Questions For Rowsus

Slammer

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Hey Slam,
yours and my seasons seem to be running on a parallel! That's no surprise, as we both have some of the same culprits.
For the moment, I think you need to ride out the B Scott & Burgess type picks, as there's no value in trading them.
Brayshaw - $456,200 (-$70,700) - B/E 140 - Last 3: 63, 68, 96 - only 3 of his 8 scores are above his ave of 89.9
Wallis - $418,800 (-$80,000) - B/E 85 - Last 3: 78, 85, 87 - 5 of his scores above his average of 81.8
Coniglio - I think he's a 103-105 type player, and I think you ride him out for now, maybe last upgrade, if you can.
I got rid of Brayshaw in Round 2, and if I still had him, I agree with you, and I think I'd dump him before Wallis. Firstly, Brayshaw has a bigger mountain to climb, to become relevant in your team, and secondly Brayshaw's scoring suggests if he continues on this path, he'll lose more money than Wallis will, from here.
I think you might be in my boat with Rookies, too. While we have a good smattering of useful ones, we have missed 2 or 3 gems as well. I think that means, if Hately is selected this week, which I think he will be, you and I have to risk bringing him in. I know it potentially means another deadwood spot during the MBR's, but we have to take some risks somewhere, if we're going to claw our way back.
Brayshaw to Hately gives you just over $400k, including your $100k.
Of the 3 players you mentioned, Sloane, Gaff and Yeo, I think I'd take Yeo. He's priced similar to Gaff, but is younger, and has a lower game count, so is more likely to make the 105+ area is scoring level than Gaff, who has had a few more cracks at it than Yeo, and like Yeo, has only done it once.
The question as to who you use to get Yeo is a good one, and largely a guessing game. Do you rid yourself of a deadwood, but have playing Rookies loose more money? Or do you hold the deadwood, and stop further leakage? I think I'd stop further leakge, and get rid of one your Rookies that looks like losing money this week, to get Yeo.
Good luck, Slammer, I'll race you to the top 25,000!
Thanks Rows
Parker is the one I am thinking and I can then swing Moore back to fwd line
In doing so it gives me a little more cash to play with. Do I stay with Yeo and bank the cash?
Or splash out on a Fyfe or Zerritt or even Neale (although he has high BE)
With my team struggling I am thinking of banking the cash to assist in another upgrade later.
Hmmmm...I give up..Now Cogs is out aswell
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well.

I’m interested to hear your thoughts on the following trade of Libba to Cripps.
I’ve made a mistake but not starting Cripps and feel now is a good chance to bring him in. The only reason I’m hesitating is due to Cripps’ high price and the fact that Libba has the potential at a high level and provide decent value for his current 429,100 price tag.

So overall I’m wondering if Cripps continue at his current scoring and is he ‘decent’ value for money and whether Libba should be held. Libba is my only avenue to Cripps this week. Some other players that could be traded include; Drew,Atkins,Parker if you think they should be moved on before Libba.

Feels like a bit of a ramble so hopefully it all makes sense.

Cheers Pieman.
 

Rowsus

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Hi row

I was hoping to get your opinion about Dunkley and j kelly.

Dunkley has shown he can score well if his played in the right position. Do you see him being a top 6 forward player? And do you think his role changes again where he may play forward and drop in price?

I feel kelly is similar to fyfe. He doesn’t play a full season however he has a massive ceiling. At 590k do you think he is a major risk if you already have Fyfe in your team? He normally avg about 18 games and he has already missed 3. If history repeats itself he can miss another 1-2 games or more.

Out of the players i would imagine Dunkley is the safer choice?
Hi ad,
I think the best, and one of the hardest things to do, with players like Dunkley is to honestly answer this question:

Through the first 6 Rounds, when Dunkley was performing poorly, were you more in the "Glad I didn't start him!" camp, or were you thinking "That's great, now I will be able to pick him up cheaper during upgrade season"?

I would think most people were sitting in the first part of the question, and less than 30% were thinking he'd be a good trade in option shortly. So what really has changed? His opening price was $516,300, and his price now is $514,700, so basically the same. He's played 2 good games, 3 average games, and 3 poor games. We knew he'd score a couple of good scores at some stage, so why are we keen to jump on him after he has done that?
You suggested Dunkley might be a safer option than Jelly, but Dunkley's game counts aren't much better, really: 13, 7, 19 in his first 3 seasons. At least with Jelly, you know when he's fit and playing, he would at worst hold down a M6-8. We can't say the same with Dunkley, I believe.
As you may have guessed, he's not for me, but I can understand those that one to get him in. His low B/E (35) reducesthe risk somewhat, and does leave way for an exit plan, if one is required.

Jelly is starting look like Fyfe, not in his style of play, but in the way he needs to be treated from a SC point of view. I'm fimly of the view that Fyfe is a "start him or forget him" type. His 2nd half of the season averages 8 out of 11 games, and a PIT65 101 average, even when you leave out his 5 game season. There's no point not starting him, and then trading him after a group of good scores. You have likely missed the cream, but are getting the trouble that follows it. Jelly is not quite there yet, but soon could be.

I think I'd be happier to take him, over Dunkley.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on the preferred option of the below 2 for trades for the next month. Most of the moves are the same but the time of execution varies.

1.
RD9:
Out: T Atkins and M Parker
In: J Kelly and J Hately and 43,100
RD10:
Out: S Walsh and W Drew
In: J Macrae and ? (rookie any position)
RD11-13:
Out: ROB, X Duursma, M Hore/D Moore, L Baker, C Constable, rookie,
In: rookie, J Lloyd, S Hurn/J Dunkley/D Mundy, R Gray, P Cripps, rookie

VS
2.
RD9:
Out: S Walsh and D Moore
In: J Macrae and J Dunkley and 5,500
RD10:
Out: T Atkins and M Parker
In: J Hately and ?
RD11-13:
Out: ROB, X Duursma, W Drew, C Constable, M Hore, rookie
IN: rookie, J Lloyd, J Kelly, M Crouch/P Cripps, S Hurn, rookie




Prefer Option 1 due to grabbing J Kelly and J Macrae before the start of the byes but I would greatly appreciate your feedback and suggestion.
Hi Connoisseur,
a lot will come down to Sunday benches, so it's hard to be sure right now.
I will say, if Hately makes the final team, it pretty much has to be option 1, as option 2 has you trading him after what should be a decent price rise.
That aside, I like option 1 better anyway. It preserves cash/value better, and it doesn't involve getting Dunkley!
 

Rowsus

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Thanks Rows
Parker is the one I am thinking and I can then swing Moore back to fwd line
In doing so it gives me a little more cash to play with. Do I stay with Yeo and bank the cash?
Or splash out on a Fyfe or Zerritt or even Neale (although he has high BE)
With my team struggling I am thinking of banking the cash to assist in another upgrade later.
Hmmmm...I give up..Now Cogs is out aswell
Yeo or Merrett, not Fyfe.
Fyfe misses games in the 2nd half of the season, and is in 35% of teams. Yeo and Merrett are in 5% so give you a better avenue to make ground.

......... as to Cogs ....... :oops::eek::mad:(n)

at least he doesn't lose any value this week!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well.

I’m interested to hear your thoughts on the following trade of Libba to Cripps.
I’ve made a mistake but not starting Cripps and feel now is a good chance to bring him in. The only reason I’m hesitating is due to Cripps’ high price and the fact that Libba has the potential at a high level and provide decent value for his current 429,100 price tag.

So overall I’m wondering if Cripps continue at his current scoring and is he ‘decent’ value for money and whether Libba should be held. Libba is my only avenue to Cripps this week. Some other players that could be traded include; Drew,Atkins,Parker if you think they should be moved on before Libba.

Feels like a bit of a ramble so hopefully it all makes sense.

Cheers Pieman.
Hi Pieman,

in Italian (because it involves Libba) - Fallo!
in Danish - Gør det!
in Latin - Facite!
en Francais - Fais le!

......... and believe it not, in Kurdish - We bike!

in Zulu - Yenza lokho!

and finally in Pig Latin - Oday itway!
 
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Hi Pieman,

in Italian (because it involves Libba) - Fallo!
in Danish - Gør det!
in Latin - Facite!
en Francais - Fais le!

......... and believe it not, in Kurdish - We bike!

in Zulu - Yenza lokho!

and finally in Pig Latin - Oday itway!
I shall do it!!
 

Rumbler

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......... as to Cogs ....... :oops::eek::mad:(n)

at least he doesn't lose any value this week!
Is it a bad idea to trade Cogs out? If I don’t I’ll essentially have 3 rookies playing in the mid (Atkins, Butters and possibly Hately).
I also don’t really want to trade out Constable but him getting dropped again doesn’t help one bit :(
 

Rowsus

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Is it a bad idea to trade Cogs out? If I don’t I’ll essentially have 3 rookies playing in the mid (Atkins, Butters and possibly Hately).
I also don’t really want to trade out Constable but him getting dropped again doesn’t help one bit :(
It comes down to your expectations of him from here. Yours is probably different from mine.
I expect in the last 14 Rounds (including this coming Round 9), he will play something like 11 games at 103.
If your expectations are similar, then yes, trade him out.
The only proviso I'd add is, don't swap one problem for another. Either take him all the way down to a Rookie, which if he is named, Hately seems the most likely suspect, especially as it's Cogs that's out. Or, take Cogs all the way up to a more reliable proposition.
Don't swap him to a player you hope will do well, swap him to a player you are confident will do well!
 

Rowsus

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Yeo or Merrett, not Fyfe.
Fyfe misses games in the 2nd half of the season, and is in 35% of teams. Yeo and Merrett are in 5% so give you a better avenue to make ground.

......... as to Cogs ....... :oops::eek::mad:(n)

at least he doesn't lose any value this week!
Hey @Slammer, I hope you went Yeo!
 
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Hi Row,

Just quickly what re your thoughts on jumping on players that have severely underscored their projections compared to players that have over scored their projections. (All in my option of course).

Some examples include Lynch (Rich), Hurn, J.Cameron, Gunston
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row,

Just quickly what re your thoughts on jumping on players that have severely underscored their projections compared to players that have over scored their projections. (All in my option of course).

Some examples include Lynch (Rich), Hurn, J.Cameron, Gunston
Hi Pie,
the main thing to do, is try and identify the reason the player has over/under scored, and once you have your answer there, try to determine if it will continue.
There are so many reasons that it might come down to:
Strength of Draw
Change of Role: is it injuries to team mates, permanent shift, draw related?
Nagging, niggling injuries.
A better/worse player than the projections give credit for.
Personal problems, enduring or in the recent past.
Adapting to new rules, situations
Just to name a few.

Lynch - may be still suffering after effects from 2 years of season ending knee problems. Also, may not be as good as projections suggested. May still be adapting to new Club/game plan.
Hurn - they may as well have called some the new Rules "The Hurn Rule", that's how much he has benefitted. Will that continue, or will opposition Clubs find a way to counter?
Cameron - is he benefitting from no Patton or Lobb, and finally realising his potential? Also, seems to be getting on his bike, and travelling up the ground a bit more. New rules helping? His Marks inside 50 are at a career high average.
Gunston - he's in his 10th season. Looking at just his 4th season and beyond he's sitting on career lows in: Disposals, Frees For, Clearances and Contested Possessions. He's also sitting on a career high in Inside 50's, but not Rebound 50's. That last one suggests he's getting a lot of possessions in the area outside the Def arc, but behind the Centre line, or at least more than he used to. That's the lowest scoring area on the ground.
Will all those factors continue?
Lynch - mostly.
Hurn - surely clubs don't let him remain unchecked?! Though it did take most opposition Clubs 2-3 seasons to learn not to kick the ball high within 20-25 metres of McGovern. That in itself may be helping Hurn. More Kaos balls going into their Def area suits him, also, as they kick away from McGovern, it has helped Hurn with intercept marks this season. He 90% won't continue at 116+, but what will he continue at? That's the main question!
Cameron - a KPF with a rich feeding ground, and less competition. He'll score better than last season, but like a true KPF will score 40-50's with some 120+'s as well.
Gunston - McEvoy rucked pretty much solo, now Ceglar is there, adding a tall to the Fwd line. I'd tread carefully, though McEvoy has a 4 week injury, so it will be interesting to see if Gunston benefits. Short term though, as Mc will be back!
 

Rumbler

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Hi Row!

I took your advice from last week regarding Cogs where you said if I were to move him on I need to bring in someone who I know will do well and not just “hope” he does well.
I bought in Cripps...who probably had the worst game of his season at the weekend but I’m fairly confident he’ll return back to his best for the rest of the season. It’s unfortunate that I would’ve got him much cheaper if I had waited a week or two but I’m just gonna have to live with that !

My aim this week is to upgrade of one of my rookies so I wanted to get your opinion on two players: Heeney and Dusty.
If Drew doesn’t get selected again this week I’m considering bringing Heeney in. Main concern for me is whether he’s gonna get time in the midfield.
Dusty is also at a tempting price and he’s looked good in the past couple of weeks.
Would need to trade ROB in to fund the move from Butters to Dusty.

Would appreciate your thoughts/suggestions.
Many thanks!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row!

I took your advice from last week regarding Cogs where you said if I were to move him on I need to bring in someone who I know will do well and not just “hope” he does well.
I bought in Cripps...who probably had the worst game of his season at the weekend but I’m fairly confident he’ll return back to his best for the rest of the season. It’s unfortunate that I would’ve got him much cheaper if I had waited a week or two but I’m just gonna have to live with that !

My aim this week is to upgrade of one of my rookies so I wanted to get your opinion on two players: Heeney and Dusty.
If Drew doesn’t get selected again this week I’m considering bringing Heeney in. Main concern for me is whether he’s gonna get time in the midfield.
Dusty is also at a tempting price and he’s looked good in the past couple of weeks.
Would need to trade ROB in to fund the move from Butters to Dusty.

Would appreciate your thoughts/suggestions.
Many thanks!
Hi Rum,
I'm not in love with either to be honest, but with the way cash generation is looking, we might all be looking for value picks, and they both seem to fit that description.
Here is what I wrote about Dusty earlier in the week, in the Anatomy thread.

Dustin Martin
We've recalculated Dusty down to a 103 season average. That leaves him to score at 107 from here, and to be underpriced by 8.7/game. I don't think he's one for those at the pointy end, but if you have over used your trades, and want to get a value priced POD to help you complete your team, he's probably an option. He's currently in 9.4% of teams, but I'm guessing a decent lot of those might be inactive teams.
My main concern with Heeney is, Sydney are prepared to play their stars with niggles, like they did pretty much the whole of last season with Buddy. Heeney has obviously been affected in some games, and we have no way of knowing how it is progressing, apart from watching him each week. Given Heeney has an easier target score to hit, as you can play him as a Forward, I'd probably say he is a safer pick than Dusty. However, if you are looking to make ground with a POD to hopefully make a little ground, then if Dusty can fire a bit better, he is more likely to fit that description.
Good luck.
 

Slammer

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Hey Rows,

Our nightmare season continues with Wallis now ruled out until after bye.
Do we trade him? Or hold again.
I just cannot seem to take a trick.
There is a KP player at GWS I am thinking of bringing in this week. 🤫
Straight swap?
Also thinking of bringing in another KP in JK as well. Risks I know but after a shocking season .. it seems I have no choice to complete a team.
 
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anfa18

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Hey again Rowsus,

Wondering what your thoughts are on "slingshotting" mediocre performing "keepers" during the byes? At what point should we be looking to slingshot (only to a super premium etc) and how many slingshots would be reasonable? At the moment I have a few under performing keepers like Oliver, Rockliff, Steele, M.Crouch, Andrews) that I could potentially upgrade. Getting a couple keepers directly after their round 12 bye (Fyfe/Bont/Merrett/Sicily/Dunkley/Ryan) could be very beneficial for not only getting a solid 18 on the park in rounds 13 and 14, but also having a better side during the second half of the season.

Cheers.
 
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Darkie

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Hey again Rowsus,

Wondering what your thoughts are on "slingshotting" mediocre performing "keepers" during the byes? At the moment I have a few under performing keepers like Oliver, Rockliff, Steele, M.Crouch, Andrews) that I could potentially upgrade. Getting a couple keepers directly after their round 12 bye (Fyfe/Bont/Merrett/Sicily/Dunkley/Ryan) could be very beneficial for not only getting a solid 18 on the park in rounds 13 and 14, but also having a better side during the second half of the season.

Cheers.
I thought Rowsus invented the term :D
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I was apart of the Grawndyless team at the beginning of the year and still missing Grundy from my ruckline.
My rucks are currently: Gawn, ROB (Bines) - with no Ruck/fwd player. Paying 700k for Grundy feels wrong, but it seems like the only option. Getting Grundy will hurt my upgrades elsewhere.

The options I have thought of are:

1. Get Grundy - pay the price and sleep better at night
2. Look at an alternative eg Goldy,Big boy etc - hope they can get close to Grundy for the remainder of the year will I utilise the cash elsewhere
3. Stepping stone eg Soldo/Fort - Pick up Soldo/Fort (or someone else) for the next 5-6 weeks as the ‘gap’ between the stepping stone and Grundy close.
4. Quit SuperCoach - Give up

Cheers Pieman
 
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