Strategy Round 6: Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
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Yeah i am holding. The guy is fit and still scoring 90s i have bigger issues and i will sideways my season over if i keep on the trajectory i have been on this season. Noone could have predicted Kelly sitting fwd all year it is a sh*t sandwich. Hopefully he shocks everyone and busts out a 200 before he gets injured!
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Indeed Gawn's first 6 weeks and the ruck opponents he was facing was the main reason I started him in all formats despite his huge price tag and the various "value options" on offer. After Round 1 I was definitely second guessing this approach wondering just how much the new rules were impacting on dominant ruck scoring.
However this strategy has pretty much paid off now after locking in two 160+ captain scores from him over the first 5 rounds, alongside a whopping 140pt average.
In fact he's now actually $200 more than his starting price so those hoping to get him significantly cheaper may have to wait some time to come. A couple more monstrous games over the next month and even the $800K barrier is not out of reach.
However this strategy has pretty much paid off now after locking in two 160+ captain scores from him over the first 5 rounds, alongside a whopping 140pt average.
In fact he's now actually $200 more than his starting price so those hoping to get him significantly cheaper may have to wait some time to come. A couple more monstrous games over the next month and even the $800K barrier is not out of reach.
The other aspect though in Gawn's favour is the trainwreck that the alternatives have ended up being for the most part, basically if you went Grundy, Flynn and Hickey/Nank then you've pulled up alright to now and any other option you've done worse than Gawn. Sometimes holding value is a winning play but, yeah, on pure numbers not picking Gawn could still easily be ahead which seems crazy.
The hard part when getting fair value though is how hard it is to actually find underpriced or even fair priced alternatives to go with, especially in the midfield and forwards this year where it's been chaotic.
In the mids 5 of the top 13 midfielders were in less than 2% of starting teams and a further 3 of the 13 have underperformed and 2 of the 13 have provided fair value. Basically you have Boak, Macrae and Walsh in the mids that were realistic (call it likely) picks (Boak at 2.8% is debatable here also!) that have outperformed their starting price so far! I won't list the guys who didn't match that were very popular for pure depression reasons.
Forwards are even worse, the list is Dunkley, who everyone had, and Martin whos is going in the wrong direction. Toby Greene is the only other top 20 forward right now who could be argued was a premium this preseason... Of course the positive here is the amount of sheer value that has actually existed but the psychological jump of "I'm taking on Gawn" to "and I'm going to do it with rookie and mid priced forwards" is a pretty impossible leap at the starting gun!
Of course those who punted Gawn for defenders have most likely gotten fair value (sorry Daniel and Lloyd starters) with Ridley, Stewart, Bowes, Rich, Mills, Laird, Short, Docherty, Houston and even almost Ryan at fair value or better. The midprice guys also were mostly successful with Jiath, Cumming, Sholl, Markov and Ash all having done decently, we won't mention the rookies!
Been an interesting season so far, hard to argue lock and load isn't streeting ahead right now though, fingers crossed for my sake that Flynn can come flying back in this week to fight his way back!
Whitfield is a great ball user though, which increases the chances that Kelly gets hit when he's in space, they've got a lot of hackers and butchers in the team who just bomb long to their non-existent KP targets because they're crappy ball users (Ward, Hopper, Taranto and Daniels) when Kelly is often running to space on a wing or half forward.
Kelly's upside, especially if he moves clubs to somewhere that would use him and even more so if he goes to a club with a good medical staff, as a forward would be a lock if he's priced in the 90s next year. He'd be Dunkley this year.
Hardest thing with Kelly is how well he looks physically and knowing he's a role change from being a 120 scorer. As much as he's salvaged the last couple of weeks his one constant strength has always been endurance so you do expect him to finish games strongly, just be nice if he could score in the earlier parts so he could be putting a cherry on instead of saving.
Only reason to trade Kelly right now though is if you're fixing a massive hole elsewhere, I can understand him to fix Gawn/Grundy missing in your rucks, especially if Flynn is out, otherwise Kelly is a very sideways move right now. Reality is that in his current role he's looking to be a 90s scorer which is very consistent with other talented HF types (Heeney, Butters, Zorko, Martin, etc), he's basically dropped to the point where he's priced fairly on those grounds and given his ability to score 120+ if he does go into the midfield I'm not sure you gain a lot.
To me makes a lot more sense to do your regular upgrades where you get a Jordon/Berry off the field to a premium and hope Kelly gets sorted out in the next 5 weeks. Sucks he has the first bye to not be able to leapfrog through there. Realistically Kelly as an upgrade is a very minimal return right now compared to alternatives and as long as he's fit he's always a chance of getting his role. Would only take a Ward/Hopper injury or two and he's basically got to be in the guts.
Also a case that when Coniglio, Whitfield, Hogan, De Boer, Lloyd and Perryman types do return that they don't see a need for him up forward anymore. It's very much worth noting that in rounds 1 and 2 and the first half of round 3 his role was actually very decent, not great, but decent, it wasn't until the Melbourne game where they lost both of Coniglio and De Boer (both play HF considerable amounts this year) that Kelly was sent forward. Now those guys are all out for extended periods but around the byes you'd expect most would be back and Kelly could be unleashed.
This is my absolute best effort at glass half full
Kelly's upside, especially if he moves clubs to somewhere that would use him and even more so if he goes to a club with a good medical staff, as a forward would be a lock if he's priced in the 90s next year. He'd be Dunkley this year.
Hardest thing with Kelly is how well he looks physically and knowing he's a role change from being a 120 scorer. As much as he's salvaged the last couple of weeks his one constant strength has always been endurance so you do expect him to finish games strongly, just be nice if he could score in the earlier parts so he could be putting a cherry on instead of saving.
Only reason to trade Kelly right now though is if you're fixing a massive hole elsewhere, I can understand him to fix Gawn/Grundy missing in your rucks, especially if Flynn is out, otherwise Kelly is a very sideways move right now. Reality is that in his current role he's looking to be a 90s scorer which is very consistent with other talented HF types (Heeney, Butters, Zorko, Martin, etc), he's basically dropped to the point where he's priced fairly on those grounds and given his ability to score 120+ if he does go into the midfield I'm not sure you gain a lot.
To me makes a lot more sense to do your regular upgrades where you get a Jordon/Berry off the field to a premium and hope Kelly gets sorted out in the next 5 weeks. Sucks he has the first bye to not be able to leapfrog through there. Realistically Kelly as an upgrade is a very minimal return right now compared to alternatives and as long as he's fit he's always a chance of getting his role. Would only take a Ward/Hopper injury or two and he's basically got to be in the guts.
Also a case that when Coniglio, Whitfield, Hogan, De Boer, Lloyd and Perryman types do return that they don't see a need for him up forward anymore. It's very much worth noting that in rounds 1 and 2 and the first half of round 3 his role was actually very decent, not great, but decent, it wasn't until the Melbourne game where they lost both of Coniglio and De Boer (both play HF considerable amounts this year) that Kelly was sent forward. Now those guys are all out for extended periods but around the byes you'd expect most would be back and Kelly could be unleashed.
This is my absolute best effort at glass half full
Whitfield is a great ball user though, which increases the chances that Kelly gets hit when he's in space, they've got a lot of hackers and butchers in the team who just bomb long to their non-existent KP targets because they're crappy ball users (Ward, Hopper, Taranto and Daniels) when Kelly is often running to space on a wing or half forward.
Kelly's upside, especially if he moves clubs to somewhere that would use him and even more so if he goes to a club with a good medical staff, as a forward would be a lock if he's priced in the 90s next year. He'd be Dunkley this year.
Hardest thing with Kelly is how well he looks physically and knowing he's a role change from being a 120 scorer. As much as he's salvaged the last couple of weeks his one constant strength has always been endurance so you do expect him to finish games strongly, just be nice if he could score in the earlier parts so he could be putting a cherry on instead of saving.
Only reason to trade Kelly right now though is if you're fixing a massive hole elsewhere, I can understand him to fix Gawn/Grundy missing in your rucks, especially if Flynn is out, otherwise Kelly is a very sideways move right now. Reality is that in his current role he's looking to be a 90s scorer which is very consistent with other talented HF types (Heeney, Butters, Zorko, Martin, etc), he's basically dropped to the point where he's priced fairly on those grounds and given his ability to score 120+ if he does go into the midfield I'm not sure you gain a lot.
To me makes a lot more sense to do your regular upgrades where you get a Jordon/Berry off the field to a premium and hope Kelly gets sorted out in the next 5 weeks. Sucks he has the first bye to not be able to leapfrog through there. Realistically Kelly as an upgrade is a very minimal return right now compared to alternatives and as long as he's fit he's always a chance of getting his role. Would only take a Ward/Hopper injury or two and he's basically got to be in the guts.
Also a case that when Coniglio, Whitfield, Hogan, De Boer, Lloyd and Perryman types do return that they don't see a need for him up forward anymore. It's very much worth noting that in rounds 1 and 2 and the first half of round 3 his role was actually very decent, not great, but decent, it wasn't until the Melbourne game where they lost both of Coniglio and De Boer (both play HF considerable amounts this year) that Kelly was sent forward. Now those guys are all out for extended periods but around the byes you'd expect most would be back and Kelly could be unleashed.
This is my absolute best effort at glass half full
Kelly's upside, especially if he moves clubs to somewhere that would use him and even more so if he goes to a club with a good medical staff, as a forward would be a lock if he's priced in the 90s next year. He'd be Dunkley this year.
Hardest thing with Kelly is how well he looks physically and knowing he's a role change from being a 120 scorer. As much as he's salvaged the last couple of weeks his one constant strength has always been endurance so you do expect him to finish games strongly, just be nice if he could score in the earlier parts so he could be putting a cherry on instead of saving.
Only reason to trade Kelly right now though is if you're fixing a massive hole elsewhere, I can understand him to fix Gawn/Grundy missing in your rucks, especially if Flynn is out, otherwise Kelly is a very sideways move right now. Reality is that in his current role he's looking to be a 90s scorer which is very consistent with other talented HF types (Heeney, Butters, Zorko, Martin, etc), he's basically dropped to the point where he's priced fairly on those grounds and given his ability to score 120+ if he does go into the midfield I'm not sure you gain a lot.
To me makes a lot more sense to do your regular upgrades where you get a Jordon/Berry off the field to a premium and hope Kelly gets sorted out in the next 5 weeks. Sucks he has the first bye to not be able to leapfrog through there. Realistically Kelly as an upgrade is a very minimal return right now compared to alternatives and as long as he's fit he's always a chance of getting his role. Would only take a Ward/Hopper injury or two and he's basically got to be in the guts.
Also a case that when Coniglio, Whitfield, Hogan, De Boer, Lloyd and Perryman types do return that they don't see a need for him up forward anymore. It's very much worth noting that in rounds 1 and 2 and the first half of round 3 his role was actually very decent, not great, but decent, it wasn't until the Melbourne game where they lost both of Coniglio and De Boer (both play HF considerable amounts this year) that Kelly was sent forward. Now those guys are all out for extended periods but around the byes you'd expect most would be back and Kelly could be unleashed.
This is my absolute best effort at glass half full
You're quite right in that both Grundy and Gawn have just averaged more or less what they did in 2020 i.e. performed to their starting price. Of course there aren't many players that have the fantasy ceiling of those 2 dudes. This is an important consideration in a competition where you get a doubled player score each week of your choosing.
The Flynn R2 set-up had been working quite beautifully through the first 3 rounds. I went with this structure in both DT and AF (forgoing Grundy) and although Round 3 stung missing out on Grundy's 152 (DT) it had still been a success to that point.
It's just bloody Mummy showed up earlier than expected and not only wrecked Flynn but also Hickey along the way too.
If only Flynn got a run of the first 7 or 8 games then there wouldn't have been much of an issue. He would've made all his cash with good points onfield (for those who opted to go that route) and everyone would've been happy ... but sadly it didn't work out that way.
The Flynn R2 set-up had been working quite beautifully through the first 3 rounds. I went with this structure in both DT and AF (forgoing Grundy) and although Round 3 stung missing out on Grundy's 152 (DT) it had still been a success to that point.
It's just bloody Mummy showed up earlier than expected and not only wrecked Flynn but also Hickey along the way too.
If only Flynn got a run of the first 7 or 8 games then there wouldn't have been much of an issue. He would've made all his cash with good points onfield (for those who opted to go that route) and everyone would've been happy ... but sadly it didn't work out that way.
Oh no doubt those certainly helped but to write off a guy who does it pretty consistently because of his endurance base, basically he should score well late in games because that's his real time to shine. Converting it to goals is definitely a big bonus.
It's similar to Martin to be honest when he plays forward too much, it only takes a couple of his contested goals to save his score and realistically the best case for Kelly in this role is he can hold ground right now because he's not a very good forward at all (even his goals showed zero forward craft and were pure midfielder goals) but unless he crashes to the 70s there's no reason to be panic trading him right now.
It's similar to Martin to be honest when he plays forward too much, it only takes a couple of his contested goals to save his score and realistically the best case for Kelly in this role is he can hold ground right now because he's not a very good forward at all (even his goals showed zero forward craft and were pure midfielder goals) but unless he crashes to the 70s there's no reason to be panic trading him right now.
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How GWS use Whitfield from this point is anyone’s guess. My expectation as a Giants fan, is that he becomes the run and gun off half back because his 50m passes are amongst the best in the AFL. I espect this impacts Ash to a degree more than it impacts Kelly, who I can only assume has had some sort of injury (groin maybe?) to warrant the forward role he has had this season, as Kelly is flat out our best outside mid.
Cameron may decide differently however, and choose to run Whitfield as a pure outside mid which pretty much kills off Kelly owners hope for a recall to the midfield. Personally, I think he gets half back.
Cameron may decide differently however, and choose to run Whitfield as a pure outside mid which pretty much kills off Kelly owners hope for a recall to the midfield. Personally, I think he gets half back.
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I don't mind the look of Bolton at the price for now. It's a small data set, but I reckon he looks good for a relatively decent consistent scorer for an F6 or bench looper. (Possibly 85 to 110 points... but only if he plays midfield and not forward?) The telstra trackers show him dead centre in all games apart from the one game he sat forward and scored horridly. Hmm.
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Whitfield Position Algo
After putting it through the Leon Cameron algorithm and allowing for Kelly forward, play your best mid for 60% TOG, dont give the kid Flynn a go, play the oldest guy in the comp who is a mummy I get, allow for Whitfield slight build, injury live, I get.........tick Tok tick tock = RUCK!
After putting it through the Leon Cameron algorithm and allowing for Kelly forward, play your best mid for 60% TOG, dont give the kid Flynn a go, play the oldest guy in the comp who is a mummy I get, allow for Whitfield slight build, injury live, I get.........tick Tok tick tock = RUCK!
