Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

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Hey Row,


Normally I'm against sideways trading but I'm seriously considering cogs -> macrae. I'm not sure why but cogs looks different to last year despite a similar output. I've read that he spent 34% in the forward 50 v hawks and was 4th CBA for the giants.

Macrae @ 574k looks incredibly tempting but I'm not sure if this is a rational decision. Any thoughts?
Hey Steu,
it strikes me as the type of trade you'd do, if you like to use your trades each week, but can't find anything better to do. As you have mentioned you are normally against sideways trading, I'd have to say don't do it.
Looking at what they might average from here, if we say Cogs is 103-105 from here, and Macrae is 117-119 from here, then your gain is 12-16/game. 14 games left, so 168-192 points, for burning a trade and $68,500. While those near potential 200 points looks ok, I think it comes up just short of what you want from a trade at this time of the year, and the cash is what pushes past the no value point. If you could straight swap them, and there were no other trades that needed doing, it might pass they eye test, just. I'm sure there will be weeks you will wish you had done it, but I'm just as sure, there will be times you held off, too.

TL,DR - just short of the required value, and against your normal trading pattern, so you probably shouldn't do it.
 

blue dreamer

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In his career he has averaged 95 twice, in 2016 and 2013, and they are his only seasons over 90.
He's capable of going on good 7 or 8 game streaks, which has sucked a few people in, in the past.
This is currently a 2 game streak.
You might get some short term pleasure out of having him, but I would have to back against him proving to be a good pick from here, to the finish.
Just did some very quick and dirty maths on Ziebell and if you call his last three seasons the mean should ave approx. 97 and miss one game from here on to revert to a mean of 21 games @ 90.

If my maths is right
 

blue dreamer

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Hi Row,

Last week T Kelly was in my side for four days and then reversed when Mummy was out as I refused to take a donut this early in the season.

I traded back in Hoff instead.

Stop it guys I can hear everyone laughing at me:mad::cry:

My initial thoughts were to bring Kelly in this week but I am wavering.

19 trades and 357k.

With the slightly limited trades I feel a double upgrade to Heath Shaw and T Mac might ensure I get to full premo where a one up to Kelly might not.

Kelly doesn't have a long enough history to have a meaningful "mean" yet (wonders if that is grammatically correct)) but I note that last year his first 8 went at 99.9 and his last 14 at 89.4. There has to be some doubt on his continuing at 107.5.

Heath seems to have begun his possible reversion to the mean which if my maths is right and only using the last three years as a sample (which I do as I feel that older than that is more ancient history), so to finish with 21 @ 93 he should go at 100 in 13.

T Mac has also seemed to turn it around of late and again using the last three years figures would finish with 21 @ 90. His start was so poor that he would need to go at 109 from here but a solid reversion to the mean would still have him scoring at a more than acceptable level from here.

I haven't seen much of either player so this is just maths and a bit of gut feel but is this a reasonable trade scenario for this week and looking forward how do you think these two will go.

The alternative is one up to T Kelly as I am not enamoured with any of this weeks bubble boys
 

Deeman1

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Hi Rowan,

Trust you are well.

After reaching around 1,400 2 weeks ago my team has hit a bit of a flat spot and dropped back to around 4k mark and am somewhat at the crossroads. This is what I'm looking at 19 trades and 280k ITB

Ryan, Williams, Smith, Moore, Hore, Duursma (Wilkie, Answerth)
Cripps, MCrouch, Oliver, Coniglio, BCrouch, Liber, Walsh, Atkins (Gibbons, Hayes, Scott)
Gawn, Grundy (ROB)
Danger, Boak, TKelly, Billings, Heeney, Drew (Bines, Baker)

Problems being Atkins in M8, Liber and Walsh now bleeding cash.

Interested in your thoughts on options:

Liber and Walsh to Macrae and Merrett/Sloane or Dunkley, leaving next to no cash.

Or

Gibbons and Atkins to Stocker and Macrae/Fyfe

Option 1 solves the Liber and Walsh bleeding cash problem, but leaves Atkins/Hayes/Gibbons as M8. Option 2 solves the M8 problem, but not the Liber/Walsh bleeding cash problem.

Would love to know your thoughts on the best way forward.

Thanks in advance!
 

THCLT

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Rowan,

As we're now well and truly entrenched in that upgrading phase of an SC season, and this question is particularly for the benefit of those coaches who selectively upgrade with the MBRs in mind...

How much emphasis should one place on just getting the 'best' players available regardless of their bye round or should one be more 'surgeon' like when upgrading to ensure a more favourable balance over the MBRs, even if it means delaying the upgrade and potentially paying overs...?

Where should one draw the line (if one does indeed exist)...? Does one approach outweigh the other...?

You can use the following group of players as examples if you need to refer to them:

Sicily, Fyfe, Dunkley

Lloyd, Oliver, TKelly

Whitfield, JKelly, JCameron
 
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Rowsus

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Just did some very quick and dirty maths on Ziebell and if you call his last three seasons the mean should ave approx. 97 and miss one game from here on to revert to a mean of 21 games @ 90.

If my maths is right
Your maths is in the ball park, but I'm not backing him to achieve those numbers.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row,

Last week T Kelly was in my side for four days and then reversed when Mummy was out as I refused to take a donut this early in the season.

I traded back in Hoff instead.

Stop it guys I can hear everyone laughing at me:mad::cry:

My initial thoughts were to bring Kelly in this week but I am wavering.

19 trades and 357k.

With the slightly limited trades I feel a double upgrade to Heath Shaw and T Mac might ensure I get to full premo where a one up to Kelly might not.

Kelly doesn't have a long enough history to have a meaningful "mean" yet (wonders if that is grammatically correct)) but I note that last year his first 8 went at 99.9 and his last 14 at 89.4. There has to be some doubt on his continuing at 107.5.

Heath seems to have begun his possible reversion to the mean which if my maths is right and only using the last three years as a sample (which I do as I feel that older than that is more ancient history), so to finish with 21 @ 93 he should go at 100 in 13.

T Mac has also seemed to turn it around of late and again using the last three years figures would finish with 21 @ 90. His start was so poor that he would need to go at 109 from here but a solid reversion to the mean would still have him scoring at a more than acceptable level from here.

I haven't seen much of either player so this is just maths and a bit of gut feel but is this a reasonable trade scenario for this week and looking forward how do you think these two will go.

The alternative is one up to T Kelly as I am not enamoured with any of this weeks bubble boys
Hi Brian,
I guess it comes down to that same old question, of expectations. What do you expect the 3 main characters in this story to produce from here? Reversion to the mean is one thing, expectations are something else. History says they usually don't quite revert to the mean, if they are a decent amount behind it. They tend to make ground in that direction, but not quite get all the way there. The anatomy tables usually go close in their adjustemnts, so I would probably adjust those numbers down a bit, as your initial figures are more like prior to Round 1 numbers, and not adjusted for what we know now. Reaching the reversion numbers is harder for a player that behind and trying to catch up, where as players that above their mean, find it much easier to come back down to Earth again.
So, as I say, what is your expectation from here?
My guess is:
Telly 13/105 - conservatively
TMac 13/90
Heater 13/87
TMac and Heater combine to cost $841,900 and 2 trades. Kelly costs $533,300.
Let's assume the two players you are trading out come to about $580k.
TMac and Heater leave you 17 trades and around $50k
Telly leaves you 18 trades and around $65k, if you are using Parker.
TMac and Heater will give you a PIT60 total of 2,421 points
Telly gives you 1,425, leaving you 996 points short. The Rookie you haven't upgraded produces 840 points, leaving your trade and $15k needing to produce 996 - 840 = 156 points.
$15k and a trade probably won't get you those 156 points, as the $15k doesn't allow for much of an upgrade. This is where the concept of "half trades" kicks in. By a half trade, that can mean for example where you upgrade a Walsh type, and it doesn't use all the cash from a downgrade, leaving you half to add into this trade. I do believe the trade and some loose change beats TMac and Heater.
It seems a bit early to be plunging on 2 speculative value picks. Yes, you are well in front if they pay off, but you are generally better to fill with quality first, and then make your last upgrades more speculative.
If you are confident in TMac and Heater, then absolutely go for it! If you are more hoping than confident, then Telly is probably the better option for now.
Good luck whichever way you jump!
 

blue dreamer

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Hi Brian,
I guess it comes down to that same old question, of expectations. What do you expect the 3 main characters in this story to produce from here? Reversion to the mean is one thing, expectations are something else. History says they usually don't quite revert to the mean, if they are a decent amount behind it. They tend to make ground in that direction, but not quite get all the way there. The anatomy tables usually go close in their adjustemnts, so I would probably adjust those numbers down a bit, as your initial figures are more like prior to Round 1 numbers, and not adjusted for what we know now. Reaching the reversion numbers is harder for a player that behind and trying to catch up, where as players that above their mean, find it much easier to come back down to Earth again.
So, as I say, what is your expectation from here?
My guess is:
Telly 13/105 - conservatively
TMac 13/90
Heater 13/87
TMac and Heater combine to cost $841,900 and 2 trades. Kelly costs $533,300.
Let's assume the two players you are trading out come to about $580k.
TMac and Heater leave you 17 trades and around $50k
Telly leaves you 18 trades and around $65k, if you are using Parker.
TMac and Heater will give you a PIT60 total of 2,421 points
Telly gives you 1,425, leaving you 996 points short. The Rookie you haven't upgraded produces 840 points, leaving your trade and $15k needing to produce 996 - 840 = 156 points.
$15k and a trade probably won't get you those 156 points, as the $15k doesn't allow for much of an upgrade. This is where the concept of "half trades" kicks in. By a half trade, that can mean for example where you upgrade a Walsh type, and it doesn't use all the cash from a downgrade, leaving you half to add into this trade. I do believe the trade and some loose change beats TMac and Heater.
It seems a bit early to be plunging on 2 speculative value picks. Yes, you are well in front if they pay off, but you are generally better to fill with quality first, and then make your last upgrades more speculative.
If you are confident in TMac and Heater, then absolutely go for it! If you are more hoping than confident, then Telly is probably the better option for now.
Good luck whichever way you jump!
Thanks Rowan, not quite what I was hoping for but agree that the further the season goes the harder it is to fully revert to the mean.

I am somewhat confident in Heater and a bit less on T Mac.

Guess I still have a couple of days to think on this and see how it looks, if you conservatively think Telly goes at 105 from here it might be the way to go.

Hmmmmmmm:unsure:
 

Slammer

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Hey Rows,

Having a shocker this year.
Just when I think my team is ok I get smashed with
injuries and/or poor performance from premos.
Eg. Andrews, Whitfield and Cogs, Brayshaw, Wallis
Now I am facing the likes of Cogs,Wallis and in particular Brayshaw losing even more cash.
Together with the non playing rookies in BScott, Burgess and ROB as R2 I am in a little bit of trouble.
Should I battle away with Brayshaw and Wallis and continue trying to go one up one down with the likes of Parker and Drew/Dursmaa etc.
Or with my 100k in bank and another downgrade bite the bullet on Brayshaw or Wallis and turn into a Fyfe or Gaff/Yeo or Sloane
I am thinking Brayshaw must go as he about to leak more cash.
With West Coast starting to look a little better I looking at Gaff or Yeo. Gaff very consistent but Yeo more likely to go big. Sloane goes against my plan of trying to stay away from older players but he is going ok.
 
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Rowsus

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Hi Rowan,

Trust you are well.

After reaching around 1,400 2 weeks ago my team has hit a bit of a flat spot and dropped back to around 4k mark and am somewhat at the crossroads. This is what I'm looking at 19 trades and 280k ITB

Ryan, Williams, Smith, Moore, Hore, Duursma (Wilkie, Answerth)
Cripps, MCrouch, Oliver, Coniglio, BCrouch, Liber, Walsh, Atkins (Gibbons, Hayes, Scott)
Gawn, Grundy (ROB)
Danger, Boak, TKelly, Billings, Heeney, Drew (Bines, Baker)

Problems being Atkins in M8, Liber and Walsh now bleeding cash.

Interested in your thoughts on options:

Liber and Walsh to Macrae and Merrett/Sloane or Dunkley, leaving next to no cash.

Or

Gibbons and Atkins to Stocker and Macrae/Fyfe

Option 1 solves the Liber and Walsh bleeding cash problem, but leaves Atkins/Hayes/Gibbons as M8. Option 2 solves the M8 problem, but not the Liber/Walsh bleeding cash problem.

Would love to know your thoughts on the best way forward.

Thanks in advance!
Hi Ash,
I'm travelling ok, for an old fella,I hope you're going ok, too.
It looks like a conservation of value problem. It'sa real problem, especially this year, it seems. So let's break the candidates down:
Libba $429,100 - B/E 124 - Last 3: 72, 58, 71
Walsh $439,000 - B/E 101 - Last 3: 70, 89, 79
Atkins $256,100 - B/E 53 - Last 3: 12, 87, 47
Gibbons $270,300 - B/E 44 - Last 3: 61, 55, 51
While Libba has the greatest potential to bust out a big score, he also sits with the greatest potential to lose cash, of the 4 players in question. Walsh looks like he is feeling the affects of a long pre-season, and a lack of experience. He has started games well lately, and then faded in the 2nd halves of games. I suspect they might manage him soon. Either way, he looked like an 80-85 player, that managed some good games, to ma anyway, so that means apart from a little dip, if the tiredness continues, he's priced about where he will be. I expect him to get a 2nd wind at some stage, and look good again, but then fade again. Atkins is probably 50/50 to play, of the 4 he probably has the best potential to squeeze out a little more growth, but that might take until the byes, as we need the 12 out of his cycle. Gibbons has overperformed. He's priced higher than his potential, and my guess is he might start to slowly leak, after this week.
The problem is exacerbated by their being no strong downgrade options this week. Stocker looks iffy for scoring, and Hately iffy for JS. Next week doesn't look much better, as those Rookie priced players that played their first game in Round 8 all scored poorly too.
Under a pure conservation of value approach, it would seem that Libba and Walsh out are the best candidates, and that dovetails well with their being no juicy downgrade targets.
So Walsh, Libba out + $280k - Macrae = $574k to spend. From the numbers you have provided, I think you fall just short of Merret. If the $280k was just a round number, and you can afford Merrett, I think I'd grab him over Sloane.
Dunkley doesn't interest me too much. It was only 2 weeks ago people were bemoaning how poor he has been, and 2 good scores later, people are queueing up to get him. Which is the real Dunkley? The answer is, we just don't know, so he's a bit too risky, in the long term. The short term risk is low, as his B/E is only 35, but that is secondary, as you are not loking to trade him out again.
I'll vote for your first proposal. Walsh/Libba to Macrae/Merrett, assuming you can reach Merrett.
 

Rowsus

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Rowan,

As we're now well and truly entrenched in that upgrading phase of an SC season, and this question is particularly for the benefit of those coaches who selectively upgrade with the MBRs in mind...

How much emphasis should one place on just getting the 'best' players available regardless of their bye round or should one be more 'surgeon' like when upgrading to ensure a more favourable balance over the MBRs, even if it means delaying the upgrade and potentially paying overs...?

Where should one draw the line (if one does indeed exist)...? Does one approach outweigh the other...?

You can use the following group of players as examples if you need to refer to them:

Sicily, Fyfe, Dunkley

Lloyd, Oliver, TKelly

Whitfield, JKelly, JCameron
Thanh,
it's an important question, as people underestimate how a well planned MBR period can gain as much 400 points, compared to a poorly planned MBR period. Let's assume people aren't completely lopsided, and aren't sitting something like: 4, 9, 3 in their Keepers bye break up numbers.
My general advice would be this:
Divide your trade in upgrade targets into 3 catagories.
Elite - expected to score 115+
Safe - should score 108 - 114
Speculative - you're hoping to land a high scoring POD.
This obviously dodges around your better scoring Defs and Fwds, in the high 90's low 100's area. Given the potential difference between them, and the 108+ players, I would be treating these the same way as speculative picks, even though they may be considered safe picks, for their position.
If the timing is right, price-wise etc, trade in an Elite in at anytime, regardless of the bye structure.
If you are looking a bit top heavy in one round over the other 2, you should probably avoid trading in even a safe selection.
Any speculative pick needs to be into an area where you might already be low on players from that bye Round. It only makes the risk higher, if it is also going to potentially cause you problems in the MBR's.
If you are going to overload a Round at this early stage, make it Round 14 players. They are the easiest to slingshot, and the "hardest" to trade in nearing the byes.
 

THCLT

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Divide your trade in upgrade targets into 3 catagories.
Elite - expected to score 115+
Safe - should score 108 - 114
Speculative - you're hoping to land a high scoring POD.
Many thanks Rowan, the above hasn't been something I've put an emphasis on but will incorporate to my list of considerations now that you've brought it to my attention.
 

Rumbler

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Hi Rowsus,

This season is the first time I’m playing SC and up until now I’ve just been playing for fun with no real plan or strategy with what I’m doing!! I’m part of a 10 team league with people from work and currently have a pretty bad record of 3 wins and 4 losses in my H2H matchups.

If possible, I was hoping to get your opinion on my team below and any advice regarding trade targets and bye round selections would be much appreciated! I don’t know what to expect during the bye rounds but I imagine it’ll be very difficult to get consistent point scoring.

As you would notice, I’ve got injury and cash issues at the moment. I’m thinking to trade out Butters and Ross but I’m not really convinced about the new rookies to bring in. Hately seems to have a low JS.
Is it a bad idea to trade out either Walsh or Rozee right now along with one of my benched rookies for someone like Dunkley/Cameron?
Or should I save my trades for the bye rounds?
Open to any suggestions!

Thanks for your time!

85ECBD6D-026F-4ADA-87D2-1C108251AD3A.png
0153B0EF-36AE-42E0-8301-F04FE7572D94.png
 

Deeman1

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Hi Ash,
I'm travelling ok, for an old fella,I hope you're going ok, too.
It looks like a conservation of value problem. It'sa real problem, especially this year, it seems. So let's break the candidates down:
Libba $429,100 - B/E 124 - Last 3: 72, 58, 71
Walsh $439,000 - B/E 101 - Last 3: 70, 89, 79
Atkins $256,100 - B/E 53 - Last 3: 12, 87, 47
Gibbons $270,300 - B/E 44 - Last 3: 61, 55, 51
While Libba has the greatest potential to bust out a big score, he also sits with the greatest potential to lose cash, of the 4 players in question. Walsh looks like he is feeling the affects of a long pre-season, and a lack of experience. He has started games well lately, and then faded in the 2nd halves of games. I suspect they might manage him soon. Either way, he looked like an 80-85 player, that managed some good games, to ma anyway, so that means apart from a little dip, if the tiredness continues, he's priced about where he will be. I expect him to get a 2nd wind at some stage, and look good again, but then fade again. Atkins is probably 50/50 to play, of the 4 he probably has the best potential to squeeze out a little more growth, but that might take until the byes, as we need the 12 out of his cycle. Gibbons has overperformed. He's priced higher than his potential, and my guess is he might start to slowly leak, after this week.
The problem is exacerbated by their being no strong downgrade options this week. Stocker looks iffy for scoring, and Hately iffy for JS. Next week doesn't look much better, as those Rookie priced players that played their first game in Round 8 all scored poorly too.
Under a pure conservation of value approach, it would seem that Libba and Walsh out are the best candidates, and that dovetails well with their being no juicy downgrade targets.
So Walsh, Libba out + $280k - Macrae = $574k to spend. From the numbers you have provided, I think you fall just short of Merret. If the $280k was just a round number, and you can afford Merrett, I think I'd grab him over Sloane.
Dunkley doesn't interest me too much. It was only 2 weeks ago people were bemoaning how poor he has been, and 2 good scores later, people are queueing up to get him. Which is the real Dunkley? The answer is, we just don't know, so he's a bit too risky, in the long term. The short term risk is low, as his B/E is only 35, but that is secondary, as you are not loking to trade him out again.
I'll vote for your first proposal. Walsh/Libba to Macrae/Merrett, assuming you can reach Merrett.
Cheers for the response Rowan, much appreciated.

Yeah I had rounded the cash availble, the actual cash balance is $283,600.

So Liber and Walsh to Macrae and Merrett does work, with $800 left so will exhaust all my available cash.

Once again thanks for your response.
 

7/11

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Didn't know where to put this, but figured I'd ask here as you are the guru on all things AFL.

For the bye rounds, should I be looking at getting 18 players per bye round, or is that unrealistic? Currently I have a full compliment for rounds 12 and 14 (assuming my squad doesn't change too drastically) and about 12 for round 13.
 

Adrenaline

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Hi row

I was hoping to get your opinion about Dunkley and j kelly.

Dunkley has shown he can score well if his played in the right position. Do you see him being a top 6 forward player? And do you think his role changes again where he may play forward and drop in price?

I feel kelly is similar to fyfe. He doesn’t play a full season however he has a massive ceiling. At 590k do you think he is a major risk if you already have Fyfe in your team? He normally avg about 18 games and he has already missed 3. If history repeats itself he can miss another 1-2 games or more.

Out of the players i would imagine Dunkley is the safer choice?
 

Connoisseur

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Hi Rowsus,

I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on the preferred option of the below 2 for trades for the next month. Most of the moves are the same but the time of execution varies.

1.
RD9:
Out: T Atkins and M Parker
In: J Kelly and J Hately and 43,100
RD10:
Out: S Walsh and W Drew
In: J Macrae and ? (rookie any position)
RD11-13:
Out: ROB, X Duursma, M Hore/D Moore, L Baker, C Constable, rookie,
In: rookie, J Lloyd, S Hurn/J Dunkley/D Mundy, R Gray, P Cripps, rookie

VS
2.
RD9:
Out: S Walsh and D Moore
In: J Macrae and J Dunkley and 5,500
RD10:
Out: T Atkins and M Parker
In: J Hately and ?
RD11-13:
Out: ROB, X Duursma, W Drew, C Constable, M Hore, rookie
IN: rookie, J Lloyd, J Kelly, M Crouch/P Cripps, S Hurn, rookie




Prefer Option 1 due to grabbing J Kelly and J Macrae before the start of the byes but I would greatly appreciate your feedback and suggestion.
 
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Hey Rows,

Having a shocker this year.
Just when I think my team is ok I get smashed with
injuries and/or poor performance from premos.
Eg. Andrews, Whitfield and Cogs, Brayshaw, Wallis
Now I am facing the likes of Cogs,Wallis and in particular Brayshaw losing even more cash.
Together with the non playing rookies in BScott, Burgess and ROB as R2 I am in a little bit of trouble.
Should I battle away with Brayshaw and Wallis and continue trying to go one up one down with the likes of Parker and Drew/Dursmaa etc.
Or with my 100k in bank and another downgrade bite the bullet on Brayshaw or Wallis and turn into a Fyfe or Gaff/Yeo or Sloane
I am thinking Brayshaw must go as he about to leak more cash.
With West Coast starting to look a little better I looking at Gaff or Yeo. Gaff very consistent but Yeo more likely to go big. Sloane goes against my plan of trying to stay away from older players but he is going ok.
Hey Slam,
yours and my seasons seem to be running on a parallel! That's no surprise, as we both have some of the same culprits.
For the moment, I think you need to ride out the B Scott & Burgess type picks, as there's no value in trading them.
Brayshaw - $456,200 (-$70,700) - B/E 140 - Last 3: 63, 68, 96 - only 3 of his 8 scores are above his ave of 89.9
Wallis - $418,800 (-$80,000) - B/E 85 - Last 3: 78, 85, 87 - 5 of his scores above his average of 81.8
Coniglio - I think he's a 103-105 type player, and I think you ride him out for now, maybe last upgrade, if you can.
I got rid of Brayshaw in Round 2, and if I still had him, I agree with you, and I think I'd dump him before Wallis. Firstly, Brayshaw has a bigger mountain to climb, to become relevant in your team, and secondly Brayshaw's scoring suggests if he continues on this path, he'll lose more money than Wallis will, from here.
I think you might be in my boat with Rookies, too. While we have a good smattering of useful ones, we have missed 2 or 3 gems as well. I think that means, if Hately is selected this week, which I think he will be, you and I have to risk bringing him in. I know it potentially means another deadwood spot during the MBR's, but we have to take some risks somewhere, if we're going to claw our way back.
Brayshaw to Hately gives you just over $400k, including your $100k.
Of the 3 players you mentioned, Sloane, Gaff and Yeo, I think I'd take Yeo. He's priced similar to Gaff, but is younger, and has a lower game count, so is more likely to make the 105+ area is scoring level than Gaff, who has had a few more cracks at it than Yeo, and like Yeo, has only done it once.
The question as to who you use to get Yeo is a good one, and largely a guessing game. Do you rid yourself of a deadwood, but have playing Rookies loose more money? Or do you hold the deadwood, and stop further leakage? I think I'd stop further leakge, and get rid of one your Rookies that looks like losing money this week, to get Yeo.
Good luck, Slammer, I'll race you to the top 25,000!
 
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Hi Rowsus,

This season is the first time I’m playing SC and up until now I’ve just been playing for fun with no real plan or strategy with what I’m doing!! I’m part of a 10 team league with people from work and currently have a pretty bad record of 3 wins and 4 losses in my H2H matchups.

If possible, I was hoping to get your opinion on my team below and any advice regarding trade targets and bye round selections would be much appreciated! I don’t know what to expect during the bye rounds but I imagine it’ll be very difficult to get consistent point scoring.

As you would notice, I’ve got injury and cash issues at the moment. I’m thinking to trade out Butters and Ross but I’m not really convinced about the new rookies to bring in. Hately seems to have a low JS.
Is it a bad idea to trade out either Walsh or Rozee right now along with one of my benched rookies for someone like Dunkley/Cameron?
Or should I save my trades for the bye rounds?
Open to any suggestions!

Thanks for your time!

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Hi Rumbler, 21 trades and 3 wins, 4 losses isn't a bad position to be in, at all.
Looking at your bye break up, you are currently:
SCS19 RumbRnd9.png

If the byes started tomorrow, you'd have 19, 17, 20 available, in theory, right now. That's a set up you should be comfortable with.
You probably don't want to trade any Rnd 13 players in, between now, and until Rnd 14, though if there is one you are really keen on, you can probably work around squeezing one more in.
13 Keepers is probably on the low side of things, coming into Rnd 9, so to stay competitive, you need to try and work on that.
While I agree that Hately has questionable JS, if he is selected this week I think he's one worth taking a punt on. There aren't many decent downgrade options this week, or next, so we may as well on punt one, that has shown he can score, if he gets picked. Also, being a Rnd 14 Rookie makes him easier to deal with, than if his bye was earlier.
Butters to Hately gets you to $104,600. Walsh would seem to be the only other tradeable player, that will get you to a Keeper type price ($543,600). I'm not overly keen on either of Dunkley or Cameron, but I can understand those that are. Cameron is a KPF, and they can run hot and cold. I tend to think jumping on them after a string of good scores, excluding last Round, is a bad idea. Dunkley was being ranted about 3 weeks ago, and is now being hunted down. I think people are too fickle, and while he may prove to be a good pick from here, he might have you thinking "why was I so keen after just 2 good scores?!" If you are really keen on one or the other, Cameron being a Rnd 14 suits bye play better, but Dunkley, in my opinion is probably the better chance of being a good pick, and won't ruin your bye structure.
If you're not sure which way to jump there, the other option is to strengthen your bye numbers, by trading Ross to Ham. This will give you one more weeks info on the Prems to trade in. Given how poorly the first gamers played last week, if Ham gets picked again this week, he may be as good as any of next weeks bubble boys, and the injury to Smith doesn't hurt Ham's prospects.
 
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Didn't know where to put this, but figured I'd ask here as you are the guru on all things AFL.

For the bye rounds, should I be looking at getting 18 players per bye round, or is that unrealistic? Currently I have a full compliment for rounds 12 and 14 (assuming my squad doesn't change too drastically) and about 12 for round 13.
Depending on team selections during the byes, most here will field 18 each week, though there will be some copping a donut or two. It sounds like you are going to get a donut or two as well. Sometimes you just have to live with it, accept it, and just do your best. You are probably better to cop a donut, than make too many compromised selections, just to dodge the donut. 2 or 3 compromised selections can add up to a 200 or 300 point mistake by seasons end, or even more, where as a donut is just a 60-65 point hit, as we assume it is a Rookie you are missing, and not a Prem.
 
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