Hi Row,
Just quickly what re your thoughts on jumping on players that have severely underscored their projections compared to players that have over scored their projections. (All in my option of course).
Some examples include Lynch (Rich), Hurn, J.Cameron, Gunston
Hi Pie,
the main thing to do, is try and identify the reason the player has over/under scored, and once you have your answer there, try to determine if it will continue.
There are so many reasons that it might come down to:
Strength of Draw
Change of Role: is it injuries to team mates, permanent shift, draw related?
Nagging, niggling injuries.
A better/worse player than the projections give credit for.
Personal problems, enduring or in the recent past.
Adapting to new rules, situations
Just to name a few.
Lynch - may be still suffering after effects from 2 years of season ending knee problems. Also, may not be as good as projections suggested. May still be adapting to new Club/game plan.
Hurn - they may as well have called some the new Rules "The Hurn Rule", that's how much he has benefitted. Will that continue, or will opposition Clubs find a way to counter?
Cameron - is he benefitting from no Patton or Lobb, and finally realising his potential? Also, seems to be getting on his bike, and travelling up the ground a bit more. New rules helping? His Marks inside 50 are at a career high average.
Gunston - he's in his 10th season. Looking at just his 4th season and beyond he's sitting on career lows in: Disposals, Frees For, Clearances and Contested Possessions. He's also sitting on a career high in Inside 50's, but not Rebound 50's. That last one suggests he's getting a lot of possessions in the area outside the Def arc, but behind the Centre line, or at least more than he used to. That's the lowest scoring area on the ground.
Will all those factors continue?
Lynch - mostly.
Hurn - surely clubs don't let him remain unchecked?! Though it did take most opposition Clubs 2-3 seasons to learn not to kick the ball high within 20-25 metres of McGovern. That in itself may be helping Hurn. More Kaos balls going into their Def area suits him, also, as they kick away from McGovern, it has helped Hurn with intercept marks this season. He 90% won't continue at 116+, but what will he continue at? That's the main question!
Cameron - a KPF with a rich feeding ground, and less competition. He'll score better than last season, but like a true KPF will score 40-50's with some 120+'s as well.
Gunston - McEvoy rucked pretty much solo, now Ceglar is there, adding a tall to the Fwd line. I'd tread carefully, though McEvoy has a 4 week injury, so it will be interesting to see if Gunston benefits. Short term though, as Mc will be back!
