Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Gruffles]

Happy to help.
@KLo30 used to be a Math's teacher, and he used SC as an exercise for his students too.
I'm sure you're aware, using something they already interested in, is a wonderful way to keep them involved in what they are learning!

Using your students to do all the ''grindy'' research and number crunching that takes up so much time is a fantastic way to teach them a very important life lesson. If you can get someone else to do your work for you but still reap the rewards you have truly mastered the art of human manipulation

 

[dicksilverman]

Hi d1ck, I'm doing ok thanks, and I hope you are too.
You have probably stumbled across The Lachie Neale Conundrum, which I think was posted after your question. While that thread specifically talks of Neale, it can be used on any troublesome low scoring Prem, early in the season.
After the thread was posted, we received news, and a little Twitter clip, that Neale has a sore back, and even had trouble bending and getting a ball off the ground at training. This, and the possibility of Collingwood adding a another hard tag this week, add another element to the equation. While the thread gave examples of him continuing to have low scores, and bouncing back, the prospect of a potential missed game or two drastically alter the Trade or Hold equation!





My answer is Yes, he can, and will most likely, get back to averaging 115+ from some point in the season, through until the end. The $64,000 question is, when?
Neale's 2019 season is good to look at. Put 2020 aside, as one out of the box. In 2019 Neale went 22/121.3. Within that season there were scores of: 91, 79, 79, 98, 85 (not consecutively) and in the semi, a 17 Disp game that only yielded 47!!! Up until Rnd 16 he averaged 124. The next 6 games he went 6/104, and the last 3 of those 6 games he went 3/96, all before posting a Rnd 23 190, and getting his average back over 120 again. What happened in those 6 games, and the reason behind it all, I have no idea! It does show he can have a rough patch, and bounce back though. Also in that same season, from Rnds 10 to 14, he had a 4/95 (+ bye) run. His price peaked in Rnd 6 at $687k, and bottomed in Rnd 16 at $555k. That's only a drop of $132k, though it should be noted, his score in Rounds 15, leading into his season low price was 137, so it could potentially have been worse!
All of that just muddies the water, but it's good to have in the back of your mind. To behonest, I was a hold, until I saw that Twitter clip, and now I'm waivering a little. There's no definitive answer, unfortunately. I guess we wait and see what team selections bring us. They might help shed some light on the problem!
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Thanks legend! I held incidentally and will ride it out and strengthen the team elsewhere!

 

[Rumbler]

Hey Rows,
Another week and it looks like yet another forced trade situation for me due to a player injury. This time with H.Young.
Struggling to decide whether to trade him down to Chapman or sideways to Impey.

The way I see it is if I trade to Impey then there's potential for him to be a keeper (maybe F6) and I won't need to spend another trade later on in the season to upgrade him. However I also get the feeling that I'm chasing points and he will eventually revert to something like a 65-70 scoring average once a few Hawthorn defenders return from injury.
With Champan, I can pocket an extra 130k but will definitely need to spend another trade down the line to upgrade him. Also unsure about his JS and how much money he can make.
Not sure which move has more benefits. In your opinion, who would you take?
Also, in what situation would you consider holding Young?

Cheers

 

[donnybuang]

Hi d1ck, I'm doing ok thanks, and I hope you are too.
You have probably stumbled across The Lachie Neale Conundrum, which I think was posted after your question. While that thread specifically talks of Neale, it can be used on any troublesome low scoring Prem, early in the season.
After the thread was posted, we received news, and a little Twitter clip, that Neale has a sore back, and even had trouble bending and getting a ball off the ground at training. This, and the possibility of Collingwood adding a another hard tag this week, add another element to the equation. While the thread gave examples of him continuing to have low scores, and bouncing back, the prospect of a potential missed game or two drastically alter the Trade or Hold equation!





My answer is Yes, he can, and will most likely, get back to averaging 115+ from some point in the season, through until the end. The $64,000 question is, when?
Neale's 2019 season is good to look at. Put 2020 aside, as one out of the box. In 2019 Neale went 22/121.3. Within that season there were scores of: 91, 79, 79, 98, 85 (not consecutively) and in the semi, a 17 Disp game that only yielded 47!!! Up until Rnd 16 he averaged 124. The next 6 games he went 6/104, and the last 3 of those 6 games he went 3/96, all before posting a Rnd 23 190, and getting his average back over 120 again. What happened in those 6 games, and the reason behind it all, I have no idea! It does show he can have a rough patch, and bounce back though. Also in that same season, from Rnds 10 to 14, he had a 4/95 (+ bye) run. His price peaked in Rnd 6 at $687k, and bottomed in Rnd 16 at $555k. That's only a drop of $132k, though it should be noted, his score in Rounds 15, leading into his season low price was 137, so it could potentially have been worse!
All of that just muddies the water, but it's good to have in the back of your mind. To behonest, I was a hold, until I saw that Twitter clip, and now I'm waivering a little. There's no definitive answer, unfortunately. I guess we wait and see what team selections bring us. They might help shed some light on the problem!
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Holding again, now we know he's injured?

 

[Beg2Differ]

Holding again, now we know he's injured?

@Rowsus responded to a similar question from me in another thread.

After a lot of to'ing and fro'ing, I decided to take the line of less pain. I really would have traded him last week, had we known, what we know now (and I don't mean his 89 score).
What would hurt me more?
Trade him now, and have him recover quicker than we might expect?
Hold him, and have him continue to dish up 80-100 type scores, basically playing a half each game. All until he gets to the fork in the road of "he's better now", or , "he's not getting better, we better give him a couple of weeks rest"?
Given I would have traded him last week, if we had full knowlege, I think holding him now, and having him continue to do poorly would hurt more than trading him now.
Last week it was going to be Neale to Lloyd, so I will just go ahead and do that this week, and "reset" my season to where I wanted it to be last week, just $59k and 76 points worse off, than had I done it last week.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,
Another week and it looks like yet another forced trade situation for me due to a player injury. This time with H.Young.
Struggling to decide whether to trade him down to Chapman or sideways to Impey.

The way I see it is if I trade to Impey then there's potential for him to be a keeper (maybe F6) and I won't need to spend another trade later on in the season to upgrade him. However I also get the feeling that I'm chasing points and he will eventually revert to something like a 65-70 scoring average once a few Hawthorn defenders return from injury.
With Champan, I can pocket an extra 130k but will definitely need to spend another trade down the line to upgrade him. Also unsure about his JS and how much money he can make.
Not sure which move has more benefits. In your opinion, who would you take?
Also, in what situation would you consider holding Young?

Cheers

Hey Rumb
Last question first. I think you'd only hold him if you have all the right Rookies, and you are happy that the player moving to D6 to replace him is strong enough. That all seems unlikely for anyone.
I think you need to look at how weak your F6 is if you go to Chapman, and whether you are loopholing at F6/7, and then how weak your D6 looks, if you go to Impey.
You really need to go with the option that leaves you with the stronger weaker point. If that makes sense.
Good luck.

 

[Rowsus]

Holding again, now we know he's injured?

Goneski, but with no confidence. What B2D said above.

 

[donnybuang]

@Rowsus responded to a similar question from me in another thread.

Goneski, but with no confidence. What B2D said above.

Thanks gents. The posts fly pretty quickly and I do miss the occasional one.
I'm in the same boat and don't think it's worth holding a guy who has a back injury. Either a) he has a genuine injury and will carry it all year, in which case he needs to go. Or b) he's told us a furphy about being injured and turns it around. I'm happy to risk a) and move him on.

 

[Rumbler]

Hey Rumb
Last question first. I think you'd only hold him if you have all the right Rookies, and you are happy that the player moving to D6 to replace him is strong enough. That all seems unlikely for anyone.
I think you need to look at how weak your F6 is if you go to Chapman, and whether you are loopholing at F6/7, and then how weak your D6 looks, if you go to Impey.
You really need to go with the option that leaves you with the stronger weaker point. If that makes sense.
Good luck.

Great points.
My D6 would be Highmore IF he gets picked! Otherwise it would either be Sharp or Kosch which definitely is super weak. In this case I might need to trade for Chapman.

My forward line is the weakest. F5 and F6 are currently rotated between Rowe, A.Scott, Bergman & H.Jones.

I guess if Highmore gets a recall it might be worthwhile going with Impey. Otherwise it'll be Chapman.
Awaiting Saturday team lineups....!!

 

[Shaunpro1]

Thanks gents. The posts fly pretty quickly and I do miss the occasional one.
I'm in the same boat and don't think it's worth holding a guy who has a back injury. Either a) he has a genuine injury and will carry it all year, in which case he needs to go. Or b) he's told us a furphy about being injured and turns it around. I'm happy to risk a) and move him on.

This is how Ive made the decision to trade, I'd rather look like an idiot in a month and bring him back than hold him for more piss poor performances before they decide to give him a spell, any genuine back injury doesn't get better without rest, being able to slot Ridley in and still bank cash is another added bonus.

 

[Rowsus]

Neale-Ridley and cut my losses or keep the faith?

Cut your losses.

 

[PC]

Hi Rowsus.
Any chance you could talk me out of going Campbell to Bowes as my first upgrade?

• Would be using bank to do it, gathered through previous (and probably pointless) trading and a std rookie downgrade of Highmore to Waterman

Hope you are going well!
Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.
Any chance you could talk me out of going Campbell to Bowes as my first upgrade?

• Would be using bank to do it, gathered through previous (and probably pointless) trading and a std rookie downgrade of Highmore to Waterman

Hope you are going well!
Cheers

Hi PC,
well, the good news is, you will know very early if Highmore is playing this week.
Let's assume he's not. I honestly can't see why you shouldn't do it.
Sorry I couldn't help.
I'm doing ok, thanks, I hope you are too.

 

[Peter56]

A simple question?
Is it better to go one up one down or two down this week and two up next?
Playing for Leagues.
I can get Lachlan Jones and Beau McCreery in this week, both should make some cash and then Oliver and Neale in next week or Oliver + Rookie this week and Neale next.

 

[MC's Mix]

A simple question?
Is it better to go one up one down or two down this week and two up next?
Playing for Leagues.
I can get Lachlan Jones and Beau McCreery in this week, both should make some cash and then Oliver and Neale in next week or Oliver + Rookie this week and Neale next.

View attachment 28957

Not sure what Rowsus would say, but my opinion is that when playing for league wins, you can 'sit on your hands' more often and wait for the right options to present themselves. Jones this week seems like a great rookie to bring in, McCreery not so much. Next week you'll have Macrae who looks good so far as a mid/fwd.
If I were you, I'd look at shifting Dunkley/Danger to the forwards and bringing in a prem mid, and maybe shifting Clark (especially if he's not named) for Jones.

There are some value picks possibly coming up soon with injured or underperforming premiums such as Neale/Sidebottom/J Kelly/Ridley/Howe/Maynard etc.

As a league player you can afford to watch Neale for another week to see if it was a legitimate return to form or a flash in the pan.
Walsh/Steele/Oliver all look like top-tier options in that midfield line that you might consider this week, though I'd lean more toward Oliver/Walsh at their price-point.

Good luck!

 

[Rowsus]

A simple question?
Is it better to go one up one down or two down this week and two up next?
Playing for Leagues.
I can get Lachlan Jones and Beau McCreery in this week, both should make some cash and then Oliver and Neale in next week or Oliver + Rookie this week and Neale next.

View attachment 28957

Playing for Leagues is pretty much a different kettle of fish, as to playing for Ranking.
It's very important when playing for Leagues, that you have trades in hand for the finals.
With this in mind, you can definitely be a bit more patient than a League player.
I'm assuming your main League is a Cash/Mates League, and you are familiar with most of the Coaches in that League.
I think the answer to your question lies in your current circumstances.
If you are playing an opponent you should have covered, than then a double downgrade is definitely an option.
However ......
If you are playing someone who you might be in an end of season tussle for a top 4/8 spot, then it is probably important you win this week!
That being the case, 1 up, 1 down, is a much better option.
If you have any doubt, you should go for the win, unless you are supremely confident that you'll make the finals, as a lot of the Coaches aren't very good.
Just one caution with that though. There is a League I am a part of, that I used to take finals as a foregone conclusion. Suddenly, 2 or 3 seasons ago, the Coaches in that League improved out of sight (same Coaches, they just got better), and I missed the finals in consecutive years.
I hope that has helped.

 

[Peter56]

Playing for Leagues is pretty much a different kettle of fish, as to playing for Ranking.
It's very important when playing for Leagues, that you have trades in hand for the finals.
With this in mind, you can definitely be a bit more patient than a League player.
I'm assuming your main League is a Cash/Mates League, and you are familiar with most of the Coaches in that League.
I think the answer to your question lies in your current circumstances.
If you are playing an opponent you should have covered, than then a double downgrade is definitely an option.
However ......
If you are playing someone who you might be in an end of season tussle for a top 4/8 spot, then it is probably important you win this week!
That being the case, 1 up, 1 down, is a much better option.
If you have any doubt, you should go for the win, unless you are supremely confident that you'll make the finals, as a lot of the Coaches aren't very good.
Just one caution with that though. There is a League I am a part of, that I used to take finals as a foregone conclusion. Suddenly, 2 or 3 seasons ago, the Coaches in that League improved out of sight (same Coaches, they just got better), and I missed the finals in consecutive years.
I hope that has helped.

Thanks for your advice As you say getting into the finals is the issue.

 

[Darkie]

Playing for Leagues is pretty much a different kettle of fish, as to playing for Ranking.
It's very important when playing for Leagues, that you have trades in hand for the finals.
With this in mind, you can definitely be a bit more patient than a League player.
I'm assuming your main League is a Cash/Mates League, and you are familiar with most of the Coaches in that League.
I think the answer to your question lies in your current circumstances.
If you are playing an opponent you should have covered, than then a double downgrade is definitely an option.
However ......
If you are playing someone who you might be in an end of season tussle for a top 4/8 spot, then it is probably important you win this week!
That being the case, 1 up, 1 down, is a much better option.
If you have any doubt, you should go for the win, unless you are supremely confident that you'll make the finals, as a lot of the Coaches aren't very good.
Just one caution with that though. There is a League I am a part of, that I used to take finals as a foregone conclusion. Suddenly, 2 or 3 seasons ago, the Coaches in that League improved out of sight (same Coaches, they just got better), and I missed the finals in consecutive years.
I hope that has helped.

Maybe they found your thread Row 😋

 

[SuchIsLife]

Hi Rowsus,

With significant trades looming for the majority of the league, so I thought it'd benefit many to hear your views regarding the following players.

- Devon Robertson
- Hugh McLuggage
- Dayne Zorko
- Marcus Bontempelli
- Clayton Oliver
- Steele Sidebottom

If you had 330k in the bank, enough cash to pick any combination, which 2 would you select? Keep in mind if I go Bont + Oliver, I won't have room for Sidebottom/Zorko next week. But Oliver + Sidebottom + Zorko (next week) is possible.

Thanks

 

[XabiFernando]

Hi Row,

Hope you've been well and are staying safe!

I have both Neale and Dunkley, so it seems like a double sideways is a given this week. In the interest of thinking outside the box, what factors would compel you to hold one injured premo on bench this week in favour of a rookie downgrade?