.5 points/disposal!
I agree with you, that Dangerfield appears to be building. Maybe Scott has finally realised that having the most dangerous Midfielder in the competition playing 50/50 Mid/Fwd isn't in Geelong's best interests!
I keep waiting for Macrae to crack. Maybe he won't, as the Bulldogs 2nd halves are generally poor, and opposition teams might think they can beat them without covering Macrae. He just doesn't hurt them enough, by himself. That might keep his scores ticking along if it is right, but I'd risk against him for now.
Sloane had the 2nd most high scores in 2017 behind Dangerfield, and more than Dusty. The problem is he throws in too many poor scores, too. He's good as a potential VC loophole player, but at this stage, you don't need one of them.
I think I'd be going option 2 in your summary, and getting Oliver and Dangerfield.
Very nice write up you did, by the way!
Good luck, I hope it works well for you!
Do you think Ahern can hold his own on the field up forward? With 84, 57, 49, 80, 81 & most recently 84 he looks like he is finding that 80 points rhythm and seems to be contributing to the team. Sample size is small on him but North Melb seem to be putting more faith into him and he appears to be taking his chances...
I take it you prefer Miller as M9 rather then rotating Fritsch/Ahern up fwd ?
The other thing to consider in doing Miller M9 is that I have Giro (getting regular games) & Phillips STK (who intermittently gets games) on the bench in midfield, so the M9 loophole might not really work like I need it to... hard to say I guess unless one or both of Giro/Phillips gets omitted/injured and misses games consistently. An awkward situation which has me leaning towards trading Miller- which I am reluctant to do...
Pulling the double trigger and getting Oliver/Danger in seems like the best way to go especially because they are affordable atm. Method in who I trade out is yet to be determined... Sicily and ?
-Trading out Miller leaves me with ~124k in the bank for a potential future Fritsch upgrade during finals
-Trading out Fritsch leaves me with ~59k in the bank for a potential future Ahern upgrade (Ahern to probably get up to about 350-400K if he can maintain the rage)
4 trades for injuries should be enough I hope.
Love your work as always!
Cheers!
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Hey Rowsus,
Unfortunately it looks like im out of the picture for the grand prize, but still quite content overall with my season so far, hope you're with yours too!
Anyways, regarding Sicily replacement,
I'm pretty set on either Lloyd or Brayshaw. Honestly I think Lloyd is definitely a better choice, but I do want to climb as much rank as possible, and Lloyd has almost a 100% ownership rate in the top 50, so I really do not want to pick him.
Brayshaw as a slightly worse option is owned by a decent proportion of players and I assume ownership in top 50 will exceed 50% after this week. I currently prefer him over Lloyd simply because he's somewhat a POD.
So to sum up the question, would you take lloyd or Brayshaw to climb ranks or is there someone else you'd prefer purely? Price doesn't matter.
Unfortunately it looks like im out of the picture for the grand prize, but still quite content overall with my season so far, hope you're with yours too!
Anyways, regarding Sicily replacement,
I'm pretty set on either Lloyd or Brayshaw. Honestly I think Lloyd is definitely a better choice, but I do want to climb as much rank as possible, and Lloyd has almost a 100% ownership rate in the top 50, so I really do not want to pick him.
Brayshaw as a slightly worse option is owned by a decent proportion of players and I assume ownership in top 50 will exceed 50% after this week. I currently prefer him over Lloyd simply because he's somewhat a POD.
So to sum up the question, would you take lloyd or Brayshaw to climb ranks or is there someone else you'd prefer purely? Price doesn't matter.
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Hi Rowan,
It's been a while since I've touched base this year, but I thought that since trades are running low, it might be a good time
I basically have a similar question to a few previous - what do I do with Sicily?
Current situation is as follows:
FWD: So far looking good, no injuries and have Ahern as cover and Keefe linked with Sicily.
RUCK: Same as above - Gawn and Goldy with Olango
MID: Same as above. I'm in the lucky position to have Rockliff at M9 to loop with Crouch and Dusty and also have Giro at M10 and Pettrucelle at M11 as my FD linked the Ahern.
DEF: Overall this line is also quite solid, but I have Austin and Cumming on the pine who are not playing atm, so no cover. Now with Sicily out and requiring a trade, I have a few options...
But I only have 3 trades left (and 59k in the kitty) and want to use them wisely.
The options I've considered are:
TMac - keeps the DEF/FWD link with Keefe
Brayshaw and J.Smith (in for Giro) - with Hibberd down, it could open the door for Smith and this would also create a nice DEF/MID link. Only thing that concerns me is that Brayshaw can score like a Crouch - big numbers for a smaller return.
Howe - pretty consistent scorer and quite durable.
Short - not a proven SC scorer (i.e. no real history)
Ryan - will see the ball a lot and has shown he can score well
McGovern - up and down scorer, but can score well
Webster - good price...but injury issues?
Keen to hear your thoughts - and if you have any other left field options no listed above
Cheers!
It's been a while since I've touched base this year, but I thought that since trades are running low, it might be a good time
I basically have a similar question to a few previous - what do I do with Sicily?
Current situation is as follows:
FWD: So far looking good, no injuries and have Ahern as cover and Keefe linked with Sicily.
RUCK: Same as above - Gawn and Goldy with Olango
MID: Same as above. I'm in the lucky position to have Rockliff at M9 to loop with Crouch and Dusty and also have Giro at M10 and Pettrucelle at M11 as my FD linked the Ahern.
DEF: Overall this line is also quite solid, but I have Austin and Cumming on the pine who are not playing atm, so no cover. Now with Sicily out and requiring a trade, I have a few options...
But I only have 3 trades left (and 59k in the kitty) and want to use them wisely.
The options I've considered are:
TMac - keeps the DEF/FWD link with Keefe
Brayshaw and J.Smith (in for Giro) - with Hibberd down, it could open the door for Smith and this would also create a nice DEF/MID link. Only thing that concerns me is that Brayshaw can score like a Crouch - big numbers for a smaller return.
Howe - pretty consistent scorer and quite durable.
Short - not a proven SC scorer (i.e. no real history)
Ryan - will see the ball a lot and has shown he can score well
McGovern - up and down scorer, but can score well
Webster - good price...but injury issues?
Keen to hear your thoughts - and if you have any other left field options no listed above
Cheers!
I don't like the idea of using 2 trades at this time of the year, just to get an ok maybe pick like J Smith. Especially with only 3 trades left!
Short only has 3 x 100+ scores, and 4 scores in the 90's.
Ryan scores like a KPF it seems. 120 or 70.
McGovern probably is only a 90/game prospect.
Webster scratched himself at the selection table.
That leaves TMac and Howe. There may not be a lot between them, but TMac is $20k cheaper, and gives some flexibility, if/when you get some Def bench cover. I'd go with him.
Hi Brian,
well, Houli didn't last long on your wish list! And you also have a Kreuze problem.
I think I'd eat the Kreuze donut, unless you are of the opinion it will be an on going concern. I'm not sure either way.
If you are looking for a value Sicily replacement, to pave way for better trading ahead, I would be tossing up between Himmelberg and McGrath.
Himmelberg seems to have had a role change, with all the tall dramas happening at GWS.
McGrath is showing signs, small signs, that he might finish the season, how many people thought/hoped he might start it.
Both are very risky propositions, but when you shop below $400k, they always are!
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
well, Houli didn't last long on your wish list! And you also have a Kreuze problem.
I think I'd eat the Kreuze donut, unless you are of the opinion it will be an on going concern. I'm not sure either way.
If you are looking for a value Sicily replacement, to pave way for better trading ahead, I would be tossing up between Himmelberg and McGrath.
Himmelberg seems to have had a role change, with all the tall dramas happening at GWS.
McGrath is showing signs, small signs, that he might finish the season, how many people thought/hoped he might start it.
Both are very risky propositions, but when you shop below $400k, they always are!
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
Always happy to help, Mafia.
I think pegging Ahern in that 80 area is a reasonable expectation.
I like the idea of Miller at M9 for 2 reasons.
We're likely to see more carnage before the seasons out, and having decent Midfield cover is a good idea.
I'm hoping Dew throws away the book a little bit, and let's players like Miller go out and play their natural game. Miller has been used in quite a few run with roles this season, but if Dew gives him the "Ok, let's see what you can do!" license, he could easily finish the last few games as a useful 100-105 player.
4 trades for injuries from here is about what you want in your position, just to be safe.
I think pegging Ahern in that 80 area is a reasonable expectation.
I like the idea of Miller at M9 for 2 reasons.
We're likely to see more carnage before the seasons out, and having decent Midfield cover is a good idea.
I'm hoping Dew throws away the book a little bit, and let's players like Miller go out and play their natural game. Miller has been used in quite a few run with roles this season, but if Dew gives him the "Ok, let's see what you can do!" license, he could easily finish the last few games as a useful 100-105 player.
4 trades for injuries from here is about what you want in your position, just to be safe.
Hey Pro,
I'm not sure how your POD status has changed in the last 3 or 4 weeks, but when we last discussed Lloyd, I thought you had enough POD's against the leading bunch, to be able to "afford" to bring him in, and close that negative POD.
If you think most of those POD's have now closed, go Brayshaw. If you are still running with 4 or more POD's against those you are trying to overtake, go Lloyd.
Good luck, and well done on your season so far.
I'm not sure how your POD status has changed in the last 3 or 4 weeks, but when we last discussed Lloyd, I thought you had enough POD's against the leading bunch, to be able to "afford" to bring him in, and close that negative POD.
If you think most of those POD's have now closed, go Brayshaw. If you are still running with 4 or more POD's against those you are trying to overtake, go Lloyd.
Good luck, and well done on your season so far.
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hi rowsus
i am also looking to replace sicily this week. who would you trade in out of brayshaw and hurn? i am playing for leagues so the next two weeks doesnt matter as i have made the top 4 but the decision is based on what the avg for the finals and there finals draw. i am leaning towards hurn because they have the easier draw
i have 5 trades left. lloyd isnt an option as i need to upgrade walters. i have 140k in the bank. if i did bring in lloyd it will leave me with 60k to upgrade walters and there is not a lot of interesing options.
also do you think macrae can avg 115 from here? i think hutchins shuts him down this week but he has a nice run in finals
thanks so much row
i am also looking to replace sicily this week. who would you trade in out of brayshaw and hurn? i am playing for leagues so the next two weeks doesnt matter as i have made the top 4 but the decision is based on what the avg for the finals and there finals draw. i am leaning towards hurn because they have the easier draw
i have 5 trades left. lloyd isnt an option as i need to upgrade walters. i have 140k in the bank. if i did bring in lloyd it will leave me with 60k to upgrade walters and there is not a lot of interesing options.
also do you think macrae can avg 115 from here? i think hutchins shuts him down this week but he has a nice run in finals
thanks so much row
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Hi again Rowan,
I think Houli was the only value pick I was interested in when I looked earlier in the week, think I will have to join the sheep and just get the best I can, Might bring in Maj Daw for F McInnes as R3/F7 to cover Kreuze and then just see what I can get for the remaining funds to replace Sic, thanks for the input.
I think Houli was the only value pick I was interested in when I looked earlier in the week, think I will have to join the sheep and just get the best I can, Might bring in Maj Daw for F McInnes as R3/F7 to cover Kreuze and then just see what I can get for the remaining funds to replace Sic, thanks for the input.
Thanks for that Rowan
And what about Brayshaw (by himself) vs TMac? Seems the only thing splitting them is flexibility as I'm lacking a DEF/MID link in the midfield.
And what about Brayshaw (by himself) vs TMac? Seems the only thing splitting them is flexibility as I'm lacking a DEF/MID link in the midfield.
2 weeks ago I thought TMac might have Brayshaw covered by 3-5/game from here.
Opinions change, and now I'm not so sure.
Brayshaw worries me, as his points/disposal can get down around 3 regularly, which makes him a potential S Mitchell/M Crouch type, where he has 30+ disposals, but still scores in the 90's
TMac has gone through a dry spell. That's great for his price, if you are looking to trade him in, AND he can turn it around ......... but can/will he?
If you think the $30k saved by going TMac will make a difference in the future, go him, as it's really a toss of the coin. Otherwise, given you might be unlikely to get decent Def coverage to utilise TMac's D/F status properly, go Brayshaw.
A non-answer I know. Maybe all things being equal, go Brayshaw.
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