Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Goodie's Guns]

Thanks for that reply to TBO, I was just about to ask a very similar question myself.
Sidebottom in my main midfield target, and with Rocky going down and a number of other issues I am trying to figure out what i'll do with my trades this week to firstly avoid a donut, but stick to my plan as much as possible. My plan involves waiting until round 13 to get Sidey, because my teams going to battle enough as it is through round 12.

I had also planned to avoid getting on Hamling early, but now looking at it I might well be required to get him this week to then have playing in DEF (Hamling vs. Hugh Goddard if selected) to avoid a donut which is not ideal.

Anyway here are the options I have come up with so far, if you get time to have a look I'd love your opinion.

Option 1
IN - Simpson, Hamling (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$398,400
* 2 of Hamling, KMac, Goddard (if selected) need to be on field, Amon on field in the MIDs

Option 2
Round 10
IN - Simpson, Wines
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$7,800
* Amon on bench, Hugh Goddard must play and be on field, no cover in DEF either

Option 3
IN - Simpson, Robinson (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$398,400
* JS issues with Robinson, play him or Amon, no DEF cover, require Hugh Goddard to play and be on field

Option 4
IN - Simpson, Boston (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$397,700
* Boston JS better than Robinson, howvever another round 12 donut, play him or Amon, no DEF cover, require Hugh Goddard to play and be on field


Sorry for it being so long, just needed to put it down to get my head around the options lol

Disregard this lol. Bennell out throws yet another spanner in the works.

Thoughts of Swan being a top 6 FWD?? Thinking of Rockliff to Swan, Oxley to Simpson.
Completes my FWD line (Bont will move to the MID this week, but once I trade Clark will move back to have 6 'premiums') and avoids donuts.

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

In previous years we have had a history of ruck carnage, this year they are generally all ok.

This year we seem to have premium carnage in defenders and the midfield lines.

Is there anything that you can see that has caused this or is it only the SuperCoach Gods (Not you Jay, Rowsus, Etc.) just keeping us on our toes?

Also:
1/. Is their any statistical history that shows more injuries in the first 11 rounds / last 11 rounds?
2/. If the current injury status was maintained over the entire 2015 season how many trades should we have remaining?
3/. Why is it that we create rules like limited 30+ year olds in teams, and picking players who have a history of durability, etc. and we still end up with numerous players falling over?

Regards,

CC

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, just wondering what are your thoughts on a certain Brent Harvey? Haven't seen much talk about him.
I know his age (37) may be an issue but is he playing a different role compared to last season?
Can you see him putting up numbers from here on that is worthy of a F6/M9 position? And how would you rate him in comparison to Dayne Zorko?
Thanks mate!

Hey MMM,
I rate Boomer, despite his age, and he's starting to get to his right price. I can see him averaging high 90's from here, and he's starting to a play a bit more of his traditional role. Early in the season they had him playing mainly behind centre, but he has started to push a bit more Fwd lately. Harvey is priced at 99, with a B/E of 116, Zorko is priced at 82 with a B/E of 92. I think Zorko is having a year more like 2013, than 2012 or 2014. Zorko might be a better points/dollar selection, but I'd be really surprised if he can beat Harvey on points scored from here, even with the difference in their draws.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hey MMM,
I rate Boomer, despite his age, and he's starting to get to his right price. I can see him averaging high 90's from here, and he's starting to a play a bit more of his traditional role. Early in the season they had him playing mainly behind centre, but he has started to push a bit more Fwd lately. Harvey is priced at 99, with a B/E of 116, Zorko is priced at 82 with a B/E of 92. I think Zorko is having a year more like 2013, than 2012 or 2014. Zorko might be a better points/dollar selection, but I'd be really surprised if he can beat Harvey on points scored from here, even with the difference in their draws.

Thanks mate for your thoughts.
I had Zorko last season and he was really too erratic for my liking, had headaches week in week out so I prefer to fork out a little more for someone more proven like Harvey.
North don't have the best draw but he's in only 3.6% of teams, looks like a nice POD to have.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Hope you can get back to me prior to lockout.
Once again I have copped it with Rocky. Thats twice this season
Yes I think he has to go but he will not lose cash this week. I also have Oxley and Miller who will now start to leak cash.
How do you see Oxley and Miller from here? Do you think Oxley just had a bad week last week? Miller now has a tough run.
Both though have done ok up untill now and made us cash.
If I offload both Oxley and Miller this week for Hamling and Lewis then it becomes risky with no mid and def bench cover.
However getting rid of Krak and Rocky I keep cover although Oxley and Miller will leak cash.
I guess having bench cover (avoiding donut) is better than Oxley and Miller leaking a little cash.
Could also offload Clark instead of Krak so I keep my mid/fwd link.
It looks like my bye round 12 is the one where I will struggle hence the reason I am looking at Lewis but still not sold on him (but who else is there - Any suggestions)

cheers Slammer

Hey Slammer,
I wouldn't be too fussed about cover. If you have 22 named starters, then that's pretty good this week, and you should make the best trades you can, trusting that the named players actually play. I'm not a big Lewis fan either, I must admit, and would probably prefer Beams or Danger as Rnd 11 Mids. Both of those obviously cost a bit more, so Lewis may be your solution.
You're obviously aware of the danger of getting Hamling. I'm not convinced his JS is great, but there are so few downgrade targets!I think Oxley should go. A B/E of 98, and his next B/E is roughly 196 - this weeks score, if he plays. Miller too, should probably go. Damn the cover, trade like they'll play, I say.
Good luck

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. Thanks heaps for your advice lately. I think I have settled on my trades this week:

Oxley > Yeo - yes, would love Hodge but he is pricey and Yeo suits my bye structure better than a round 11 bye player. I just hope he can maintain a decent average.

Miller > Wines - I think I will hold onto Rocky for now and hope he's back in round 14. Would be ideal as it means not having to try to get another premo in. Can wait for more information too - if it looks like I'm going to struggle to hold him I can always reassess in round 12 as at least he will hold his value.

Good luck this week!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for that reply to TBO, I was just about to ask a very similar question myself.
Sidebottom in my main midfield target, and with Rocky going down and a number of other issues I am trying to figure out what i'll do with my trades this week to firstly avoid a donut, but stick to my plan as much as possible. My plan involves waiting until round 13 to get Sidey, because my teams going to battle enough as it is through round 12.

I had also planned to avoid getting on Hamling early, but now looking at it I might well be required to get him this week to then have playing in DEF (Hamling vs. Hugh Goddard if selected) to avoid a donut which is not ideal.

Anyway here are the options I have come up with so far, if you get time to have a look I'd love your opinion.

Option 1
IN - Simpson, Hamling (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$398,400
* 2 of Hamling, KMac, Goddard (if selected) need to be on field, Amon on field in the MIDs

Option 2
Round 10
IN - Simpson, Wines
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$7,800
* Amon on bench, Hugh Goddard must play and be on field, no cover in DEF either

Option 3
IN - Simpson, Robinson (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$398,400
* JS issues with Robinson, play him or Amon, no DEF cover, require Hugh Goddard to play and be on field

Option 4
IN - Simpson, Boston (via McKenzie DPP)
OUT - Oxley, Rockliff
$397,700
* Boston JS better than Robinson, howvever another round 12 donut, play him or Amon, no DEF cover, require Hugh Goddard to play and be on field


Sorry for it being so long, just needed to put it down to get my head around the options lol

Disregard this lol. Bennell out throws yet another spanner in the works.

Thoughts of Swan being a top 6 FWD?? Thinking of Rockliff to Swan, Oxley to Simpson.
Completes my FWD line (Bont will move to the MID this week, but once I trade Clark will move back to have 6 'premiums') and avoids donuts.

Hey Goodie,
I wouldn't say Swan is a certainty to be a top 6 Fwd from here, but I would rate him a very good chance to be. Having said that, there aren't too many I would count as certainties, in Def or Fwd to be top scorers from here!

 

[MrMurdoch]

Rowsus, have you made up your mind on who to bring in (Taylor, ZOB, Dumont) ?

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

In previous years we have had a history of ruck carnage, this year they are generally all ok.

This year we seem to have premium carnage in defenders and the midfield lines.

Is there anything that you can see that has caused this or is it only the SuperCoach Gods (Not you Jay, Rowsus, Etc.) just keeping us on our toes?

Also:
1/. Is their any statistical history that shows more injuries in the first 11 rounds / last 11 rounds?
2/. If the current injury status was maintained over the entire 2015 season how many trades should we have remaining?
3/. Why is it that we create rules like limited 30+ year olds in teams, and picking players who have a history of durability, etc. and we still end up with numerous players falling over?

Regards,

CC

Hi CC,
there is nothing in particular, that I can say is causing these injuries. The Clubs all flagged the possibility of more injuries with a capped interchange, but the AFL boffins were actually saying it would have the opposite effect. To me, tired players are more likely to get injured, and a capped interchange makes for more tired players.
The Ruck carnage will come, it really is when, not if. As to the Def and Mid injuries, there may be a few more here and there this season, but it's not statistically out of what was expected. The Def line in particular was hard to nail down this season, that made for more players being SC relevent, and more noticeable injuries, as there were more "relevent" players getting injured. Even the drop off of some of the Mid staple Prems from previous years has made the pool of players we are looking at, and using, bigger, so once Again, the injuries are more under our scrutiny.
I have no data on first half season/second half season injuries, but logic suggest there should be more in the second half of the season. More niggles accumulate, and become enough to tip a player out.
At the current rate of injury, you probably want/need around 24-25 trades left! We don't have that, so I strongly suggest to people, don't trade just to avoid a Rookie donut!!!! Your trade will have much more value than the 60 points you are "saving" this week, later in the season!!!!
Those 30 year old players, and reliable/resilient player thoughts still apply, and you are much better picking a 26 year old who hasn't missed a game in the last 3 seasons, than someone who has missed 4 games each of the past 3 seasons, or someone that is 31 or 32 years old. That is a general thing, and there will always be exceptions, but it will Work in your favour most of the time.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, have you made up your mind on who to bring in (Taylor, ZOB, Dumont) ?

MrM, at this point in time it will be ZOB. The price difference between him and Taylor tipping the scales in his favour. I'm not convinced on Dumont, that we aren't getting seduced by 1.5 quarters of good football.

 

[The Experiment]

Hi Rowsus, what are your thoughts on Easton Wood? Averaging 98 over his last 5 and 92 for the season, 3rd in the comp in intercept marks, seems fit...anything to suggest he can keep it up?

Priced okay at 456k...

Thanks in advance

 

[Lukus193]

Hey Rowsus, appreciate all your responses - a huge effort!!

I'm considering taking a punt on my forward line this week.

Would love your thoughts on Jack Ziebell and Nick Riewoldt.

Both have sub effected scores that have brought their prices down.

Both are capable of good scoring, based on history.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, what are your thoughts on Easton Wood? Averaging 98 over his last 5 and 92 for the season, 3rd in the comp in intercept marks, seems fit...anything to suggest he can keep it up?

Priced okay at 456k...

Thanks in advance

Hi TE,
He's a surprise packet, that's for sure. I would think the 92 is more like his true form, rather than the 98. He's possibly worth the risk, but I wouldn't want to pay much more for him, than he is now.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, appreciate all your responses - a huge effort!!

I'm considering taking a punt on my forward line this week.

Would love your thoughts on Jack Ziebell and Nick Riewoldt.

Both have sub effected scores that have brought their prices down.

Both are capable of good scoring, based on history.

Hey Lukus,
JZ is very up and down, and misses a lot of games. Those that got him cheap have probably done ok, but he's not for me.

Here's what I said about NRoo earlier in the week.

NRoo's leg's get a bit weary, the more games he plays. Then add in this little analysis:
2013 - Wins 4 / SC ave 145 - Losses 18 / SC ave 80
2014 - Wins 3 / SC ave 101 - Losses 1 / SC score 89 - does not include Rnd 7 concussion game.
It looks like he needs to play in too many winning games to score well enough. He looks good value on a points/dollar basis, but I'm not sure he will be the 95+/game player you might need him to be from here.

 

[anfa18]

Hi TE,
He's a surprise packet, that's for sure. I would think the 92 is more like his true form, rather than the 98. He's possibly worth the risk, but I wouldn't want to pay much more for him, than he is now.

Expanding on that, who do you think will be a better POD keeper out of Wood, Yeo, McGovern and Docherty? or is there another player under 500k i should be looking at?

 

[Lukus193]

Hey Lukus,
JZ is very up and down, and misses a lot of games. Those that got him cheap have probably done ok, but he's not for me.

Here's what I said about NRoo earlier in the week.

Cheers mate - back to the drawing board!!

 

[Rowsus]

Expanding on that, who do you think will be a better POD keeper out of Wood, Yeo, McGovern and Docherty? or is there another player under 500k i should be looking at?

Wood would be the biggest POD, but the least likely to achieve a worthwhile Keeper status.
Yeo's ownership will rise this week to about 8% (?)
McG is already at about 6.2%, and might get to 7% this week.
Docherty is in 5.5% of teams, but Carlton are really struggling.
None of them are even 80% to achieve top 6 to 8 Defs from here, but forced to pick one, I'd go Yeo.

 

[Lukus193]

Love to know your views on Westhoff too.

Port will come good in my opinion.

 

[Bobbie]

Wood would be the biggest POD, but the least likely to achieve a worthwhile Keeper status.
Yeo's ownership will rise this week to about 8% (?)
McG is already at about 6.2%, and might get to 7% this week.
Docherty is in 5.5% of teams, but Carlton are really struggling.
None of them are even 80% to achieve top 6 to 8 Defs from here, but forced to pick one, I'd go Yeo.

Who do you see as the top defenders from here?

 

[minidee]

How do I avoid MJ's -2. I have $251k in the kitty. Thanks