Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Darkie]

Hi Darkie, thanks for the feedback.
20/20 hindsight would have had us all trading Libba last week, that's for sure. Certainly some of the gloss has gone from the apple, now he's that much more expensive, but gee, he's still tempting! I'm not sure he's important, especially if you have all your Rookie ducks in a row.
Unfortunately, you can't get to Libba in one trade from Scott (or Atkins), which is a pity, as that would have been a nice move. Maybe you already have your other trade planned, and it is making a little more cash, but if not, I certainly wouldn't manufacture another trade, just to get one of them up to Libba.
Cousins looks like he still has $100k growth in him, and Libba on form looks to have a little more than that. I'm expecting Libba throws out an 85 or 90 this week, as Collingwood have been tough to score against, and Grundy will smash English. He gets a pretty good run of it in 7 of his next 10 after that though. If Libba scores an 85 he'll be roughly $440k, with a B/E of around 15. One more good score, and he hits $500k in 2 or 3 weeks. Not that you'd trade him until trouble hits, but that's a useful parachute if/when the trouble does hit.

I must admit, if I was a Fyfe owner, I'd probably do Fyfe ---> Libba this week. We don't know how or when Fyfe bounces back, and if he's not 100%, he could easily put in a couple of sub 100 scores. Meanwhile, the gap between him and Libba would be closing, so that also offers another potential get out clause.

Thanks very much Row - barring selection surprises I think this has sealed it for me.

I’ll welcome Fyfe back later!

 

[THCLT]

I must admit, if I was a Fyfe owner, I'd probably do Fyfe ---> Libba this week.

@Darkie doesn't need your voice of reason with regards to trading...particularly so for this upcoming round!

Where was this advice when I was posing the same query in the Mod forum...hahaha

 

[Pieman17]

Hey Pieman,
I'm glad you must haves in "", it's a phrase that is used way too much, particularly in the first half of the season.
I'm sure you have seen the Daedalus and Sisyphus threads. 3 Rounds is one short of where I prefer to start that sort of analysis, but let's look at Neale and Lloyd anyway.

Neale $646,300, priced to score 127, best season 22/113, 2018 was 22/112, 135 games coming into his 8th season tends to indicate he has set his scoring pattern. I'm not a big believer in changing clubs altering a players scoring profile too much, however, he might be open to a spike season. Not something you generally want to bet on though. He looks a solid 112-114 player on his history, so he is at least leaning against Sisyphus' Rock. With his expected price rise this week, he'll definitely be pushing the Rock from next week. Keep in mind, that last season Macrae was a good trade in up until about Round 6 or 7, and if you traded him after that time, you got a disappointing return for what you paid, even though there were some good scores to come! With Macrae in mind, this week might be the last opportunuty to get Neale at a comfortable price, for quite a few Rounds!

Lloyd $620,400, priced to score 122, best season was last season 22/112, 115 games coming into his 6th season is just outside a break out zone, so any significant improvement is likely to be a spike. It's hard to know if last years numbers, where he jumped 25/game, are his new norm, or will he have a correction, even if minor, like nearly every other player that jumped 20+ into the 110+ area. He's not quite pushing the Rock, but if he maintains his current form, he will be in 2 or 3 Rounds.

If you are keen to start moving on one, or the other, this week, it would seem Neale has a window of opportunity that closes this week. We don't know when it will re-open again. Lloyds window will still be open, probably, for 2 or 3 more weeks.
I might be biased in my opinions, but ...... Pendles is a 105 proposition these days, unless injuries cause a structure change. I'd be happy to use him to get Neale. Andrews is in my team, I think he should stay in yours. He'll throw in the odd poor score, but in general, I think he can be a solid D4/5. Dunkley isn't playing the SC friendly role, so far, but Bevo being Bevo, that can change from week to week. What does look likely, is that he is being adversely affected by Libba's good form. I'd be happy to move Dunkley to get one of these two players, too.
It's aggressive, but sometimes, that is what is neeeded.
Good luck!

Cheers Rowsus.

Think I’ll be trading Fyfe and Pendles to Neale and Libba this week, with the view of being Fyfe back in at a later date.

 

[Bermi]

Hi Bermi,
the reason you are struggling with this question is, it's a really tough question, that we all face!
I think people are generally too quick to dump some Rookies. Quite often it only takes a good half of football, and they are generating cash again!
Lockhart has only scored 32 and 57, and would seem to have questionable JS. Even if he stays in the team, he looks like only making $100-120k. It's not top shelf, and while better than how Hore looks, I'm not sure I'd burn a trade for that sort of return.
Wagner has gone 61, DNP, 65 so looks a better money making prospect than Lockhart, but his JS too, is questionable. Melbourne have players to come back, and I don't think he is best 22. If Gibbons picked this week, I think I'd just stick with him (I don't have him), if he's not, it's nearly a flip of the coin if it is worth the trade, or not. Generally, if you are not sure, don't trade!

Good info as usual Rowsus.
You know that we are playing against each other in the Lock&Load Comp this weekend, so I feel that I must warn you that I plan to give my team a pep talk. And as an incentive to beat you, I'll promise them a 'cool' camping holiday in Denmark at season's end (only if I win the $50K SC first prize) .
Anyway good luck. (Ah, who am I kidding, you know that I don't mean it ).

 

[Pieman17]

Hi Rowsus,

Back again, need all the help which my terrible start to year.

What’s your thoughts on Dunkley to Marshall. Obviously it is quite a sideways move but feel Dunkley could end up around that’s 80-85 average and being a ‘nothing’ pick where Marshall is on track to push towards a 95+ average. Does it warrant the trade, this would be 6th ‘sideways’ move so far with English to Mummy my other trade for the week. I’m usually aggressive early with corrections but not sure if this is overkill.

I have similar questions about Oliver and Crisp and whether the warrant a trade.

Cheers Pieman

 

[anfa18]

English is going to be a bigger problem. It's not an easy upgrade, and he's making no money. For the moment, I will just ride him out, and keep a very close eye out for an escape route!

Hi Rowsus. I am also an English owner looking for an escape route. What are your thoughts on a trade to Mumford?

I will be holding fir for one more week but if Mumford scores 85 plus will strongly consider pulling the trigger

I'm in the same boat and i'll be making the trade unless something dire happens. He's scoring 40-50+ more than English and should make 100k well before the byes on his current form. Obvious questions on his ability to play a full season, but i'm pretty much hoping for 4-6 more consecutive games. I'm not sure i see another path to Grundy/Gawn at the moment.

New info coming through that Sauce may be out for more time, making ROB an interesting prospect if Sauce is out for 3-4 more weeks.

Trades i'm looking at...
English > Mummy
Bines > ROB
Butters > Hore

Thoughts?

 

[Zoku Pops]

Hey mate, my season hasn't got off to the best start and I'm contemplating a risky Gawn to Mumford trade to free up 300k to invest elsewhere.

Mumford has a friendly ruck draw coming up and I'd be hoping he could last until his bye, when I could then trade him back to Gawn. You'd also obviously be hoping Preuss affects Gawn more than he did on the weekend.

Do you think the idea has any merit? Or is it simply not worth it? I've already got 160k so it would mean I'd have 460k to double upgrade next week.

 

[Bermi]

Hi again Rowsus,

Westhoff is causing me to lose League Games. It appears that he has a key forward position now until Dixon comes back, who is out indefinitely (and that sounds like a long time). Last night, the very helpful 'Rd5 Trades' Forum suggested that Marshall could come back in and free Westhoff, but I see Marshall as not being AFL ready yet (a 198cm 20yo, who played the first 2 games this season, then was dropped) . So it appears to me that, 33yo this year, Westhoff is stuck up forward for a long time and he's not scoring goals.

The reason I got Westhoff in was to be a Fwd Keeper AND a Ruck Emergency, if one of my ruckmen is out for a week or 2.
Westhoff has cost me $113K so far and is projected to drop another $40K this weekend, highly likely playing WCE this week who have a very good defence.

Everything is pointing to me that he should be traded out and I am struggling to find a reason to keep him, to save a trade!

If I decide to keep Westhoff, it would mainly be to have as a Ruck Emergency, but that backfired on me last year, when I kept Mason Cox all year and I didn't have any ruck injuries, but Cox wasn't expensive at least.

If I decide to trade Westhoff out, I would like to replace him with another playing Fwd/Ruc, but there aren't any that I like. The only one that I am considering is Jordan Roughead.

Jordan Roughead, who will be 29yo, playing for a new team, playing a new role, whose average scoring is now more than in past years, good job security (Dunn is out), playing in a good team and is $31K cheaper then Westhoff. I'm hoping Roughead could be an 80+ avg player, (better then a 60 avg player in Westhoff) and be a Ruck Emergency.

Or I could just forget about having a Ruck Emergency and just select another Fwd player.

So, I would like your thoughts/suggestions on Westhoff, Roughead and what could be the best choice to make please.

By the way, I typed this long letter quickly so it wouldn't take too much of your time reading it

EDIT:
What set the alarm bells ringing was that Westhoff has scored 3 below 50pts scores in a row. He has never scored 3 scores below 50 in his last 9 seasons. 2 at the most and that's over the whole season, not next to each other at the start of a season.
That is saying something is terribly wrong, I just don't know what, but it can't be good.
Also,
Fwd/Ruc Lobb is a consideration too, but he has trouble playing a full season lately and I want a reliable player to fill that Fwd/Ruc Reserve player and I have more confidence in Roughead.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,

Still struggling with my team.
No trades yet as I struggle with the rookies etc.
Which is the biggest risk or are they both too risky?

Option 1
English to Mumford and rookie trade
Eg. Butters to Stack or Burgess to Hore

Option 2
English to OBrien
Cousins (could miss) to Zerritt or Heeney in mids

Option 3
Nothing and wait another week

 

[TommyGobbler]

Hey mate, keen to get your thoughts on Dom Sheed.

Since Gaff has come back it seems his role has changed. R3 he played 49% forward and last week 43% forward. I believe it was closer to 90% mid prior.

Ideally I'd like to hold for one more week but this week presents a chance to restructure by trading Sheed to Lloyd.

Would you be more inclined to hold or is a proactive trade warranted? Cheers

 

[Leroy]

Hey mate, keen to get your thoughts on Dom Sheed.

Since Gaff has come back it seems his role has changed. R3 he played 49% forward and last week 43% forward. I believe it was closer to 90% mid prior.

Ideally I'd like to hold for one more week but this week presents a chance to restructure by trading Sheed to Lloyd.

Would you be more inclined to hold or is a proactive trade warranted? Cheers

I'm no Rowsus but I would say now is the oppourtune moment... Sheed has scored well, made some cash (maybe 30k short of what you'd want but there you go) but has hit a $$$ wall now with that 65 in there. I'm moving him on - welcome Zach Merret!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Back again, need all the help which my terrible start to year.

What’s your thoughts on Dunkley to Marshall. Obviously it is quite a sideways move but feel Dunkley could end up around that’s 80-85 average and being a ‘nothing’ pick where Marshall is on track to push towards a 95+ average. Does it warrant the trade, this would be 6th ‘sideways’ move so far with English to Mummy my other trade for the week. I’m usually aggressive early with corrections but not sure if this is overkill.

I have similar questions about Oliver and Crisp and whether the warrant a trade.

Cheers Pieman

Hi P17,
Dunkley isn't playing the role you picked him for, and it looks like he needs an injury or two at the kennel, before he'll get back to it. One score over 80, and a B/E of 120, I'd definitely move him on.
Marshall is an enormous question mark, isn't he? Can he keep going, or at least average something like 93 from here, and make for bup-bup F6? Is Longer lurking in the wings?
Marshall's price of $406k means he can only be taken asa Keeper, as he certainly needs to score at Keeper level, to make enough cash from here, to be any sort of Stepping Stone.
You might just be swapping one 85 players for another, but you might also be getting a high 90's player for a bargain price. It's a risk.
The general rule of thumb, once you have made one or two sideways correction trades, is to stop doing them, and if you trade a player like Dunkley now, it should be all the way down to a bubble boy, or up to a safer commodity. There are no Fwd bubble boys, and if you are lacking cash to take Dunkley up, I guess you are left with risking Marshall, or Bolton. Both come with risks attached. Maybe if cash is a problem, Marshall might be the "safer" option, but with Cotchin 2-3 weeks, Short indefinite, Bolton might possibly make some cash. Against those other 2 injuries, Houli and Weller might be back this week. Taking Bolton before his bubble is no doubt very risky, too. I think he may be safe this week, but he could disappear, just as he gets to the bubble.
If no cash, toss a coin, if you have cash, try and take Dunkley up to a safer option.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

 

[Rowsus]

I'm in the same boat and i'll be making the trade unless something dire happens. He's scoring 40-50+ more than English and should make 100k well before the byes on his current form. Obvious questions on his ability to play a full season, but i'm pretty much hoping for 4-6 more consecutive games. I'm not sure i see another path to Grundy/Gawn at the moment.

New info coming through that Sauce may be out for more time, making ROB an interesting prospect if Sauce is out for 3-4 more weeks.

Trades i'm looking at...
English > Mummy
Bines > ROB
Butters > Hore

Thoughts?

ROB in, one way or another, looks a good move this week.
I'm not sure about Hore. Yes, he played well in Rnd 4, and most likely plays this week, but his JS must be considered incredibly shakey!!!!
Jetta and Lewis back, KK and Lockhart possibly too, I wouldn't count on Hore playing more than 1 or 2 more games in the coming weeks, unless we get more injuries.
We all know the risk with Mummy, so no need to go into that, and I'm assuming you have another Captain loophole outside of Bines, so if you are happy to risk Mummy, then the first 2 look ok.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey mate, my season hasn't got off to the best start and I'm contemplating a risky Gawn to Mumford trade to free up 300k to invest elsewhere.

Mumford has a friendly ruck draw coming up and I'd be hoping he could last until his bye, when I could then trade him back to Gawn. You'd also obviously be hoping Preuss affects Gawn more than he did on the weekend.

Do you think the idea has any merit? Or is it simply not worth it? I've already got 160k so it would mean I'd have 460k to double upgrade next week.

I don't like it too much. You need things to go really well, to use 2 trades, to profit $200k
Mummy up $130-$140k (IF he stays on the park), Gawn to come down $60-$70k, hence $200k profit, but probably a total of 80-100 points lost in that time, too.
Generally if you are going to burn a high priced Prem, you want the them to have a 180+ B/E (Gawn is B/E 137), so you are a good chance they'll drop $100k+. Your plan also fails to fit the other clause for burning a high priced Prem, that you get a 2 for 1 Prem on the deal. I don't think Mummy counts as a Prem, so the only other time this plan works, is if you think for some reason Gawn will score sub 100 while out of your team.
Not enough return for the trades used, so I wouldn't do it.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi again Rowsus,

Westhoff is causing me to lose League Games. It appears that he has a key forward position now until Dixon comes back, who is out indefinitely (and that sounds like a long time). Last night, the very helpful 'Rd5 Trades' Forum suggested that Marshall could come back in and free Westhoff, but I see Marshall as not being AFL ready yet (a 198cm 20yo, who played the first 2 games this season, then was dropped) . So it appears to me that, 33yo this year, Westhoff is stuck up forward for a long time and he's not scoring goals.

The reason I got Westhoff in was to be a Fwd Keeper AND a Ruck Emergency, if one of my ruckmen is out for a week or 2.
Westhoff has cost me $113K so far and is projected to drop another $40K this weekend, highly likely playing WCE this week who have a very good defence.

Everything is pointing to me that he should be traded out and I am struggling to find a reason to keep him, to save a trade!

If I decide to keep Westhoff, it would mainly be to have as a Ruck Emergency, but that backfired on me last year, when I kept Mason Cox all year and I didn't have any ruck injuries, but Cox wasn't expensive at least.

If I decide to trade Westhoff out, I would like to replace him with another playing Fwd/Ruc, but there aren't any that I like. The only one that I am considering is Jordan Roughead.

Jordan Roughead, who will be 29yo, playing for a new team, playing a new role, whose average scoring is now more than in past years, good job security (Dunn is out), playing in a good team and is $31K cheaper then Westhoff. I'm hoping Roughead could be an 80+ avg player, (better then a 60 avg player in Westhoff) and be a Ruck Emergency.

Or I could just forget about having a Ruck Emergency and just select another Fwd player.

So, I would like your thoughts/suggestions on Westhoff, Roughead and what could be the best choice to make please.

By the way, I typed this long letter quickly so it wouldn't take too much of your time reading it

EDIT:
What set the alarm bells ringing was that Westhoff has scored 3 below 50pts scores in a row. He has never scored 3 scores below 50 in his last 9 seasons. 2 at the most and that's over the whole season, not next to each other at the start of a season.
That is saying something is terribly wrong, I just don't know what, but it can't be good.
Also,
Fwd/Ruc Lobb is a consideration too, but he has trouble playing a full season lately and I want a reliable player to fill that Fwd/Ruc Reserve player and I have more confidence in Roughead.

Hi again, Bermi.
Not trying to play 20/20 hindsight expert, but I must admit, I did wonder what those that took Westhoff were expecting from him this season. 32 years old, the 4 seasons prior to 2018 he averaged 22/89.5, and was priced as 100+ player. His 2018 had late career spike written all over it!
Still, that's not helping you now. I think trading Westhoff to Roughead would be a big mistake. I think you'd be trading one disappointment for another, similarly with Lobb. At least with Westhoff, you know he has a big ceiling, and can go on a 100+ run for a number of games.
If you are keen for Ruck cover, keep Westhoff. If your desire to rid yourself of Westhoff outweighs your Ruck cover desire, then either take Westhoff all the way down to a Rookie, or up to a better Keeper, if you have the cash. If you have Bines, Westhoff to ROB might be an option, depending on those doubtful Fwd selections this week.
Your proposal seems too like for like, and dealing with disappointing players.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

Still struggling with my team.
No trades yet as I struggle with the rookies etc.
Which is the biggest risk or are they both too risky?

Option 1
English to Mumford and rookie trade
Eg. Butters to Stack or Burgess to Hore

Option 2
English to OBrien
Cousins (could miss) to Zerritt or Heeney in mids

Option 3
Nothing and wait another week

Hey Slam,
I'm not sold on trading Hore in. His JS isn't terrific, even with last weeks good game. Melbourne has 3 or 4 players back this week or next week, that could see Hore out again.
I like Option 2. Merrett is really well priced, has a decent history when in form, and has a 56 B/E. English to ROB seems the easy option this week, for us disappointed English owners. Even though English is making (very) slow improvement, an exit ramp has presented, and we should take it!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey mate, keen to get your thoughts on Dom Sheed.

Since Gaff has come back it seems his role has changed. R3 he played 49% forward and last week 43% forward. I believe it was closer to 90% mid prior.

Ideally I'd like to hold for one more week but this week presents a chance to restructure by trading Sheed to Lloyd.

Would you be more inclined to hold or is a proactive trade warranted? Cheers

I'm no Rowsus but I would say now is the oppourtune moment... Sheed has scored well, made some cash (maybe 30k short of what you'd want but there you go) but has hit a $$$ wall now with that 65 in there. I'm moving him on - welcome Zach Merret!

Hey TG.
Sheed was an incredibly risk pick, he's made a little money, shown the risk was too great, and now needs to go!
His hot form at the end of last season was without Gaff, his good score in Round 1 was without Gaff. I think he will be a 95-ish player from here, so only has another $30k odd to make.
If you have the opportunity to trade him to Lloyd or Merrett, I'd do it.

 

[Bermi]

Hi again, Bermi.
Not trying to play 20/20 hindsight expert, but I must admit, I did wonder what those that took Westhoff were expecting from him this season. 32 years old, the 4 seasons prior to 2018 he averaged 22/89.5, and was priced as 100+ player. His 2018 had late career spike written all over it!
Still, that's not helping you now. I think trading Westhoff to Roughead would be a big mistake. I think you'd be trading one disappointment for another, similarly with Lobb. At least with Westhoff, you know he has a big ceiling, and can go on a 100+ run for a number of games.
If you are keen for Ruck cover, keep Westhoff. If your desire to rid yourself of Westhoff outweighs your Ruck cover desire, then either take Westhoff all the way down to a Rookie, or up to a better Keeper, if you have the cash. If you have Bines, Westhoff to ROB might be an option, depending on those doubtful Fwd selections this week.
Your proposal seems too like for like, and dealing with disappointing players.

Thanks Rowsus for stating the logical, which is sometimes hard to see when my emotions are involved
For starting Westhoff, it was simply for peace of mind knowing that I have a Ruck Emergency to save a trade (or 2) if one of my ruckmen is out for a game or 2. And hoping he could avg around 90 and end up a F6.
Westhoff must go and I gamble that Grundy and Gawn play the whole season.

 

[Pieman17]

Hi P17,
Dunkley isn't playing the role you picked him for, and it looks like he needs an injury or two at the kennel, before he'll get back to it. One score over 80, and a B/E of 120, I'd definitely move him on.
Marshall is an enormous question mark, isn't he? Can he keep going, or at least average something like 93 from here, and make for bup-bup F6? Is Longer lurking in the wings?
Marshall's price of $406k means he can only be taken asa Keeper, as he certainly needs to score at Keeper level, to make enough cash from here, to be any sort of Stepping Stone.
You might just be swapping one 85 players for another, but you might also be getting a high 90's player for a bargain price. It's a risk.
The general rule of thumb, once you have made one or two sideways correction trades, is to stop doing them, and if you trade a player like Dunkley now, it should be all the way down to a bubble boy, or up to a safer commodity. There are no Fwd bubble boys, and if you are lacking cash to take Dunkley up, I guess you are left with risking Marshall, or Bolton. Both come with risks attached. Maybe if cash is a problem, Marshall might be the "safer" option, but with Cotchin 2-3 weeks, Short indefinite, Bolton might possibly make some cash. Against those other 2 injuries, Houli and Weller might be back this week. Taking Bolton before his bubble is no doubt very risky, too. I think he may be safe this week, but he could disappear, just as he gets to the bubble.
If no cash, toss a coin, if you have cash, try and take Dunkley up to a safer option.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Cheers,
I can trade Dunkley to O’Brien via DPPs so that might be the option before some upgrades next week.

 

[Cattleherder]

Thanks Rowsus for stating the logical, which is sometimes hard to see when my emotions are involved
For starting Westhoff, it was simply for peace of mind knowing that I have a Ruck Emergency to save a trade (or 2) if one of my ruckmen is out for a game or 2. And hoping he could avg around 90 and end up a F6.
Westhoff must go and I gamble that Grundy and Gawn play the whole season.

Hi Bermi. Fellow Hoff holder here. Have you considered Newnes - dpp with mids, averaging in 90’s, $403,000 price so you will make a bit of cash. Lose the ruck backup however. Seems the best option IMO if you want to sideways trade him.

The other option is to grit your teeth and keep him. He can’t be that bad all season but unlikely to be 100ppg player as Rowsus points out. Perhaps 80 -90. And who knows when you might find that ruck dpp useful. You can use the trade saved on upgrading elsewhere a rookie - still looks the better option to me if you do the sums.

Haven’t considered Rowsus suggestion to trade him out for a rookie but it should give you the cash to upgrade a rookie to T Kelly when he finishes his price drop in a few weeks.
This is the trouble with SuperCoach - too many options! All the best and I would like to know what you decide.