Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Herbie66]

Hi Herbie,
things in little old Denmark are ok. We haven't been too hard hit by C19 yet, but it's coming. We're not at the hoarding stage yet, and the local supermarket has plenty of toiletpaper, rice and pasta ........ for now!

History certainly says the $250-$300k price area is a graveyard! Last year there were 96 players in that range, with only one of them proving to be a useful starting pick. Darcy Macpherson opened $293,100 and reached $468,500 (+$175,400) at his bye, and averaged 83, playing every game along the way. What you intimated is absolutely correct. We shouldn't lump the all into one basket, and you need to look at them individually. What caused them to be priced that way? Are they inexperienced, and on the way up? Are they a player with a decent history, that can possibly rebound? Or are they just deadwood, that have fooled us into thinking that they have some sort of upside?
One of the great things about this game is, everyone can have their own opinion, and that opinion is valid, no matter how much it differs to others. You mention +$150k as a number to be a successful Stepping Stone. I tend to think +$100k is ok, and if they filled their other SS criteria (score useful points, play pretty much every game, and keep your dodgy 5th or 6th Rookie offthe ground), then I'll call +$100k a win, and +$80k a little disappointing, but you didn't really lose too much on the deal.

Birchall ($292,700 Def) - way too much bad history. Never considered him.
Long ($283,100 Fwd) - Marsh scores 64 & 85. Looked to have a good role in the pre-season, but needs to average close to 80 to be a good pick, and he didn't manage that with good game time in the lower pressure Marsh series. Will probably make money, but I'm thinking not enough.
Lukosius ($274,600 Def/Fwd) - Marsh 70 (from 56% TOG) & 58 (from 76% TOG). Might possibly be a good link with Brander (or Hill, if he ever gets match fit). 195 cm Pick #2 in the Draft, coming into his 2nd season, so it reads like a player with upside. Gold Coast are likely to improve, at least just a little, this season, which also helps. Only cracked 16 or more Disposals 4 times in his 21 games last season, and went SC 70+ only 4 times, with a high of 88. Seemed to play a slightly different role in the Marsh, and I think time will prove he is a better player than what he has shown so far, but I would like to have seen more upside to hang my hat on, before I picked him this season.
Fort ($264,800 Fwd) - Marsh 70 & 61 from low TOG's. Even if selected Round 1, I'd be too worried about his JS to even consider him. The low TOG's might point to poor JS, and I think Ratugolea might hold him out of the team.
Rayner ($251,800 Fwd) - 60 & 61 in the Marsh. I'm not seeing anything luring me into this seemingly obvious trap.
Naismith ($251,500 Ruck) - 79 & 69 in the Marsh. I really want Naismith in my side. I think he's a safe +$100k, and there's not many of them this season. I'm facing an unusual problem though, which has been mentioned in the Ruck thread. I'm having trouble spending the dollars, when I put Naismith at R2 (no faith in the Fwd/Def Prems), and if you sit Naismith at R3, it makes for an expensive bench, with good points you can't access. To be honest, I still don't know if he's R2, R3 or out!
Good luck sorting it out, and good luck for the season.

Hi Rowsus

Glad to hear all is going well , with Italy in complete lockdown , the world is certainly changing very rapidly.

Certainly is a even more scarier times rapidly approaching.

Hopefully we still have the football and SC.

Thank you so much for a detailed response pretty much confirmed my thoughts , I am trying very hard to having a competitive side from the start this year , back to Grundy & Gawn , follow the rookies once they reveal themselves etc etc , happy with Doc , Lynch , Steven & Smith.

I actually had the same issue with Gawn - > Naismith , the extra $$$ didn't get me the players I was happy with.

Be interesting to see how Naismith pans out.

I probably get too caught up in that $ 150k profit so probably need to be a bit more aggressive.

Depending on final round 1 sides , I might just sneak in one of those players I mentioned.

Thanks again and good luck , hopefully I don't have to contact you again in Round 8 when my team has completely fallen over ?

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I mean which 4 mids are best to start than upgrading to.Is it best starting 2 other defenders like Lloyd and laird for example than just doc.

If you start with any combination of Fyfe, J.Kelly, Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Bont you should be fine... If you need a cheaper M5 Oliver, Yeo, Cogs are all solid options, Start Laird, L.Ryan or Sicily over a max priced Lloyd imo. Doc, Houston, B.Smith look the value picks to fill D2-3

 

[Buddy Starmart]

If you start with any combination of Fyfe, J.Kelly, Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Bont you should be fine... If you need a cheaper M5 Oliver, Yeo, Cogs are all solid options, Start Laird, L.Ryan or Sicily over a max priced Lloyd imo. Doc, Houston, B.Smith look the value picks to fill D2-3

Thanks everywhere I go people say 4 mids is not enough they say go 5 or 6 mids

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Thanks everywhere I go people say 4 mids is not enough they say go 5 or 6 mids

It depends on how good the midfield rookies are. That is the key to how many premos we start in the midfield each year.

If you think there are 4 good scoring midfield rookies plus 3 rookies on the bench who will play and make money, 4 premo midfielders is fine if you put the money to good use on other lines.

I personally have 5 premo midfielders because aside from Rowell, Green and Pickett i am not confident in a 4th midfield rookie scoring 65-70 on field for me each week.

My response to you before was assuming that you were asking about the difference between the top level midfield premos and back line premos and which to start, i did not realise you were specifically talking about team structure and how many premiums to start on each line, if that was your real question my answer is... If you're Starting both Grundy and Gawn in the rucks then you have to cut a premo somewhere else, i would suggest cutting a backline premo before a midfield premo as there seem to be more rookies to choose from down back.

Most people seem to be going lighter in defence, heavy up forward and starting 4 or 5 premium midfielders depending on whether or not you have Gawn at R2. Good luck.

 

[Yikes]

Hi Rowsus, not sure if this has been answered before, but which teams have the best early fixture (round 1-9) to have a floating donut (plays later in the round)? Not sure if it's good to have one this year because of poor cash generation, but would be good to know.

Also, what are your thoughts on Patrick Cripps? Considering cripps, macrae and titch for M1 not sure who to go for.

 

[Rowsus]

I mean which 4 mids are best to start than upgrading to.Is it best starting 2 other defenders like Lloyd and laird for example than just doc.

If you start with any combination of Fyfe, J.Kelly, Neale, Cripps, Macrae, Bont you should be fine... If you need a cheaper M5 Oliver, Yeo, Cogs are all solid options, Start Laird, L.Ryan or Sicily over a max priced Lloyd imo. Doc, Houston, B.Smith look the value picks to fill D2-3

Thanks everywhere I go people say 4 mids is not enough they say go 5 or 6 mids

It depends on how good the midfield rookies are. That is the key to how many premos we start in the midfield each year.

If you think there are 4 good scoring midfield rookies plus 3 rookies on the bench who will play and make money, 4 premo midfielders is fine if you put the money to good use on other lines.

I personally have 5 premo midfielders because aside from Rowell, Green and Pickett i am not confident in a 4th midfield rookie scoring 65-70 on field for me each week.

My response to you before was assuming that you were asking about the difference between the top level midfield premos and back line premos and which to start, i did not realise you were specifically talking about team structure and how many premiums to start on each line, if that was your real question my answer is... If you're Starting both Grundy and Gawn in the rucks then you have to cut a premo somewhere else, i would suggest cutting a backline premo before a midfield premo as there seem to be more rookies to choose from down back.

Most people seem to be going lighter in defence, heavy up forward and starting 4 or 5 premium midfielders depending on whether or not you have Gawn at R2. Good luck.

Thanks to @BlueNwhiteHoops for his help on this one.
@Buddy Starmart, BNwH has given you a good answer there. There is no set number of any line you should start with. Impromptu who won SC in 2011 started an all Rookie midfield in 2010 and finished from memory top 500! When picking your most expensive players, try to look at who you think is a good chance to play all 22 games, as well as who you think can maintain their good scoring from last season.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, not sure if this has been answered before, but which teams have the best early fixture (round 1-9) to have a floating donut (plays later in the round)? Not sure if it's good to have one this year because of poor cash generation, but would be good to know.

Also, what are your thoughts on Patrick Cripps? Considering cripps, macrae and titch for M1 not sure who to go for.

Hi Yikes,
try these 2 threads:

2020 AFL SuperCoach Useful Information

Loophole Analysis

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,
Any thoughts on T. Lynch (Rich) this year?
Has actually had a pre-season.

 

[Bermi]

G’Day klog mand,

Jarryd Lyons?
Priced ($535,400) to score 99 but averaged 123.7 over the final 9 rounds. High ceiling. Tags go to Zorko and Neale.
Zorko recently praised Lyon, "…...goal kicking mid, good tackler and finds the ball...….".

I was wondering if his high scoring at the end of last year was just a spike and he will go back to his old scoring ways? But BRL seem to be a settled team, so I don’t see why he won’t continue his high scoring.

Is he on your ‘possible inclusion’ list? If not, I would appreciate your thoughts on why not.

 

[Ironhawk]

Hi Rowsus,

I think most of us are beginning to realise this season is likely to be impacted by COVID-19. How do you this will impact on strategies for creating a starting team? With it likely there will be shorter timeframes between games in early rounds (if games go ahead at all), are there particular types of players that we should now be considering?

Thanks.

 

[manyproblems]

Hi Rowsus

I have 6 players in the 190-280 bracket (Roberton, Noble, BZT, Rowell, Naismith, Luko. Cumming for Luko if named alongside Williams.

Do you think this is a viable strategy to run all the blokes to combat the lack of base rookies we have? I fully expect inefficient cash generation. Or would it be worth looking into running more mid price risks or turning guys like Cripps and Whitfield into Houston and Laird, and then turning a ~200k player into say a 400k fwd like Petracca. Cheers.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,
Any thoughts on T. Lynch (Rich) this year?
Has actually had a pre-season.

Hey Slams,
(Lynch Fwd $388,800) I had him in my team for a while, early on. His 104 average between Rnds 17 & 22, when he had supposedly finally played himself to full fitness, makes him mighty tempting. Then he added a 149 in the Prelim. Interestingly, all those games were MCG wins! Now, you might see a pattern there. Before Round 17 he played in 4 other MCG wins for: 58, 57, 41, 49 for 4/51!!!!
He has had a 22/93 AA season in 2016. Being a KPF he'll certainly be a rollercoaster ride! I'm not discounting him as a potential successful pick, but I just have a few question marks over him.
How does his knee hold up? It ended his season early in 2017 and 2018.
How does Richmond structure up? It seems they'll be playing an extra tall, that is better than Balta this season.
He's priced so that he has to score around 78 to maintain his price, so he needs to be a Keeper, to be a successful pick.
If he was $60k cheaper, he'd probably be in my team, but I think bad game counts, and the potential to have little or no growth killed it for me.

 

[Rowsus]

G’Day klog mand,

Jarryd Lyons?
Priced ($535,400) to score 99 but averaged 123.7 over the final 9 rounds. High ceiling. Tags go to Zorko and Neale.
Zorko recently praised Lyon, "…...goal kicking mid, good tackler and finds the ball...….".

I was wondering if his high scoring at the end of last year was just a spike and he will go back to his old scoring ways? But BRL seem to be a settled team, so I don’t see why he won’t continue his high scoring.

Is he on your ‘possible inclusion’ list? If not, I would appreciate your thoughts on why not.

Hejsa, min kyst boende ven,
Lyons (Mis $535,400) - coming into his 9th season, which is usually beyond the breakout territory, and has played 116 games, which is just beyond the usual breakout area. In 2017 Lyon had a 18/90 season, which contained a 10/102 streak. Inside that streak was a 6/112 patch. The next season he only went from 90 to 92. He's the type of player that can have these streaks, but can also have the opposite streaks, where he gives you a 5/68 patch (2019). I think he might be something like 20/96-97 this season.
Not being considered, as his scoring pattern seems set, and has too much inconsistency.
Good luck.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I think most of us are beginning to realise this season is likely to be impacted by COVID-19. How do you this will impact on strategies for creating a starting team? With it likely there will be shorter timeframes between games in early rounds (if games go ahead at all), are there particular types of players that we should now be considering?

Thanks.

Hi Iron,
I think sometimes we see scenarios, and over think them, and try too hard to outsmart the field. Nine times out of ten, when we do this, we just end up outsmarting ourselves!
I think the best strategy, is to just pick the best team you can, and deal with the hurdles and changes, as they come.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,
Are you running with either Whitfield or Greene?
Or do you think they are over priced?
Struggling with forwards atm in finding value.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I have 6 players in the 190-280 bracket (Roberton, Noble, BZT, Rowell, Naismith, Luko. Cumming for Luko if named alongside Williams.

Do you think this is a viable strategy to run all the blokes to combat the lack of base rookies we have? I fully expect inefficient cash generation. Or would it be worth looking into running more mid price risks or turning guys like Cripps and Whitfield into Houston and Laird, and then turning a ~200k player into say a 400k fwd like Petracca. Cheers.

Hi manyproblems,
I think a lot of teams will be going even more midprice, given the news.
Some have the theory, that getting a full team by Rnds 12/13 will only leave 4 or 5 Rounds to benefit from having that full team.
They want to have more points on board along the way, in essence, building up a lead on those making a traditional team, and saying "see if you can catch me!". To be honest, if you can do that well, it's not a flawed theory. What it doesn't do, is acknowlege how hard that is to achieve!
My suggestion would be, assign points value to the players involved in your consideration, and start with the highest scoring team you can build. It seems to me, we won't even get a full "traditional" 17 Round 17, and there will be more twists and turns to come yet.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Are you running with either Whitfield or Greene?
Or do you think they are over priced?
Struggling with forwards atm in finding value.

Hi Slammer,
I'm running with Greene and not Whitfield.
Cheaper than Whit, and he's the best one on one small player in the League. Given the GWS injuries, I think he'll get Mid time AND kick goals!
I will admit I'm biased, as I love watching him play. I just wish he'd take the "stupidity" out of his game!

 

[Slammer]

Hi Slammer,
I'm running with Greene and not Whitfield.
Cheaper than Whit, and he's the best one on one small player in the League. Given the GWS injuries, I think he'll get Mid time AND kick goals!
I will admit I'm biased, as I love watching him play. I just wish he'd take the "stupidity" out of his game!

Thanks Rows
GWS players interest me as they seem to be a high possession team. Have you looked at Hately?
With Taranto out he looks like he may have a role to play. $300k though. Too much for a stepping stone for a player with no real history? Maybe too much of a risk. Cummings is another.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rows
GWS players interest me as they seem to be a high possession team. Have you looked at Hately?
With Taranto out he looks like he may have a role to play. $300k though. Too much for a stepping stone for a player with no real history? Maybe too much of a risk. Cummings is another.

Happy to help,
the only problem I have with the Hately, Cumming, and to a lesser extent Green types, is GWS have a record of having too much depth, to give these young guys a consistent go at it. If you knew they had JS, you wouldn't hesitate. They'd be a walk up start on most other lists!

 

[KLo30]

Taranto is listed out for 16-20 weeks.

We are approximately in 3 weeks into that time frame. Let's say the AFL season gets 4 weeks before postponing June. Therefore, he will only miss those 4 weeks before being available.

That makes a whole new ball game on injured players.

Those with an injury lasting only two or three weeks will be PODs and a good bet.