Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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I'm a little worried about Lycett's around the ground scoring. He only took 46 marks last season, and WC in the past have rested their Rucks Fwd quite often. Cox could mark and Goal, I'm not confident Lycett can. He seemed to rest/get Fwd for a bit of the All Stars game, and while getting to many contests, didn't take too many marks. I think WC are trialling him to play down there, at least while Darling is missing. When you compare him to McGovern, McG averaged 6.5 marks/game last season, and 1 goal. Lycett averaged 3.8 marks, and averaged 1 goal. I know which one I'd rather be kicking the ball to. Having said that, McGovern can't help cover your Rucks. It's interesting that Sinclair got named in WC's best in the All Star game, but no mention of Lycett. At the moment I have Leuey, after strongly considering Lycett at both R2 and F3/4. If NicNat looks shakey in the NAB, I will probably start Lycett (or even Sinclair!) over NicNat, but apart from that, I think Leuey is in the box seat to be this year's Sandi (probably minus 10 points!), and as such, is woth the risk.
Hondo, in 2013 there were 70 Defs priced between $275k and $350k, only 41 of them were selected in Rnd 1, and seeing as we are looking at this from a selection point of view, let's just concentrate on those 41, as you wouldn't have picked the other 29 in your starting team. Just like defining Premiums, defining breakouts is up to the individuals, so let's just look at some numbers.
7 of the 41 played 22 games that season, 5 played 21, 2 played 20 and 4 played 19.
The highest averaging players were:
Henderson 14/85
Ellis 20/82
Dunn 18/82
McKenzie E 21/81
No other players reached 80/game.
The highest aggregate players were:
McKenzie E 1701 error, McKenzie wasn't this high, but refer to coming thread.
Patful 1650
Otten 1650
Ellis 1640
Carlisle 1596
No other players cracked 1500 points.
My own conclusion is, that none of the players achieved a breakout, as none of them achieved a Keeper level.
In 2014 there were 60 Defs priced between $275k and $350k, only 38 were selected to play round 1.
13 played 22 games, 1 played 21 games, 5 played 20 games and 2 played 19 games.
The highest averaging players were:
Jaensch 22/90
Everitt 17/82
Guthrie 22/80
no other players averaged 80/game.
The highest aggregate players were:
Jaensch 1980
Guthrie 1760
Rampe 1672
Grundy 1672
Suckling 1617
Picken 1540
no other players cracked 1500 points
To my way of thinking, only Jaensch achieved a breakout, as no other players scored at a level you'd be happy to Keep.
So in the last 2 seasons, 79 Defs have been selected to play in Round 1 that were priced between $275k and $350k. 39 of them have played in 19 or more games for the season. Only one achieved a 90/game average, and 6 of them an average between 80 and 85. Only one achieved a season total of 1800 point or more, which should be around the very minimum you'd accept from your D6, depending on circumstances.
In 2015 there are 57 Defs priced between $275k and $350k. If anyone can beat the odds, and find a Keeper/breakout player amongst them, then good luck to them!
* - note - some of the aggregate figures might be slightly out, as they were arrived at by multiplying a rounded off score/game average, by the number of games played. Sorry.
7 of the 41 played 22 games that season, 5 played 21, 2 played 20 and 4 played 19.
The highest averaging players were:
Henderson 14/85
Ellis 20/82
Dunn 18/82
McKenzie E 21/81
No other players reached 80/game.
The highest aggregate players were:
McKenzie E 1701 error, McKenzie wasn't this high, but refer to coming thread.
Patful 1650
Otten 1650
Ellis 1640
Carlisle 1596
No other players cracked 1500 points.
My own conclusion is, that none of the players achieved a breakout, as none of them achieved a Keeper level.
In 2014 there were 60 Defs priced between $275k and $350k, only 38 were selected to play round 1.
13 played 22 games, 1 played 21 games, 5 played 20 games and 2 played 19 games.
The highest averaging players were:
Jaensch 22/90
Everitt 17/82
Guthrie 22/80
no other players averaged 80/game.
The highest aggregate players were:
Jaensch 1980
Guthrie 1760
Rampe 1672
Grundy 1672
Suckling 1617
Picken 1540
no other players cracked 1500 points
To my way of thinking, only Jaensch achieved a breakout, as no other players scored at a level you'd be happy to Keep.
So in the last 2 seasons, 79 Defs have been selected to play in Round 1 that were priced between $275k and $350k. 39 of them have played in 19 or more games for the season. Only one achieved a 90/game average, and 6 of them an average between 80 and 85. Only one achieved a season total of 1800 point or more, which should be around the very minimum you'd accept from your D6, depending on circumstances.
In 2015 there are 57 Defs priced between $275k and $350k. If anyone can beat the odds, and find a Keeper/breakout player amongst them, then good luck to them!
* - note - some of the aggregate figures might be slightly out, as they were arrived at by multiplying a rounded off score/game average, by the number of games played. Sorry.
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They are the Facts Rowsus, no emotion in that analysis.
......and what a sad set of facts they are. Bloody depressing I say.
Suggests in these tough times when there are few rookies available there will be little hope from a mid defender to step up. Most likely The One who does step up may be a D6 at best or a D7/M9 swingman.
Yet to go a 5 solid defence also creates significant risk of missing the breakout players in the $400k-500k.
Maybe a mediocre outcome in defence may be a good outcome this season!
Thanks Rowsus, good reality check and will help in not leading to a disaster outcome, had been toying with 2-3 mid priced defenders.
......and what a sad set of facts they are. Bloody depressing I say.
Suggests in these tough times when there are few rookies available there will be little hope from a mid defender to step up. Most likely The One who does step up may be a D6 at best or a D7/M9 swingman.
Yet to go a 5 solid defence also creates significant risk of missing the breakout players in the $400k-500k.
Maybe a mediocre outcome in defence may be a good outcome this season!
Thanks Rowsus, good reality check and will help in not leading to a disaster outcome, had been toying with 2-3 mid priced defenders.
I think Yeo and Seedsman are close enough to $350K to fit within what Rowsus came up with. I think the much better paddock to farm defender keepers is $400-$500K. They've already got close to or over an 80ppg average which is a much more promising starting point.
Not that I want to speak for Rowsus though.
Not that I want to speak for Rowsus though.
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After the brilliant work by Rowsus and looking at the weekly scores of Yeo and Seedsman last year and eliminating any poor TOG% games etc, you could reasonable expect an 80 or maybe 85 score from both of these. This would value them at the start of the season at $425k-$450k pre the MN degradation over the first few weeks.
I think one of them is logical but not sure both are. If you have to trade them to upgrade any value is lost (a trade in theory worth $150k). If you finish one at D6 that may be ok but D5 may then lead to leaking of points. This assumes they both make the jump in numbers.
Best outcome is with the extra mid, quality trading and $$ generation that you can use one of them as a swingman (assuming neither go on to be +90 players).
The raw values and likely outcome look similar to Suckling pig last year without the prior history that he had. Noting there is likely to be 8-10 players who could easily ave 92-100.
I think one of them is logical but not sure both are. If you have to trade them to upgrade any value is lost (a trade in theory worth $150k). If you finish one at D6 that may be ok but D5 may then lead to leaking of points. This assumes they both make the jump in numbers.
Best outcome is with the extra mid, quality trading and $$ generation that you can use one of them as a swingman (assuming neither go on to be +90 players).
The raw values and likely outcome look similar to Suckling pig last year without the prior history that he had. Noting there is likely to be 8-10 players who could easily ave 92-100.
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Those are interesting stats, and point more to finding that under-priced premium or just go rookies - at least in backline. My only problem is that $75k seems a narrow band to look at specifically. You have to cut it off somewhere but a $100k-$125k band may show up more players and the better the sample size, the better that data collected.
Also interesting is that for someone like Ellis '13, his season average doesn't tell the whole story because of his terrible start, if you take out those first four games, his average jumps to 95 from 16/18 games. Not that it really ties into who's a "keeper" from round 1, because you'd have wanted bring him in, not get hit with those scores.
Also interesting is that for someone like Ellis '13, his season average doesn't tell the whole story because of his terrible start, if you take out those first four games, his average jumps to 95 from 16/18 games. Not that it really ties into who's a "keeper" from round 1, because you'd have wanted bring him in, not get hit with those scores.
I'm actually expanding the stats, and will put it in it's own thread.
Just 2 comments on your observations.
The sample size is plenty big enough, when we are looking at 79 players over 2 years.
As you alluded to, this is about players you could pick at Round 1 in that price group, and how they performed for the season. As such, Ellis' good average after his sub affected scores becomes largely irrelevant, as they are included in his total season, and we are looking at this from an overall point of view, not a week by week point of view.
I hope to have the thread up in a couple of hours, and it might help with the sample size, as it will reference every Def that played round 1, that was priced $275k and higher at the start of both 2013 and 2014.
Just 2 comments on your observations.
The sample size is plenty big enough, when we are looking at 79 players over 2 years.
As you alluded to, this is about players you could pick at Round 1 in that price group, and how they performed for the season. As such, Ellis' good average after his sub affected scores becomes largely irrelevant, as they are included in his total season, and we are looking at this from an overall point of view, not a week by week point of view.
I hope to have the thread up in a couple of hours, and it might help with the sample size, as it will reference every Def that played round 1, that was priced $275k and higher at the start of both 2013 and 2014.
With a lot of talk at the moment of mid price defenders and such, i'm interested in your thoughts on starting a defence like this? I've added my estimate averages for the players as well.
Hurn (88-92), Harbrow (82-87), Newnes (82-87), Docherty (80-85), Macmillan (70-75), rookie (rookie, rookie).
That sort of value in defence allows me to upgrade Leuenberger to a premium R1.
Hurn (88-92), Harbrow (82-87), Newnes (82-87), Docherty (80-85), Macmillan (70-75), rookie (rookie, rookie).
That sort of value in defence allows me to upgrade Leuenberger to a premium R1.
I know we are looking at potentially the lowest scoring set of Defs we may have seen in a while, but that backline looks nearly suicidal. At your estimates, you have potentially 6 upgrades to make to finalise your Def line, and if you get an LTI or 2, that could be 8. I know the top end Guys don't inspire confidence, but I would still try and get 2 of Hibberd/Smith/Simpson/Malceski/Shaw or even Burgoyne in there to help Hurn. They are no guarantee to be the best picks, but at the moment it doesn't look like you are going to save any/many trades in your Def line.
chels is right, the table threads cover them all, but just in short.
Dahlhaus I would want to see a positive sign in the NAB that he's playing a decent amount of Mid time, otherwise he will suffer small Fwd syndrome.
Gray I think is overpriced, but IF he can stay fit, and on the park, I would be majorly surprised if he wasn't a top 6 Fwd.
Vlastuin would need to show us more than he did last season, in improvement, before he will come close to being a good pick.
Treloar is going to be a gun, but with the queries on all the GWS Mids, with Griffen complicating things, makes just about any of them hard to pick, and if you do take one, I think it would have to be Ward.
Dahlhaus I would want to see a positive sign in the NAB that he's playing a decent amount of Mid time, otherwise he will suffer small Fwd syndrome.
Gray I think is overpriced, but IF he can stay fit, and on the park, I would be majorly surprised if he wasn't a top 6 Fwd.
Vlastuin would need to show us more than he did last season, in improvement, before he will come close to being a good pick.
Treloar is going to be a gun, but with the queries on all the GWS Mids, with Griffen complicating things, makes just about any of them hard to pick, and if you do take one, I think it would have to be Ward.
Rowsus I am trying to work out where (position) it is best to spend my money and in the end I guess it comes back to “return on investment”.
For example if I have to get 2 DEF and 2 MID and have $1.5m to spend. Do I get 2 X $500K MID and 2 $250K DEF or would the money be better spent the other way around (2 X $250K MID and 2 X $500K DEF)?
Is it possible to calculate the “Dollars Per Point” for each position based on last year?
By position, if you took every player that played 15 or more games last season, added up their starting prices and average points (and then divided them) would there be a major difference in Dollars per point from position to position?
I have an idea in my head of what I am after here but have found it difficult to put into words.....but basically I want to know if I spend $500K in the MIDS what points return can I expect compared to spending $500K DEF.
For example if I have to get 2 DEF and 2 MID and have $1.5m to spend. Do I get 2 X $500K MID and 2 $250K DEF or would the money be better spent the other way around (2 X $250K MID and 2 X $500K DEF)?
Is it possible to calculate the “Dollars Per Point” for each position based on last year?
By position, if you took every player that played 15 or more games last season, added up their starting prices and average points (and then divided them) would there be a major difference in Dollars per point from position to position?
I have an idea in my head of what I am after here but have found it difficult to put into words.....but basically I want to know if I spend $500K in the MIDS what points return can I expect compared to spending $500K DEF.
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I believe what you are refering to is commonly known at the magic number. This number means that every player that player over about 8 games (and some that played less than that) are priced to start the following season based their average. The magic number for 2015 is 5375, or $5375 per 1 point based on 2014 averages. This number will only stay at 5375 for the first two games that any player plays. After that time the magic number will likely reduce as the season goes on.
For 500k you should be able to buy a player that scored an average of 93 points per game. With this simplistic view, we you can probably see that spending 500k on a player in the midfield or in the backline has no impact on their scoring.
I guess it is our job as coaches to find players that we believe are 'under priced', as in we believe that they will average more in 2015 than they did in 2014, as that is the only way to determine who could potentially score higher from a same price base.
It is important to remember though that rookies prices are not based on their 2014 scores. So they are all generally 'under priced' on a point per dollar basis.
I'm sure Row can provide a more accurate description of the magic number, but all things equal, if you pick two players in different lines, for 500k each, and they are each priced to score 93 points per game.
For 500k you should be able to buy a player that scored an average of 93 points per game. With this simplistic view, we you can probably see that spending 500k on a player in the midfield or in the backline has no impact on their scoring.
I guess it is our job as coaches to find players that we believe are 'under priced', as in we believe that they will average more in 2015 than they did in 2014, as that is the only way to determine who could potentially score higher from a same price base.
It is important to remember though that rookies prices are not based on their 2014 scores. So they are all generally 'under priced' on a point per dollar basis.
I'm sure Row can provide a more accurate description of the magic number, but all things equal, if you pick two players in different lines, for 500k each, and they are each priced to score 93 points per game.
Thanks for the info but it is not 100% what I am after (probably didn't ask the question properly).
The magic number tells me what the players value is for the upcoming season. I want to use their starting price from last season against their average score last season to see what their output (per dollars) was.
For example
Ablett started at $735K (approx) and averaged 136 - Each point cost $5404
D Thomas cost $406K and averaged 75 - Each Point cost $5413
Using this to compare 1 player to another is probably no help but I really was interested in seeing if there was a major difference when calculating this for each LINE. I am fairly confident that this would show that for every dollar you spent in the midfield you got more points than you would for spending the same amount on any other line.
The magic number tells me what the players value is for the upcoming season. I want to use their starting price from last season against their average score last season to see what their output (per dollars) was.
For example
Ablett started at $735K (approx) and averaged 136 - Each point cost $5404
D Thomas cost $406K and averaged 75 - Each Point cost $5413
Using this to compare 1 player to another is probably no help but I really was interested in seeing if there was a major difference when calculating this for each LINE. I am fairly confident that this would show that for every dollar you spent in the midfield you got more points than you would for spending the same amount on any other line.
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